NFL Week 13
Colts +3
Chargers -2.5 (-125)
TEN at NE OVER 43
LA Rams at Green Bay UNDER 47
TEASER +150: NYJ +2.5, MIA +1, GB +1
SUPER PICKS (26-25 season): BUF -6, IND+3, LAC -2.5, HOU -2.5, GB +1
CASTLE PARLAY (my pick BOLD): NE ML -303, PHI ML -200, LAC ML -156, MIN +4, JAX +2
DFS:
NFL Thanksgiving
Turkey Teaser: Detroit +3, Dallas -7, Buffalo -6
Oakland at Dallas UNDER 51.5 (-115)
Prop: D.Swift (DET) to have at least 1 TD +111
DFS:
NFL Week 11
Steelers +6
de facto home game for Pittsburgh in LA vs Chargers.
Detroit +13
They have rookie QB but I dunno if Cleveland is 13 points better than anyone right now.
NO +3
Toss up game where we are getting points.
BAL -1.5
Line started at -6!
Arizona at Seattle UNDER 45.5
Both teams banged up for divisional tilt
TEASER +150: NE -7, BUF -7, SF -6.5
SUPER PICKS (25-25 year): NO +3, DET +13, TEN -10, PIT +6, MIA -3
CASTLE DEGEN PARLAY (my pick BOLD): BAL -4, MIA -3.5, NO +3, PIT +6, KC -2.5, CAR -3
DFS:
Week 10 NFL
Detroit +9 (-110)
Got this earlier in the week, before Ben got the human malware. Steelers have a habit of getting out to big leads and letting teams and crappy QBs back into games.
Colts -10 (-115)
Now at 10.5. Just gonna keep betting against the Jags; the Bills loss last week probably ML upset of the year.
Seattle at Green Bay UNDER 49.5 (-110)
One QB is coming off hand surgery, another off COVID. And it might snow.
ATL ML +320
Only taking this so I can livebet Dallas later when Atlanta gets a lead they’ll eventually blow (sorry Lou)
SUPER PICKS (23-22 on year): Colts -10, DET +9, ATL +8, LAC -3, NE -1
Castle Parlay (my pick in BOLD):
| SF +3.5 |
| NO +3 |
| ATL +8 |
| NYJ +13 |
| IND -10.5 |
| NE -1 |
DFS:
Week 9 NFL
Buffalo -14.5 (-110)
Back to betting against the Jags every week.
LA Chargers at Philadelphia OVER 49 (-110)
Should be 52 IMO.
LA Rams -7.5
Titans lose Derrick Henry going into SoFi vs a hot Rams team who just got Von Miller. I have no idea how they cover Cooper Kupp.
Packers +7
Are the Chiefs 7 points better than anyone NOT the Jags/Lions/Texans right now?
TEASER +150: PHI +1, CLE +1, LA RAMS -7.5
Super Picks (20-20 Season): DEN +10, GB +7, LA Rams -7.5, BUF -14.5, LA Chargers PK
Castle Degen Parlay (My pick in BOLD at +4058):
| CLE +2.5 |
| NE -3 |
| LAC ML -118 |
| DEN +10 |
| LA RAMS -7 |
| LV -3 |
DFS:
Week 8 NFL
Colts -1
Now at -3 after some COVID hit Tennessee including DC Jim Schwartz. Indy is starting to come around and this should be a contested division by the end of the year.
Lions ML +150
I don’t care 75% of the money is on Detroit. After I saw this last week when Philly coach Nick Siranni compared his team to a flower (I want the shit he is smoking), there is just no way this isn’t 1 of the 2-3 potential wins on the Lions schedule this year.
Jacksonville at Seattle OVER 43.5
Now at 45. These defenses stink.
Cincinnati -10 (EVEN)
I’m betting against Jets QB Mike White as much as I can.
Texans 1H +9.5
They have been a sticky first half team all year against these big numbers.
The Castle Degen Parlay (my pick in BOLD):
| +4576 |
| Jets |
| Falcons |
| Tampa |
| Den/Wash OVER |
| Jags / Hawks Over |
| Steelers |
Super Picks (18-17 on the season): ARI -6, CIN -10, BUF -13.5, DET +3.5, IND -1
DFS:
Week 7 Notes
Focus this week is mostly on a specific element each team is doing poorly
Arizona Cardinals – Kyler Murray no longer running (3 weeks now)
Atlanta Falcons – Ridley + others completely ineffective at WR, short yardage, esp. running, an issue since 1966
Baltimore Ravens – Injuries starting to become a problem – team has managed extremely well until this week. Difficult schedule rest of season
Buffalo Bills – Weirdly struggling in 3rd/4th and short yardage. Punting has been poor
Carolina Panthers – Leading the league in punts
Chicago Bears – Can’t pass protect which caps both current offense and Fields development
Cincinnati Bengals – Not going to say anything negative about the Bengals :)
Cleveland Browns – Very good defense masked by awful performance to date on 3rd/4th down
Dallas Cowboys – Worst in league defensively yards after catch – slants and screens will beat them
Denver Broncos – allowing pressure on 30% of dropbacks, QB + WR injuries mean not enough skill to compensate
Detroit Lions – Successful deep throws almost non-existent on offense – everything is short. Defense worst in league on passes to RBs
Green Bay Packers – Secondary holding up, Special Teams poor for 2nd year running. Difficult schedule upcoming
Houston Texans – worst offense in the league by a good margin – will likely struggle even vs. Miami and NYJ
Indianapolis Colts – Excellent rush defense (best in league?) but poor pass defense against any competent QB
Jacksonville Jaguars – Performance dropoff once trailing by 2+ scores
Kansas City Chiefs – Only forcing 4th down on roughly one of every 5 opponent 1st downs. Last in every defense category – .500 team without improvement
Las Vegas Raiders – Poor red-zone defense masking average defense otherwise – worse at home than on the road so far
Los Angeles Chargers – Worst team in the league vs. run. Part design & part personnel. Usual kicking/ST woes
Miami Dolphins – Last in QB pressures at under 3 percent – Maybe this is why Tua is so bad when pressured
Minnesota Vikings – Poor running team masked by run play volume. Need to throw 2x more which Zimmer won’t do
New England Patriots – Defense markedly worse vs. shotgun – 2 games vs. Jets skewing team evaluation
New Orleans Saints – Red zone regression coming on offense – fewest offensive plays in the league
New York Giants – Incapable of running outside – no above average positional groups
New York Jets – Worst 1st half team in league this season and worst 1st quarter team of all time
Philadelphia Eagles – Hopeless when Hurts is under center which limits offensive options
Pittsburgh Steelers – Offense up to nearly average – Smith-Shuster needs to improve and be put in better situations to convert 2nd/3rd downs
San Francisco 49ers – have been awful on offense in close/late game situations, 2nd half defense has also been poor exacerbating the problem
Seattle Seahawks – Zero (0) for Three (3) on 4th down attempts for the entire season
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Pass defense has held up so far but reliant on pass rush and facing below avg. QBs – Elite offense can and will carry team
Tennessee Titans – Can’t cover slot receivers – Overall defense not awful but extremely variable week-to-week
Washington Football Team – Offensive redzone a huge problem – drives to GB 24, 27, 1, 3, 12 and 27 end in 3 combined points
Week 7 NFL Plays
Tampa -11
Tampa is banged up, but so is Chicago, and I just don’t know how Chicago scores on the road with a running QB vs a top 3 running defense even with Lavonte David out. Plus Matt Nagy will fuck it up at some point.
Eagles at Raiders OVER 48.5 -110
These defenses stink. Eagles might be a play too, as a lot of Philly fans probably in Vegas this weekend to watch game. The Gruden firing might be GOOD for the Raiders; they played looser last week and it showed, granted against a meh Broncos team.
TEASER +150: NE -7, BAL -6.5, GB -8.5
PARLAY MLs +125: NE -320, GB -415, TB -650, LAR -1400, HOU -2000
Super Picks: (0-5 last week, 15-15 on season): SEA +5, Tampa -11.5, LA Rams -15, PHI +2, DEN +3.5
The Degen Castle Parlay:
So doing a weekly parlay with 5 of my friends; we each get a pick and throw in money each week (my pick in BOLD):
| Ravens/Bengals Under 46 |
| Eagles +3 |
| KC – 4 |
| Washington +8.5 |
| TB -11 |
| Bengals +6.5 |
| Odds: +4576 |
| 30 to pay 1376 |
DFS:
NFL Week 6
Dolphins -3 (-130)
Totally forgot this game was at 9:30am in London. Jags might win because Dolhpins also bad, but betting against Urban Meyer every week. Only another 8-10 weeks of this money train.
Chiefs at Washington OVER 55
This is the biggest over ever at FedEx Field. Hope the grass doesn’t screw us over, although Chiefs giving up 7.1 yard per play lol
Denver -3.5 (-115)
After the Gruden emails fiasco, the Raiders might be cooked for a few weeks with the interim coach coming in.
Houston +10
Colts keep everybody in games (or blow them all together)
Cowboys at Patriots UNDER 50.5 (-115)
Total should be 48.
TEASER +150: PIT -5, KC -7, CAR +1
SUPER PICKS (15-10 on the season) PHI +7, MIA -3.5, PIT -4.5, HOU -10, DEN -3.5
DFS:
NFL Week 5
We have a new pod out! We talk about Lou’s HFA points ratings Home vs Away, the shittiest defenses so far, how the Falcons & Giants coaches decision making sucks the life from the collective fanbases’ souls, and the week 5 lines:
Now for this week’s picks:
TEN -3.5 (-120)
This is now at -4.5. The Titans are banged up, have the worst secondary in football, and coming off a loss to the woeful Jets… but they are at least a professional football team with a professional football head coach. The Jags players are laughing at theirs.
DET +10 (-110)
This started at 7.5 and is now at 10… I don’t understand it. I don’t think the Vikings are 10 points better than anybody not named the Texans. Detroit is not good but they are competitive every week and they have had cover sweats in all of their games.
Chicago at Las Vegas OVER 45 (-110)
Will be a fun atmosphere with Bears fans in Vegas today. The only thing worse than Matt Nagy’s play calling is the Raiders’ O-Line. The Bears defense has not been good this year. The Raiders may also not be totally up for this game after the tropey email Gruden wrote in 2011 that was reported.
Buffalo at KC OVER 56 (-110)
Just keep betting KC OVERs until they don’t hit.
TEASER +150: Cowboys -7, Patriots -9, Arizona -6
SUPER PICKS (11-9 on the season): NE -8, DET +10, TEN -4, IND +7, ARI -5.5
DFS:
