MLS Saturday
We won our MLB wager yesterday as Pittsburgh cruised 6-0 leading to Braves Journal asking the following on the game thread:
Was there a game tonight? Did the Braves know?
5-4 on the season so far for +2.62u. Nothing looks good today in MLB and there are three games already underway. Vernon Wells has 5 home runs on the season for those who care.
Three plays in MLS today however and we will see how they do.
Columbus +120 No Draw @Chicago
RSL -167 vs. Chivas
Dallas -150 vs. Vancouver
Good luck out there today.
MLB Plays
Two So Far. I am down 100 Units exactly since 4/1
Over 7.5 -111 San Diego vs San Fran @ 22 Units
Indians ML -110 vs Astros @ 22 Units
Lincecum is awful as is Richard away from home. Betting against the Astros is nothing revolutionary at the moment, but I am getting a good price as I am wagering on a man that has not pitched well in about half a decade. Just be average, Kazmir, that should be plenty.
No Plays = No Posts
One play today Pittsburgh +108 W. Rodriguez at home to the Bravos & Tim Hudson. Debating Padres and Marlins both near +200 on the road.
Fun question from trivia the other night. Name all the pitchers who spent time in the Mets organization have thrown a perfect game.
Haven’t really gotten into weekend soccer yet but will update with any plays. Highlight of the weekend in MLS is the first ever Cannabis Cup as Seattle visits Denver. Be safe ya’ll.
Tuesday
Keeping things short today. One play tonight Milwaukee (Peralta) at home to SF (Zito).
Sunday
We nearly won two and in a row with the Astros late last night, but the bullpen blew a lead in the 8th & 9th to lose 5-4. Also had a bit of luck in not finding a good price on the Cubs as they lost 3-2. The idea of taking all of these plus odds plays is to find the ones that are loser to 50:50 propositions and take the weighted coin flip as often as possible. There are some 2,000+ games each season to pick from so a large volume of smaller bets, the exact opposite of most other sports, is the preferred method. This is my first season tracking at length so we will see how it goes, but I assure you my plays are not very large.
Also won the MLS bet this week as Dallas beat LA 1-0 with a late goal. There were two missed penalties and a red card in the 2nd half, so there was a bit of luck here but the bet was a good one as there were zero shots on target by either team in what I’m sure was a thrilling first half.
Two leans that are most likely passes today with Oakland and Miami. I am really tempted to take the biggest line of the Astros series again today at +191 with Humber but there’s not much else there without seeing lineups and CJ Wilson will probably strike out 10-12. Sunday is especially a tricky day to bet baseball with the multitude of regulars that get the day off. Bobby Cox back in the day used to rest nearly half the starting lineup and hope the pitching would hold. If Ned Yost is doing something similar, I’ll bet on failure instead.
Saturday
2 for 2 on Friday and I wanted to repeat both bets today but cannot get a good price anywhere on the Cubs. Pinnacle has +116 but the best I can get is +101. Passing there because of the price difference but taking Houston again tonight with Harrell at Anaheim +161.
Quiet Week Busy Weekend
Not much doing the last few days with PSG giving Barca a scare in the quarterfinals our only action the last few days. One play this morning with a few more sure to come as I have time:
Cubs (Villaneuva) +145
Adding: Astros (Norris) +176
Astors are in Anaheim and I like fading Tommy Hanson here against Houston’s “Ace”
MLS
LA Galaxy @ Dallas U2.5 -125
I don’t actually know what Dallas’s team is called.
Tuesday
Took a few days off on holiday. Went 1-1 on baseball plays last Thursday and am 1-3 for the season (-1.68u)
No plays today with the Champions League about to kickoff and nothing in baseball tonight. Superdork on both league sides are not off to a good start.
Baseball Plays
NY Yankees @ Detroit Tigers -1.5 @ +118 for 18 Units
The Yankees are struggling at the moment, let’s ride the wave. And who the fuck is C C Sabathia these days anyway? And we get Verlander.
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays Over 8 @ -101 for 10 Units
Boston Red Sox ML @ +112 for 17 Units
Both of these bets are based on the premise that Dickey needs to show me something fast. I mean, what?
Do not like anything at all about either the Mets/Marlins or Nats/Reds games.
Update
Also took…Cleveland @ Tampa Bay +1.5 +116 for 18 Units
Arizona DBacks @ Milwaukee Under 7.5 @ -105 for 23 Units
Oakland A’s ML @ -154 for 22 Units
SD Padres @ Colorado Rockies Over 10.5 @ -110 for 28 Units
Live In Bet Update (LIBU)
Interesting scores. My Red Sox and A’s picks prove I am a genius, my Rays and Tigers picks prove I know nothing. Watching the Pads/Rox game where the scoreboard operator was messing with Over fans. After a double play, they left the marker like there was still a man on first. Sure enough, the next guy up gets a hit and now there were men on 1st and 2nd. I felt bad for Chacin, the poor bastard didn’t even know that if he walked the next guy the bases would be loaded. 3-1 currently in the 4th, need to get to 11.
Update
LA Angels ML @ +126 for 33.45 Units
Soccer Play
Redknapp says this game is a must win. To my ill equipped soccer ears that sounds like “aggression.”
THE PICK
Wigan @ QPR Over 2.5 -112 15 Units
As of 4/1/13 = -9.78 Units
LIVE IN BET UPDATE
A hit post, a few saves, and Bobby Zamora unintentionally, but unquestionably, kicking a guy in the head, resulting in a red card, all seem to kill any chances of my bet. The crowd is booing the fouled player on Wigan for having his head recklessly placed on top of his shoulders with no regard for Zamora’s cleats.
