Category: Soccer
Champions League
My apologies for negligence recently. Action will be picking up greatly now…
Chelsea to win CL +726 @ 7
1/18 – EPL and Championship Sunday
Our very fortunate day yesterday takes us to positive territory for the month. I wholeheartedly agree with Louis that Indy and Seattle are the best options later today and likely those will be the picks here barring weird line movement. For now…
West Ham vs Hull City Under 2 and 2.5 (-104) @ 14
Do not see making a play on Man City/Arsenal at this point.
YTD : +38.06
MTD : +38.06
****UPDATE****
Seattle -8 -110
Indy +6.5 +102
Both plays are @ 22. There will be a direct relationship in regards to freaky prop bets with alcohol intake throughout the day.
****UPDATE II****
Thunder/Magic Under 213.5 -103 @ 14
1/17 – Exacto Express…Toot Tooooot
Have talked about these before a few times. These are some of the most fun, nerve-splintering, excruciating bets you can put yourself through. You haven’t gambled until you have lived through a 2-2 exacto draw. All plays @ 3.
Aston 0 Liverpool 2 (+743)
Burnley 2 Crystal Palace 1 (+912)
Leicester 2 Stoke 1 (+922)
QPR 2 Man U 3 (+2575)
Swansea 1 Chelsea 2 (+769)
Tottenham 2 Sunderland 1 (Defoe) (+706)
Newcastle 1 Southampton 2 (+965)
YTD : -22.36
MTD : -22.36
****UPDATE****
Toot Toot!
1/10
Some last-second Premier plays. Rebecca Lowe just said “this is how you do it” talking about Premier League Extra Time features. A sign that these picks will win? Undoubtedly.
Swansea/West Ham Under 2.5 -102 @ 16
Leicester (pk and -.5) -113 @ 16
YTD : -19.21
MTD : -19.21
****UPDATE****
Patriots -7 +103 @ 18
I am surprised by everything with this line. I am surprised it is plus money on the 7, I am surprised 7 isn’t 9, and I am surprised the majority of the money is on the Ravens.
Heading Towards the Busy Season
Some Premier League plays for you as Chelsea is losing with roughly 20 minutes to go. With all due respect to the insanity that happens at Tottenham games, Newcastle has to be the most unpredictable team in Premier League right now. Aside from Newcastle 4 Chelsea 0 just about no score in that game would have seemed impossible.
Hull City/W.B.A. Draw +224 @ 14
QPR/Burnley Over 2.5 -101 @ 12
Tottenham ML -146 @ 14
Stoke/Arsenal Draw +249 @ 13
EXACTO
Liverpool 2 Sunderland 1 +729 @ 4
Monday
All winners yesterday except for the NBA which I am horrible at. Phoenix, which is in Arizona, got a 2-1 win in Edmonton to put us up to 14-13 +4.4. We had two NFL winners including the Rams moneyline to get us to 10-9 +3.85 for the season. Some plays and leans tonight:
Tampa and the Rangers are about to get started in New York. We have a very marginal lean on the Rangers but am passing on the game. Tampa is an excellent hockey team.
NFL is interesting as the public is all over Pittsburgh just like in the Jets game, so the please do not bet the Steelers tonight. I am however taking a rare total and that’s PIT/TEN OVER 46.
In soccer, despite not having any public betting data to work with, I have a play for tomorrow afternoon in a friendly: England @ Scotland +0.5 -130
Lastly, NBA because I’m an idiot: Chicago +5.5 @ Clippers
Addiction
I am growing increasingly addicted to exacto bets for Premier League. They are VERY tough to hit, as the odds attest. I hit recently on one of these in the 2-0 Swansea/Leicester game only bc some bald guy on Leicester missed a “sitter” (as they say) in stoppage time. These get especially fun when Tottenham plays because you often get to use unusual numbers on your keyboard. All plays @ 3.
Wednesday
1-1 yesterday with Toronto winning easily against what looked like a retro (94-2001) Islanders team with those players participating and everything. Vancouver, who we thoroughly enjoyed following last season, had a ridiculous loss against Dallas last night, missing only the bloopers music in the first two periods. Dallas is probably a top 5 offense so they don’t really need help like this to score goals:
Or this:
“I don’t know what to say, I haven’t done that before in the NHL,” Miller said. “I’ve done a lot of stupid things, but that’s a new one.
“I think we can classify this as not really my night,” Miller said, finally allowing himself to laugh at the understatement.
It was almost as absurd as the Liverpool-QPR ending over the weekend.
No plays in any sport tonight but there should be some action tomorrow.
Friday
No actual plays yesterday as mentioned but we would have had a 1-0 winner. Baseball has a leaner in Philly tonight but I am passing on the game. One important soccer play that has to get in today or tomorrow morning and it’s an important one. We are taking Atletico to defend La Liga at a ridiculous +1400. The only downgrade from the team that won last season is in goal where Cortois is clearly a top 5 or 10 keeper in the world, but Griezmann and Mandzukic are excellent, excellent players and the manager is obviously unchanged
Saturday
Regarding the 3rd place game, it’s generally difficult to score more than three goals in a professional soccer game with two evenly matched teams. There’s a reason the standard line is 2.5 with the exceptions being 2 and 3 (cup games and minnow qualifiers aside). The World Cup 3rd place game however is unique in the sport of soccer. The World Cup is the only full international tournament that contains a third-place game. No club competitions offer one, with UEFA scrapping theirs in 1984. Teams do play for a bronze medal in the Olympics, but the men’s competition is an under-23 tournament with three overage players allowed.
So what does the third place winner at the World Cup receive? If you guessed third place, you would be correct, because otherwise they receive nothing. Netherlands coach Louis Van Gaal has called the game pointless, but wants to win anyway because he’s a professional coach. It’s questionable how much this relates to the players. Brazil is favored, but like Sean I’m much more interested in the total. There hasn’t been a third place game with under three goals since 1974. Since the game doesn’t count for anything and one or both teams are unhappy to be there, the defending can be somewhat relaxed. In 2002, Turkey scored 11 seconds into the game (i.e. faster than Dempsey’s goal). In 1994, Bulgaria had to travel from New York to California and promptly shipped four goals in the first half.
The Pinnacle line has been steadily dropping, so I will likely be on the over 2.5 and 3 but we’ll wait on the teamsheets to come out first. One final note for Sean and everyone else is to use the “will advance” lines for hedging tomorrow and not the 1X2 as the latter covers only regular time and not overtime + shootouts.
One baseball play Braves (Minor) @ Cubs (Jackson) +109
Brazil/Netherlands Over 2.5 & 3 -107
