One Non-Soccer Pick
SF Giants @ Houston Astros (+126) – Two Units
Oswalt has been much better recently, not that he has really been bad at any point. And the Giants have been struggling.
Group A Bets
Kickoff is in under an hour…
South Africa PK +170 vs. France is on strike
Going with the point spread here. This will push on a draw. I have a small amount on SA +280 straight up as well.
Uruguay/Mexico o2 +175
I’ll be livebetting this one and putting my 100% live betting record at risk in this one. The draw for this game has gone from -150 to nearly even as the 2nd place team will have to face Argentina in the second round. Mexico will not be playing for a draw. Not willing pick a result up front, but I really like the over 2. I also loved the over 2 on both of Chile’s games, but their lack of finishing turned those bets into losers. We’ll see what Mexico and Uruguay have today.
EDIT: Knockout round scenarios entering the final group games are here.
World Cup
If you bet money based on my World Cup picks last week, whoops. Made five bets and the best result I had was a push. If I had been betting One Hundo a pop on those picks I would be down a smooth 4 bills at this moment. So let’s try to win it back! And here’s how were going to do it…
Uruguay (+296) v Mexico – Two Units
Uruguay v Mexico (Draw -108) – Two Units
As has been analyzed by many including Louis, a draw puts both sides through, thus making it a very possible outcome. But a win is very beneficial. I am taking Uruguay based on the idea that I don’t like them more but dislike them less than Mexico.
Nigeria v Korea Rep (over 2 and 2.5 +109) – Two Units
Nigeria v Korea Rep (over 1.5 -214) – Three Units
Here is my thinking. Nigeria is going to have to win in order to have a chance to advance, so they are going to have to play aggressive. And if they do score, the onus than goes on Korea to score or they are going to be gone. The only way Korea can play completely defensive is if the game is 0-0 at the half and even that plan goes out the window if Greece is scoring against Argentina. Let’s see what happens.
World Cup Week 2
Adding some more action no doubt spurred by the increase in scoring that was inevitable, even if it was hard to profit from some of the scoring. We took a bad beat taking Australia/Ghana o2.5 +165 when there was no scoring after Harry Kewell’s red card and subsequent penalty prior to the half hour mark. England drawing 0-0 didn’t help either.
Denmark & Cameroon meanwhile looked incredibly poor in their opening games and laughed at o/u 2 as neither team defended well or with much interest. The 2-1 final should have been more like 3-3.
Action we are adding:
o2½+140 (IVORY COAST/BRAZIL)
o2+120 (SWITZERLAND/CHILE)
TO WIN – FIFA WORLD CUP URUGUAY +3500
We know from the given match odds that Uruguay is roughly 75% likely to win their group, doing so with a win or draw against Mexico. If they succeed, their reward is a 2nd round game against Greece/South Korea/Nigeria, all three of whom they will be favored against. Getting 35:1 on a team that’s a favorite to advance to the quarterfinals is good value. Also keep in mind that the way the bracket shakes out, teams from Groups A-D won’t face Groups E-G until the semifinals. There’s a decent chance pre-tournament favorites Spain and Brazil will face each other in the round of 16. Uruguay winning their group would also see them avoid Argentina in round 2. Should Uruguay fail to win their group, any value at 35:1 will cease to exist.
Lastly, the Marlins gave away vuvuzelas to all fans attending last night’s game against Tampa.
Looking to feed off World Cup soccer buzz, the Marlins gave away plastic air horns to fans as they entered the stadium, the toy instruments creating a loud and never-ending soundtrack for the night. Similar to the vuvuzelas that dominate the audio landscape at matches in South Africa, the buzzing of the horns blared from long before the first pitch, and some were still going at the end.
The horns might have been a hit with fans, but they were a big miss with those on the field, especially because all the noise could have prompted a lineup-card miscommunication between Gonzalez and Barksdale.
“It was the most uncomfortable baseball game I’ve been a part of in a long time because of that,” crew chief Tom Hallion said. “Whether that had anything to do with it, I don’t know, but it could have. When’s the last time you heard something like that at a baseball game? Never. You don’t see this kind of stuff at baseball games.”
Said Maddon: “I really believe the horns should be banned from Major League Baseball.”
Added Marlins second baseman Dan Uggla, who, like the umpires, resorted to earplugs: “That was the worst handout or giveaway I’ve ever been a part of in baseball. This isn’t soccer. I know the World Cup is going on, but this is baseball.”
And this from Marlins center fielder Cody Ross: “It was awful, awful. I can’t tell you how awful it was.”
World Cup Action
Let’s take a look at some upcoming games over today and tomorrow. I will be betting units and keeping track of my payoff/money lost in relation to the lines. Will I finish up money?
France v. Mexico – Draw +215 – One Unit
A couple of teams with not a whole lot going on these days. Both seem very unspectacular. I am betting on 1-1 or 0-0. So, with that in mind…
France v. Mexico – Under -118 – One Unit
And then…the chalk
Germany v. Serbia – Germany -140 – Two Units
USA v. Slovenia – USA +120 – One Unit
England v. Algeria – England -344 – Two Units
These picks are about as imaginative as a turd, but that doesn’t mean they won’t happen. England is vastly superior to Algeria, the US cannot lose the game, and Germany scored four fucking goals in their first game. How the hell do you bet against any of these teams?? 2-0 in all three games.
Snooze
16 games, 32 teams, 25 goals. Betting the under in every game would have given you a 13-1-2 record so far. The only over to hit was Germany’s 4-0 win over Australia. Brazil/North Korea pushed on a 3 goal line and Greece/South Korea did the same at 2. 8 games were 0-0 at halftime.
Uruguay hit an over yesterday in the second group game and Argentina has an early goal this morning, so things are looking up. Having not looked at the lines in detail for this second batch of games, there has to be some value in some overs going forward. I wonder if the weather has anything to do with it?
Also, we’re adding a play England -450 vs. Algeria
World Cup Betting
The World Cup just kicked off 45 minutes ago with South Africa and Mexico tied 0-0 at half. Some various bets I’m recommending so far:
Uruguay to win Group A +350
This one is already off the board as Group A starts today, but this was also available at +400. Even odds for a team that should be slightly better than that in the most wide open group of the eight.
New Zealand Total Goals Under 1.5
New Zealand failed to score at the Confederations Cup in 2009 against Spain, Iraq and South Africa. They scored one goal in 180 minutes against Bahrain to qualify. They haven’t scored more than one goal in a competitive game in a very long time (games against fellow South Pacific island nations excluded). That said, they’ve been very good in warmups, beating Serbia 1-0 and nearly drawing Australia, losing 2-1 on a stoppage time goal. They still haven’t scored more than one goal in a game though. NZ plays Italy, Paraguay and Slovakia in the group stage and this bet says they won’t score in two of those games.
Greece – South Korea 0-0 Draw +600
Greece is quite possibly the most boring team in the tournament and +600 or so is probably going to be offered on this exact bet for all three of their games. South Korea will likely have to manufacture a goal from open play as Greece are very good on set pieces, which will also be their best chance to score. The over/under for this game is 2, not 2.5, so not a lot of goals are expected. This, along with New Zealand, is a high variance play.
Brazil -1000 vs North Korea
Brazil has to win this game over 90% of the time for this to be profitable. It’s very, very difficult to envision them losing to a North Korea team that we know almost nothing about but isn’t particularly good.
Portugal/Ivory Coast Over 2.5 Goals +135
A little secret about these two teams is that neither of them are particularly good at defending.
Brazil Goals for the Tournament Over 6.5 -110
This is not the most prolific scoring Brazil team to grace the World Cup, but they aren’t up against the strongest defensive teams either. This will may hinge on how many goals they score in their opener if Brazil have problems in their group. Brazil have scored 10+ goals in six of the last seven World Cups.
Quiet No More
April is traditionally a slow gambling month. Despite the NHL and NBA playoffs kicking off, there’s not usually much action to be found. Thankfully, a couple of items have popped up for this weekend:
Les Habitants
From Puck Prospectus:
December 19th is the line of demarcation for me. That’s when Montreal’s prime mover, defenseman Andrei Markov, returned from a freak injury suffered on opening night. At that point in the season––through 37 games––the Canadiens had gone a poor but rather fortunate 16-18-3 (.473 winning percentage) given the fact that they were 8-3 in extra time. Montreal detractors––which includes essentially everyone writing or talking hockey right now, from the conventional pundits to my sabermetrically savvy colleagues at Puck Prospectus––point to the uninspiring results of those early season Price-led, Markov-less Canadiens when explaining away how fortunate the Habs were to upset the Capitals and why they have no shot against the defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins. But you’re talking about two completely different teams. Whether conflating those two teams indiscriminately, or conflating them in the name of collecting a larger sample size, you’re bound to get fooled by these Habs, and surprised by the results.
After Markov’s return, the Canadiens finished the final 45 games of the regular season with a fine 23-15-9 (.589 winning percentage) run – as hot as any Eastern Conference team over that stretch of games, other than––of course––Washington. Even more impressively, with Markov in the lineup and Halak in goal, Montreal transformed from a team scoring 2.47 GF/game (30th in NHL) and allowing 2.88 GA/game (18th in NHL) with -0.41 GD/game (25th in NHL) to a team scoring 2.91 GF/game (8th in NHL) and allowing 2.48 GA/game (4th in NHL) with a 0.42 GD/game (5th in NHL). Sure, the team that beat the Capitals may have been the “16th overall seed”––lucky to get in the playoffs over the Rangers with a mere 88 points––but don’t get fooled: it was the 5th best team in the league upsetting the best team in the league with the help of an outstanding performance in goal.
