NFL Week 10 Early Leans & Stats of the Week
First off, I’d like to show some love for Matt Stafford’s Miracle Cover. We might need to add this one to the definitions & examples page as Stafford’s first four picks just weren’t good enough for Seattle to cover. It took a 5th INT returned for a score with under 30 seconds remaining. Ignore the final score for future gambling; Detroit should have won this game handily and it took a Jamarcian performance to give Seattle the win.
The 49ers need to go with a platoon at QB. The Alex Smith we all came to know and love was back on Sunday with three interceptions and a fumble. Shaun Hill needs to start and be pulled whenever SF trails by more than seven points early and/or they need a score in the 4th quarter. Teams do this all the time with running backs and linebackers, swapping out players based on the game situation. Why not at quarterback too? San Francisco is in a perfect position to try this. They’re 3-5 with eight winnable games left on their schedule (CHI, @GB, JAX, @SEA, ARI, @PHI, DET, @STL).
Very, very impressive performance by the Bungles Bengals at home to Baltimore. Their defense is excellent and held the Ravens to 210 yards offense for the day. Joe Flacco was under pressure all day, Jonathan Joseph and Leon Hall were excellent, and Baltimore couldn’t run effectively enough to respond. Baltimore has serious issues on defense and look a lot like the Falcons. They will go as far as their quarterback and defensive scheme can take them.
Lastly, I’d like to propose that DeAngelo Hall be allowed to face the Falcons every season. Not only is he kind enough to play 10-12 yards off the line on nearly every play, he also managed to get in a fight with his old team again AND attempt a tackle as pathetic as Jeff Reed’s on Percy Harvin a few weeks back. Yet another reason to love Falcons coach Mike Smith as tight end Justin Peele has to pull his coach out of the scrum on the Atlanta sideline. Watch the video here.
Stats of the Week
1) Sunday’s loss to the Falcons was the first time the Redskins have allowed over 30 points in a game since their January 2008 playoff loss against Seattle (23 games). The Redskins have yet to score more than 17 points in any game this season.
2) Sack Watch: Aaron Rodgers was sacked six times in Green Bay’s loss to Tampa Sunday, putting him at 37 through 8 games. David Carr has the NFL record of 76.
3) Tennessee is 9-2 all-time when Chris Johnson scores a touchdown. He easily leads the NFL in rushing yards (959) and yards/attempt (6.7).
4) The Titans have zero turnovers in the two games Vince Young has started at QB.
5) Kansas City and Miami both lost Sunday despite having zero turnovers. NFL teams are collectively 40-10 this season when not turning the ball over (3 games have seen no turnovers by either team).
6) Dallas Clark’s 14 receptions on Sunday tied a Colts record set twice by Marvin Harrison in 1999 and 2002.
6b) Peyton Manning was 19-25 passing…in the first quarter. He ended the first half with 40 pass attempts.
7) Randy Moss has 8 touchdowns in 5 games against the Dolphins as a member of the Patriots. Touchdown #8 game on this play.
8) The Jacksonville Jaguars are 4-4.
9) Tampa’s win over Green Bay was their first in 12, dating back to November 30th, 2008 over New Orleans. On that date, their record was 9-3.
9b) Tampa’s kickers are a combined 3 for 9 on field goals this season.
10) Minnesota is currently a 17 point favorite at home to the Lions this week. Assuming it holds, it will be the largest spread of the season.
Early Leans
Not a lot out there early. Maybe this will be my bye week so I can’t set any more money on fire.
New England +3 @ Indianapolis
This will likely be a big public play as Indy looked bad in their win over Houston. That doesn’t change the fact that they have problems with good teams that are bigger than them and can rush the passer (Tony Ugoh had help all day at left tackle).
New Orleans @ St. Louis +14
I don’t want to bet this, but probably will anyway.
Teaser Miami -2.5 v Tampa & Arizona -2 v Seattle
Lots of money coming in on Miami so this line will probably move to 9.5 or 10 making this teaser useless.
2009 Week 9 NFL Picks
Loving Pat’s “fun units.” It sounds like a groupie nickname for an NBA team. As usual, follow these at your own risk.
Detroit +10 @ Seattle
Too many points for one crap team against another. Fully aware this means backing Matthew Stafford on the road.
Tennessee @ San Francisco -4
I don’t understand this line at all. Clements and Staley are out for SF but I don’t think it will matter.
Dallas @ Philadelphia -3
See Sean’s comments for this one.
Van “Lucky Man” Tran – NFL Week 9
So Van dodges a bullet because the three picks yesterday were all good. That puts us up 75 fun units for yesterday, let’s try to keep things moving. For good or bad, here are the NFL plays…
Kansas City (+6.5) @ Jacksonville
This is just a line that immediately stuck out to me in looking at things yesterday. It is one of those where you hear your inner voice saying, “oh hell, jacksonville is going to cover that.” Since we are hot at the moment I will trust that inner voice.
Miami (+10.5) @ New England
Now I really do not want to bet on this game, but Vegas is not making that a viable option with this line. This is just flat out too high. I know the Pats are playing very well right now but this line essentially means the Pats have to win by two touchdowns and that is a lot of points against a very solid Miami team. I do not love this bet by any means, but I feel my hand is being forced.
Detroit (+10) @ Seattle
I just do not see the Lions doing too much offensively in this game. Stafford on the road against a veteran team and hostile crowd makes me see something like 27-10 Seattle.
Week 9 Quick Picks
Before the picks, here’s my tip of the week: Josh Duhamel, if you are going to cheat on your wife, make sure it’s not with a stripper that works at an Atlanta club called, “Tattletales”, and certainly don’t act like you are susprised that news got out after knowing said strip club name.
It’s almost as bad as the Las Vegas SemiPro special teamer who tackles his own punt returner. “Oh wait, he’s on my own team? Shit!”
Onto the picks:
NCAA:
South Carolina/Arkansas under 54
NFL:
Philly -3 vs Dallas
Betting against Romo on the road? Yes, plz!
Detroit ML +400 @ Seattle
5 to win 25? Why not?
6 pt Teaser:
ATL -4 vs Redskins
CIN +9 vs BAL
College Football Picks
So Van Tran got me out of bed this morning to talk college football gambling. And of course this led me to force myself to look at lines and now I am putting 25 “fun units” (dollars) on 3 games. If I lose I curse Van Tran for dragging me out of bed. If I win, I’ll let him off with a warning. The picks are
Central Florida (+34.5) @ Oklahoma
Central Florida is a good program. Their only three losses are to Southern Miss, East Carolina, and Miami, with two of those on the road. Back in Vegas last year I would have taken UCF and to cover myself a bit I would have taken the over which is 49.5. That way the only way you lose both is if Ok wins like 42-0.
Texas A&M @ Colorado (over 57)
I like this because the game is at Colorado, which theoretically means they will be dictating the pace a bit and they have a tendency to be involved in high scoring affairs. And A&M can put up numbers themselves.
LSU @ Alabama (-7.5)
Only reason I am putting money on this is because it is the game of the week and it will be give me something to entertain myself with while working at City Sports this afternoon.
NFL to follow tomorrow…
NBA Thoughts
Some quick NBA thoughts on a Friday. I have the Spurs at +1075 to win the NBA title despite their loss in Utah last night.
On a sad note, Utah’s Matt Harpring is likely to retire after this season.
Harpring continues to deal with the effects of a devastating infection that followed ankle surgery in 2008 as well as the effects of multiple knee surgeries throughout his career. Harpring did not join the Jazz for training camp or the preseason, remaining at home with his family in Atlanta.
Harpring was one of my favorite players as a fellow white person, and he basically carried some mediocre Georgia Tech teams through the ACC before turning pro and was a favorite of Jazz coach Jerry Sloan. He had a solid career there after being drafted by Orlando in 1998. With Kyle Korver also out, the Jazz are currently without any white Americans for the first time in franchise history.
Some notes from Basketball Prospectus on Cleveland’s early struggles:
Cleveland’s roster is, in many ways, an odd mismatch of talent. Perhaps more than any of the teams we expect to contend for a title, the Cavaliers’ depth chart features some very versatile pieces (James, Mo Williams, Delonte West, Anthony Parker, J.J. Hickson, and Zydrunas Ilgauskas), who are expected to mesh with some very single-dimensional specialists (O’Neal, Daniel Gibson, Anderson Varejao, and Jamario Moon). Creating a system that caters to this kind of lineup is not easy, and it takes a considerable amount of time for a group as eclectic and diverse as this to come together.
The major issue is finding ways for these players to truly complement one another without cannibalizing each other’s opportunities. Integrating O’Neal to this mix has only made this harder, as his unique size and agility (even at his current age and weight) force the Cavaliers to use him in specific ways. One way to take advantage of the varied talents on Cleveland’s roster is to create squads based on specific game situations and team needs. This would allow Mike Brown to plan entire rotations in based on the game situation. Do you want low post scoring? Make sure O’Neal is in the game. Are they clogging the paint with their big, preventing dribble-drive action? Use a lineup that features Ilgauskas. Is the other team getting into the paint too easily while we are on defense? Get your long athletes and strap up and guard someone. These kinds of squad changes are common in high school basketball, where rosters are more piecemeal, and they may make sense for Cleveland.
I wonder how long it will be until an NBA team hires a coach or a GM from Europe. Truehoop had this bit today from Real Madrid’s basketball coach Ettore Messina:
I consider myself a tailor whose job is to create the best possible suit for the team. I’m not a prêt-à-porter guy; I don’t produce those “ready to wear” clothes. I’m like a man who makes a suit that’s supposed to fit its owner perfectly. That means it takes time for me to understand what’s best for the team both defensively and offensively. Like, we can defend a pick-and-roll in many different ways. And the way we defended it with CSKA could be ill-suited for a team that’s not as powerful and at the same time is much quicker than CSKA. We have to adjust our pick-and-roll defense, adjust principles of defensive rotations, etc. It’s my job to define through experiment what we should do….
Figuring all this out takes a while and in the meantime we’re not playing consistently and sometimes lose games.
It sounds like Messina would be a great fit in Cleveland, or any other team that’s going to be looking for a coach and would like to avoid the mistakes of college coaches past.
They’re not choosing success in Memphis, where the Grizzlies are off to a 1-4 start and are probably the worst defensive team in the league. I love this quote from GM Chris Wallace on Allen Iverson:
We had some discussions with him [Iverson], but basically it’s like it is with all players. You come in, lets see what you can do, let’s see how it fits in, maybe its starting, maybe its coming off the bench, let the coach determine how he feels like he can best exploit your talents and we’ll go from there.
Well that’s great, Chris. You’re the GM of an NBA team, meaning your roster is only 15 players deep. Maybe it would have been a good idea to have this conversation with your coach and Iverson before you signed him? Maybe your marquee free agent wouldn’t be in the press saying things like this after the 5th game:
Q. Do you understand what Hollins is trying to do by gradually bringing you along?
Iverson: I understand what he’s doing. But he’s seen the things I’ve done. He knows I’ve never come off the bench in my whole career. He knows that’s not something I’m accustomed to. He knows that’s not something I would want to do. …Everybody knows that’s not something I want to do.
Q. Did Griz brass tell you the franchise was rebuilding?
Iverson: No. Nobody ever said anything about rebuilding. You know I wouldn’t have come to a team, at 34 years old, that was in a rebuilding process. I’m trying to win a championship. I thought I would have won a championship by now. I didn’t come here for no money. I didn’t come here for another scoring title or an All-Star game. I’ve done all that stuff. I want to win. If we are not trying to win, I have a problem. I’m assuming we are trying to win.”
Now admittedly, Iverson’s an idiot for thinking that the Grizzlies had a chance to win anything besides the NBA lottery or the 8th seed in the playoffs this season, but that’s not his job. If Chris Wallace really thought his team had a chance to be good this season, he’s somehow a worse GM than I thought, and if not why did he sign Iverson in the first place?
Thursday/Friday Links
“Mr. Steinbrenner deserves another championship.” – Joe Girardi
Halloween winners on the subway in Boston.
I love this headline: FAT footballers to receive free Big Macs in Thai sponsorship deal. Somehow, I’m not sure this is exactly the best idea…
Thailand’s top footballers will receive free burgers as part of their new three-year, £545,000 sponsorship deal with the fast food giant McDonald’s.
According to the Football Association of Thailand (FAT), McDonald’s will provide £450,000 in cash and the rest in products in exchange for shirt sponsorship for the next three years, starting this month.
And in case you were wondering, soccer from random countries is entertaining.
If I can read weird text correctly, I believe Botev pulled off a late 1-0 win, but it’s not the goals we’re interested in. No sir, it’s the rioting. Not only did players and backroom staff from both teams decamp to the pitch for some punching, shoving, and colourful language, but the fans in the stands got in on the act as well, setting fire to random bits of the stadium.
This is what I believe to be the first mention & link to a story about Larry Bird since this blog’s inception.
The Warriors fail at hazing.
Some thoughts on 2009’s best fielders in baseball. That Pujols guy is pretty good.
Lastly, this just about ruined my day.
NFL Week 9 Early Leans & Stats of the Week
Early Leans: None
We did start to see a return to form this week as average teams (SF, ATL) should not be getting double digit points away to anyone (IND, NO). Below average teams should not be laying 2 touchdowns plus against anyone (SD). That said, the early lines still look like a mess, but this is coming from someone who’s been setting money on fire for two months straight.
Slightly less early leans:
Tennessee @ San Francisco -4
This line should be closer to -6. Something isn’t right here and it’s likely the fact that LT Joe Staley and CB Nate Clements are both out for six weeks.
Detroit +10 @ Seattle
This is too many points for one awful team against another one.
Stats of the Week
1) Aaron Rodgers leads all QBs in rushing yards with 188 on 29 carries and in QB rating (110.4).
2) The Titans Chris Johnson is now averaging 6.9 yards per carry.
3) The Saints have scored 273 points through 7 games, leading the NFL and on pace to score 624. The 2007 Patriots hold the all time NFL record with 589 (36.8/game).
4) San Francisco tight end Vernon Davis now leads the NFL in receiving touchdowns with 7. He’s caught all four of Alex Smith’s TD passes this year.
5) The Dolphins won versus the Jets Sunday despite being outgained on offense 378-104.
6) The Oakland Raiders have scored an NFL low 6 touchdowns through 8 games.
6b) The Rams have scored exactly the same number of points through 8 games (77) as they did in their four preseason games.
7) Curtis Lofton now leads the NFL in tackles with 76.
8) The Denver Broncos with their loss to Baltimore failed to cover for the first time this season.
8b) Despite their win last night versus Atlanta, New Orleans failed to cover for the first time this season.
9) Week 9 should theoretically be a good week for the NFL. Oakland, St. Louis, Buffalo and Cleveland are all on bye.
10) Number of players suspended by both the NFL and UFL: 1. Come on down Koren Robinson!
2009 Week 8 NFL Picks
Denver/Baltimore Over 41.5
This is a completely neutral point total (NFL average is 42) despite the fact that neither defense is particularly good.
Houston @ Buffalo +3.5
Home underdog being shunned here against a team with a history of sucking on the road. Probably should take the moneyline here (+175ish) but I’m not that smart.
Miami +3 @ NY Jets
Still like the way Miami matches up here. It’s hard to scheme against power which is what the Dolphins are going to run the whole game.
Bonus 3-team teaser sure to fail:
Seattle @ Dallas +0.5
Carolina @ Arizona EV
Atlanta @ New Orleans -1
Parlaying all 3 moneylines here is essentially the same bet but pays out 10-12% less.
Passing Oakland and San Francisco. On Showtime’s Inside the NFL, there was extensive video of the Raiders loss to the Jets filled with running commentary from CB Nnamdi Asomugha muttering things like “All 11 were wrong on that,” and “Bad day, bad day, bad day.” He’d be one of the most popular players in the league if he played on a winning team. And am I the only person that thinks Alex Smith and Shaun Hill should platoon? Smith is capable of some of the most spectacularly bad interceptions outside of Jake Delhomme and I really don’t see how sitting on the bench for a year changes that. Hill should start and Smith should come in in relief if/when the 49ers trail and they need to complete a pass longer than 10 yards. Or maybe Hill can be converted to relief and become the first closer QB ever in the NFL? The hardest part might be find him some entrance music.
Good luck out there today.
Will you complete my teaser?
So I have decided that I want to bet the under on the South Carolina/Tennessee game. Its around 41 I think. But I want to tease it and I really do not like any college games too much so I am going to do the game I played two weeks ago where I try to guess the spread on games. The game where the biggest disparity exists will become Part B for my teaser. This is prefaced, though, where if i forget or didn’t hear about an injury or something and that affects the line I’ll probably back out of that pick and go with another game. As always, lines provided by pinnaclesports.com Real line in bold
Houston @ Buffalo
Right off the bat a game where an injury has major implications. Johnson is supposedly playing, though. Im going to make this line Houston -.5 even though I know that line does not happen. Houston minus 3.5
Browns @ Bears
Browns still a train wreck. Bears minus 10 Bears minus 13
Seahawks @ Cowboys
Cowboys looked good last week. Cowboys minus 7.5 Dallas minus 9.5
Rams @ Lions
Wow and yuck. wuck. Lions minus 3 Lions minus 4
49ers @ Colts
Not sure how Vegas is feeling with the Alex Smith situation, but Colts minus 11 sounds about right. Indy minus 12.5
Dolphins @ Jets
Jets minus 3. This line has to be either 3 or 3.5 Jets minus 3.5
Giants @ Eagles
Eagles minus 3.5, pretty much the same logic as the Jets game. Division rivals = home team field goal favorite in most cases. Giants minus 1
Broncos @ Ravens
How much respect is Vegas going to give the Denver 6-0? That’s the question here. Ravens minus 1 Ravens miuns 3.5
Jags @ Titans
Now going back a few games you just heard me say that biz about division rivals and field goals and blah blah. But this game has to be an exception in my eyes. Jags minus 1.5 Titans minus 3
Raiders @ Chargers
Oakland played well week 1 in this game. Still, this has to be around San Diego minus 10 San Diego minus 16.5
Panthers @ Cardinals
As I was starting this blog I saw Delhomme is starting this week. Cardinal D is looking like a legitimate fantasy option. Cardinals minus 8 Cardinals minus 10
Vikings @ Packers.
Didn’t see the Steeler game last week but it sounded like Favre was gun slinging again at the end. Packers minus 3 Pack minus 3
Falcons @ Saints
The Falcons have been playing pretty suspect the last couple of weeks. Might have to bet this game regardless if the line is right. Saints minus 7.5 Saints minus 10.5
So, according to this I have to bet on Oakland. I don’t love it, but it’s not that horrible. The tease will make the Raiders more than a three touchdown underdog. If they can score two touchdowns against a San Diego defense that has been far from “lights out” this year that should pretty much get things done. Let’s get back on the Oakland express one more week.
