MLB Season O/Us Heading to Final Week…
And now an update from the 2-man draft Van and I did. Let’s see how things are going…If a pick is in red it has already failed, if its green it has hit…in blue means things are still ‘up in the air’ With one week of action remaining the set records are…VT – 5-8, PD – 6-4. There are 7 still open… *UP* VT – 6-9, PD 8-7.
PD – SFG o84.5
VT – O’s o90.5 – BAL has fallen-off late. Need a 5-1 finish for this to hit….*UP* Over Hits
VT – DET u81.5
PD – StL u84.5 – Hasnt hit yet but they would need to go undefeated for this to miss. Likely W…*UP* Under Hits
PD – SD u83.5 – A dominant 2nd half took a coin-flip to an L
VT – LAA u71.5
VT – MIA u77.5 – Strong, smart picks here
PD – WSH o66.5
PD – PIT o76.5 – PIT needs to go 4-2 for this to hit…*UP* Over Misses
VT – ATL o101.5 – No luck with this one
VT – HOU o92.5 – Im glad this wont hit more for humanity
PD – TOR u87.5 – This was always hitting
PD – A’s o57.5 – Easy
VT – CWS u61.5 – Very good
VT – TB o85.5
PD – BOS o77.5
PD – NYY u92.5 – This will be a L, just need to win once in last week *UP* Under Misses
VT – COL u60.5 – Likely L, same with NYY. 1 W gets them Over *UP* Under Misses
VT – CIN u82.5
PD – CHC u84.5 – Likely W, need to go 5-1 for Over *UP* Under Hits
PD – ARZ o84.5
VT – TEX o88.5 – Never a prayer
VT – MIL u77.5 – I liked this pick when VT made it and likely would have made it next. Not close
PD – PHI u90.5
PD – CLE u80.5 – Awful stretch picks for both of us. Tbf these are the scraps at this pt…
VT – KC o73.5 – Excellent and brave pick. KC demolishes LYs W total and covers easy here
VT – SEA o87.5
PD – MIN o86.5 – 1 L makes this a Loss *UP* Over Misses
PD – NYM o81.5
VT – LAD o103.5
Week 3 NFL
Tampa Bay -6 -110
I am just hedging vs Bo Nix at this point, who has been the 2nd worst QB in football, on my Denver OVER 5.5 season bet. Will also say, Tampa’s defense looked pretty good vs Detroit last week.
SF at LA Rams UNDER -110
Both teams heavily banged up on offense, and essentially a road game for the Rams at home vs the public 49ers.
Ravens -1 -115
Must win for Baltimore today.
TEASER +150: TB -6, LV -5.5, SEA -5
PARLAY +410: SEA ML -220, LV ML -260, TB ML -270, SF at LAR UNDER 44 -110
PROPS: Bo Nix Completions UNDER 18.5 +108; Caleb Williams INT OVER 0.5 -133; Will Levis INT OVER 0.5 -120; Brock Bowers Receptions OVER 4.5 -141; Daniel Jones Rushing Yards OVER 28 -120
DFS:
NFL O/U Win Total Chart
Below are results of snake-draft O/Us. When the season is a bit more underway these will be color-coded to see which are tracking well/poorly.
| VT | Gowin | Darts | JaPan |
| Pats u4.5 | Falcons o9.5 | Broncos o5.5 | Packers o9.5 |
| Chiefs o11.5 | Cardinals o6.5 | Cowboys u10.5 | 49ers o11.5 |
| Dolphins o9.5 | Giants u6.5 | Bills u10.5 | Bengals u10.5 |
| Commanders o6.5 | Steelers u8.5 | Titans o6.5 | Rams o8.5 |
| Jags o8.5 | Colts u8.5 | Jets o9.5 | Browns u8.5 |
| Vikings u6.5 | Lions o10.5 | Raiders o6.5 | Seahawks o7.5 |
| Panthers u5.5 | Ravens o10.5 | Bucs o8.5 | Saints u7.5 |
| Eagles o10.5 | Bears o8.5 | Chargers o8.5 | Texans o9.5 |
NFL Week 2
Chicago at Houston OVER 45 -110
Two exciting, fun QBs. I wish I could bet on Caleb Williams to throw a TD… to the other team because he’ll turn the ball over a lot as he learns; but he’ll make some plays too. Houston goes as Mixon goes; he got 30 carries last week but unsure that will last with his health history.
Jacksonville -3 (-120)
I am gonna bet against the Browns until they bench DeShaun. What a wanker.
Seattle at New England UNDER 39 -115
Two good, young defenses lead by former DCs. Also taking Total Field Goals OVER 2.5 -200.
PARLAY +479: JAX ML -165; KC ML -270; SF ML -230; CHI at HOU OVER 45 -110
TEASER +150: LAR +1; HOU -6.5; KC -6
PROPS: Caleb Williams Pass INT OVER 0.5 -167; Joe Mixon ANYTIME TD -167; Jordan Mason ANYTIME TD -167; Anthony Richardson Rushing Yards OVER 39.5 -125; Malik Willis OVER Carries 6.5 -102; Alvin Kamara Over 4.5 Receptions
DFS:
Week 1 NFL
NE at CIN UNDER 40 (EVEN)
also took NE Team Total UNDER 16.5…NE is missing 1 lineman and another is questionable so I am also betting all Bengals DL to “Record a sack – YES” prop lol
HOU at IND OVER 48.5 -110
Fun game in dome with cool young QBs
DEN +6 (-105)
Should be 3-4.5 IMO
NO -3.5 (-115)
Derek Carr sucks but the Panthers suck more.
TEASER +150: BUF -6.5, CIN -7.5, NYG +1.5
PROPS: Kurt Cousins INT OVER 0.5 -120; Marvin Harrison Jr Anytime TD +175; Dalton Kincaid Receptions OVER 4.5 -165; Total Rushing Yards Justin Fields OVER 45.5 +105
DFS:
Ongoing NFL O/U Draft
VT – Patriots Under 4.5
Allen – Falcons Over 9.5
Darts – Broncos Over 5.5
Pan – Packers Over 9.5
Pan – 49ers Over 11.5
Darts – Cowboys Under 10.5
Allen – Cards Over 6.5
VT – Chiefs Over 11.5
VT – Dolphins Over 9.5
Allen – Giants Under 6.5
Darts – Bills Under 10.5
Pan – Bengals Under 10.5
Pan – Rams Over 8.5
Darts – Titans Over 6.5
Allen – Steelers Under 8.5
Van – Commanders Over 6.5
Van – Jags Over 8.5
Allen – Colts Under 8.5
Darts – Jets Over 9.5
Pan – Browns Under 8.5
Pan – Seahawks Over 7.5
Darts – Raiders Over 6.5
Allen – Lions Over 10.5
Van – Vikings Under 6.5
Van – Panthers Under 5.5
Allen – Ravens Over 10.5
Darts – Buccaneers Over 8.5
Pan – Saints Under 7.5
Pan – Texans Over 9.5
Darts – Chargers Over 8.5
Allen – Bears Over 8.5
Van – Eagles Over 10.5
NFL Preseason Bets
Here are my OVER/UNDERs and other preseason bets for the upcoming 2024 NFL Season:
AFC:
New England UNDER 4.5 +115
The Patriots continue a long tradition of great dynasties (NFL 90s Dallas; NBA Jordan’s Bulls being examples) going to absolute shit in the 5 years after they end. With Belichick’s firing, ahem, resignation and “mutual” parting of ways in 2023 after last’s year dismal run, this organization has been run like a clown show. Their new head coach is green and it shows. They have spent a ton of free agent money on players that either are too old (Henry), too hurt (Judon, who they ended up trading away because he was pissed at his contract), and suck (PooPoo Smith Schuster). They have the 2nd worst offensive line in football behind Carolina, and lost their best defensive lineman in the preseason (Barmore). Drake Maye, the 3rd overall pick, has shown flashes but he probably won’t start until late October…that is if starting QB Jacoby Brissett doesn’t get killed first. I will be betting a lot of Pats team UNDER totals and starting whoever defense is against them in fantasy until that happens.
New York Jets UNDER 9.5 +125
Yes, the Jets have a top 10 receiver in Wilson, a top 5 running back in Hall, arguably the best pass rushing defensive line in football with the best cornerback in football (Sauce). But they have issues because in the end, they are still the Jets: the coach is in a “lame duck” season where he must make the playoffs at least to keep his job, never a good thing in football. Their offensive line was the worst in the league last year so one of the ways they bolstered that is signing former All-Pro Tyron Smith. Is he good? Yes. Has he also not played 16 games in a season since 2015? Also yes. They do have an…aging..HOF QB in Aaron Rodgers… who in his last team picture looks like is one bad step out of bed away from breaking his back. And, in perfect Jets fashion, they traded for a top 5 DE in Hasan Riddick… only for him to sit out of camp because he wants a new deal and may do a “Le’Veon Bell” and not play until week 11… or even not at all. They also have a tough schedule… I have them projected at 7 wins with all of these issues plus facing a tough NFC West and tougher AFC South this year. The only threat for me: if (and when) the Raiders tank and WR Davante Adams forces a trade to be with his old QB.
Miami to win AFC East Division +275
The line is way too high, should be +175 from the team with, IMO, the best offense in football. Them and the Bills will be neck and neck and really the only thing that hampers them is their defensive play on the road and the fact Tua is one knock on the head away from his career ending.
Baltimore Ravens OVER 10.5 -130
I have loved the Ravens’ acquisitions in the offseason especially with Derrick Henry who, along with Keaton Mitchell (who they get back later in the year), should make the Ravens’ mesh running attack tough to contend with. They have good defense and special teams, and Lamar has something to prove this season. Let’s just hope John Harbaugh doesn’t fuck it up.
Denver Broncos OVER 5.5 -110
They have turned over the roster to mostly young players, but favorable schedule with weak division outside of KC. Sean Payton is a good coach and they competed fairly well last year despite the personnell challenges and were held back mostly due to Russell Wilson sucking balls. Bo Nix has actually looked good in the preseason, and he should be good right away considering he was in college for 8 years as college football’s real life version of Paul Blake from Unnecessary Roughness.
Houston Texans to Make Playoffs -200
Their offense looked awesome in the preseason, especially the WR core. Joe mixon is a top 10 back…when healthy (a big if to be fair). They are in tough division but Stroud looks like the real deal and is probably the next QB who will trigger a lockout by the owners because he’s gonna get paid once his contract is up. Let’s just hope there isn’t the NFL “sophomore” slump.
NFC:
Dallas Cowboys UNDER 10.5 -200
Another lame duck coach situation with Mike McCarthy who needs to at LEAST make the NFC Title Game, and not lose badly, to stay on. They also have a ton of issue with aging offensive line and running backs, and players with contract albatrosses (Dak, Micah) who may lose faith quickly. Add first place schedule, and event Cowboys’ yearly fail, recipe for disaster.
Green Bay Packers OVER 10.5 +135
Took the alt line on this as I have them projected to 12 wins. The Lions will have a hangover year after the rungood they got last year pushing their luck; variance gets us all in the end and the Lions going for it on 4th down all the time will be no different than shoving all the time preflop with Ace King. Jordan Love also looked awesome at the end of last year and has a new deal in an offense catered for him now, the WR and TE core is balanced, and the defense can create turnovers and sacks. They do lack RB depth though and I will say if the Saints tank, they should target RB Alvin Kamara to replace the passing back role they lost with Aaron Jones in free agency. Packers +800 to be #1 NFC seed could be tasty; the 49ers’ health is a huge wild card.
Philadelphia Eagles To Make Playoffs -260
Crappy division, they now have Saquon Barkley… they should make the playoffs.
Early Overs
Start of season Overs are scalding hot ATM. They have hit somewhere in the area of 2/3rds of the time, and then last night was just an over orgy. There appear to be a few exceptions that I can see…Mets, Rockies, White Sox, and Athletics really jump off the page as not joining in on the run-fun. For the next couple nights we are going to track (and most likely bet) the following…
TT Unders for NYM, COL, CWS and OAK
Gm Overs for everyone else
Let’s see how this plays out. Will update.
Easter Sinner
Jannik Sinner dominated the Miami Open over the last couple of weeks, an occurrence which has prompted me to look up Future Lines for the remaining 2024 Grand Slams. I have zero issues on most of the lines…Alcaraz and Djok are clear #1 and #2 respectively for the French, Nadal at #3 seems highly optimistic but who knows. Same at Wimbledon, where last year Alcaraz somewhat stunningly won his first grass tournament at Queens Club and then improbably followed that up with his first Wimbledon title. Alcaraz and Djok running 1A/1B there seems very justified…
But the US Open odds are where things seem super interesting. If you go back to early/mid January, the Future Odds were more or less this…
Djok +125
Alcaraz +150
Medvedev +800
Sinner +800
But lets move forward to a post-AO ’24 world…
Djok +125
Alcaraz +160
Sinner +350
Medvedev +700
Over the last few months, Jannik wins his first major (taking down Djok in the process) and destroys the field (incl Medvedev) in Miami. He compiles a record of 16-1 (all on hard-courts). His lone loss comes to Alcaraz in SFs @ Indian Wells, a match Vegas makes Sinner a slight favorite in…So if Sinner is strolling around beating Djok and Meddy, while being favored over Alcaraz, I think a smart move is to capitalize on the “line lag” going on with the US Open. Yes, Sinner has yet to win in New York…The furthest Sinner has gone @ US is QF 2022 (5-setter vs Alcaraz), and he gets bounced LY in another 5-setter vs Zverev in the Round of 16. But again, that is pre-AO Sinner…The dam has been breached. I believe at this exact moment Sinner is the best hard-court player on the planet. Sinner (+350) ’24 US Open Future is the recommendation. There is a chance we don’t see a hard-court number this high next to Sinner for quite some time.
MLB Over/Unders – A New Twist on an Old Theme
Normally in this space we would write about a half-dozen or so season-long Over/Under picks…friend of the program Van Tran suggested he and I do a snake-draft on these this year, so below I am going to record the results of that draft and add a few thoughts when they come to me. We automatically gave ourselves Overs on our respective teams, (Mets and LAD)…I had first pick.
PD #1 – SF Giants Over 84.5
VT #2 – O’s Over 90.5
VT #3 – Tigers Under 81.5
PD #4 – StL Under 84.5 I borderline despise myself for this pick, it is as anti-sharp as a pick can get. But that doesn’t mean it wont happen…the way I rationalize the selection is Vegas was going to get enough money placed on StL to win the division that this O/U had to be in this ballpark. In a very sick way I would have preferred taking this Under @ like 79 or something.
PD #5 – Padres Under 83.5
VT #6 – LAA Under 71.5
VT #7 – Marlins Under 77.5
PD #8 – Nationals Over 66.5
PD #9 – Pirates Over 76.5
VT #10 – ATL Over 101.5
VT #11 – Astros Over 92.5
PD #12 – TOR Under 87.5
PD #13 – A’s Over 57.5
VT #14 – CWS Under 61.5
VT #15 – TB Over 85.5
PD #16 – Red Sox Over 77.5 Eno Sarris from The Athletic is way higher on the potential for the Boston rotation than essentially anyone else Ive come across, and I usually trust what he thinks. Also Alex Cora is one of like 3-5 managers in baseball that I think makes a tangible positive difference to a teams performance and results.
PD #17 – NYY Under 92.5
VT #18 – Rockies Under 60.5
VT #19 – Reds Under 82.5
PD #20 – CHC Under 84.5
PD #21 – D’backs Over 84.5
VT #22 – TEX Over 88.5
VT #23 – Brewers Under 77.5 This is going to be a race to the finish-line in my opinion…All indications point to Milwaukee being way worse this year than in the recent past. How long can the players on the field keep the boat afloat as it is sinking towards the end of the season?
PD #24 – Philly Under 90.5
PD #25 – Cleve Under 80.5
VT #26 – KC Over 73.5 This and the Milwaukee line are why Vegas is evil. Everyone knows MIL will likely be worse, so Vegas drops a lead weight on their win total and asks, “How low are you willing to go?” KC has a young, fun team that is going to be better than last year. “You want to root for their Over this year? Well lets see them win EIGHTEEN MORE GAMES! HA!”
VT #27 – Seattle Over 87.5
PD #28 – Minn Over 86.5
PD #29 – NYM Over 81.5
VT #30 – LAD Over 103.5