But December 19th is not just for the Canadiens; it provides an illuminating starting point for looking at the Penguins as well. Through 36 games, Pittsburgh was a scalding 25-10-1 (.708 winning percentage), fourth in the NHL at +25 GVT, a hair’s breadth behind Washington’s league-leading +30 GVT. Yet over the next 46 games, the Pens went a tepid 22-18-6 (.543 winning percentage), their lackluster performance camouflaged by the wins and points accumulated in October and November. Keeping in mind that a .561 winning percentage is average––given the additional points given for overtime losses––you’re talking about a below average team over the course of more than half the regular season, regardless of their pedigree as defending Stanley Cup champions, regardless of their marquee exposure, regardless of their big name superstars. Perception is about as far from reality as you can get – With both teams.
The series is currently tied at 2-2 and you can get the same price on Montreal to win the series, roughly +300, as was available four games ago. I’ve also got small action on Montreal wo win the East and the Stanley Cup at +900 and +2200 respectively.
La Liga
It’s the second to last week of the season and once again time to involve the favorite team of Miracle Covers: Athletico Madrid.
Opponents Sporting Gijon are -150 at home tomorrow.
Since mid-March, two teams have been playing their La Liga matches as though the tournament were a sporting version of Asterix’s Roman Legion: an entertaining way to know new cities, make some friends and get food for free. Atletico are one of them.
Atletico’s week passed by placidly, talking about their upcoming Europa League final, with happy statements from players and coach (Quique Sanchez even said: “We work to bring happiness to the people”, and I can’t even think of a politically correct pun here). They even managed to beat Valladolid on Wednesday, in an almost unintended way, taking advantage of Clemente’s team wasteful first half and subsequent hara-kiri after Atletico scored first.
Sporting aren’t totally free of trouble yet, but they will be after playing Atletico’s B side on Saturday.
Lastly, the Round Rock Express have a new pitcher.
Marathon Monday – A Bettor’s Guide to the Action
Marathon Monday is less than two weeks away. Essentially everyone who reads this site knows that I have a substantial amount of money riding on my performance this year. I have given Bones and DaGow 13:1 odds that I will break the four hour mark this year, at 50 and 20 bucks respectively. Intense stuff. In addition to that I have a couple of 50 dollar straight up bets out there based on beating four hours and a pub crawl bet with a girl whose also running. With all that in mind, here is the odds breakdown.
WILL PAT D BREAK FOUR HOURS:
Yes : -200
No : +200
For anyone not fluent in gamblese, -200 means that the odds are 1:2 that something will happen, you bet two dollars to win one. +200 means the odds are 2:1, you bet one dollar to win two. The reason I am making myself a favorite is because I just have so much damn money bet on myself. If I was running this for fun it would probably be just as likely that I would be drinking booze halfway through the race. With that in mind…
Will Pat D Run the Entire Marathon
Yes : -500
No : +500
I have entered the Boston Marathon twice, finishing it once (4 hrs, 30 mins) and dropping out after 17 miles the second time. Again, this line would be a lot different if I didn’t have a boatload on the line.
Over/Under Water or Sports Drinks During Race : 11.5
I honestly have never kept track of this in the past but I am guessing this sounds about right. As a guide, the absolute minimum I could see on drinks would be like 8 or 9.
Will Pat D Beat the Random Girl Mentioned Above Who You Have Never Met (Updated)
Yes : Even Money (Updated Line)
No : Even Money (Updated Line)
You know you want to bet on this, you know you are tempted to throw five dollars on or against a girl you have never met. As a guide, she is in her mid-20s in good condition. I am almost 100% positive she has never run a marathon before, and I currently have an email out to her asking what time she expects to run the race in. I may update the line accordingly when a response gets back, but this is the line at this moment.
UPDATE
Originally, this line was me -250, and the girl +250. However, I received this email response back from her when I asked about time…
I’m shooting for 3:40, but will probably be more like 3:45ish. What about u?????
CRIPES! This girl means business. First of all, she has her expected time nailed down to a five minute window, and on top of that she pops out with FIVE IN YOUR FACE QUESTION MARKS right back in my grill asking me what time I expected. I was even tempted to make her a slight favorite at this point but I do hold one slight advantage over her and that’s that I have run the race before. But goodness.
SECOND UPDATE
Follow up e-mail from Corinne
I ran in 2007 in 4:16
Oh Billy!
Will the Sox Game Still be Going On as I pass Fenway
Yes : Even Money
No : Even Money
Opening pitch at the game is scheduled for 11:05 AM. I will hit the starting line somewhere around 10:35 AM. You do your own math. Note : If I drop out, “No” wins.
Will I Ejaculate From Now Until the Marathon
Yes : +500
No : -500
You will notice that for all these lines I have excluded juice from the action.
That’s about all I got for plays at the moment. If any other good ones pop into people’s minds feel free to make additions.
Congrats to Louis
Louis raped Vegas and myself by taking Duke at 15-1, 10-1 and 9-1 (with me) to win the National Championship at different stages before the tournament started. I would never have placed any of those bets, kudos to Louis.
