Miracle Covers

Lou’s NFL Over/Unders 2012

Confidence Pool scoring and I am usually better than Pat at these. 

5) Miami Fish Under 7.5

 Rebuilding team jettisoning any and all above average players.  Ryan Tannehill had problems with interceptions against the Big-12, I don’t think he’s going to magically improve as a rookie.  I’m not convinced at all that he will develop into a first division starter either. 

4) Dallas Cowboys Under 9

See below.  This still applies even with the win on Wednesday.

3) Buffalo Bills Over 7.5

Will go with the crowd on this one as the schedule is ridiculously easy in the 2nd half.  I do think the Jets are being underrated and the Bills are being pumped up a bit more despite having very similar rosters. 

2) Cleveland Browns Under 5.5

It’s challenging for NFL teams to win more than 12 games or less than 4 due to the parity of rosters and professional tactics.  Cleveland has proven this with the following win totals:

2 (expansion 1999), 3, 7, 9, 5, 4, 6, 4, 10, 4, 5, 5, 4(2011)

This is why we’ve nicknamed the Browns Cleveland Le Poo.  Outside of Joe Haden (possibly suspended for 4 games), Trent Richardson (still getting healthy) and LT Joe Thomas (possibly sad from playing with all of these below average NFL players) there isn’t another consistently above average position player on the roster.  It doesn’t mean someone won’t emerge or have a great season, but Weeden looks terrible and the receiver’s aren’t much better meaning if you can score 24 against Le Poo you should leave with un win.   Mons de six for Le Poo.

 1) Carolina Panthers Over 7.5

Again, see below.  Looking forward to week 7 off the bye, Carolina at home to Dallas.

Random NFL Thoughts Go Here

Twitter actually, but this will do for now.

 I would far prefer the Titans and Jaguars chances of winning the AFC South if they were playing their backup quarterbacks instead of their starters.  Jake Locker probably has more in common with Tim Tebow than any other current NFLer.  Blaine Gabbert might be the 45th best starter in the league at the moment.  Chad Henne is in the low 30s at worst.

GB @ Seattle

 I am looking forward to betting Seattle week 3 on a Thursday night at home.  Hopefully the Pakcers will be 2-0 and Seattle looking all dysfunctional and 0-2.

One more divisional bet to include here.  KC to win the AFC West at +300.  This is essentially a parlay on San Diego and Denver’s Unders, two teams I dislike for Norv Turner and overrated reasons respectively.  I would be happy to get more action at this price.

NFL Bets To Date

Dallas Cowboys UNDER 9

I was sick the week we turned in bets last year, and it’s very possible the Cowboys were partially responsible.  The Cowboys under has been the most reliable bet since I started doing this in 2006.  I bet Dallas under 9.5 wins and they were 9-5 after week 15 and in line for the #2 seed and a week 1 bye.  They promptly scored 7 points at home next week against the Eagles and then lost at home again in week 17 against a 2-13 Lions team for the miracle cover.  That led to a last second field goal that did not go well.

Sean and I joke that this is the easiest annual bet to make and made fun of me for picking Dallas’s over last season.  In truth, Dallas has hit their over in 2007 with 13 wins and 2009 with 11.  Their number is consistently between 8.5 and 9.5.  I blame the lockout for last season, but it also took a series of unfortunate events, similar to 2006 for this under to hit.  It’s extremely difficult as an outsider to say that the epic collapses are endemic to a team and not merely unlucky, but because this team is on television all the time, everyone can see that the Cowboys are consistently the worst good team in the league. I have to post the video.

They routinely shift into their clogged toilet offense in the final 4-6 minutes of close games, often while leading, fail to convert for the 2-3 first downs or single score that would seal the game, and then often lose because their secondary was unable to cover or tackle anyone.

Most of that secondary has been replaced this season, but Brandon Carr coming over from KC has never been asked to be the #1 corner and the rookie Claiborne will likely have problems his first season.  (Patrick Peterson, a superior player out of the draft, was horrific as at corner for Arizona and only added value by his excellent punt returns). The even more immediate problem this season is that seemingly half the team is injured and it’s still August.  The offensive line has questions as well

This is clearly a work in progress. The expected starting guards, Nate Livings and Mackenzy Bernadeau, are at last on the field. Phil Costa is still working his way back, but David Arkin has at least become a possible solution at center, at least for a game or two. Doug Free seems to be having some problems. However, there are differing opinions as to just how big they are. On the O line, only Tyron Smith seems to be not only fully capable, but a standout player.

Here is a list of the Cowboys leading receivers from last season and their current status

While this isn’t quite Miami Dolphin territory if only because this group has the potential to be above average, it’s not looking great for week 1.  Combine this with the near certainty of turning at least one sure victory into a defeat and this is a bet I really like.  I have 9 wins but most books have 8.5 which is another plus.  Lastly there’s this:

Carolina Panthers to WIN NFC South +525

I couldn’t get the 550, but the Falcons and Saints are co-favorites here and while the styles are different, I don’t really see where the Panthers are appreciably worse than the Falcons aside from head coach.  That can be a big difference obviously and I think it might determine who ultimately wins this division.  The Saints don’t have a coach, the Falcons have a professional one and I don’t know what to think about Ron Rivera.  MLB Luke Kuechly is just  wonderful player and will have a Patrick Willis like impact on this defense.

Speaking of their defense, it was horrible last year, possibly even worse than the Rams as they suffered the same problem of having everyone get injured.  This in turn led to the special teams being terrible too.  Filling your roster each week with guys who were cut in training camp is generally not a path to success.  Assuming average health, this defense can’t be as bad as Atlanta’s and Carolina at least has a player who can get to the quarterback on a regular basis.  Likely over in the pickem pool, but a 100% bet here as I like getting better than 5:1 on what should be a 3-3.5:1 bet.

Oklahoma State Over 8.5 -135

I know nothing about college football, but hit on Stanford a season or two ago.  Blackmon and Weeden are the highest profile players to leave and are day 1 NFL starters.  I am betting here that whoever is left, and I can name no one on their roster, is competent enough to pickup all 6 “guaranteed” wins and go at least 3-3 versus the rest.  Baylor might push the guaranteed wins up as high as seven without Griffin as their defense was horrific, in which case I like this even more.

2012 NFL Season Win Totals & Division Odds

Lines posted from Pinnacle.  Unlike other books, Pinnacle doesn’t like to get middled, so they continue to adjust the juice on these lines as the money comes in rather than move the number.  So Miami is at 7 or 6.5 other places but 7.5 and -305 here.  It turns out looking incompetent on Hard Knocks, jettisoning talented veterans, starting a rookie QB who had problems with interceptions against Big-12 defenses and having your GM compared to Matt Millen minus a receiver fetish is enough to cause everyone and their immediate families to bet the under.  Who knew?

Arizona 7 (U-183)

Atlanta 9

Baltimore 10 (U-195)

Buffalo 7.5 (O-237)

Carolina 7.5

Chicago 9.5

Cincinnati 8.5 (U-224)

Cleveland 5.5 (U-194)

Dallas 9

Denver 8.5 (O-182)

Detroit 9.5 (U-194)

Green Bay 12 (U-208)

Houston 10 (O-196)

Indianapolis 5.5

Jacksonville 5.5

Kansas City 8

Miami 7.5 (U-305)

Minnesota 6

New England 12

New Orleans 10 (U-171)

NY Giants 9.5

NY Jets 8.5 (U-170)

Oakland 7

Philadelphia 10

Pittsburgh 10

San Diego 9 (U-175)

San Francisco 10

Seattle 7 (O-230)

St. Louis 6

Tampa 6

Tennessee 7 (O-160)

Washington 6.5