Wild Card Sunday
Underdogs seized the day yesterday… again. 95% have hit vs the spread since 2018. Wild stuff. Thankfully, we hit props to save the day. Here are my picks for today:
Tennessee +3.5*
I have them +1000 to win the AFC; I could hedge now, and Baltimore played well (against bad teams) down the stretch. But Derrick Henry has been running like a beast, and Tannenhill has played efficient to where I am comfy doubling down this round. The only fear: the Titans have the worst secondary in the playoffs. Ravens aren’t really a throwing team, but even they could probably have a good day vs this secondary. Lou expects a shootout; so for props, my plays are: Total Receptions – Mark Andrews (BAL) OVER 5 (-115), Total Passing Yards Lamar Jackson Over 209.5 (-115), First offensive play of the game – Pass at +115, Tannehill Rushing Yards OVER 25 (-108), Derrick Henry 2 TDs +200, Anthony Firkser First TD +2800.
Bears +10.5
I wanna pick against Truibisky in a playoff game. I really do. But no fans in dome, Saints burning me over the last few years, and just way too many points for a playoff game even if the team is the worst remaining in the field. Bears do have a good defense so they can keep it close. I expect the Bears to have long drives that settle for field goals, so taking the First Score of the Game – Field Goal +150 prop.
Cleveland +6*
Taking this as a small hedge for my 3 team teaser which Pittsburgh is the final leg of. This should be a close game; Cleveland has been dealing with COVID issues all week and their coach won’t even be there but to it. I expect Cleveland to get ahead early, and also taking Browns 1H ML at +150, but in true Browns fashion spit it away in the second half. I like Diontae Johnson Receptions OVER 6.5 +100, let’s just hope he catches the ball. He will get targets however.
DFS:
NFL Wild Card Weekend Saturday
The quest to go undefeated against the spread will be harder this year, with 7 playoff teams instead of 6 for each conference for 14 total. But the parody of the field, along with COVID, makes this one of the harder fields to prognosticate.
Here’s my Saturday picks and plays; anything I actually bet on with have as asterisk on it.
Buffalo -7 (-105)*
Taking Buffalo because of the favorable juice, they’ll have some fans at home, the offense has been on fire in the last month and the defense has improved since losing a buzzer beater to Arizona in November. The only concern is their run defense; Indy’s Jonathan Taylor has been running the ball great lately. But I anticipate the Bills to stack the box and make Philip Rivers throw the ball vs (in Bill Rafferty voice) man-to-man down the field, which when he does, makes me feel old as balls that’s how uncomfortable it is. I also will have two props: Josh Allen first TD scorer at +600 and Josh Allen OVER rushing yards 39 (+105).
Seahawks -3
Toughest game to pick of the weekend, IMO. Russell Wilson looked great early, but he and the offense have sputtered into the end of the year. Their secondary is so bad, they call it the “Legion of Room”. At least they can tackle. Whilst their defense maybe the best in the field, the Rams’ offense is probably the 3rd worst in the field (behind Chicago and Washington). I don’t know if they are better off at QB with the backup Wolford, or the flaccid Jared Goff (who is questionable and a gametime decision). Taking the points at home for Seattle for the pick, but even then their great homefield is waned due to no fans. Don’t bet on this game.
Tampa Bay -9
Started at 8, now at 9. Tampa has more talent, especially at QB where it’s old ass Tom Brady vs Old and Broken Down Alex Smith. Taylor Heinicke may even see action in this game according to Rivera if Smith struggles. WFT’s front seven is awesome; they will have to have a monster game to keep it close. But I anticipate too many 3-and-outs for Washington and I just don’t know where they find points. I will say, Brady is 1-5 vs winning teams this year; however, WFT is not a winning team with a 7-9 record, getting a home game due to winning the NFC LEast. For a prop, I am taking the first score to be a Field Goal at +150. I am also teasing Tampa (-9), Pittsburgh (-6) and Buffalo (-7) at +150.
DFS:
NBA Bonus:
Phoenix +3.5
Week 17 NFL
Last week of the year to bet on shitty football…well, actually one more week because the NFC East will have a winner.
Raiders at Broncos UNDER 50.5 (-110)
Steelers at Browns UNDER 43.5 (-110)
49ers +7 (-115)
DFS:
NFL Week 16
Atlanta +11
Hopefully they get an early lead and I can live hedge KC ML
Bengals at Houston OVER 44 (-110)
TEASER +150:
Bears -8
Washington +1
Browns -7
DFS:
NFL Week 15
Miami -1.5
The Pats lose this game in Miami 90% of the time
Jacksonville +13
A Lou special
Texans at Colts OVER 51
TEASER +150
Tampa -6
Colts -7
KC/Saints OVER 52
DFS:
NFL Week 14
Titans at Jaguars OVER 52.5
Both of these defenses stink
NY Giants +3 (-130)
Now at +2.5. 1PM road game for Arizona, who is banged up and struggling. Giants D looks pretty solid.
TEASER +150:
Chiefs -7
Saints -8
Giants +2.5
DFS:
Navy vs Army Annual UNDER Bet
Navy vs Army UNDER 39 (-110)
Now down to 36. We take this every year, and it’s hit 90% of the time the last 12 years. The game is in West Point this year due to the pandemic, but I still expect a low scoring slugfest b/t these two in one of America’s oldest football darbys.
Central Michigan @ Toledo OVER 54 (-110)
UFC
Junior Dos Santos +300
NFL Week 13
Jets +7.5 (-110)
This has to be the week they win vs the Raiders, right? Either this one or at the Pats late in the year. Otherwise its 0-16.
NY Giants at Seattle OVER 46.5 (-115)
TEASER +150:
Packers -8
Chargers +1
Cardinals +3
DFS:
NFL Week 12
Tennessee ML +150
Colts have some guys banged up and Taylor is out on COVID (like half of the league). Taking ML in an essentially 50/50 game.
Chiefs at Tampa Bay OVER 56
Just don’t see how points aren’t scored today between these two teams.
Saints -15.5
The Broncos literally don’t have a QB.
TEASER 5 Team @ +400:
Giants -6
Packers -8
Saints -15.5
Browns -7
Dolphins -7
DFS:
Thanksgiving Degen Turkey
Lions vs Texans UNDER 51.5
Washington ML +130
NCAA Special: New Mexico -6.5
DFS:
