Miracle Covers

Super Bowl LV Prop-palooza

Super Bowl LV is here…and while I am taking Tampa in the game (+3.5), and putting in a teaser with the OVER (56) due to the fact that a team who lost the first game of a Super Bowl rematch that year is 7-6 in the second game… this will really be a close game IMO and it’s not where my major action lies. That’s all in the PROPS, baby!

GAME FLOW PROPS:

First Play from Scrimmage – Run @ -114
I usually pick pass every year, but last year was a run, and due to hardly no fans and the weirdness of that, I think both teams come out to settle down to run at first before the passes start flying later.

Biggest scoring half – 2nd Half @ -110
KC usually starts out slow. 2nd half has been the biggest scoring half in 4 of the last 5 Super Bowls.

Will either team attempt a 2 point conversion – YES @ -145
Too much talent on the field not to try one if you are both teams.

Both teams lead in 1st Half? YES @ +105
Will either team score 3 unanswered times in the game? – NO @ +140
Should be a close, back and forth game.

Will the MVP be a QB? YES @ -500
QB has been the MVP 55% of the time. These are also two of the best in the game, and the league will favor that unless someone gets 4 sacks, 2 INT, or 3 TDs.

FIRST TO SCORE:

Mike Evans +1200
Rob Gronkowski +1600
Travis Kelce +600
Patrick Mahomes +1300
Darrell Williams +1300

KC PROPS:

Mahomes Rushing Yards OVER 25 @ -110
Let’s just hope Mahomes doesn’t run backwards again this year for 30 yards at the end of the game to run out clock.

Mahomes Completions OVER 33 @ +175
I see the Chiefs throwing the ball a ton, and quick, vs Tampa’s defense.

Mecole Hardman more catches than Cameron Brate @ +100
Brate is hurt coming into the game, and Hardman coming off nice game vs Bills.

Darrel Williams OVER Reception Yards 14.5 @ -115
Darrel Williams Receptions AT LEAST 2 @ +100
I pounded Chiefs RB Damien Williams reception OVERs last year, I expect more dump offs from Mahomes this Super Bowl too. Williams is KC’s “pass blocking” back, and has gotten more touches since Clyde Helaire-Edwards hit the rookie wall late in the year due to injuries, and Le’Veon Bell is now old and sucks.

Travis Kelce Receptions OVER 8.5 @ +110
Been hammering this all playoff for Kelce. He’ll probably go down as best Receiving TE of all time over guys like Shannon Sharpe and Kellen Winslow.

Tommy Townsend Longest Punt UNDER 52.2 -125
Don’t expect many 3 and outs from KC which allow for punter to have long kicks.

Will the Kansas City Chiefs Successfully Convert a 4th Down? YES @ -165
They will go for it on 4th down than most teams

TAMPA PROPS:

Will Tom Brady Throw an Interception? YES @ -200
He has thrown a pick in each of his last 3 games vs KC.

Leonard Fournette Receptions OVER 4 -125
Fournette has become the “James White” for Brady during this playoff run.

Ryan Succop Kicking points OVER 7.5 @ -115
He has been the best kicker in the playoffs; one edge Tampa has over KC as Butker has struggled.

Rob Gronkowski Anytime TD Scorer +200
OVER Receiving Yards 50 @ +125
He has scored TD in 2/3rds of the Super Bowl he’s been in. Had 80 yards and a TD last time they played.

DFS:

The Ochocinco Special:

My version of Cousin Sal’s Gary Russell bet. I took Pats WR Chad Ochocinco at 0.5 OVER receptions at +100 in Super Bowl XLVI and pranced around in glee at the party I was at when he had his only catch, a 15 yard incut, in the 3rd quarter.

Scotty Miller OVER receptions 1.5 @ +125
Antonio Brown, the other slot receiver for Tampa, comes into the game hurt. The Chiefs blitzed 47% of the time in the 1st matchup… I expect them to continue, and Brady and company to make the adjustment to get the ball out quick on screens and such. Miller also had a good game last game, including a TD before the half. Snow leopards, unite!

Championship Sunday

Packers -3

In terms of pressure, there is a ton on Aaron Rodgers. A lot of folks consider him this year’s MVP, and probably the 4th best all time behind Brady, Montana, and Manning. It’s his first NFC title game at home, and beating Brady to get to a Super Bowl would be a great feather on his cap. It does help that the Packers’ defense has been playing better, and DaVante Adams (who just came off an injury and played when these two met in a 38-10 drubbing by Tampa in October) is in great form. We took the Packers’ under this year and woefully got it wrong; I think part of the reason Rodgers and the team is playing so well is Aaron’s time in Green Bay is probably more borrowed time UNLESS he wins this game. Players can usually galvanize around that. On the other side, Tom Brady now makes his 9th title game in 10 years… although it was him NOT making mistakes, instead of making plays, last week which brought him here. Usually when a great QB late in his career moves on to a new team, they do well the first year. Montana and Favre made it to their title games; Warner and Manning made it to Super Bowls. But all eventually flamed out, and even their careers shortly ended after (Manning won a title in 2015; but his arm was shot and it was more Denver’s all time top 5 defense that year that brought the bacon home). Brady has already proved him point over Belichick; he’s freerolling at this point. But the lack of a running game, a true 3RB, and Tampa’s inconsistent secondary will probably be the end of the Bucs’ run here.

PROPS:

First to Score: Evans +1000, Adams +450
Receptions (At Least): Fournette 4 +114, Gronkowski 3 -114
Rushing Yards: Rodgers OVER 15 -110
TDs (At Least): Aaron Jones 1 -114

Bills +3

Kansas City is banged up, have been walking on wires the last 8 weeks, and had a hard time throwing on the Bills secondary last time these two met. The game was pushed back due to COVID to a Tuesday; the Bills mostly played a shell zone and allowed the Chiefs to run the ball to make sure Hill and company were covered down the field. It’s a similar strategy Bill Belichick used on the K-Gun Bills, ironically, in 1991 with the Giants in the Super Bowl. I will also add the big concern on Mahomes’ health isn’t the concussion so much, as it is the toe… he was clearly short arming throws last week and it effected his accuracy. I do wish the Bills had a better running game; Zach Moss is out and they will miss him in this game. But I believe a short passing attack in throwing to slot receiver Cole Beasley will supplant that possession game… Julian Edelman killed the Chiefs in 2018. I think this will be a close, low scoring game like the first matchup in Buffalo earlier in the year so I am also taking the UNDER at 54.5 (-105).

PROPS:

First Score Method – Field Goal +170
Total Receptions: Cole Beasley OVER 4.5 (-105), Clyde Edwards-Helaire 2 (-125), Darrell Williams 2 (-105)
First to score: Darrell Williams +1600, Gabriel Davis +2000, Kelce +650
Rushing Yards (At Least): Josh Allen 40 -127; Darrell Williams 38 +110
Receiving Yards (At Least): Kelce 107 +108
Patrick Mahomes Interception – YES +140

DFS:

Divisional Sunday

Chiefs -8 (-115)

Was at 10, huge money coming in on Browns. I don’t know why, their secondary sucks. I am taking Browns 1H +6.5 as I expect this to be close until KC pulls away in 2nd half. I could see this game being like the one vs Houston last year (minus the mega-fail). I also have KC in teaser with TB. Props for this game:

– Kelce OVER Rec Yards 100 +102
– Le’Veon Bell OVER Receptions 2 +150
– Hunt, Kelce, and Hill to all have TD +450
– Mahomes OVER rushing yards 22.5 -140
– Hunt OVER rushing yards 34.5 -160
– Chubb OVER receptions 2.5 +100

Tampa Bay +3

I have no idea who wins this game; hard to beat a team 3 times in a year. It;s gonna be close; I am taking First Score – Field Goal prop at +170.

NBA BONUS:

Dallas Mavericks -6.5