Miracle Covers

FIFA World Cup 2014

A quick run down of my leans on the groups (lines from Caesar’s Palace):

Group A:

Brazil 1/4

Mexico 6/1

Croatia 8/1

Cameroon 25/1

My picks: Brazil to win the group (and 2/1 they win the whole thing), and Croatia to move onto the knockout round.  Cameroon to make it to the second round isn’t a bad play, either.  I have no faith in Mexico.  Their coach looks like he’s on meth and was on an episode of “True Detective”:

Group B:

Spain 2/7

Netherlands 5/2

Chile 9/2

Australia 25/1

My picks: Netherlands to win, Spain to move onto the second round.   Australia might not score a goal.

Group C:

Colombia 2/3

Japan 7/2

Ivory Coast 9/2

Greece 10/1

My picks: Japan to win, they are always a solid team and played well in Brazil last summer.  Colombia to move onto the second round.

Group D:

Italy 3/2

Uruguay 8/5

England 2/1

Costa Rica 18/1

My picks: Toughest group to predict.  I like Italy to win and Uruguay to move on (sorry Putland; I have a bet that the US will score more goals than UK #moneyonfire); England isn’t fit but Suarez also isn’t 100%.  Don’t be surprised to see Costa Rica pull off a shocker upset here, too in one of the games.  They are feisty.  Edison Cavani for Uruguay for Golden Goal is my *reach* pick (33/1).

Group E (totally forgot about E yesterday!):

France -125

Switzerland +250

Ecuador +400

Honduras +2800

My picks: I like France to win, and Switzerland to advance.  I also like Franc Ribery at -2800 to get caught with an underage Brazilian hooker

Group F:  

Argentina 2/9

Bosnia 13/2

Nigeria 9/1

Iran 30/1

My picks: Argentina to win (also have them 11/2 to be runner up to Brazil); Nigeria to be second (reluctantly…they need to play better defense).  Messi is due for a run, and he’s my Golden Goal pick (7/1).  I have no idea who plays for Bosnia or Iran.

Group G:

Germany 5/9

Portugal 5/2

Ghana 10/1

USA 6/1

My picks: Portugal to win, USA to finish second.  The Germans are not fit (if they were I might pick them to win)……if the US loses to Ghana, the Black Stars will finish second IMO.  The key for the US, as Lou would say, can be summarized in one word: FORWARD.

Group H:

Belgium 1/2

Russia 2/1

South Korea 6/1

Algeria 30/1

My picks: Belgium a.k.a “Everybody’s Dark Horse” to win, South Korea to finish second…..they play well as a team.

End it here with two great videos on the top moments from the World Cups’ past (long):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGBuwL6hWSo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5AbVK-bpwU

 

 

 

 

Couple Premier League Plays

Arsenal/Man U – Will both teams score?  Yes -135 @ 15

Final Score Plays Newcastle/Tott.  All plays @ 6

New 1 Tott 2 +832

New 0 Tott 2 +1148

New 1 Tott 3 +2198

Soccer

The most interesting game of the day is Tottenham at home to Man City.  The power of Gambling Christ compels me to bet Tottenham based solely on their odds.  At 3 to 1 to win at home, I have to make a small bet, and at essentially even money on a draw or better, the play has to be made.  They are simply playing too well, I have to almost ignore Man City’s great form.  Logic would dictate that if you are going to bet Tott you may as well bet the over because Man City will likely get theirs.  I will pass on this play but I think it is a decent one.  Let’s take a peak at other lines…I am surprised at how decent a favorite Sunderland is but I will pass.  What intrigues me is West Ham getting 2 goals with a healthy Andy Carroll and Villa.

Tott ML +309 @ 9

Tott + .5 -101 @ 14

West Ham +2 +107 @ 14

Aston Villa ML +152 @ 14

YTD : -34.05

***UPDATE*** As Louis is a bookie/Villa fan we are nixing the Villa bet.  It will not be counted YTD

 

Champion

Always, always fun betting on teams you can not name a player for

Premier League Week 15

Man U v. Newcastle Under 2.5 and 3 +101 @ 16

I am just not sure where the goals are going to come from.  RVP sounds doubtful, Rooney is suspended, Moyes seems naturally conservative, in my mind the best striker on the field will likely be playing for the away team, apparently the best Man U setup player of the moment has a virus…the bad part is that both of these defenses have allowed a decent number of goals this year.  See what happens.

***UPDATE***

Good for us on the 1st pick.  The next involves Fulham finally starting to get on track.  They have a new manager and look to be in sharper form since he’s been around, albeit for a very brief span of time.  This bet is being made in recognition of just how hard it seems to be to win away games in the Premier League, even against struggling teams.  I am taking Fulham not on the 1X2 soccer style betting that includes draws but on the pk line where a draw is a push.  The 1X2 payout is much better, but after all, this is still Fulham we’re talking about.  We may need some help.

Fulham pk -114 @ 15

Premier Week 12

Lots of interesting games this week.  Fulham is just so tempting to bet against every damn week at this point, I just don’t know if it is possible for them to stay as bad as they have been, though.  And Swansea has no Michu…I might still bet this anyway.  Let’s type for a while and hope I forget about it.  Where I will be putting money on things is a West Ham/Chelsea draw +294.  Winston Reid still out, but we’ll roll with this anyway.  It is going to be a twilight/evening affair so the fans will have plenty of time to get Hammered.  I like Stoke City/Sunderland under 2 and 2.5 -121 because I see both teams more interested in trying to guarantee a point via a clean sheet than in blowing away their opponent.  And I will go with Newcastle ML -124 as an indictment more against Norwich than belief that Newcastle have now found their form.  All plays are @ 15.  I would be surprised if there was not a further update for the games tomorrow and Monday.  And look, I managed to forget about Fulham.  There’s still an hour left before kickoff…

***UPDATE****

Want to bet Man City/Tott but the odds just aren’t lining up for me.

Am taking West Brom ML +116 @ 16

Soccer Plays

If you read Fulham blogs, and yes, these days I actually do, there is an oppressively negative atmosphere.  There are brief eruptions of “Maybe things are not that bad!” followed by weeks of claiming they are actually worse.  For years Fulham was a tough place to play, not so much anymore.  The only chance I see Fulham having is Berbs summoning some inner Man U hate and getting 2 goals out of essentially nowhere.  And in the big boy affair later, Liverpool is playing at an exceptionally high level currently.  Enough that it is worth the gamble of betting against Arsenal at Emirates.

Plays

ML Man U -186 @ Fulham 22 Units

ML Liverpool +245 @ Arsenal 14 Units