Premier Totals
Lets see how these look. We will make -140 our random point to denote heavy juice.
Man City – 90.5
Liverpool – 83.5 (O -207)
Tottenham – 74.5 (U -155)
Chelsea – 68.5 (U -155)
Man Utd – 67.5 (O -155)
Arsenal – 70.5
Leicester – 52.5
Wolves – 52.5 (U -186)
Everton – 52.5
West Ham – 46.5 (O -200)
Watford – 43.5
Newcastle – 43.5 (U -290)
Crystal Palace – 45.5 (U -171)
Bournemouth – 42.5
Southampton – 41.5 (O -152)
Burnley – 38.5
Brighton – 38.5
Norwich – 34.5
Sheffield – 33.5
Aston Villa – 33.5 (O -235)
The Books have learned from their Leicester lunacy a few years back. Aston Villa/Sheffield/etc., or who we can dub “The Regulators” come in at 500:1 these days, not the 5,000:1 prices they got burned on. The juice on the Newcastle Under is glorious, no one likes Mike Ashley.
Pacquiao vs Thurman and UFC San Antonio
UFC San Antonio:
Juan Adams -115
I hope he launches Greg Hardy into the next dimension
Pacquiao vs Thurman:
Fight Goes the Distance – Yes @ -350
Pacquiao wins in a decision +110
Pacquiao is just trying to rack up the wins to force a second Mayweather fight (who also may need it himself because there are rumors he’s running out of money…again), he has gone the distance 8 out of the last 10 times. Thurman used to be a bruiser but his last 5 fights have gone to decision and he’s lost a bit of power in age. This should be an interesting fight and an interesting scorecard, but I like Manny in a decision.
The Warriors Game 6
Warriors -2.5 (-105)
They are coming home for Game 6 down 3-2….I always take the home team in a series in this spot. We alsohave the Warriors to win the series (-105), so hopefully they take it down and we get to bet Toronto Game 7 hedge ML.
Belmont Stakes, UFC 238, MLB
MLB:
Cubs vs Cards OVER 7.5 (EVEN)
Belmont Stakes:
Sir Winston 12/1
War of Will 2/1
UFC 238:
Tatiana Suarez Wins by Inside Distance -140
Tony Ferguson wins by submission +480
PARLAY BOXING + UFC (-277):
Tatiana Suarez (-750)
Valentina Shevchenko (-1100)
Gennady Golovkin (-3500)
Robson Conceicao (-5000)
Ali Akhmedov (-3500)
Israil Madrimov (-5000)
Championship Saturday
ECL Final:
Spurs v Liverpool Draw +275
First to score# Moura +800, Son +675
Stanley Cup Final:
Bruins at Blues UNDER 5 +125
Kentucky Derby, Canelo vs Jacobs thoughts
Kentucky Derby:
To win: Game Winner (5/1)
To win: Cutting Humor 30-1
Canelo vs Jacobs:
Fight Rounds OVER 10.5 @ -250
This should be a fun fight; these guys went at each other in the weigh-ins yesterday but both are durable, tough guys who are itching to be the best pound-for-pound middleweight in a 12 round classic. The “Fight Goes the Distance” prop is at -230 not far off from the OVER so I took a little more juice just in case of a late flurry KO. I do like Canelo in a decision as the fight is in Vegas on Cinco De Mayo so he’ll have the home crowd.
UFC OTTAWA:
DEREK BRUNSON VS ELIAS THEODOROU – Fight Goes the Distance – YES @ -200
Brad Katona +145
Quick Note on MLS Lines
Check out these lines for MLS this weekend. The similarities are fairly amazing, with the outliers being NE vs Red Bulls and San Jose vs Sporting KC. I am not sure if this is a schedule quirk, or lazy line-making, or whatever. Kind of amazing.
| (-126) |
| (+331) |
| (+308) |
| (-163) |
| (+416) |
| (+348) |
| (-127) |
| (+343) |
| (+299) |
| (-138) |
| (+404) |
| (+288) |
| (-165) |
| (+458) |
| (+325) |
| (-165) |
| (+450) |
| (+329) |
| (-171) |
| (+494) |
| (+320) |
| (-159) |
| (+448) |
| (+316) |
| (+148) |
| (+191) |
| (+252) |
| (+268) |
| (-103) |
| (+294) |
| (-101) |
| (+302) |
| (+253) |
| (-132) |
| (+355) |
| (+306) |
MLB Over/Unders
Normally do 10 of these guys, but Im going to just go with a few this year. Change is good, maybe 28 or 29 next year. Will update with any more that strike fancy before respective first pitches.
Twins Over 83.5 – The AL Central is looking borderline brutal these days. Salvador Perez needing TJ surg would seem to encapsulate this division well. Minnesota will continue to miss Eduardo Escobar but this roster looks entirely competent amidst a sea of mediocrity. Team almost won 80 games last year with Buxton production less than zero. Genuinely like Mejia and Perez in bullpen ready to help out. Also I do not know this for fact at all, but I would put money on Baldelli being a better game manager and players coach than Molitor.
Astros Under 96.5 – We hit on the Astros Over last year because they were seemingly a team devoid of weaknesses. IMO this cannot be said this year, especially re: pitching. Outside of Cole I trust no one in this rotation. Verlander turned 36 in February and simply cannot be counted on to replicate his stats of the previous year and a half. No McCullers and no Morton = Miley, Peacock, and McHugh. Not impressive. Reddick managed to hit .242 in that lineup last year? I think hes about done. Chirinos sexy but likely overrated.
NCAA Sunday
Iowa +8 (-110)
TEASER: Oklahoma +10.5 and OVER 126 (EVEN)
PARLAY +125:
Duke ML -1300
Texas Tech ML -175
UNC ML -900
Houston ML -275
