Category: Soccer
Sunday
Two for three in soccer yesterday as the Revs beat San Jose 2-0 and Vancouver topped Seattle by the same score. Philadelphia couldn’t hold on for the draw however, losing 1-0 in Houston. Five MLS games today but zero one play:
Chivas @ Montreal UNDER 2.5 & 3 +104
One baseball play today:
Oakland (Griffin) @ Kansas City (Mendoza) +116
Saturday #3
That’s what if feels like after the pseudo holiday yesterday. In unhappy gambling, I tried to get a play in on Arizona last night, only to find the shitty Bookmaker lines 10 points off of Pinnacle. It went from -130 to -140 to finally -144 before first pitch. I would have taken the -130 or -131 had it been available. Tyler Skaggs was excellent and Arizona cruised 5-0.
In happier news, our total won again yesterday with Texas covering the 10 on their own. 7-1-1 for the season on totals, with the ones being a miracle cover and a push. I’m starting to be a little more aggressive with these given the early success. We’ll see in a few months if I am really onto something or just off to a fortunate start.
Carrasco and Cleveland at home to Sanchez and Detroit is basically the only option today.
In soccer, taking all three MLS games:
San Jose @ New England UNDER 2.5 -130
Philly @ Houston DRAW +265
Seattle @ Vancouver -112 (No Draw)
Happy 4th
Short on time so I’ll get straight to the plays. Nothing to report from yesterday.
Detroit (Verlander) @ Toronto (Rodgers) +117
St. Louis (Wainwright) @ LA Angels (Blanton) +120
Arizona(Kennedy) @ Mets(Gee) OVER 8
Passing on MLS again today Dallas -250 is closest to a play.
Wednesday
2-1 in baseball last night as we saw how (somewhat) meaningless these line moves can be, or in other words that the game is played “on the field.” Mets were a winner after a close game was broken open in the 7th after a lengthy rain delay. I got +115 but the line moved back up to where it started around +126-130 in the hour before game time. Alternately, the other play last night on Oswalt and Colorado only dropped the entire day, which should be a good thing and closed around +125. The +141 didn’t matter as the Dodgers led the whole way and won 9-0. In totals, the under 8.5 just got there with the White Sox winning 5-3. It looked like an easy win until the 7th when Jason Hammel turned back into a pumpkin. He’s not been able to repeat last season at all as has an ERA around 5.00 again, meaning he’s the same pitcher he’s been his entire career. Related, after Roy Oswalt’s poor start with Colorado, it’s possible he’s finished being an effective major league starter. He stunk last year with the Rangers too, and it’s a little more than just pitching in hitters parks.
Lastly, Homer Bailey no-hit the Giants last night and it’s not the most surprising result. The Giants have been swinging the bats horribly of late and their pitching isn’t very good either. The bats will come around as they have 4-5 average to above hitters, but the rest are close to replacement level. This isn’t new to the Giants, but without an A pitching staff they are basically the same team as the Phillies, somewhere around or just below .500. The Phils aren’t making the playoffs this season and I don’t expect the Giants to either.
In baseball today I’m waiting on the Baltimore & White Sox total to go up but otherwise I didn’t see much to work with. On sides it’s probably Josh Johnson & Toronto or nothing.
In tennis, Del Potro was excellent this morning winning in straight sets. I’d like to get into tennis betting some more but will probably keep the volume and size very small going forward.
MLS, as previously mentioned, sucks for playing through all these international games. Most teams are missing 3-4 players out of their usual 18 and it’s harder than usual to sort out what’s what. I have a few leans but will probably pass on everything.
Updates later per usual.
UPDATE: I really want to take San Jose – Chicago draw but cannot bring myself to do it. Chicago will probably win 1-0. Nothing in baseball and I will post more about the Reds tomorrow. Happy 4th.
Sunday
We don’t do anywhere near a good enough job actually documenting miracle covers when they happen, so I’m going to do so here. Had San Jose to win at “home” (the game was played at Stanford’s football stadium) and they were down a man and a goal after 90 minutes and somehow managed to end up with 3 points.
Our other play yesterday should have been a winner but was not as Toronto did everything but score and lost 1-0. So a 1-1 day but still on the plus side.
Nothing in baseball today. Oakland is the closest as Milone is ace-like at home.
Saturday
1-1 on baseball yesterday for a break even day. Boston led most of the way and Houston was tied with a chance to win but ultimately lost 4-2. Seattle, Oakland, Tampa and Minnesota are the shortlist today. First game of this bunch is at 4:00 EDT.
Two soccer plays in MLS today:
Salt Lake @ Toronto Draw +235
Los Angeles @ San Jose +173
Thursday
Baseball is celebrating the end of school and taking a half day today, so there are fewer games to review than usual. Likely no plays per the numbers on any sides today. I’ll be keeping an eye on Texas at the Yankees to see if New York sends out another putrid lineup like they did last week against Matt Moore and Tampa. The line is already around -130 so that’s going to be difficult. Another potential play is in Kansas City where I loved the overnight over 8.5, though my craptastic book has already moved that to 9. Lastly, Arizona and Washington are showing at 6.5 on the total with Corbin and Strasburg going tonight. Strasburg’s lines are usually inflated because while he’s an excellent pitcher, he has trouble going deep into games. Washington has a good bullpen so it’s mitigated somewhat, but 6.5 is tough to bet under.
Confed Cup is the same as yesterday, no value on Spain-Italy but something to keep in mind is how terrible Buffon has looked in goal. Could be a sign for some over plays against different opponents if their defense remains this leaky. This game will tell us about the Italy defense because they are pretty punchless up front without Balotelli.
Updates later if anything pops up.
Wednesday
An ugly day in baseball reminded me why I’m treating the Astros and Marlins separately from the other 28 teams, something I had forgotten in the last few weeks with Miami’s over .500 play here in June. The Mariners also lost ugly, abruptly ending whatever winning streak was going on. That said, we had a rare total which was again a winner. 5-0-1 +5u on those and I wish there were more because the sides are now all of +1.04 for the season. Better than losing though and I think all but removing the away teams, which are 6-12 -4.04 will help. I think there is space for these plays when there is a good matchup and very solid plus odds, but the percentage of plays probably needs to be 80-90% on the home sides.
Not many leans today: KC, Tampa and Houston who we are mostly ignoring. Soccer today has Brazil and Uruguay in Confed cup, where I can’t see value on any side. The draw at +400 would be the closest to a play.
EDIT: Uruguay came close to pulling off a draw but ultimately lost as expected 2-1. Marlins won again today and are 9-6 since Stanton came back from the DL. They also went 5-15 to start the season with him playing so this is mostly small sample size, but their lineup isn’t anywhere near as terrible as it was a few months ago with Stanton and Morrison back instead of whatever schmos they were playing everyday instead. Miami’s pitching has been slightly above average and while they probably have too far to go to cover my 64 win proposition, they are looking more Mariners bad than Astros bad. Briefly on the Astros, they’ve allowed 405 runs after yesterday’s disaster, 40 more than the next closest teams and that’s only going to increase after they deal Bud Norris at the All-Star break.
Passing on KC tonight though it’s close. 50/50 proposition after the lineups came out but I’m looking for a line move toward the Royals or a better price to put down some dollars.
Monday
As mentioned, no plays yesterday and probably nothing again today. Slight lean on the Padres hosting Cliff Lee and the Phillies tonight. Only four games today in MLB and nothing doing in soccer besides the under-20 World Cup. I’ve got the live-betting open for the US-France game currently underway, but nothing so far there either. Turkey is hosting the tournament and it’s quite hot so the pace of the game has been pretty slow. The Qatar World Cup is going to be one ugly, unwatchable affair.
I made an effort to get a post and play up on Wimbledon yesterday, but because Bookmaker blows there was no chance to get any action down. In short, David Ferrer, who is mediocre on grass, ended up in a quarter of the bracket without any of Federer, Nadal, Murray or Djokovic. The plan was to bet on some of the other good players in Ferrer’s quarter to win the tournament, with the intention of hedging and betting large on Djokovic in the semis later. Instead of listing all of the top 30 or so players like Pinnacle, Bookmaker just listed the top eight and then lumped the rest into ‘Field’ +675. :-(
Some updates on totals: MLB June is 9-7-1 +3.10. +7.04 for the season. Soccer is 16-16 +4.71
Sunday
1-0 yesterday in baseball as Seattle won 7-5 and 2-1 in soccer where Mexico and DC both won for the first time in a long while while Dallas was never in the game but managed two late goals to draw 2-2.
No plays and nothing particularly close to one anywhere today. Enjoy your Sunday.
