Miracle Covers

Saturday

2 for 2 on plays yesterday has us back on the plus side for June. I’m away all day today so posting a likely play that I won’t have time to check in and track later.

Oakland (Straily) @ Seattle (Harang) +123

Harang has been sneaky good this season so we’ll see if the trend continues. Leans on KC/White Sox over and Colorado/Washington under but likely a pass on both as is standard for these totals.

In soccer, Mexico +188 vs Japan in Confed Cup

MLS Saturday:

DC United +218 (2u), Draw +227 (1u) vs. San Jose
Dallas +147 vs. Kansas City

Saturday

We were close to a perfect Friday as Ireland and Toronto cruised to their wins and San Francisco got a great start from Cain but ultimately lost 3-1.  As mentioned yesterday, we are on Chicago today at home to Vancouver and we also beat the public money in as the line is now down to +120 from +145.

One definite play today in Seattle where we are hopping on this before the lineups.  I don’t want to issue a Code Green free money alert just yet, but it’s definitely a strong play.  Yankees (Pettite) @ Seattle (Saunders) +121.  In soccer, Vancouver may be a play in Seattle late as over half of the Sounders lineup is away for internationals.

Lastly, Francisco Liriano (Yes, that one) moved to 4-2 on the season for the Pirates, throwing seven shutout innings at Wrigley yesterday striking out eight.  Admittedly, he was facing the Cubs with the wind blowing in, but he has a 1.75 ERA and 47 strikeouts in six starts and 36 innings.  I saw someone on MLB network a few weeks ago analyzing Liriano and concluding that what he was doing wouldn’t continue being effective for whatever reason, but he’s obviously been excellent so far.

Updates, if any, later today.

Rainy World Cup Friday

At least on the East Coast.  No baseball in Boston, Washington and likely NYC today leaving a lighter than normal schedule and the prospect of double headers and weird pitching matchups tomorrow.  Two baseball plays today however:

Texas (Tepesch) @ Toronto (Rogers) -103

San Francisco (Cain) +120 @ Arizona (Corbin)

Props to the Cardinals, winning 12-8 yesterday.  Their strength in depth is amazing and they are clearly the best team in baseball at this point.  Lynn and Miller are in the same class as Lincecum and Cain were  few years ago and they still have Wainwright and a bunch of quality guys just up from the minors even after losing two starters from their rotation.

Today is also a World Cup qualifying day.  FIFA moved the dates for these games off of Saturdays & Wednesdays and onto Fridays and Tuesdays as a nod to club teams to give the players a bit more recovery time in between national & club team duty.  Why this extends into the summer I have no idea.

One play so far and that’s a mini-bet on Ireland -900 at home to the Faroe Islands.  This is the kind of game that is ripe for match-fixing, but Ireland has a good chance to qualify for the playoffs in November.  The Faroes are much better at home where they play on a small bumpy field in the middle of the North Atlantic.

One play I’ll post for tomorrow in MLS is Chicago +145 at home to Portland.  Chicago isn’t really missing anyone on National Team duty this weekend and they have been much better since getting Magee from LA.  We like plus odds for home teams too.  Debating Jamaica tonight hosting the Americans and possibly one more MLS play tomorrow.

Thursday

A mediocre May is coming to an end here with one total and no sides likely today. Updates later per usual.

The Kansas City Royals, who Pat and I both have down for Over 77.5, have lost 8 in a row and have hit two home runs as a team since May 15th. Cubs pitchers have hit three home runs during this timeframe, which is kind of like having Manchester United’s goalkeepers outscore QPR over a month. Joe Posnanski has more on this somewhat historic ineptitude.

World Cup qualifiers coming up next week after this slate of useless friendlies and last round of games in La Liga.

UPDATE 1: Make it Cubs pitchers 4 Royals 2. Travis Wood with the Grand Slam.

UPDATE 2: Marlins/Rays Under 7.5 -105 Nolasco v. Colome

Thirsty Thursday

The Cubs are hot on the heels of the Fire for worst offense in Chicago, having passed the White Sox in the standings last night in Pittsburgh. Four hits and zero runs were all the support offered to Samardjia, who was excellent and lost again. I need to remember that being nitty with the lines is sometimes a good thing as it saved a losing bet in this case. Francisco Liriano (yep, exactly who you think it is) got the win and is somehow 3-0 with a 1.00 ERA in three starts this season for the Pirates, who as mentioned last night are two games out of first place in the Central.

Only 5 games today in MLB, and Minnesota is the closest thing to a lean today and will most likely be a pass.

I was working on Power Rankings for MLS yesterday and realized when compiling just how much parity exists. Leagues without relegation, and that includes all American sports leagues, really do reward mediocrity. They are an extension of corporate America where turning up is the most important attribute. We have seen this up close with New England the last 7-8 years. Since they can’t be relegated, there is no reason to actively improve the team. And since as Jeff Maurer says, “The MLS playoffs are like Arizona State: You have to screw up really badly to not get in,” regular season games lack urgency as well. Throw in the fact that MLS plays right through international weeks where teams will be without their best players who are away on duty and it’s remarkably clear why EPL interest exponentially exceeds that of MLS.

The MLS lines this week are far too generous to some of these mediocre to poor teams who happen to be hosting teams of the same calibre. New England at home to Toronto is the most egregious but Colorado hosting Chivas at -160 is bad too. I really need to find another book to make any plays however as mine is around 20 points off Pinnacle on nearly everything. La Liga nonsense and any MLS plays to be posted Saturday.

Sunday

3-0 in baseball and 1-2 in soccer makes for a mediocre Saturday. I really need to remember that the difference between these MLS teams is not as great as other leagues. Seattle cruised while Columbus was fine despite missing a pair of defensive starters. In baseball, Texas cruised to another win behind Mitch Moreland who may be the hottest hitter in baseball at the moment. San Diego beat Washington 2-1 and the Natinals may have more problems against lefties until Jason Werth comes back with Ramos already back on the DL as well. I’ve been look for a spot to fade the Yankees against left handed starters as well, but they also roughed up Buehrle the other night.

As promised, some La Liga nonsense as we are taking Zaragoza and Deportivo at home today at -111 and -143 respectively. These are both being hedged with draw bets just like the Atletico game to cover the primary wager. If I were getting the Pinnacle prices on Newcastle I’d consider taking them at home to Arsenal today, but I’m 50 points off and will pass. This is good news for Spurs as Newcastle tend to get smushed whenever I take them.

Baseball leans this morning are on San Diego, Colorado, Minnesota and Cleveland though there is a good chance of there being no plays because I am again not happy with my lines versus the Pinnacle ones. Not willing to go 10 points worse than Pinnacle on any of these at the moment. Updates later per usual and I’ll sort out my spreadsheets to figure out where we are on soccer for the season.

Soccer Saturday

We got a much needed draw/win with Atletico yesterday in another wonderful cup final. Finals are often tense and dour affairs, but the FA, Euro and now Spanish Cup have been 2.5 for 3 in really entertaining games. One can only hope the Champions League final is equally fun. As I was telling Sean, the final count from yesterday was 3 goals, 14 cautions, two red cards (I forgot about Gabi’s in the 125th), three shots off a post, two really top class saves from Courtois, a goal-line clearance from Juanfran, one manager ejection and the benches cleared twice. Just a wonderful, entertaining game.

Doble oportunidad para el Real Madrid by DaniDV

Baseball split yesterday so we are still scuffling around for May. 7-8 -0.41

Three baseball plays on a busy day today:
Natinals (Zimmerman) @ Padres (Stults) +117
Rays (Hernandez) -110 @ Orioles (Jurrjens)
Tigers (Sanchez) @ Rangers (Grimm) +110

Also three MLS Plays this afternoon and evening

Columbus @ Toronto Over 2.5 +120
Colorado @ San Jose -140
Dallas @ Seattle -105

La Liga nonsense tomorrow.

1999

That’s the last time Atletico has beaten Real Madrid in a match. It doesn’t matter the location or the teamsheets, the Rojiblancos have lost or tied every single time since then. Even when Real put out their second string, Atletico still contrive to lose. They are a European version of the Red Sox pre-2005. The indispensible Sid Lowe explains:

Atlético need the pressure to be transferred. Asked what the difference is between Real and Atlético, the Atlético manager Diego Simeone replied: “400 million euros a year on the budget.” He was right of course and, man for man, there is virtually no comparison. Of the sides who are likely to start on Friday perhaps only Radamel Falcao, Thibault Courtois and Miranda would get into the Real side. Yet there is something else that lingers over this tie: the psychology.

Atlético have not beaten Real this millennium. Their last victory was in 1999 – and that year they went down. Since they came back up to the first division, they have not been able to beat Real once. In that time more than 60 clubs have managed it but not Atlético. It is 25 games now and there is a kind of depressing inevitability about it; they have invented countless different ways, each more absurd than the last, to lose.

They call Atlético El Pupas, the jinxed one, and that has become excuse and millstone wrapped in one. It is an odd nickname for a team who have won two Europa Leagues in the last four years and Simeone has given Atlético a toughness that belies the nickname. But Real have so far proven an insurmountable hurdle. It is hard not to feel like there is a mental block that paralyses them. Less than a month ago, Atlético took a three-minute lead against Real only to concede an own goal and lose 2-1.

All of these kinds of streaks end eventually even though no one thinks they will happen in the moment. We are betting it will happen today. All kinds of hedgeworks for this one as is standard for high odds matches. Also it’s a Cup tie, so extra time doesn’t count for our purposes.

ATL Mardid to win +550
ATL Madrid to draw +325
ATL Madrid +1 goal +105

3:30 ET kickoff I believe.

Baseball would have been 1-1 had we found decent lines yesterday. Verlander had a poor outing as Texas cruised and the Rockies led 6-0 after three before Chacin imploded to lose 8-6. Leans on the Twins, Fish and A’s today but none are particularly inspiring. Not sure yet what the schedule will be like for this weekend.

EDIT:

This is so ugly for baseball tonight:
Twins (Worley) +129 at home to Red Sox (Buchholz)
A’s (Parker) +103 at home to Royals (Shields)

More soccer tomorrow.