MLB Over/Unders
Another year, another round of Regular Season Win Totals. We are a little over 48 hours out from first pitch in Queens, so these lines are essentially concrete. Now I missed the Dodgers and Padres because of their Korea adventure but Ill see if over the next couple days we can figure something out there. First things first, the numbers…as always, heavy juice noted…
Arizona D’backs – 84.5
Atlanta Braves – 101.5
Baltimore Orioles – 90.5
Boston Red Sox – 77.5
Chicago Cubs – 84.5
Chicago White Sox – 61.5
Cincinnati Reds – 82.5
Cleveland Guardians – 80.5
Colorado Rockies – 60.5
Detroit Tigers – 81.5
Houston Astros – 92.5
KC Royals – 73.5 (O -130)
LA Angels – 71.5
LA Dodgers –
Miami Marlins – 77.5 (U -130)
Milwaukee Brewers – 77.5
Minnesota Twins – 86.5
NY Mets – 81.5
NY Yankees – 92.5
Oakland A’s – 57.5 (O -130)
Philadelphia Phillies – 90.5
Pittsburgh Pirates – 76.5
SD Padres –
SF Giants – 84.5
Seattle Mariners – 87.5
St Louis Cards – 84.5
TB Rays – 85.5
Texas Rangers – 88.5
Toronto Blue Jays – 87.5
Washington Nationals – 66.5
How far we have come…in years past Vegas would pick out a very likely shitty team, boost up its win total by a tick and then throw (U -155) juice at you. But now only a handful of (-130s)…I can tell a lot of my action this year will be NC Central themed. Back in a day or 2 with the picks…
Super Bowl LVIII Props ‘n Plays
Super Bowl in Las Vegas…time for some props!
Christian McCaffrey Receptions OVER 4.5 -136
Been hammering this one all playoffs; can also see it hitting with KC’s good secondary and Purdy will be checking down a lot.
Christian McCaffrey (-334) and Travis Kelce (-126) to score Touchdown +135
Parlaying both with these TD machines.
Brock Purdy Rushing Yards OVER 13.5 -114
He scrambled well in the playoff games previous, and probably will have to move as KC secondary will make him hold the ball longer than usual to get him to move.
Will there be a Missed Field Goal by SF Kicker Jake Moody – YES +240
He’s been shaky all year.
Isiah Pacheco Carries OVER 16.5 -104
He should get the ball in this game, even with McKinnon coming back.
Will there be a Successful 2-PT Conversion Attempt in the Game? YES +240
Everybody’s going for 2 these days
Brock Purdy Interceptions OVER 0.5 -157
Purdy also probably has the most dropped INTs I have seen this year.
First to Score TD: Kelce +600, Pacheco +600, Purdy +3000, Kyle Juszczyk +3500
First Offensive Play of Game – Pass +120
GAME PICK:
Chiefs +2 -105
Also teasing with the OVER 47.5. Shanahan’s shaky record in big games, especially in the 4th quarter, KC having the edge at QB, and could be Andy Reid’s last game. I’d also say, if you are taking Travis Kelce to propose to Taylor Swift after the game (+820), parlay that with KC ML for maximum value.
Championship Weekend
Ravens -3* -115
Now at -4…. Mahomes is amazing but I think the lack of WRs catches (no pun intended) up to him today. The Chiefs also lose OL Thuney which will be huge against a very good Ravens front 7 that Mahomes will be running away from a lot today. Ravens also get back CB Marlon Humphrey and TE Mark Andrews. Lou likes the UNDER 44 in this one. I just hope Harbaugh doesn’t fuck this up with some wacky game decision. Props: Mark Andrews Receptions OVER 3.5 +127 and Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards OVER 29.5 -120.
San Francisco -7
Not taking the line because it’s too big on both sides and we know how Detroit games go…but I do like the OVER at 51.5 -110* as here should be points in this one. Props I like: Jared Goff INT OVER 0.5 -152, Deebo Samuel Rushing Yards UNDER 9.5 -114, and Christian McCaffrey Receptions OVER 4.5 -137.
TEASER +170: KC +4, KC/BAL UNDER 44, SF -7.5, SF/DET OVER 51.5
NFL Divisional Round pt 2
Tampa Bay +6.5 -110*
Now at 6. I hate betting ON the Lions… and hate betting against them too. Tampa should keep it close with their defense, but their undoing could be the red zone offense so also taking FG OVER 3.5 Prop +104.
Buffalo -2.5 -110
This is another tough game to bet. Should be a defensive back and forth. I do like Rashee Rice Receptions OVER 6.5 -105 and Dalton Kincaid Receptions OVER 4.5 +105.
Divisional Round pt 1
Houston +9.5 (-105)*
The Ravens come into the playoffs as the hottest team in football… but they always seem to find ways to keep teams close in these big games. Harbaugh also doesn’t always make the best game decisions. Stroud has looked like he should of been the #1 pick, and the Texans have also drafted well around him. If the Texans can stop the run, they will have a chance in this game.
San Francisco -9.5 (-110)*
Shanahan owns Lafleur head to head, and I think as good as Jordan Love has played, he’ll not has as many opportunities off play action as he did against Dallas as I am sure the 49ers aren’t gonna have two down lineman like the Cowboys did for most of the game letting Aaron Jones run wild. I also have for a prop: Brandon Aiyuk +120 for ANYTIME TD* and Christian McCaffrey Receptions OVER 4.5 +102*.
Wild Card Weekend pt 3
Steelers +10 -115*
We also have the UNDER at 38.5 -110*… and that was BEFORE the big snow storm which cancelled the game (and where the total went down to 35). The Bills have played well in their resurgence, but they keep teams around due to bad turnovers from Josh Allen as well as giving up big plays on defense at times. The Bills one minute look like a Super Bowl team; the next, you think “how did they get here?”. They have run the ball better with some RB depth which helps Allen not have to rely on his arm so much. Tomlin’s guile will keep his team hanging around and the weather will help their banged up defense. For props: Jaylen Warren Receptions OVER 3.5 +104*, Dalton Kincaid Receptions OVER 5.5 +129*, Total FG Made OVER 3.5 +140*.
Philadelphia -3 -115
Seems like everybody on television is picking Tampa Bay; Philly limped into the playoffs and come into this game banged up but this Bucs team is also a fairly underwhelming side that only won because they are in the NFC South. I also expect a lot of Philly fans at this game. For props: Cade Otton ANYTIME TD +300*, Jalen Hurts Rushing Yards UNDER +100*, Dallas Goedert Receptions OVER 4.5 -164*.
Wild Card Weekend pt 2
Packers +7 -105*
The Cowboys have had a great season and should wipe the floor with the Packers… but it’s the Cowboys and Mike McCarthy will find a way to fuck this up and either keep it close or choke all together. Interesting that 2/3rds of both money and handle on Dallas yet the line went down… only the Cowboys. For props, I have Dak Prescott INT OVER 0.5 -106* and Jayden Reed Receptions AT LEAST 5 +112*.
Rams +3 -105
Another tough game to call; we do like the OVER at 51 -110* as there will be points in this game with both QBs of former teams motivated to ball out. For props, I like Jared Goff INT OVER 0.5 +100*, Cooper Kupp Receptions OVER 6.5 +106*, and Tyler Higbee ANYTIME TD +300*.
Wild Card Weekend Pt 1
Won’t bet every spread/game, but we’ll try to go perfect against the spread and see how we do. All of our actual bets will have a * next to them (like props);
Cleveland -2 -115
This is the toughest game to handicap this weekend. Cleveland better defense and running game, but I think Houston has better WRs/QB and Coach. I will say I hope Flacco makes a run and totally makes the Deshaun Watson situation look worse by the game. Props I like: Kareem Hunt Anytime TD +160*, David Njoku Anytime TD +150*, C.J. Stroud Pass Completions OVER 23 +102*.
Miami +5 -110
We’ve been giddy to bet the Dolphins in the playoffs all year as they have yet to beat anyone good this year… but the banged up Dolphins draw the KC Chiefs, who have been experts at keeping teams close in games this year (mostly due to their WRs dropping the ball), especially in the 2nd half at home (2H UNDERs are 7-1 in KC this year). I do like the UNDER at 44.5* (now at 43) as it’s going to be cold af in KC with wind chill and all of that; it feels like this was the first year KC UNDERs hit at home more than OVER since the Alex Smith era. If you really like Miami this game, take the running game OVER props and they will need to run the ball well to win. Props: Patrick Mahomes OVER 27.5 Rushing Yards*, Devon Achane Rushing yards OVER 18 -110*, Tyreek Hill ANYTIME TD +129*, Patrick Mahomes INT OVER 0.5 -108*. The Tua INT OVER looks good too, but -136 is too high especially since Miami may run the shit out of the ball in this game.
Week 18 NFL
NY Jets at New England UNDER 33 -115
Now at 29.5, the lowest since 1993. Apparently, sickness going around in NE locker room. Snow/rain mix today in NE, along with two shitty offenses. Unsure if they win one for Bill’s last game against the hated Jets.
Cleveland at Cincinnati UNDER 37.5 -110
Cleveland playing all their backups today. These two teams will run the ball and try to get out of dodge in under 2.5 hours.
Atlanta +3.5 -115
Now at +3. Should be a close game as it always is in this darby.
Tennessee +3.5 -125
Now at +3. Jacksonville, with backup B most likely, needs win for playoffs. I can see them fucking this up. Also could be Vrabel’s last game in Nashville.
Chicago at Green Bay OVER 44.5
Now at 45.5. Both QBs playing well, defenses are meh, and Chicago motivated to knock GB out of playoffs.
PROPS: It’s incentive week! Some of these aren’t posted yet and only do so a half hour before game.Although starting off taking our prop we always do in December: Derrick Henry TDs OVER 0.5 -112.
DeAndre Hopkins Receptions OVER 7 +102 and Receiving Yards OVER 67 -102
He needs 7 catches and 49 yards for a $250k/$1m bonus. There is also a 100 yards + OVER 6 catch parlay for +219.
Baker Mayfield completions OVER 19.5 -124
Needs high passer rating to hit a bonus. Also against shitty Carolina defense in a game they need to win.
Josh Reynolds TDs OVER 0.5 +260
He needs one for a $250k bonus.
Leonard Floyd Sacks OVER 0.5 +124
Needs at least 1 for bonus, and 3 for $2m bonus.
TEASER +165: ATL +3.5, TEN +3.5, ATL/NO UNDER 42, MIA +3
DFS:
Week 17 NFL
Las Vegas +4 -110
Riding the Raiders… they’ve been competitive under the new coach
Philadelphia -13 -18
Eagles are struggling (in Joe Namath voice) but they should dust this team.
Bengals at Chiefs UNDER 46.5 -110
Weird how Chiefs HOME UNDERS have been crushing it this year
PARLAY +301
BUF ML -1100, SF ML -1200, BAL ML -170, PHI ML -750, LV +4
TEASER +150: CAR +4, LV +4, KC -7
PROPS: CHI/ATL TOTAL FG OVER 3.5 -105; Derrick Henry TD OVER 0.5 -143
DFS:
