When Good/Great Programs Have a Down Year
I think this is the important gambling point I am going to take away from college basketball this year. With most legitimate players having a shelf-life of one to two years, it seems that college basketball programs are more susceptible to year-by-year fluctuations in talent than virtually any other gambling related sport. Consequently, even good or really great programs can have occasional off years.
The obvious examples of this in the 2009-2010 CB season were Connecticut and North Carolina. Both had records around .500 which are an anomaly to say the least and they were both train wrecks against the spread, North Carolina was 9-19 and UConn at 12-18.
I think this relates to the overall issue that when betting sports its preferable to abandon preconceptions as much as possible and be a cold judge of actual talent. Vegas gradually revalued both teams during the year, but this was a slow process, and gamblers who had the nuts to go against name recognition obviously did pretty damn well.
This should be a topic of conversation on this Blog at the beginning of the next CB season.
NBA picks – A Recap
So yesterday I went 1-4. There were actually six games but the Philly one was not listed Sunday morning, we will ignore that game and pretend it didn’t happen. Accordingly, I finished the week at 28-24-1, or at 54% Which I think means that if I had placed thirty dollar bets on everything, and everything had been -110, I would have a net positive of thirty-six bucks. Take that Vegas. Tremble. I might be wrong on the math if anyone wants to check that out. This upcoming week, college basketball. And speaking of which, Fairfield (+8) plays Siena this evening in the MAAC Chamionships.
NBA Picks – Mar 07
Worst day of the week at 3-6 yesterday. Now at 27-20-1. The experiment concludes………..
Los Angeles Lakers (+2.5) @ Orlando
Houston (-2) @ Detroit
Washington (+12) @ Boston
Oklahoma City (-3.5) @ Sacramento
Portland (+6.5) @ Denver
Midnight Zen
Full day today at the Sloan Conference. I’ll have lots coming in the next week or two. For now you can catch twitter links here. Truehoop has a writeup on all panels basketball here.
Completely unrelated, it seems as though the European Poker Tour was recently robbed of over a million euros during a live taping. Video Below. Maybe they got their idea from the World Series of Dice?
| Chappelle’s Show | ||||
| The World Series of Dice | ||||
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NBA Picks – Mar 06
Went 6-4-1 yesterday. That’s brings us to 24-14-1 on the week, or right around 63%. Let’s go
Golden State (+10.5) @ Charlotte
Atlanta (+1.5) @ Miami
New Jersey (+8) @ New York
Houston (-3.5) @ Minnesota
Dallas (-1) @ Chicago
San Antonio (-1.5) @ Memphis
Cleveland (-3.5) @ Miliwaukee
Los Angeles Clippers (+13.5) @ Utah
Indiana (+12.5) @ Phoenix
NBA Picks – Mar 05
Went 1-2 yesterday. That’s brings us to 18-10 on the week, or 64%. Looks like eleven games on tap tonight. Heeeeeeeeeeeeeeere we go
Milwaukee (-4) @ Washington
Los Angeles Lakers (-3.5) @ Charlotte
Detroit (+12) @ Cleveland
New York (+8) @ Toronto
Boston (-6) @ Philadelphia
Golden State (+13) @ Atlanta
Orlando (-10) @ New Jersey
Sacramento (+8.5) @ Dallas
Indiana (+10) @ Denver
New Orleans (+8) @ San Antonio
Oklahoma City (-4.5) @ Los Angeles Clippers
NBA Picks – Mar 04
I went 8-4 yesterday. My mark for the week is now 17-8, I am at exactly 68% for the week. On to the picks.
Memphis (+5.5) @ Chicago
Los Angeles Lakers (-5.5) @ Miami
Utah (+1.5) @ Phoenix
Dorkapalooza 2010
I’ll be there on Saturday at the event also known as the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. I’m unlikely to liveblog as that will be too distracting but we may have to bust out the old Twitter feed. Any requests?
NBA Picks – Mar 03
Went 3-1 yesterday. I am currently at 69% for the week. Lots of games tonight. Let’s see what happens. Side note, Van Tran as of 11pm last night was up a grand on the week so far.
Golden State (+15) @ Orlando
Philapdelphia (+8.5) @ Atlanta
Cleveland (-9.5) @ New Jersey
Charlotte (+4.5) @ Boston
Detroit (+3.5) @ New York
Washington (+10) @ Milwaukee
Memphis (+2) @ New Orleans
Minnesota (+14) @ Dallas
Sacramento (+7.5) @ Houston
Oklahoma City (+7.5) @ Denver
Indiana (+8.5) @ Portland
Phoenix (-3.5) @ Los Angeles Clippers
NBA Picks – Mar 02
Went 6-3 yesterday. I currently sit at 66% for the week. Let’s keep this train rolling, may have time to add some college games…and apparently i will ’cause I just looked and there’s only two pro games. Here we go
Sacramento (+10.5) @ Oklahoma City
Indiana (+12) @ Los Angeles Lakers
EDIT : TWO ADDITIONAL GAMES, WERE NOT ON PINNACLESPORTS THIS MORNING
Boston (-4.5) @ Detroit
Golden State (+10.5) @ Miami
I just looked at college lines and I am clueless. I’ll try to do some work on this as conference champ week gets going soon.
