Kentucky Derby, Canelo vs Jacobs thoughts
Kentucky Derby:
To win: Game Winner (5/1)
To win: Cutting Humor 30-1
Canelo vs Jacobs:
Fight Rounds OVER 10.5 @ -250
This should be a fun fight; these guys went at each other in the weigh-ins yesterday but both are durable, tough guys who are itching to be the best pound-for-pound middleweight in a 12 round classic. The “Fight Goes the Distance” prop is at -230 not far off from the OVER so I took a little more juice just in case of a late flurry KO. I do like Canelo in a decision as the fight is in Vegas on Cinco De Mayo so he’ll have the home crowd.
UFC OTTAWA:
DEREK BRUNSON VS ELIAS THEODOROU – Fight Goes the Distance – YES @ -200
Brad Katona +145
Quick Note on MLS Lines
Check out these lines for MLS this weekend. The similarities are fairly amazing, with the outliers being NE vs Red Bulls and San Jose vs Sporting KC. I am not sure if this is a schedule quirk, or lazy line-making, or whatever. Kind of amazing.
| (-126) |
| (+331) |
| (+308) |
| (-163) |
| (+416) |
| (+348) |
| (-127) |
| (+343) |
| (+299) |
| (-138) |
| (+404) |
| (+288) |
| (-165) |
| (+458) |
| (+325) |
| (-165) |
| (+450) |
| (+329) |
| (-171) |
| (+494) |
| (+320) |
| (-159) |
| (+448) |
| (+316) |
| (+148) |
| (+191) |
| (+252) |
| (+268) |
| (-103) |
| (+294) |
| (-101) |
| (+302) |
| (+253) |
| (-132) |
| (+355) |
| (+306) |
MLB Over/Unders
Normally do 10 of these guys, but Im going to just go with a few this year. Change is good, maybe 28 or 29 next year. Will update with any more that strike fancy before respective first pitches.
Twins Over 83.5 – The AL Central is looking borderline brutal these days. Salvador Perez needing TJ surg would seem to encapsulate this division well. Minnesota will continue to miss Eduardo Escobar but this roster looks entirely competent amidst a sea of mediocrity. Team almost won 80 games last year with Buxton production less than zero. Genuinely like Mejia and Perez in bullpen ready to help out. Also I do not know this for fact at all, but I would put money on Baldelli being a better game manager and players coach than Molitor.
Astros Under 96.5 – We hit on the Astros Over last year because they were seemingly a team devoid of weaknesses. IMO this cannot be said this year, especially re: pitching. Outside of Cole I trust no one in this rotation. Verlander turned 36 in February and simply cannot be counted on to replicate his stats of the previous year and a half. No McCullers and no Morton = Miley, Peacock, and McHugh. Not impressive. Reddick managed to hit .242 in that lineup last year? I think hes about done. Chirinos sexy but likely overrated.
NCAA Sunday
Iowa +8 (-110)
TEASER: Oklahoma +10.5 and OVER 126 (EVEN)
PARLAY +125:
Duke ML -1300
Texas Tech ML -175
UNC ML -900
Houston ML -275
Student Athletes/Gambling
My apologies if this is not an original idea. I noticed that some states considering legalizing sports gambling are drawing the line at college sports. You would be allowed to gamble on an NBA game, but not an NCAA game. An idea in the “Should student athletes get paid” conversation, whatever non-professional sport events/activities a state deems “gambling worthy,” the participants in that event/activity are eligible to receive a fraction of the revenue generated from wagers made at authorized Books on that event. That fraction of revenue gets divided among athletes attending institutions from states where that activity is “gambleable.”
You could do it as a percentage of money taken in on the event by the Books, or charge the gambler a small tax with any bet. You would not make it tied to how much the Book won or lost on the event as obviously this would have shaving implications. This would be a federal statute that once a state permits gambling on a specific non-professional athletic event, this tax or juice would have to be incorporated. This would maintain the power of the legislature in deciding which events are gambling permissible, it would add zero costs to schools/universities, and it would be a legalized, supervisable way to pay athletes. This would also solve the dilemma “does the backup center for Bucknell get paid the same as Johnny Manziel.” Answer, he does, if his game generates as much gambling action as Manziel’s (It will not).
Who among us hasnt kicked back with a beverage on a mid-Summer afternoon and gambled on a Little League World Series game? If a state deems it worthy that a Little League game was “gambleable,” then yes, a portion of those wagers would be divided among those athletes.
Alabama plays UCLA in NCAAF. Alabama has decided gambling on NCAAF is not permitted. California has decided it is permitted. The tax or juice collected from legal bets made at registered books on the event throughout the United States are divided among the UCLA athletes.
NCAA March Madness Friday
Iowa ML +165
Colgate ML +1175
UNC -23 (-105)
Oregon vs Wisconsin OVER 116 (-110)
Northern Kentucky +13 (-115)
NCAA March Madness Thursday
It’s here! Let the degeneracy begin! I will also be posting live plays on my twitter feed as well.
Minnesota +5
FSU vs Vermont UNDER 134 (-110)
Murray St ML +145
TEASER (+180 4 pt):
Kansas -6.5
LSU -7
Michigan -15.5
PARLAY (-130):
Michigan State -3500
Michigan -1550
Kansas -290
LSU -320
野球
MLB is making us hustle this year on Over/Unders. Just the #s for now. What immediately strikes me is the lack of significant juice in many of these. Anything -125 or higher noted.
Arizona Diamondbacks : 75.5
Atlanta Braves : 86.5 (O -136)
Baltimore Orioles : 58.5
Boston Red Sox : 94.5
Chicago Cubs : 87.5
Chicago White Sox : 73.5
Cincinnati Reds : 78.5 (O -131)
Cleveland Indians : 90.5 (O -125)
Colorado Rockies : 84.5
Detroit Tigers : 68.5
Houston Astros : 96.5
Kansas City Royals : 69.5 (U -125)
Los Angeles Angels : 81.5 (O -136)
Los Angeles Dodgers : 93.5
Miami Marlins : 63.5 (U -135)
Milwaukee Brewers : 86.5
Minnesota Twins : 83.5 (O -133)
New York Mets : 85.5
New York Yankees : 96.5 (O -129)
Oakland A’s : 83.5
Philadelphia Phillies : 89.5
Pittsburgh Pirates : 77.5 (O -133)
San Diego Padres : 78.5 (U -126)
San Francisco Giants : 73.5
St Louis Cardinals : 88.5
Seattle Mariners : 71.5 (O -147)
Tampa Bay Rays : 84.5
Texas Rangers : 71.5 (U -126)
Toronto Blue Jays : 75.5 (U -150)
Washington Nationals : 88.5 (O -137)
Saturday St. Pattys Warm Up
NCAA is next week! The most wondering degen time of year!
A few plays for today:
UFC:
Till vs Masvidal – Fight Will Go the Distance – Yes @ -120
Boxing:
Spence vs Garcia – Fight Will Go the Distance – Yes @ -120
This should be a good 12 round war between two of the best boxers today. Watch it.
AAF Special:
Memphis at Salt Lake City UNDER 40 -110
Rios vs Soto and an AAF play
Rios vs Soto OVER Rounds 9.5 @ -166
AAF:
San Antonio Commanders at San Diego Fleet UNDER 43.5 (-115)
Have been doing well betting AAF UNDERS so far…..the only ones I have bet over on are the games Steve Spurrier is involved in. He’s calling double reverse passes on the 2nd down of game clock killing drives..it’s fun stuff. Also, Christian Hackenberg is a QB (Memphis), and yeah, he sucks.
