Free Money Alert: Code Green
I don’t like to recommend any of my hometown teams often for a bet….I actually think it is bad luck.
I’ve even done the most cardinal sin, and once bet against them vs Orlando in the Eastern Conference Finals in 2010 while they were up, 3-to-1, going into Orlando for Game 5 (Orlando -4).
Our friend Francis, while at the Everett de Castle lounge drinking beer and kvetching about the series, blurts out:
“Dude, Perkins has one more tech to go (before an auto game suspension…otherwise known as the “Rasheed Wallace Award”). It’s David Stern. The refs will fuck us over. They’ll get one more game in Boston just for the ratings”.
And I was like……
holy shit……….
FREE MONEY*
The Celtics line now at +2 (was at +1.5 at 6pm) at home against the New York Knickerbockers is a very good play tomorrow.
The Knicks, after being up 3-0 in the best of 7, dominating every second half, and nearly coming back from a 20 point deficit in the 4th game……have looked absolutely atrocious 7 out the last 8 quarters. They are a shooting team; so if they don’t shoot well, they don’t win. That’s the usual stock analysis of a “shooting team”.
They are also NOT a passing team, because some players on their team….well they just refuse to do it. This despite having Jason Kidd and Raymond Felton on the team. They’ll have their moments, but at times, I feel like I’m watching Darts playing NBA Jam with just Melo and JR Smith…….and no one else exists on the Knicks offense. Iman Shumpert’s points only happen when the ball somehow finds the way into his hands by the grace of God.
Did you know that Carmelo Anthony had *2* passes in Game 1? No, not assists (he had only 1 of those..here is wife Lala celebrating that here)……but passes. Carmelo seems like the type of guy who probably doesn’t pass the salt at the dinner table, never mind off of a pick and roll (which Felton has abused with Chandler all series…….the Celtics have no answer for Felton. This may be the reason why the Knicks don’t run it all the time).
You’d think passing the ball against an older, slower team like the Celtics would be a strategy to use?
JR Smith went 0-11 in Game 5 before his first FG. Do you know how hard that is to do?
Throw in the the stupid black suit karma factor (do they wear them again here?), the Celtics’ guile despite playing just a 6.5 man rotation in Game 5, down 11-0 to start the game (40+ min for Pierce/KG is a concern), the fact that NBA Marketing executives have about potentially 5-7% of their yearly sales riding on a Boston/NY Game 7 (esp with THIS storyline), and the fact that a Boston team has kind of done this to a New York team before……
……+2 is a great play.
The final kicker? There have been 11 times an NBA team down 3-0, has won the next two games. Every time that a Game 6 was played at the team’s home court……the home team has won. That goes for teams who were ahead OR behind in the series.
Coincidentally, Houston also is hosting a Game 6 (HOU -1), despite being down 3-0, now 3-2, vs an Westbrook-less OKC.
Mathematically, the streak will have to be broken. It can’t go on for infinity, it’s not a Derby**, and it rarely happens…so odds are 1 out of the two teams Friday will break it (although for those keeping with the math, a parlay with Boston and Houston line is +264).
Why not Houston?
OKC has Durant…and the Knicks do not.
*He was right (and also another reason I bet the C’s in game 6 of that series using this logic….the Lakers had clinched the night before to the Finals, and wouldn’t you know it….two quick fouls on Howard in the 1st quarter of Game 6!).
** Kentucky Derby pick this weekend: Itsmyluckyday (12/1)…just because it looks like an online poker name
Thursday
One MLS play tonight. Going with the public if there is such a thing in MLS with Portland tonight -143 at home to the Revs. Barcelona’s loss at home yesterday is basically why there was no bet on Madrid the day before. Absolutely anything can happen in these two leg games when the 2nd leg home team is trailing.
Even more nothing in baseball today and it’s not just me continuing to be nitty with the lines. Tigers/Astros under 9.5 is the closest but we need lineups so this will be a game-time decision.
MLB 5/2
HO! I just went from lukewarm to hot. Over the last few days we have gone from being down 100 Units as of 4/1 to up 100 Units. The only game I like with any measure of confidence at the moment is
O’s ML +106 @ Angels @ 24
I think we like the Over in the Royals game but I am going to hold off until I see a lineup. Update to follow either way.
UPDATE
Rays @ Royals Over 7.5 -102 @ 24
MLB Play 5/1
Kudos to Louis for nailing his expected outcome in the Real Madrid 2nd leg. Still going pretty good at the moment on baseball picks. Several plays I like today after not really liking anything yesterday. See how these go.
Rays @ KC Royals ML +100 @ 24
Padres @ Chi Cubs ML +107 @ 24
Angels @ A’s Under 8.5 -113 @ 18
SF Giants ML +107 @ Arizona @ 24
Chi White Sox ML +104 @ Texas @ 24
Wednesday
Our leans did well last night with Cleveland smushing the Phillies and the Marlins winning in their last at-bat again. Out third lean that I think was unposted was Toronto over Boston. All of these were 10-15 points off of where they would have been a play. Our actual play on Arizona lost but our total covered so we were even on the day. 9-7 +4.06 for April
In soccer, Madrid did in fact win 2-0 yesterday with two late goals, but both sides had lots of chances and it was a miracle under.
Not much to look at today. Cleveland’s line moved 20 points overnight after their 14-2 win. I would take Colorado-LA Over 7 if it were still available, but it’s unlikely to move back down from 7.5. Will update per usual with any plays.
MLB 4/30
On a decent roll at the moment. Let’s try to keep it going.
Nationals @ Braves Over 7 -114 @ 24
Like Louis I also like the Marlins to beat the Mets, but such a wager would be OB for me. More to follow.
UPDATE
Fully expected to make more bets tonight but didn’t like a damn thing. Clinched a push in the Nats/Braves over with a Tim Hudson HR off Bryce Harper’s glove in right field and then reached full on cover territory later that same inning. In Padres/Cubs action tonight we were reminded of one of the immortal gambling axioms. Always check the wind at Wrigley for O/U. This is gambling 101. Ignore it at your own peril.
Tuesday Night MLB
SF (Bumgarner) @ Arizona (Cahill) +104
As previously mentioned, O’s/Mariners Over 7 -110
Very tempted to take Miami again tonight, but the line is unlikely to move enough in time.
NL Superdork May Update
For the two people that care, here is where my team stands after one month in the NL Superdork:
| Rank | Team | BA | HR | SB | RP | ERA | WHIP | W | S | Total |
| 1st | Casey | 0.273 | 38 | 18 | 207 | 3.95 | 1.258 | 10 | 8 | 69.5 |
| 2nd | Blasters | 0.283 | 26 | 11 | 156 | 2.88 | 1.133 | 9 | 13 | 63.5 |
| 3rd | Poobahs | 0.224 | 27 | 19 | 183 | 3.79 | 1.244 | 13 | 8 | 61.5 |
| 4th | TheEnd | 0.260 | 37 | 14 | 200 | 2.71 | 1.305 | 6 | 17 | 60 |
| 5th | TeamLou | 0.224 | 27 | 15 | 162 | 3.13 | 1.133 | 16 | 2 | 57.5 |
| 6th | OddOne | 0.243 | 40 | 17 | 251 | 4.16 | 1.283 | 13 | 5 | 57 |
| 7th | ACCBoys | 0.263 | 28 | 15 | 179 | 4.30 | 1.247 | 11 | 10 | 56.5 |
| 8th | Maniacs | 0.257 | 26 | 10 | 184 | 3.20 | 1.142 | 14 | 2 | 56 |
| 9th | SlumpBustr | 0.247 | 26 | 18 | 214 | 3.47 | 1.268 | 9 | 6 | 55.5 |
| 10th | Jaggernaut | 0.263 | 19 | 15 | 176 | 3.74 | 1.213 | 11 | 7 | 53.5 |
| 11th | Launchers | 0.265 | 12 | 16 | 174 | 4.13 | 1.287 | 15 | 8 | 50 |
| 12th | 4Unicorns | 0.267 | 17 | 8 | 173 | 3.62 | 1.170 | 13 | 6 | 49.5 |
| 13th | GreenArmy | 0.249 | 22 | 14 | 200 | 3.90 | 1.253 | 7 | 2 | 38 |
Logically, the first place team is the same one I ripped for having a horrific draft. We are using Runs Produced (RBI+Runs – HRs) instead of just RBI which is another reason I should not have drafted BJ Upton. You’ll notice my batting average is lower than the Padres or Marlins and it’s for good reason. This week alone, Venable, Upton and Laroche have gone a combined 5-64. The runs produced is simply a function of ABs and I think I will ultimately be fine there. I also spent a solid 25% of my FAAB budget this week on Kevin Gregg to give me three Cubs relievers in a desperate effort to keep pace in saves. It’s partially a function of having 13 teams, but practically every speculative reliever is already rostered. This is good in a sense because it means it will be easier to rack up a lead in wins (I lost Billingsley to injury for the season, but still have 5 very good starters and prefer to roll with 6). It’s rare that a saves guy will become available again that isn’t on a roster and I missed out on Henderson from Milwaukee in week 2.
It’s also a function of having 13 teams that there’s no clear leader and only one straggler at this point. Everyone’s team kind of sucks to one extent or another. I’ve been unable to complete any sort of trade so far and we will see if this changes at all come June. If the power comes around (of which there is plenty on my team) and I can get some saves from somewhere, I should be able to stay in the upper half.
Here is my sad lineup heading into week 5: The players with no salary were FAAB’d onto the roster. We get 2 bench spots and unlimited DL spaces.
| Pos | Active Batters | Salary | BA | R | HR | RBI | SB |
| C | Miller, Corky(C) CIN | 0.125 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| C | Ramos, Wilson(C) WAS | 8 | 0.3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 1B | Gonzalez, Adrian(1B) LAD | 27 | 0.3333 | 7 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| 2B | Uggla, Dan(2B) ATL | 13 | 0.1772 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| 3B | Headley, Chase(3B) SD | 20 | 0.25 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| SS | Pastornicky, Tyler(2B,SS) ATL | 0.1429 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| MI | Schumaker, Skip(2B,OF) LAD | 1 | 0.1389 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| CI | Votto, Joey(1B) CIN | 35 | 0.2929 | 17 | 4 | 11 | 1 |
| OF | Blanco, Gregor(OF) SF | 4 | 0.2812 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 |
| OF | Pence, Hunter(OF) SF | 21 | 0.2596 | 11 | 4 | 14 | 4 |
| OF | Robinson, Derrick(OF) CIN | 0.2353 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| OF | Upton, B.J.(OF) ATL | 26 | 0.1461 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| OF | Venable, Will(OF) SD | 13 | 0.2059 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 3 |
| U | LaRoche, Adam(1B) WAS | 14 | 0.1429 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Injured (C) | Hanigan, Ryan(C) CIN | 4 | 0.0789 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Injured (SS) | Gregorius, Didi(SS) ARI | 1 | 0.4074 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Minors (3B) | Rendon, Anthony(3B) WAS | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Minors (OF) | Colvin, Tyler(1B,OF) COL | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitchers | |||||||
| Pos | Active Pitchers | Salary | ERA | WHIP | W | K | S |
| P | Burnett, A.J.(P) PIT | 6 | 2.829 | 1.1714 | 2 | 48 | 0 |
| P | Camp, Shawn(P) CHC | 6.968 | 1.8387 | 1 | 9 | 0 | |
| P | Gregg, Kevin(P) CHC | 0 | 0.9375 | 0 | 6 | 4 | |
| P | Lee, Cliff(P) PHI | 27 | 3.028 | 1.0374 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| P | Lynn, Lance(P) STL | 9 | 3.103 | 1.1379 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| P | Marmol, Carlos(P) CHC | 12 | 4.219 | 1.875 | 2 | 11 | 2 |
| P | Nolasco, Ricky(P) MIA | 2 | 3.821 | 1.1887 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| P | Villanueva, Carlos(P) CHC | 1 | 2.292 | 0.8208 | 1 | 29 | 0 |
| P | Ziegler, Brad(P) ARI | 1 | 2.812 | 1.125 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Injured (P) | Billingsley, Chad(P) LAD | 5 | 3 | 1.4167 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Injured (P) | Hudson, Daniel(P) ARI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Active: 23, Injured: 4, Minors: 2 | |||||||
Tuesday
Both our MLB plays won last night. Miami defied the odds getting a run in the bottom of the 9th and then two in the 15th to win 4-3. I also put in a 1u play on Villa about 2 minutes before kickoff that also won (and that I didn’t post). I watched the 2nd half at a bar nearby and also ‘won’ a free beer as the crowds were not out for a Monday afternoon relegation scrap.
A number of games were flagged for me this morning but with no day games we will see how the lines move. One is in Cleveland where Pat’s boy Zach McAllister is up against Roy Halladay and the Phillies. McAllister is the league definition of average which is something Halladay is aspiring to be at this point in the season. Will update per usual once the lineups start to appear.
I don’t bet many totals, but there is one today early: Baltimore (Hammel) @ Seattle (Maurer) Over 7 -110
Pinnacle has 7.5 hence the early bet.
Lastly, I don’t think I am going to bet this, but Madrid has a non-zero chance of overturning their 4-1 deficit at home to Dortmund. They probably end up a goal short.
More later.
Monday
Everything lost on Saturday and there were no plays on Sunday. 6-5 +2.61 on baseball for the season. My soccer feed is broken at the moment but the total is +4u.
Two leans today at least one of which will likely be a play. Seattle with Saunders and Miami with Fernandez. Thankfully no games until 7 EDT tonight. Will update closer to game time. Big game for the Villa today and an NL Superdork update coming tomorrow.
EDIT: Miami (Fernandez) +140 at home to Mets (Harvey)
Seattle (Saunders) +105 at home to Baltimore (Britton)
