These Teams Stink
As do my college football picks. 0-3 to start the “season.” No opponents on these as it doesn’t matter and I only have a vague idea as to who the opponents are anyway.
Connecticut +6 +105
South Alabama +8.5 -110
NFL
Dallas @ Kansas City -3 -110
On holiday the next two weeks. No September baseball as you all have obviously noticed. Three sports is too many to keep up with.
Football Stuff
Going over currently open bets, as well as submitting my picks for Over/Under Season Totals. Speaking of which, the Indiana play took a hit last night with a home loss to Navy. Indiana looks to be able to score points with relative ease but they had genuine problems on the defensive side. Hopefully this was more of a case of facing a weird offense (triple option). We shall see. Aside from that, bets I am the house for…
Oakland Raiders Under 5.5 (-229) 150 Units
Oakland Raiders League Worst Record (+225) 30 Units
And bets on my end…
Cincy to win AFC (+1200) 15 Units
I really didn’t think Andy Dalton was going to be good in the pros, but he has progressed to the point for me that I actually forget it’s Andy Dalton who is out there.
5 Point Pick – Browns Over 6
Hear me out. Pitt and Balt seem to be both getting worse these days. Cleveland has a favorable stretch of 3 home games early on where they play Cincy, Buffalo on a very short week, and then have a week and a half before Detroit comes in. Trent hitting his prime.
4 Point Pick – Panthers Under 7
You know how Harbaugh is all about trying to prevent Kapernick from getting hurt? Do you know who you don’t hear being a part of that conversation? Ron Rivera, who is coming across as the equivalent of an absentee father with Newton. If Newton gets injured at any point early, a plausible scenario given the distressing fact that he was Carolina’s leading rusher last year, this Under is a lock. Steve Smith aint getting any younger, their running backs aint getting any healthier.
Side Note, I love how confident I sound when making picks.
3 Point Pick – Packers Under 10.5
In Simmons’ season preview he rightly points out how difficult the Packer away schedule is.
2 Point Pick – Falcons Over 10
I see this as Atlanta signing up for making a run this year. There is no way Gonzalez plays a down in the league after this year. Steve Jax is never going to be as productive moving forward as he will be this year. Good chance the same can be said for Roddy. I do not think they will feel the ripple effect of trading away a chunk of their future for Julio at this point. Once more into the fray while you all still have legs.
1 Point Pick – Patriots Under 11
They have an easy schedule, they play in the easiest division of the easier conference. All they do is win double digit games of every year. But my God did they look awful in the preseason. I put next to no faith, stock, belief in preseason football, except when I want to.
NCAA Plays Week Whatever This Is
Pleas keep in mind these are miniscule bets and I’m not currently planning on watching any college football whatsoever. I wanted Illinois on this list of plays today, but Bookmaker blows as you’re all aware.
Duke @ Memphis +4.5
Bowling Green @ Kent or Kent State +7
Minnesota @ New Mexico State +16
Why is Minnesota playing at New Mexico State? I honestly have no idea.
NFL Season Wins 2013
Back temporarily after a life break because as much as we wish it were the case, gambling comes in a solid 2nd or 3rd on the life priority scale. I’m traveling again soon so baseball is likely done for me on the season, but we’ll see how it goes now that fantasy drafts are completed.
Quickly for the uninitiated, Pat and I pick five teams with confidence scoring for Over or Under the Season Wins Pinnacle line. Winner gets a pub crawl and the loser also gets a pub crawl. It’s a pretty sweet system. Related, Sean and I both agree that betting on failure is a lot more rewarding. Forward!
5) Oakland Raiders UNDER 5.5
I’ll see if Pat will take my action on worst team in the NFL which would payout much better than the -229 currently on Oakland here. I would be shocked if this over hit.
4) San Diego Chargers UNDER 7.5
The most succinct paragraph I could find on the 2013 Chargers
San Diego Chargers. Let’s review: this team finished 22nd in offensive DVOA this year, with the worst adjusted sack rate in the league, and their major offseason fix was adding Danny Woodhead. They drafted D.J. Fluker to help protect the immobile Philip Rivers at right tackle. I think D.J. Fluker is a guard. They installed King Dunlap at left tackle. Nobody thinks King Dunlap is a left tackle. They lost promising hybrid endbacker Melvin Ingram for the season with an ACL tear, and their solution was to call up Dwight Freeney. That would be awesome if it was 2003. It is not 2003. Perpetually injured Derek Cox is their No. 1 cornerback, draft question mark Shareece Wright is ostensibly the No. 2, and offseason waiver claim Johnny Patrick and camp cut Richard Marshall are the depth at the position. The Raiders are a bigger mess, but there’s no chance the Chargers are winning eight games when the only phase of the game they can claim as a strength is stopping the run.
3) Cincinnati Bengals OVER 8.5
Like Sean, I like the Bungles this season.
2) Carolina Panthers OVER 7
Cam Newton > Ron Rivera I hope.
1) New York Jets UNDER 6.5
I don’t like this nearly as much as others do, but given my lack of NFL following this offseason I am lacking any more teams I have a strong opinion about.
Over Easy
I think Collinsworth during last nights incredibly long game (only outlasted by the Yankees-Red Sox game that lasted to the 11th) said it best: defenses are going to have a hard time early on, especially when the weather is warm, to keep up with hurry up offenses this season. For Manning, it makes sense: he’s been running it his whole life, has great weapons on the outside, and many teams find it foreign physically to keep up in the rare Mile high air. Add the “Kevin Ogletree Award” winner of 2013 Julius Thomas in the mix, and Denver might average not only 33.5 points at home, but 30 overall (I think its only been done 3 times).
That being said, I am bullish on overs this week, especially in games in nice weather:
Falcons at Saints Over 54 -110 (now at 55 -111, could go to 54.5 -115)
In da Dome, Payton is back, neither team has much of a pass rush, and both teams are loaded on offense. Plus, these two teams hate each other. This could be the game of the day.
New England at Buffalo Over 49-116 (now 51 even)
Brady comes out and tries to match Peyton Manning’s (who I have in 3 fantasy leagues) record day. Plus the Bills are missing Safety Stephon Gilmore (a former Gowin Alumnus of the South Carolina Gamecocks) as well as Jarius Byrd (in trade rumor) being questionable with a foot injury. I’ll also probably tease this.
NY Giants versus Dallas Over 49.5 -105 (this will move wildly before kickoff)
NBC/NFL will ensure that this game also takes 4.5 hours (as well as Garrett throwing on every down).
KC at Jacksonville Over 42.5 -110
Well, why the fuck not! These teams are due to play in a shootout by default at some point, right? And Andy Reid is an offensive genius….you should see this guy work on a rack of ribs!
Miami at Cleveland 41 -110
Just a test, as UConn’s Jim Calhoun would say, “Not a dime” on this game. If you think on betting on anything in this game, you should re-assess your life immediately and probably call up Gambler’s Anonymous at 1-800-IAMAFUCKINGDEGEN
(BTW: Parlay of all of these is $25 to win $610…does anyone have a cell phone?)
Carolina ML +156
I’m intrigued here because we’re at home, with a decent QB (Newton has ALOT to prove this year), nice weather, and the whole “West Coast-to-East Coast” trend (which got broken this year, but I think that is more of an outlier). Does Seattle have the best defense in the NFL? Maybe. But they are missing players due to suspension and they are young so its a defense which will improve over the year. Also since I have Lynch in 2 fantasy leagues, this is a nice hedge. I just am always worried Ron Rivera steps on his dick….although, he’s going up against Pete Carroll, so that could be a wash.
Good luck, all: I look forward to hearing Pat Darts’ rationale when the subject of taking the Raiders (+374 at IND) and Terrelle Pryor on the road, comes up on Sunday.
A New Season
As the 2013 NFL season approaches, it’s a clean slate for everybody. You know, like when a coach calls a timeout before an opposing FG….and the kicker misses the FG.
I have various future action this year:
Cincinnati (+215, now to +200) to win AFC North
I’m counting on a Lewis-less Baltimore decline (also, their slot WR and backup tight end combing age would be eligible for Medicare), a depth deprived Steelers team (with no offensive line), and the poor Browns to contribute to one of the weaker divisions of the year. I believe Cincy, on paper: has the NFLs 2nd best defense (behind Seattle), unique weapons on the outside in Gresham and AJ Green (the second best WR in the NFL) and they are deep in the RB department. Their second half schedule is SUPER weak too. They might start the year 2-3 or 1-4 and finish 11-5.
Chargers Under 7.5 (-125)
Fuck Philip Rivers. That is all.
Here’s also some random UFC action tonight (hint: bet fighters FROM Brazil fighting IN BRAZIL vs fighters who AREN’T); I’ll post my NFL picks later in the week
Pro-Am Football
The easiest money you will win this year on anything is going to be betting the Over on Indiana college football total wins. I asked Lou how much I was possibly allowed to bet on one thing and he said, “don’t you owe me money?” Well played. Indiana is going to smush their Over, please remember you heard this here first on Aug 26th, year of Our Lord 2013. The Vegas number is 5.5, the real number should be 6.25, the actual number will be at least 7. This is a thing that will happen.
The Bet
Indiana Over 5.5
UPDATE
There will definitely be more of these to follow but IU is my big play. The juice on the bet is absurd (-155). Vegas realizes they are going to win at least 6. I would honestly rather have 6 at even money. Lame, se la vi.
UPDATE II
The Indiana action wound up being the only thing I genuinely liked. I would love to bet the Oklahoma under, not really as an indication of the team’s potential weaknesses as a recognition of how difficult their schedule is, but @ 8.5 Vegas is as always a step ahead. As with baseball this year, I will make up for this lack of early action with oodles of regular season plays, starting in earnest Week 2.
Wednesday
No plays today as anything close already happened in the day games. Close loser last night in Miami which obviously pays out negative as the Marlins lost 5-4. More tomorrow…
Back in Action
Slowly after a busy weekend gambling in person.
Dodgers (Capuano) @ Fish (Turner) +118
Friday
Back with a winner yesterday as the Sox made Ben Affleck Day come true again by conspiring to lose a very winnable game 2-1 scoring the one run on 11 hits. 13-8 +5.4 for August to date. One play so far today and it also involves the Sox hosting the Yankees:
Yankees (Pettitte) @ Sox (Doubront) Under 9 -105
Lots of other options today but nothing clear-cut so far. Milwaukee, Philly and Minnesota are tops for sides, Reds and Phillies again for overs at the moment. Nothing on the day games so expect one update with any plays in a few hours.
UPDATE: Dodgers (Greinke) @ Phillies (Lee) -105
