This Things I Believe (3)
Osaka
Dont know if plagiarize is the right word here…we are going to cite our source. There is a very knowledgeable (seems to me, anyway) guy on youtube named Cam Williams who will often do watch-alongs for tennis matches. He does Osaka’s match today, where she winds up losing to someone named Marketa Vondrousova. My spell check just exploded. I trust this guy for his insights and we are going to transcribe about a minute long quote of his in regards to this match and how it relates to potential Osaka tendencies…
“If youre going ‘what the Hell happened,’ this is what happened. Vondrousova came out here with a game-plan, of being aggressive and making Osaka move. She made her move…thirty-two unforced errors for Osaka…she made Osaka hit 32 errors, and the reason why I say made…she came out here with a game-plan, super aggressive, ultra-aggressive game-plan…and that made Osaka try and go for shots she wasnt comfortable to hit, she was trying to go for winners too early, Osaka, and that just filtered into missing so many shots…and she just made so many errors…errors, errors, errors…Vondrousova made Osaka make those errors. That is the blueprint on how to beat Osaka on a hard-court. A very similar scoreline, we saw Sakkari do that in Miami, Sakkari did the same thing, came out aggressive…Osaka gets a little stressed and goes ‘Hang on, Im supposed to be the dominating player here, why are you hitting winners?’ And then she gets a little stressed and she makes terrible errors…thats what happened today.”
Now the point of this series of blurbs is to try to drill down to true statements. Cam is including some hypothesizing about possible thoughts going through Osaka’s mind and how this affects her play. What we can say for the purpose of this entry, as Cam notes, 2 of Osaka’s most recent losses on hard-court are to players utilizing an ultra-aggressive game-plan. Osaka hits 32 errors vs Vondrousova and 23 vs Sakkari in Miami, losing both matches in straight sets. Is there a correlation between a super-attacking style and Osaka’s high unforced error total and eventual defeats? We cannot say for absolute certain, but recent results would suggest this scouting report/analysis has merit. Considering Osaka has won the last 2 majors on hard-court this is notable.
This Things I Believe (2)
Steelers OLine
We can say with confidence the Steelers OLine is going to look much different this year than from units of the recent past. We are not pointing out anything new by noting the eye-opening collective departures of proven Pro-Bowl talent players DeCastro, Pouncey, and Villanueva, not to mention Ramon Foster retiring before the 2020 season. As a result of this turnover, some folks are predicting rough times for the Steelers offense, which struggled at times last year as it was, especially in the run game. Whoever lines up will obviously be tasked with protecting an aging QB often described as “statuesque.” If you take an important unit that performed poorly last year, and then strip it of essentially all its proven talent, it would seem bad times are almost inevitable. And then the dominoes knock each other over and Steeler short-sellers have Pittsburgh finishing 3rd or 4th in their division. An already subpar OLine is only going to be worse this year. Ben, who has been integral to the success of PIT over the years is going to get his 300 year-old ass bombarded routinely. He will get hurt (or at least be super ineffective), the offense will be a shell of itself, Pittsburgh will be a collective hot mess. All of these things might happen, but what I am looking to point out here is that this argument rests on not 1, but 2 assumptions – that the OLine unit will be inevitably super poor, and ultimately that will be a main factor in a possible Steeler downfall this year. Tomlin recently noted; “(Last year) We were last in the league in rushing. We have nowhere to go but up from certain aspects.” That team finished 12-4…Even if the OLine proves a borderline disaster (which is not a given), there still exists the chance it ultimately just doesnt really matter in the standings.
As I noted yesterday, the idea behind this particular series of blurbs is to stick to statements we can make that are essentially fact. The story line of a low-grade OLine causing the Steelers to plummet in the standings might prove largely accurate…but all we can say for certain is that the PIT OLine will be very different than in years past. The team recently signed former Pro Bowler Trai Turner at OG and I would imagine they will continue to pursue reinforcements.
This Things I Believe (1)
I am going to aim to write a daily blurb here. Anyone who stumbles upon this for whatever reason should be warned the aim for these posts will be to toss out ideas and thoughts, not to slam down winners…The main concept here will be to try to establish concepts that are believed to be true. I apologize if some of the issues here are widely known and discussed, I havent watched SportsCenter in an eon.
Blue Jays
I have been going thru team lineups pretty consistently the last couple of weeks and it is striking how Toronto hardly ever seems to diverge from its standard lineup. Virtually every other team accounts for hot streaks, or at the least righty-lefty matchup stuff…Toronto for the most part seems to go, “Oh, you say they are scratching that 22 year old lefty minor league call-up and are pitching deGrom today? Fair enough. No, I dont need an eraser, we’ll stick with whats on the card, thank you.” They simply dont care…You are going to face 5-6 very legit RH hitters right off the rip…I bet some pitchers almost do a double-take when Cavan Biggio steps up. It has obviously worked fine for them so far, interesting to see if they maintain this course as playoffs begin to approach.
UFC 264 + Copa America Final
UFC 264:
Tai Tuivasa -130
Stephen Thompson to win by Decision +150
Dustin Poirier to win by submission +450
PARLAY @ +150: Sean O’Malley -1000; Michel Pereira -180; Tai Tuivasa -130
Copa America Final:
Brazil vs Argentina OVER 2 -110
Euro 2020
EURO 2020 plays:
Group B
Belgium to finish top -150
Group C
North Macedonia finish bottom -200
Group D
England and Croatia Advance -130
Group E
Poland to NOT advance +350
Spain and Sweden to Advance +150
Props:
Hungary to be lowest scoring team +500
Antoine Griezmann to be highest French scorer +350
England to Semi-Final +135
England to be eliminated on PKs +400
Team with most cards: Portugal +1000 and Netherlands +1600
Final:
Belgium vs Germany +2500
Belgium vs France +1800
NHL BONUS:
NY Islanders vs Boston UNDER 5 +125
Belmont Stakes and Saturday plays
Belmont Stakes:
Exacta +2800: Essential Quality 1, Bourbonic 2
Hot Rod Charlie +450
NHL:
Carolina vs Tampa Bay OVER 5.5 +125
UFC:
Santiago Ponzinibbio +115
NHL Playoff Futures and UFC 262
Lou is bullish on Avs winning cup (+450), SC Final (+175) and winning West (EVEN), and I have Washinton to win Stanley Cup +2000 before the year, but for me:
Winnipeg +600 to win North
Montreal +650 to win North
Colorado to win West EVEN
Series:
Montreal +255
Lightning -160
Bruins vs Capitals goes 7 Games +230
UFC BONUS:
Viviane Araujo +115
Tony Ferguson +145
MLB Over/Unders
Lets dig right in…
Nationals (Under 51.5%) +103
Players like Soto, Trea, Robles give the false impression that Washington is generating young talent assembly line style, but this is an old organization. It would seem quite possible this team is a fairly substantial seller @ the Trade Deadline. Mr Scherzer happens to be reaching the end of his long-term deal, the temptation to sell will be real if team is floundering. The farm system is quite poor, and this segues to another issue for this year, lack of fresh capable reinforcements to call on. Kieboom has shown nothing to indicate he is legit…Side Note on Kieboom, he got Lasik surg over Off Season, how awkward has that conversation have to be for a coach to recommend a pro athlete get eye surgery. “No, no, we are not saying you are bad, no, no, not at all…how many fingers am I holding up?” SPs ERAs were awful last year so team went out and got middle-aged name Jon Lester. If Josh Bell is mediocre (quite possible), or if Robles does not reproduce his 2019, this ‘sounds pretty good on paper’ lineup will struggle. Super, super tough division. And speaking of that super tough division…
Phillies (Over 50.5%) +104
2 bets so far and 2 plus monies…moderately terrifying. Anywhoots, this pick is primarily based on some positive regression, some quality signings, and Dave Dombrowski. “The team’s defense was a serious handicap in 2020. The Phillies allowed a .344 batting average on balls in play, the worst since the 1899 Cleveland Spiders” There are few guarantees in sports gambling, but I would bet my life that this # will lower substantially this year. And more encouraging is that these issues were not really based on SP stuff…”PHI starters last season ranked 10th in the majors in ERA (4.08) and 14th in WHIP (1.29) — and they were the best in the NL East” Bullpen issues are real and destructive, but they are also light-years easier to correct than rotation stuff. The team brings in Bradley, Kintzler, and Alvarado and I believe they are going to move Velasquez there full-time as well. Dave Dombrowski is not working in his mid-60s so he can watch a team undergo a 4 year rebuild.
Astros (Under 54.5%) +108
Another plus money bet…”Maybe the biggest surprise of the Astros’ offseason was that they didn’t acquire a starting pitcher.” That is a quote from The Athletic BEFORE Whitley out for season and Valdez injury. Now you say to me, buddy, they signed Odorizzi. That is true enough, but the double-edge sword on that is the organization is now apparently close to maxing out payroll with Correa entering a contract year…(No pricey reinforcements on the way). Michael Brantley has a pretty impressive injury history obviously. If he misses time this OF unit does not inspire confidence. And because everything is a circle…
Tigers (Over 42.5%) -105
AJ Hinch certainly does not come off looking like a saint from Monitor-gate, Bang-gate, DontRipMyShirt-gate…but he does not come out of it looking awful either. It gets revealed that twice he took a bat to one of those monitors…he probably should have done more…What Would Bill Belichick do…it was dirty, it was scuzzy, but it showed that Hinch 1) Didnt care for violating the rules 2) Took pro-active action to display his displeasure 3) Eventually said “fuck it. We are being paid to win ballgames.” Numerous beat reporters have noted a positive joo joo in the clubhouse with Hinch around. This club has a lot of quality young talent. I think they make positive strides this year, going something like 74-88, and get consistently better next couple years.
More March Madness Hedging Monday
Parlay +375: Houston ML -350* and Arkansas +245 ML
*Disclosure: I actually do like Oregon St +8 here if it was straight up, but Houston winning dims my still alive bracket hopes. I might actually find a way to middle Oregon St during the game, via live line, if they fall early and we get an even bigger number because I think it will be a close game.
Arkansas +8
I need Baylor to win to have any chance of winning my first NCAA bracket since 2010, and even bigger payout than my first in 2003, beating 178 players (Thank you, Carmelo, McNamara, Warrick, and Syracuse). The other equation is Michigan: if both make it to the Final Four and Final Two, then more hedging will be to come! I do think Baylor wins; Arkansas has a habit of lulls offensively in games so I am not taking ML straight up (I’ll wait for Final Four to do that…hopefully) instead putting that in parlay and putting most my hedge money on the number.
March Madness Hedge Sunday
Florida State +2
Parlay @ +140: Gonzaga -1000 and FSU ML +120
Teaser: UCLA +6.5 and USC -2
