MLB over/unders
A stark visual for “game of inches” when you see over/unders during a 60 game stretch. There are outliers but there is very little social distancing going on here. Only team not listed…of course…has to be the Mets. Im guessing this had something to do with folks wanting to make sure deGrom was healthy.
Arizona (31.5)
Atlanta (33.5)
Baltimore (20.5) U -135
Boston (30.5) U -150
CHC (32)
CWS (32.5)
Cincinnati (32) O -150
Cleveland (33.5)
Colorado (27.5)
Detroit (21.5) O -165
Houston (35)
KC (24.5) O-135
LAA (32)
LAD (38.5)
Miami (24.5) U -135
Milwaukee (30.5) O -150
Minnesota (34.5) O -150
NYY (37.5)
Oakland (33.5)
Philadelphia (31)
Pittsburgh (25.5) U -145
San Diego (30.5) O -130
SFG (24.5) U -135
Seattle (24.5) U -135
StL (31.5) O -145
Tampa Bay (34)
Texas (29.5)
Toronto (28) U -135
Washington (33)
UFC Fight Night 172 and Korean Baseball
UFC Fight Night 172
Kevin Holland -115
Angela Lee +200
Korean Baseball Organization:
NC Dinos vs SK Wyverns UNDER 9 (-110)
And now, because we all need a laugh during these weird COVIDpalooza times, here’s a video of the best own goals in English Premier League history
NFL Draft Thoughts
Hey, looks like we have something to bet on finally during COIVDpalooza that isn’t a Taiwanese baseball game, Belarusian table tennis, or hot dog eating.
The only prop I have today: Top 3 Exact Picks at +105: 1) Burrow 2) Young 3) Okudah
Here’s my projected Top 10:
XFL Week 4
0-2 last week on single bets, but we hit the teaser, 6-2 so far this year.
NY Guardians +8
HOU at DAL OVER 50
TEASER +160:
NY +8
HOU at DAL OVER 50
NY vs LA OVER 39
XFL Week 3
5-0 with HU bets so far in XFL, 5-0-1 total including the teaser than failed last week because Matt McGloin sucks ass.
Here are my assessments of each team so far, from best to worst:
DC Defenders: The league’s biggest and most physical team, including at QB with Cardale Jones. They also have the best overall defense. Pep Hamilton seems to grasp what the league is about: setting up 3rd and 4th and manageables, and establishing deep PA off that. The most complete team, and the favorite, IMO.
Houston Roughnecks: Led by June Jones, so you know they throw the ball a ton and their offense has been the best in the first 2 weeks. They have the best QB so far in Temple’s PJ Walker, and a WR core led by former Clemson stand out Sammie Coates and XFL Snow Leopard All Star Nick Holley. They are OK on defense, but they can rush the passer. Will be interesting to see how they do on the road this week, especially since their QB is also their best RB.
St Louis BattleHawks: The best running team and defensive secondary. Their problem is they have a hard time throwing the ball downfield, and so when they get behind in games, they tend to struggle (like last week keeping up with the explosive Houston offense).
Dallas Renegades: QB Landry Jones is back healthy and he threw for 350+ last week…but their defense is below average. They’ve tallied four sacks on the year and have yet to record an interception. Making 4th-and-outs is critical in XFL due to the touchback rules, and until they get more turnovers, they will continue to struggle.
New York Guardians: They have the best red zone defense, but their below average offense is a lot to be desired. Another team that struggles if they don’t get an early lead in games; it’s painful watching Matt McGloin throw the ball downfield. Their offensive line, especially the tackles, also blow. But 80% of the teams in the XFL are like this, and a la AAF, QB injuries will result so this is why (along with the 25 second play clock), the league tends to gear towards running QBs who can create time on their own (and that’s *not* Matt McGloin).
