Thursday Links
“We only get one chance at this, with no do-overs. Life is, in effect, a non-repeatable experiment with no control.” – Tim Kreider
The NFL has become so fast and efficient that last season, teams each scored 22.03 points per game, the highest since 1967, while all the league’s 32 teams combined for 11,279 points—the most in NFL history.
The game has become less cluttered. Offenses averaged just 3.09 turnovers (interceptions and fumbles) per game, the lowest of all time by more than 10%, and offensive lines allowed just 4.04 sacks per game—also the lowest ever. Even place kickers set a new mark: They made a record-high 84.5% of their field-goal attempts.
Some football thinkers believe these numbers speak to a temporary period of offensive dominance in the NFL—just one more high point in an endlessly fluctuating historical curve. But if you venture a bit beyond the particulars of football, to the principles of science, there’s another argument to be made: that the NFL’s high-speed, high-scoring offenses are a reflection of one of the laws of nature—the tendency of all things to evolve toward efficiency.
From this week’s TMQ: “Stats of the Week No. 7: Cleveland has one offensive touchdown in its past eight games.” I wonder if the Cleveland announcers will be like Oakland’s last year? Touchdown Raiders Offense!
Gus Johnson again had the best game of the day in week two. Last year I changed my fantasy team name to “Going with Gus” for a week, but it was because I was starting this guy. I could be convinced to put the stopwatch away. Gus & Steve Tasker have Cleveland (+13) at Baltimore this week. Just saying…
49ers fans are wondering about Mike’s stopwatch too.
Nice to see Tom Brady back on the Patriots injury report.
If this is a sport, how can we set lines and bet on it?
Note to all coaches: If your team is underperforming, paying off disgruntled fans is always an option.
Lastly, this is the coolest bookstore ever.
2009 NFL Week 3 Early Leans
So I’m 2 for 2 in losing weeks to open the season, not unlike last year. Maybe I should just start my NFL season in October. This week’s lines are terrible. I don’t like anything other than New Orleans when they opened at -4 in Buffalo and New England, who actually is -4 at home to Atlanta. The Pats moved the ball up and down the field on Buffalo, and I think they’ll do the same against the Falcons. The New Orleans line is up to 6 so that’s a pass too, at least right now. Should have bet it early.
Links coming tomorrow per usual as is some more analysis as I try to figure out how to lose more money this week.
EDIT: Also now thinking about betting on Detroit to win at home to Washington. They’re getting 6 and +230 to win outright.
Awesome Mad Men parody
If you are a fan of the show Mad Men, or a fan of the Sox,you’ll love this video parody via The Bostonist.
The language used is the same I used towards the TV on Sunday as Tom Brady was on his ass….again. How about some two tight end shotgun, or a halfback/middle screen, Bill!
http://bostonist.com/2009/09/14/masshole_men_mad_men_parody.php
2009 NFL Week 2 Picks
First, apologies for not getting Eric Foster’s UFC 103 picks linked up. 3 for 3 and more than making up for last month’s disappointing card.
Quickly with the NFL picks. All 2 units unless noted.
Cleveland/Denver Over 37 4u
Big bet of the week as mentioned earlier. This is 38 or 38.5 everywhere I’ve looked this morning.
New Orleans Minny @ Detroit +10
New York Giants +3 @ Dallas
Managed to get this at -112 as opposed to the -120/125 that’s commonly available.
Pittsburgh @ Chicago +3
Happy to take the home underdog here.
Carolina +6.5 @ Atlanta 1u
Simmons talked me into it.
Good luck out there today.
NFL 2 Minute Ramble Drill
Few thoughts about last week’s games:
We had 2 miracle covers on Sunday. First was by the Baltimore Ravens (-13), who decided to run it in from 4th an inches from the goal line versus Kansas City on Sunday. The meaningless TD helped them cover, 38-24. Thanks John Harbaugh (who had to know the line!), I owe you a beer.
The second was bad for the site, as the Washington Redskins, who seem to only find offense when they need to cover the spread, amazingly covered versus the New York Giants (+6.5). Down 17-3, they decide their first TD of the year needs to be scored by the punter, Hunter Smith, on a fake FG attempt. Deion Sanders called Hunter Smith the whitest guy to ever score a TD in the NFL; Cap Boso must be pissed. Then, down 23-10, the Redskins drive down the field versus a prevent Giants defense and Chris Cooley scores a semi-meaningless TD with 1.34 left, covering the 6.5 points. What a cooler, sorry Lou.
I also owe a beer to both the Bills’ Dick Jauron and Leodis McKelvin, who some how found a way to give the Patriots that game on Monday night. Where was Dick Jauron on the sidelines telling him NOT to run right into the Patriots defense, especially when the Bills have their hands team up awaiting an onsides kick? Having Leodis just down the ball in the endzone wasn’t the optimal play, either (although better than what happened). The Pats had 3 timeouts and a 2 minute warning stoppage as there was 2:06 left on the clock. The smart football play would be to catch the ball, run around for 6 seconds, and get down. That way, the Bills only need 10 yards to win the game, even if they have the ball on their own 10 yard line. The Pats will use the 3 timeouts, and at worst, the Pats at best get the ball back with about :57 seconds left. How do professionals getting paid millions not know this? I know this from my extensive Madden experience; and I’m high most of the time doing it!
Either way, I feel that if the Bills lose another close game, Dick Jauron is going to react like Cathy Pondexter of the Phoenix Mercury (video on the right).
I really hope the Brandon Stokely miracle TD versus the Bengals on Sunday doesn’t affect my season under bet. At least I got another fantastic Gus Johnson call out of it. Gus, btw, is in the works to be calling The 1st Annual Wii Golf tournament, The Castle Open at Everett St, later this year.
Drinking game of the week: Watch this Sunday’s game between the Eagles and the Saints. What you do is every time Eagles QB Kevin Kobb throws an incompletion, you drink. If it’s an interception, then 2 drinks. A TAINT (INT returned for a TD)? 6 drinks. You can also do a pool where you get 4 buddies and everyone picks a quarter, and the quarter that Kobb gets taken out of, everyone who didn’t pick that quarter has to drink a beer. If he actually by the miracle of God finishes the game, every one has a social beer. Fun for the entire family!
Onto the Picks:
San Francisco (Pick’em) at home versus Seattle
Home opener, coming off a big win versus the Cardinals in Week 1. Mike Singletary and his stopwatch know it’s time to take a hold of the division. Plus Seattle, coming off a preseason win in Week 1 versus the Rams (who are that bad), is banged up even more with Seattle WRs T.J. Houshmanzadeh (back spasms) and Deion Branch (vagina) questionable. I see the Niners playing mistake free football again and winning a tight one at home. I mean, you better run your ass off if you are on the 49ers……Mike Singletary IS timing you.
NYG +2.5/+120 Money Line
Take the points or the spread, either way, the Giants are going to win. They have played well there under Coughlin during his tenure, and the Cowboys have a bandwagon following again after destroying a weak Buccanneers team in Week 1.
Cleveland/Denver Over 37
Both teams’ QBs did not play as bad, or as good, as their stats indicated last week. Both teams have enough offensive talent to score 24 a piece on each other. Do not let the Broncos’ defense fool you; they are still terrible when they don’t play Cincinnati, just look at Jay Culter, who sucked in Week 1 versus Green Bay, tearing them up in the preseason game 3 weeks ago. The Browns have a long way to go, and are still tired after Adrian Peterson stiff-armed their entire team last Sunday.
Teaser of the Week:
Green Bay -3.5 vs Cincinnati/ Detroit +16 vs Minnesota
Thursday/Friday Links
Even my soccer lock of the week whiffed…Onto the links because at least they don’t cause me to set money on fire. I should just roll something smokable with a $20 and get it over with.
Bengals LT and Hard Knocks Man-Boob [NSFW] star Andre Smith apparently should have hired a better agent.
That shot by Federer explained.
Jake Long did not have a good day Sunday.
The Pats cheerleaders did.
Spend the five minutes to watch this. “If we’re all at peace with ourselves as much as he is, that’s pretty good.”
Best story of the week: Kid Cannabis
The only thing the drug kingpin formerly known as the Keebler Elf needed was a girlfriend. He found her, of course, at a strip club.
Per usual, the week two injury report from profootballtalk.com
Lastly, in case you thought crazy owners/fans were limited to Oakland, the Atlético Madrid owner’s call for ‘peace and tolerance’ has backfired spectacularly as fans revolt.
CONCACAF Champions League Wednesday
If this post title doesn’t have you fired up I don’t know what to say. For those of you wondering what exactly the CONCACAF Champions League is, I’m happy to tell you it’s the North American version of the Champions League in Europe that’s contested by teams you’ve heard of, such as Milan, Barcelona and Liverpool. Unfortunately, anyone reading this won’t be able to name any teams in this competition, but I’m happy to help out with a tip for one of tonight’s games.
MLS team Columbus Crew are in Costa Rica tonight to face Costa Rican champions Deportivo Saprissa. Don’t let the fact that the entire country of Costa Rica could fit inside Lake Michigan lead you to believe that Columbus is favored tonight. They aren’t. In fact, Columbus is missing their entire back line and only dressing 16 players for the game tonight.
We are only bringing 16 of 23 players down, so I don’t know if it will be worth watching for a neutral. Chicago on Sunday is a big match, and we [Columbus] could almost put them to sleep in terms of the #1 seed out east with an away win.
Here’s who is out for us:
1. D Eric Brunner (starting CB) is suspended.
2. D Chad Marshall (starting CB) got hurt in practice Monday (knee sprain), could miss Chicago game or possibly more depending on severity.
3. D Gino Padula (starting LB) was ill Sunday but played through it. He won’t make the trip.
4. D Frankie Hejduk (starting RB) will be rested.
5. F Alejandro Moreno (starting F) will be rested (played midweek and Sunday).
6. F Emelio Renteria (visa issues) won’t make the trip.
7. GK Andy Gruenebaum (hip) won’t make the trip.So, 5 starters out, including the entire backline. Ouch.
Include the fact that Columbus is away from home and playing on what’s described as 1980s astroturf, and it’s almost assured that Columbus will be “playing for the draw” which in soccer terms means they’ll be trying not to get their ass kicked.
A hard place to go? Estadio Saprissa, near the Costa Rican capital of San Jose, is a soccer apocalypse, said Crew captain Frankie Hejduk, who did not make the trip in order to rest.
“It’s a little bit like Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome,” said Hejduk, recalling the bottle-chucking hostility he has faced on previous visits with the U.S. national team.
Costa Rica has beaten the United States six consecutive times in “the Monster’s Cave,” a venue former U.S. coach Bruce Arena referred to as “borderline dangerous.”
“I don’t think (tonight) will be quite what it’s like when the U.S. plays there, but it is one of the most hostile environments I’ve ever been in,” Hejduk said.
Unconfirmed reports also have Saprissa resting players in their domestic league in preparation for tonight’s game. -200 on Bookmaker. Max play on the Costa Ricans.
2009 NFL Week 2 – Early Plays
Still cleaning up after myself thanks to an ugly week 1. -10u. I would take all four of those bets again, though admittedly the Lions bet was probably too ambitious.
Early plays this week:
Cleveland/Denver Over 37 4u
Sticking with my preseason assessment that both of these defenses are below average at best. Line may be up to 37.5 across the board by now.
Minnesota @ Detroit +10 2u
I’m going to continue betting on Detroit and against Minnesota for the foreseeable future. At least this week I only need to bet one game.
Early leans:
WTF is going on with the Pats/Jets line? It opened in some places as high as +6.5 NYJ and has been bet down as low as 3. This has to be an overreaction by NY money based on week 1 games. Clearly, the Pats are the better team here, right?
Pittsburgh @ Chicago +3
If Cutler plays well last week, this is Chicago +1
NYG +3 @ Dallas
Giants getting 3 points vs. Dallas? Yes, please.
Indy @ Miami +3
I like Miami but can’t yet articulate why.
All three of you comment away.
NFL Plays today
Here are my NFL plays:
Miami/Atlanta Over 44
I just think this will be a shootout and the most exciting game of the day. Someone is going to win 41-38.
Baltimore -13
The real question is whether Baltimore’s offense can cover. KC scoring more than 14 points would be a shock.
SF +6/+215 Money Line @ Arizona
San Francisco is the most boring team in the league…..which I think helps them vs a high scoring offense. They’ll hold the ball and win the turnover and time possession battle and keep things close. I expect the true Arizona to shine through (the one who struggled this preseason, especially on defense) and make enough mistakes to keep this divisional tilt close. You can make a small play at the money line too; this is a winnable game early in the season for Singletary’s crew.
Tease
StL +14 @ Seattle/NO -8 vs Detroit
Seattle is at home, where they play strong, but banged up. They will be missing their best offensive (OL W.Jones) and defensive (CB M.Trufant) players. The Rams now actually have a coach in Steve Spagnolo, and these two always play close games in their short NFC West history.
Detroit still has a bad secondary, but the Saints sometimes keep teams hanging around closer than they should because their defense is average.
NFL Week 1 Picks
Just three games for me in week 1
Minnesota @ Cleveland +4
This game represents everything that is good about NFL gambling.
First, we have a home underdog. Read everything here about why these are good to bet on.
Second, the public is all over the Vikings by as much as a 4:1 ratio, yet the line, which started at 3, hasn’t moved past 3.5 at some books. Probably because of this new QB playing for Minnesota
Third, even though Browns coach Eric Mangini fails at communicating, the man can game plan with anyone in the league and he’ll have his team ready on week 1.
Detroit +13.5 @ New Orleans
Two unit play here. Taking a non-public team and 13.5 is too many points for any NFL game in week 1.
Washington @ New York Giants -6.5
Feeler play here. I have nothing rational that would justify action on a game with a proper line.
EDIT: Adding a teaser for 4u Carolina +8.5 and Seattle -1.5
