MLB Summary 2013
Since the playoffs are over, it’s well past time I got this up and posted. 2013 was a good season for me and anyone who followed along, as we finished well on the plus side. I definitely want to continue refining the picks machine for next season, but for a first run I’m very pleased with the results. Totals were a highlight and these results would look even better had away teams been excluded entirely as they were only dropped in June and showed the only substantial loss of any subset. I also took off most of September, hence the low number of plays there.
| W | L | T | $ | |
| April | 9 | 7 | 4.06 | |
| May | 12 | 13 | -0.12 | |
| June | 11 | 10 | 1 | 2.1 |
| July | 19 | 12 | 7.61 | |
| August | 12 | 7 | 5.34 | |
| September | 1 | 2 | -1.04 | |
| 64 | 51 | 1 | 17.95 | |
| W | L | T | $ | |
| Away | 6 | 12 | -4.04 | |
| Home | 39 | 34 | 8.24 | |
| Totals | 19 | 5 | 1 | 13.75 |
| 64 | 51 | 1 | 17.95 |
In fantasy, I managed two cashes, including a 2nd place in high stakes NL where I could have conceivably finished anywhere between 1st and 5th. A late season pickup of LaTroy Hawkins and his 13 saves gave me a much needed boost in saves, but I ultimately ouldn’t overcome drafting both Dan Uggla and BJ Upton.
Lastly, in Pat and I’s MLB Totals, we both did much, much better than usual. I had a chance at a perfect 10 for 10 but finished a few wins short on a couple of teams. Here’s the breakdown:
| Lou | |||
| Miami | Over 63 | 62 | -10 |
| LA Dodgers | Under 91.5 | 92 | -9 |
| Philadelphia | Under 84 | 73 | 8 |
| Kansas City | Over 77.5 | 86 | 7 |
| NY Yankees | Under 88 | 85 | 6 |
| San Diego | Over 74.5 | 76 | 5 |
| White Sox | Under 81 | 63 | 4 |
| Milwaukee | Under 81 | 74 | 3 |
| Cleveland | Over 77.5 | 92 | 2 |
| Arizona | Over 82.5 | 81 | -1 |
| Total | 15 | ||
| Pat | |||
| Detroit | Under 92.5 | 93 | -10 |
| San Diego | Over 74.5 | 76 | 9 |
| Cincinnati | Under 91 | 90 | 8 |
| St. Louis | Over 86 | 97 | 7 |
| Seattle | Over 77.5 | 71 | -6 |
| Chicago Cubs | Over 72.5 | 66 | -5 |
| NY Mets | Under 75 | 74 | 4 |
| Kansas City | Over 77.5 | 86 | 3 |
| Atlanta | Under 87.5 | 96 | -2 |
| LA Angels | Under 91.5 | 78 | 1 |
| Total | 9 |
First, note that with one more Tigers loss, Pat wins here. Second, for anyone who bet the Dodgers over, it was a Miracle Cover as their rise from the ashes was well documented over the season, and they still only covered by one game. I had real life money on Miami Over 63, but finished one win short of a push on that as injuries hurt an already MLB worst offense. The Marlins run differential was similar to the Phillies and White Sox, but with runs being so rare, it’s hard to rack up enough wins. I’d say lesson learned, but I knew the risks going in and still liked the bet. For the other two season bets, Cleveland came up one win short in the Central at +1000, but Oakland cashed as they somewhat easily won the West at +445 with Texas collapsing in September.
We are definitely doing all of this again next season, though plan on slow going for me until May.
Monday
No plays for me on Sunday on what would have likely been a breakeven day judging by my shortlist. The Jaguars have kind of thrown off the lines and stats this year as they are an order of magnitude worse than whatever team (Tampa) is #31, but it’s traditionally very, very difficult for one NFL team to beat another by 14+ points on any consistent basis. Seattle has shown that, squeaking out wins against two bottom 10 teams the last two weeks.
Pat is on the Bears tonight and I am too, Chicago +10 -110 for me. Public is ~30% on Chicago tonight and that’s just good enough for me to wade in with a play. I would pass on the 9.5 that was being shown earlier.
Also Arkansas was a loser on Saturday in my only college play. My Auburn under is officially toast as well with this win, but that was bound to happen after their A&M victory a few weeks back. Still Alive in my other four futures for likely a break even-ish season on those. I’ll update my season record once I finish the spreadsheets for college.
No hockey yesterday or today and only a slight possibility for tomorrow. As mentioned, I tweaked the system to reduce the volume of plays, hopefully that will be a good thing. 5-5 +1.85 there.
NFL Plays
These plays are @ 22
Falcons +9.5 -113
Minn +9.5 -114
Saints -5.5 -105
Tenn -3 -104
These plays are @ 14
Titans/Rams Under 40.5 -108
Vikings/Cowboys Under 50.5 -102
Month To Date : -3.21
****UPDATE****
These are @ 16
Tampa +15.5 -101
Patriots -6 +100
Browns ML +106
****UPDATE #2****
Good day today so far. Let’s try to keep the mojo.
Texans -1 +102 @ 22
****UPDATE the Third****
Tough beat in the Texans game. Cannot complain too much as our Viking/Cowboy under required a missed extra point towards the end to hit. Tonight we go with Bears +10 -109 @ 21
NCAA Football Plays
Two to start, more will follow. A hot name in ACC football not playing for a marquee team is Michael Campanaro. Apparently Wake Forest about 3.5 games into the season threw out their entire game plan and switched to a more aerial based attack and Campanaro has been doing just fine. Syracuse is coming off a bye which is problematic on our end, but life isn’t perfect. Purdue usually plays Ohio St tough. That and an exciting QB prospect for Purdue, that’s where we’ll take our chances.
Wake Forest +4 106 @ Syracuse 18 Units
Ohio St @ Purdue +31.5 -104 17 Units
***UPDATE***
Ohio St pick was a dud, DOA. Got a bit unlucky with Wake Forest, the poor bastard I wrote about above did something to his collarbone. Forward.
Pitt @ Georgia Tech Under 52.5 -106 @ 18
Miami @ FSU Under 64 -106 @ 18
Saturday
How am I the one of the three of us betting on college football when most 12 year olds south of Maryland have more knowledge about the sport than I do? Regardless, only one play today and it’s Arkansas, one of my least favorite institutions, +7.5 at home to Auburn.
No hockey today with the more restrictive system I put on. Nashville would be on today otherwise. 1-1 yesterday and that makes me a small winner.
I don’t have anything in NFL at the moment and I’m not sure if I will be around for kickoff tomorrow. Minnesota, Jets, St. Louis, Buffalo, Washington, Philly, Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Houston are the options. That’s obviously really broad for a reason as I haven’t looked in depth. Sean’s play on the Bills would be much more appealing if they weren’t on QB3 or QB4. It’s really hard to bet a future house on a third stringer, not that I wouldn’t do it in some circumstances.
Good luck to everyone.
Soccer Plays
If you read Fulham blogs, and yes, these days I actually do, there is an oppressively negative atmosphere. There are brief eruptions of “Maybe things are not that bad!” followed by weeks of claiming they are actually worse. For years Fulham was a tough place to play, not so much anymore. The only chance I see Fulham having is Berbs summoning some inner Man U hate and getting 2 goals out of essentially nowhere. And in the big boy affair later, Liverpool is playing at an exceptionally high level currently. Enough that it is worth the gamble of betting against Arsenal at Emirates.
Plays
ML Man U -186 @ Fulham 22 Units
ML Liverpool +245 @ Arsenal 14 Units
Buffalo Wild Wings
There’s one game a year I like to speculate a big upset on, and this year it’s Buffalo +3.5 and the Money Line +165 versus Kansas City.
The Chiefs are undefeated, but also have played mostly a cupcake schedule. Their defense is legit (and healthiest out of all of the AFC contenders) but their offense is really craptastic. They don’t turn the ball over and Alex Smith manages the game very well. They also are experts at having 3-and-outs after their defense gets a turnover. They should, however, give Denver a good run for their money in the AFC West just because their secondary is top 3 in the league.
I, like Darts, was rooting for the Chiefs to win last week so that they would be undefeated going into this game. They play the Broncos next week, so the “overlook a week” alert is in effect. Buffalo plays tough at home and can make big plays (they give them up too, as told by Lou’s bad beat story).
Now if I can only just get Gus Johnson to call the game, I’d bet the future house on it:
San Diego at Washington Over 51
If I was a defensive coordinator, I would play this tape to my team to demonstrate how NOT to tackle. Also going to throw this in a teaser with New Orleans -6
Baltimore -3 (+110)
Road Favorites are 60% ATS since 2000 coming off of a bye. Jason Campbell made us some money last week (via a teaser, thank you South Carolina Gamecock K Ryan Succop). And we’re gambling……
If Percy Harvin is active this week, I might also take Seattle -17 at home versus Tampa. I just don’t see how Tampa scores in that building, especially without Doug Martin.
We leave you with this excellent video from over at Barstool Sports on various cell phone videos taken of people losing their shit at bars around the country when the Red Sox won the 2013 World Series (and I won $215 after clinching our “No manager or player will get thrown out” prop):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZbPs1o2TlQ
Friday Bets
Back on the hockey wagon today with Columbus +175 @ Pittsburgh. We’ll see if Washington and/or the Islanders make it a two-play day. There’s also a garbage college football game today that I won’t be betting on. Updates later if at all.
UPDATE: Islanders +135 @ Ottawa
Still Here
Just with nothing to gamble on. Going back few days, not only did the Rams cover but they had 1st and goal with four chances to win the game and predictably failed on all four attempts. I got cold feet after my Cardinals, Bills and Bucs forays and couldn’t bring myself to wager on yet another terrible football team with no QB. This is why systems are good for you.
Speaking of systems, I tweaked mine for NHL and it keeps coming back with no plays. This means I can’t lose anything, but it’s also very non-eventful. Buffalo and Nashville are leans and not plays for me tonight.
Lastly, following along with Sean’s NBA picks, I took a couple of futures because I can’t help myself when it comes to a good season bet. I have the Nets to win the Atlantic at -140 and Milwaukee over 28 wins at -123.
I am most likely passing on tonight’s shitty Thursday night NFL game, but the public is 4:1 on the Bungles so it’s Miami or nothing for me. I’ll probably play if the line makes it to 4 (it’s currently 3 -113). Should be some games on Sunday as the public is loading up on some of these away teams.
Free Bets are Fun
Tonight the NBA starts, and to get people to actually bet on NBA team futures, Bovada is running a promotion for a free (up to) $20 bet: if the Miami Heat 3-peat (and they are favored to do so at 21/10), everyone gets their cash back.
Here are our choices:
|
Brooklyn Nets
|
||
I think the Bulls are always one Derek Rose injury away from disaster. They also have the weakest bench, but I think the strongest coach out of all these teams (including Doc, will get to that in a minute).
Indiana is very young and balanced and talented…..but they really need another superstar scorer/identity to match LeBron and Wade. I like Coach Vogel, he’s ornery and is defensive minded. I just don’t think they have the horses to beat Miami in a 7 game series (they may face them in the ECF again).
The L.A. Clippers got Doc Rivers in the offseason, who as a coach is leaps and bounds over Vinny Del Negro (who has helped build many-a-bankroll). The problem? It probably will take Doc a year to figure out which guys on this current Clipper team are “his” guys as well as who isn’t (he is very intense…and very impatient with young players)…..as well as waiting to sign KG/Pierce in free agency next year. I will say under Doc however, Chris Paul as an MVP candidate at 10-to-1 is not a bad play in any year.
The Spurs are old, and had their run last year. This year for them will be very much like the year the Patriots are having in 2013: lots of injuries to key guys, young players stepping up and getting the job done against teams of similar competition, them getting into the playoffs, and eventually losing to a really good team with younger talent in the 1st or 2nd round.
I forgot the Brooklyn Celtics when I wrote this, but they in my opinion are just too old for a long run. They will probably face the Knicks in the first round, though, and that should be fun.
Oklahoma City is an enigma; they have the worst coach out of this lot and Westbrook isn’t due back until 2014. They just haven’t been the same team since they traded Harden. They do have Durant however, the second best player in the league.
Who did I go with? Houston at 12-to-1. A speculative play, but I really like the way their GM Daryl Morey has built the roster. The lack a true PF, but with Howard in the middle it’s probably better if they played a little smaller to offset the lost offense (plus you can focus on geting Howard the ball in the post). IMO, their bench is the best out of all of these teams. And they maybe one of the teams interested in Rondo once he becomes available at the trading deadline (so will OKC, too).
I am also betting the Miami Heat/Bulls Over tonight (188) and teasing Miami (-5) with the Lakers (+10). Why? Because I hate money, that’s why.