LA Wildcats: They have had a revolving door at QB with a bunch of guys I haven’t heard of. They fired their defensive coordinator Pepper Johnson after week one. Their coach, former Green Bay Packers’ LB coach Winston Moss, seems to have a hard time understanding the game theory rules of the XFL (like when their QB had to call a timeout to yell at him that they should go for it down 10 on 4th and 4 from the 39. They did and, of course, missed it).
Seattle Dragons: The league’s smallest team, although their WRs aren’t too shabby, led by former Navy standout Keenan Reynolds and Ricky’s Prohl’s son, Austin. They have issues stopping the run but they do create turnovers. Their homefield is probably the best as they play at the Seahawks’ CenturyLink Field. They will get points every week so I’d take a look at them to cover weekly, especially at home. They were projected to be the league’s worst team… but I don’t think they are *that* bad.
Tampa Bay Vipers: The league’s worst team led by Marc Tresman, whose offense can be painful to watch. Another team who can’t figure out who the QB is; Georgia’s Aaron Murray throwing balls in the dirt on screen passes like he’s a fuckin’ cricketer. They commit a lot of penalties, have scored 12 points in two games, and have yet to score an offensive touchdown. The defense is OK, though.
80% of the UNDERS have hit in XFL so far, despite the rules meant to have high scoring games: this is what happens with Triple A football players don’t have official preseason. The scoring might go up as the season progresses however as teams settle in.
Here are my plays this week:
DC Defenders at LA UNDER 44 -115
Dallas @ Seattle OVER 42
TEASER +160: Houston -6.5, HOU at TB OVER 45, NY at STL UNDER 40
XFL Week 2
2-0 last week; will have a more in depth write up after 2 weeks of play next week:
NY at DC UNDER 46.5 (-110)
HOU at StL OVER 49 (-105)
Seattle +1.5 (-105)
TEASER +120: NY +7, SEA +1.5, and NY/DC UNDER 46.5
Super Bowl LIV
First, the props:
First play to be a Pass – YES @ +120
I bet this every year. I feel like these coaches try to get a quick, easy completion to settle the QB into the game. Also, people talked a lot of shit about Jimmy G only having 8 passes last game, so if the 49ers get the ball first, I think Kyle Shanahan calls a pass as a “fuck you” to those doubters. Chiefs get the ball first? They are passing. They pass all the time, it’s an Andy Reid team. That being said…
Mahomes Over Completions 24.5 @ -130
He probably throws the ball 50+ times this game, especially if they get behind. They will also use little dump offs/screens to the RBs as an extension of the running game to slow down a great 49ers front 4. That being said…
Damien Williams Over Receptions 3.5 @ -130 and Alt Line 4.5 @ +160
He had 5 last game vs the Titans. The 49ers only blitz 20% of the time, and they run a system similar to the Dan Quinn Falcons or Kris Richard/Pete Carroll Seahawks….and in both of those Super Bowls, RBs Shane Vereen and James White had huge games. I expect the Seahawks to play a lot of Cover 3 and keep this explosive Chiefs offense in front of them to tackle. The only wrinkle is if LeSean McCoy (out last two games due to illness) gets a lot of looks; but I think the 49ers will know if he’s in the game that a screen or wide run is coming, where Damien Williams gets 1st and 2nd down looks where he will have more “valve” route opportunities off the cuff.
Will There be a Successful 2 Point Conversion? Yes @ +220
Both of these offenses are too good, and I think it will be a high scoring game.
Which team will commit the first penalty of the game? – Chiefs -110
They have committed a ton of penalties in the last two games. They do make a lot of mistakes. Watch Frank Clark get a penalty after talking all that shit about Dee Ford’s offsides in the AFC title game last year.
MVP Props:
Mahomes +115
Mostert +1200 (now at +550!)
TD Props:
Anytime TD: Kendrick Bourne +250
Seems to be a favorite for Jimmy G in the red zone.
First TD: Blake Bell +5500
Why Not? Since I also have the Cousin Sal Gary Russell special: Blake Bell Over Receiving Yards 1.5 -160. The TE had 2 targets vs the Texans, with one catch for a TD.
Side Props:
Which commercial will appear first: Donald Trump or Michael Bloomberg? – Bloomberg +205
This rich dickwad has spent over $30 million so far on the campaign. He’s also had a ton of commercials during the last month of the season. Glad to know someone will be setting more money on fire than me on Sunday for less than 3% of the general vote.
The Pick:
49ers +1.5
Over 53.5 (now 54.5)
Also putting both line and OVER in a teaser (-120). I have the bigger bet on the OVER; this should be a wild game with lots of big plays. I even think the scoreless quarter can happen (+750) AND the over still hitting! I like the 49ers as they are the more balanced, complete team. Plus, I can see the Chiefs puking on themselves at some point because, well, they are the Chiefs and it is Andy Reid…even if he is due.
NBA Bonus:
Lakers -6 (-110)
NFL Title Games and UFC 246
Titans +7.5 (-120)
A bit of a hedge with my Chiefs to win AFC +230 bet….but the Titans have been on fire since starting Ryan Tannenhill (who I said right here on the miracle covers podcast should of started the season). So mad I didn’t take the 55-1 Super Bowl bet. They have a chance to win this game (ML +260), especially with the way Derrick Henry is running, WR (and Snow Leopard All Star) Adam Humhpries is back, and how the Chiefs are banged up defensively (they will greatly miss a 100% Chris Jones). They also have some terrible CB play at times, and I think the Titans can hit some big plays. Not to say that Andy Reid and Mahomes can’t win in a thriller; the Chiefs are notorious to torture their fans at home during the playoffs and both are really due. Should be a close, fun game.
49ers -7.5 (-105)
The only edge the Packers have is at QB, and that’s not a lot because they have been winning without Rodgers playing out of his mind, he’s played just good enough. The Packers’ run defense stinks, they lost to the 49ers 37-8 earlier in the year, and they haven’t played a full 60 min all year. I just hope Jimmy G doesn’t fuck this up too badly, he will throw you the ball 2-3 times a game. I might also take the 49ers alternate line of -10 at +115, and I am also taking the prop of Jimmy G to run OVER 4.5 yards at -105.
UFC 246:
Roxanne Modafferi +525
Tim Elliot vs Akar Askarov Fight Goes the Distance – YES @ -140
Cowboy Cerrone to win by submission +525
NFL Divisional Round
2-2 last week, picks I actually play are in BOLD
Vikings +7
Still stunned that the Vikings pulled it out vs the Saints last week. They ran the ball well, Cousins threw it well, and the biggest part of the game was how their front 4 just mauled New Orleans up front. Everson Griffin showed when he’s on, he’s a top 3 defensive lineman. If that keeps up…they could be a legit sleeper. I don’t think the 49ers have much of a home field advantage, and I think the Vikes and Zimmer’s conservative style (which kind of almost sneaky cost them the game last week) will keep it close enough into the 4th Quarter.
Titans +9.5
I think the Titans match up well with the Ravens, especially if Mark Ingram can’t go. I expect both teams to run the ball and possess the clock. I do love the Titans 1H +6 as the Ravens, coming off of 3 weeks of rest, probably start out slow. I can see this game having a miracle cover of some sort.
Chiefs -9.5
I though the Texans got really lucky last week when McDermott/Josh Allen crapped their pants in the 4th quarter, which then Texans HC Bill O’Brien also then preceded to crap his pants to give the Bills the ball back to tie it and go into OT. Andy Reid is awesome off the bye week, and they lost to the Texans last October so you know they’ve made adjustments, especially defensively where they are playing better.
Packers -4
Don’t bet this line; a largely unbettable game from that aspect. I do like the UNDER 47 as it should be low scoring, and both teams will run the ball a lot. Looking forward to see how Pete Carroll screws this one up!
NHL BONUS:
Ottawa ML +115
