Category: UFC
Week 5 NFL and UFC 229
Arizona at SF Over 40 (-115)
These teams will fail upward to 40 points somehow.
Chiefs vs Jaguars Over 49 (-105)
I will also take a “Will Pat Mahomes throw an INT? – Yes” prop as he is due with 15 TDs, no INT so far this year. He’s pretty much a lock for MVP, barring injury.
Raiders at Chargers Over 53 (-105)
The lack of defense in this game will be played to Benny Hill music.
TEASER @ +150:
Chargers -5
Rams -7.5
Panthers -6.5
UFC BONUS:
Tonya Evinger +135
McGregor +155
Week 3 NFL 2018
Packers -3 (-105)
This was the crowd in Washington last week. The Packers fandom travels extremely well. This will be a defacto home game for the Packers, against an average at best Washington team.
NY Giants at Houston Over 42 (-105)
These teams will fail upward to score points, IMO.
Cardinals +6 (-110)
Bears keep teams in games due to their inconsistent offense; they are young and promising however and that’s something to keep in mind next year.
PARLAY @ +375:
GB ML -150
NE ML -270
LA Rams ML -300
KC ML -280
TEASER: +150:
MIN -17
NE -7
KC -7
LA Rams -7
DFS:
UFC BONUS:
Renan Barao -160
UFC Fighters who have missed weight are 8-1 this year in fights
Week 1 NFL 2018
Cleveland +6 (-115)
This is now at 4.5 now we know that Bell is probably not playing. We have had history of going against the Steelers when they are 6 or more point favorites in the last two years (at Jets/at Miami/at Bears). They average 8 less points on the road than t home, Cleveland’s defense is good, and the Browns covered this game last year with Kizer, nevermind Tyrod Taylor (or Mayfield if Tyrod gets hurt).
Saints/Bucs Over 49.5 (-110)
It’s in the dome, should be points in this game.
Texans +6.5 (-110)
NE is only starting 3 WRs, so Texans should be able to bracket Gronk. The Texans and Watson covered in this game last year. Should be a fun, tight game and potential AFC Title Game preview. I fully expect the Texans to be up late, then Coach Bill O’Brien to nit it up to give the Pats the ball back, and Brady to win it late like he did last year.
Carolina -3 (-105)
The Gowin special. Two of the worst WR corps go at it in this one, but especially Dallas. I just don’t see how they move the balls against a very good Carolina defense at home, unless they win the field position battle by Newton throwing the ball in the dirt.
TEASER +120:
Saints -10
Vikings -6.5
Ravens -7
DFS:
NCAA BONUS:
GA vs S.Carolina Under 55 (-110)
When a point total moves 4+ from it’s originaly line (51 here), the Under hits 57% of the time
UFC BONUS:
Till vs Woodley – Fight Goes the Distance – YES @ +110
PARLAY @ +250: Suarez -500 + Magomedsharipov -1400 + Stamann +130
Belmont Stakes and UFC 225 plays
Belmont Stakes:
Justify 11/10
Tenfold 10/1
UFC 225:
Rafael Dos Anjos +115
Parlay +861
Sergio Pettis +150, Claudia Gadelha-400, Mike Jackson-200, Rafael Dos Anjos+105
NBA Playoff Memorial Day Weekend
So, I have a betting theory where I love to bet teams who come home, down 3-2, in Game 6’s of playoff series. My theory is,you usually get a team’s best and most emotional performance, at home, to force a Game 7 to keep the season alive. I think this is part of the reason why road teams lose 75% of Game 7’s: they are so gassed from the adrenaline dump the game before (as well as the usual 1 day layover flight) that they cardio dump on the road in Game 7.
My first 4 figure bet was actually a Game 6 when the Mets (I know, what a risk) were home to St Louis in 2006 with Tom Glavine on the mound (which I shipped). For this year so far, I did this with Toronto vs Boston (NHL), Milwaukee vs Boston (NBA), and Washington vs Tampa (NHL) so far this year, and we’ve hit all of them.
Now, we have 2 more this weekend in the NBA: Cavs -7 (-105) and Warriors -10 (-115).
For the Cavs, they are coming off a blowout loss where the other team shot only 36%. LeBron looked as tired as I was with a hangover after watching the game at the bar. Watch his backcourt, who has sucked ass in Boston all series, suddenly get a pep in their step for Game 6 in their home gym with the crowd behind them. The Celtics are 1-8 on the road this postseason, and they have trailed by 14 or more points in every one of those game (including the one they won). I also expect a LeBron bounce back, and I am also taking the LeBron Over Points 35 (-120) prop.
The Warriors’ line is high at -10…but it’s now at -12 with Chis Paul out with a hamstring injury (a huge injury, IMO). The Rockets are 15-9 without Paul, and 61-12 with him this year. The Warriors are a great team, and this series has been great, so I expect a Game 7 in Houston for the ages.
UFC BONUS:
Stephen Thompson -110
UFC 222
Ortega vs Edgar – Fight Goes the Distance – Yes @ -220
Alexander Hernandez +300
PARLAY: +207:
O’Malley -135
Dodson -155
Cyborg -1400
UFC 220 and Bellator 192 Picks
UFC 220:
Barroso +125
Bellator 192:
Quinton Jackson vs Chael Sonnen Will the fight go the distance? Yes @ +165
Parlay:
+102
Daniel Cormier-335
Enrique Barzola-250
Aaron Pico-900
NFL thoughts will be later
UFC 217
Rose Namajunas to win by submission +700
Rose vs Joanna Fight to go the Distance Yes @ -160
GSP vs Bisping fight to go the Distance – Yes @ -160
Aleksei Oleinik +260
PARLAY: +400
Paulo Borrachinha -350
Oleinik +255
Joanna -600
Spooky Saturday
CFL:
Eskimos vs Calgary Over 54 (-105)
MLB:
Astros vs Dodgers Over 8.5 (-115)
UFC:
Demian Maia +105
PARLAY (+151):
Maia +105 (UFC)
Lineker -500 (UFC)
Joshua -5000 (Boxing)
