“The Raiders….on offense!”
Gotta hand it to the rookie Matt McGloin (Penn State) on the road last week coming up with the win. He looked very good, and the fact Penn State runs a pro offense helps. hell, the Raiders even scored touchdowns……on offense (despite missing all of his weapons)! We like him getting a point at home to the Titans (even) this Sunday.
I also like Jacksonville +10 (-115) in Houston. They’ve covered the number the last few weeks, and this bet is more of a moratorium on the fact that Houston, I don’t think, is ten points better than ANYBODY right now.
Baltimore -3.5 (-110) vs NY Jets – I’m not enthused taking the Ravens with juice here, but the Jets on the road have just been SO bad. Having a rookie QB doesn’t help, and Anthony Allen might miss this game as well and that’s huge because Rex Ryan’s blitzing, aggressive scheme relies on a roaming, instinctive, athletic safety. They just signed Ed Reed, but he only has 2 out of the 3 left there. Also teasing this with the under at 39.
Giants/Cowboys Over 45 (-110) – Watching missed tackles is kind of fun. I get to do it every week as a Pats fan. If we could only get the Tecmo Bowl music:
Friday
Games went as expected yesterday, at least around here. UAB was an easy winner, taking their game to overtime as a +17.5 underdog and the Saints won by 4, opting to run a play on 4th down as opposed to kicking a late FG. I took a slight loss on the game after getting a late hedge in. Nothing in hockey again tonight and college football is also looking sparse tomorrow. One fake play in college hoops but no totals, and there are a bunch of games started already so no idea if I missed anything there.
Loyola Chicago +108
Current Numbers:
NCAA hoops Sides (Not for real $) 0-4-2 -4.4
NCAA Hoops Totals are 3-1 +1.9
NCAA Football: 8-8 -0.37
NFL Teasers 1-3 -2.6
NHL 9-7 +5.36
NFL: 10-5 +5.04
Thursday
Yesterday’s total was a winner in a contender for most boring college game of the season. Our fake play lost again and I think I’ll stop posting them at this point. No plays in hoops today. One football game in college, UAB +17.5. In NFL, I missed out yesterday and the line has now moved back to where it started to NO -7 or 7.5, so I am on the wrong side of this one.
Also nothing in hockey for those who are following there.
UPDATE: I am hedged out onto Atlanta +8
Wednesday
Both plays were losers yesterday, with the total getting smushed by a 103 point effort by Wisconsin. I went back and checked and Wisconsin put up 99 against Prarie View A&M in their 2011 opener and there was nothing more than an odd 90 point game against other hapless opponents over the past 10 seasons. In our three totals plays so far, two have been off by literally 50 points and the third was a one point winner. I’m going to guess there’s nothing conclusive in that.
Tonight’s total is on a snoozer, Amerian @ Ohio St. Under 127
In fake plays that will probably lose: Tulsa +6
Nothing remotely close in hockey tonight. In other news I took some early action this morning for maybe the first time ever and got Saints +7 -115 for their game at Atlanta tomorrow. The line has spiked all the way to 9.5 or 10 in some places as everyone and their extended families is taking the New Orleans. There is zero reason to bet New Orleans at this point if you haven’t already, and I’ll be looking for some creative way to have a middle open instead of being forced to cheer for the Saints, which being from Atlanta I can’t actually do.
Tuesday
More winning yesterday for those who were following along. Carolina won by four in a game I thought had a very good chance of ending in a tie or least least going to OT last night and our hockey play was a winner as Calgary won in a shootout despite conceding an equalizer with six seconds remaining in Winnipeg. No plays in the NHL tonight despite some promising early numbers.
One total in college hoops in a contender for whitest game of the season so far:
North Dakota/Wisconsin UNDER 140
One fake play that will probably lose:
Rhode Island +23
NFL Plays
For the record, these were my Week 11 picks. As we shall I am developing a hard-on for 2nd half bets. For anyone who has not experienced this you should do yourself a favor and sit in a Vegas casino as these lines are posted. You will never see crazy line fluctuations in your life like these. A line will start as a pick ’em and move to someone being a 3 point favorite in a minute…
Ravens +3 +113 @ 14
Raiders +10 +100 @ 14
Browns/Bengals Under 40 -110 @ 16
Ravens/Bears Under 40.5 -105 @ 14
Redskins +5 -108 @ 14
Redskins ML +120 @ 14
Browns -.5 -110 @ 15
Steelers ML +121 @ 14
4:00
San Diego @ Miami Over 44.5 -110 @ 17
Packers @ NY Giants ML -177 @ 66
Late Game
First score of game Non-TD +153 @ 22 (Obv)
MNF
Panthers -3 -110 @ 22
If you have been playing my action you are up somewhere like +125 Units for the month. Just saying. And yes, thats a bullshit thing to say when posting picks 2 days late
Monday
Fun day yesterday with lots of winners, hope some of you were able to follow along. Only the late, late play on Minnesota and teaser were losers thanks to the Falcons getting back to their heritage and losing horribly at home for no real reason at all. I doubled up on the Miami play and long time readers know that the Chargers are my 2nd favorite team to bet against (Dallas being #1) so that was an added bonus.
One NFL game tonight and Carolina is the side to be on. The line unfortunately won’t be moving off of 3, so I will most likely pass, but the game opened at 1 and anything up to 2.5 would be good value. Not a guarantee by any stretch, but at the very least there is no compelling reason to take New England.
There should be at least one and maybe even two hockey games tonight. I’ll update later in the evening. Season totals below…
Tracking plays in NCAA hoops are down to 0-2-2 -2.2
NCAA Hoops Totals are 2-0 +2.0 Those are real plays, albeit not for a whole lot relative to the other sports.
NCAA Football: 7-8 -1.37
NFL Teasers 1-3 -2.6
NHL 8-7 +4.01
NFL: 10-5 +5.31
EDIT: Calgary is the only hockey play tonight Flames +135
Sunday Funday
Two winners yesterday as Miss St. and the basketball under both easily covered and a push again on the tracking basketball play.
Lots of NFL plays today:
Miami +2.5 (Adding onto Miami +1 from yesterday)
Buffalo +2.5
Pittsburgh +3
Bookmaker garbage teaser: ATL +8.5, Buffalo +8.5, Denver -1.5
College Hoops:
Stony Brook +12.5
Michigan/Iowa State Under 148
NHL:
Columbus +145 @ Ottawa
UPDATE: NFL Minnesota +13
Saturday
Just waking up and there are games starting already. This must be what it feels like to live on the west coast.
College football: Probably no plays for me today. I am tempted by Louisville & Miss. St but don’t like the Bookmaker lines per usual.
EDIT: Taking Miss. St. +24 -112
College hoops: Florida Atlantic was a close loser yesterday losing by 33. One more fake play today, St. Joseph’s +4
BONUS: A real play! OSU/Marquette Under 144
NHL: Edmonton will be a play depending on where the public number ends up. 10:00 East coast time to I’ll update or not later tonight.
NFL: There will be plays tomorrow, and I’ve already got some action down on Miami+1 and Miami EVEN as that’s definitely the best play of the week.
Weekend Picks
NFL:
Baltimore and Chicago Under 44 (-105)
Teaser: Seattle (-13) and Denver (-8) and NY Giants (-6)
Oakland +9 (is it me or is this line a bit too big?)
Cleveland +6 and in teaser with Under (42)
I might also take Tampa in a pick’em after everybody and their mother bet them last Monday night versus the not-so-Incognito Dolphins. But it depends on whether Tony Gonzalez plays or not.
UFC:
Ali “Puncher King” Bagautinov +130
Georges “Rush” St. Pierre -250
Now I leave you with the “Own Goal of the Year” in basketball:
