Category: Olympics
This Things I Believe (3)
Osaka
Dont know if plagiarize is the right word here…we are going to cite our source. There is a very knowledgeable (seems to me, anyway) guy on youtube named Cam Williams who will often do watch-alongs for tennis matches. He does Osaka’s match today, where she winds up losing to someone named Marketa Vondrousova. My spell check just exploded. I trust this guy for his insights and we are going to transcribe about a minute long quote of his in regards to this match and how it relates to potential Osaka tendencies…
“If youre going ‘what the Hell happened,’ this is what happened. Vondrousova came out here with a game-plan, of being aggressive and making Osaka move. She made her move…thirty-two unforced errors for Osaka…she made Osaka hit 32 errors, and the reason why I say made…she came out here with a game-plan, super aggressive, ultra-aggressive game-plan…and that made Osaka try and go for shots she wasnt comfortable to hit, she was trying to go for winners too early, Osaka, and that just filtered into missing so many shots…and she just made so many errors…errors, errors, errors…Vondrousova made Osaka make those errors. That is the blueprint on how to beat Osaka on a hard-court. A very similar scoreline, we saw Sakkari do that in Miami, Sakkari did the same thing, came out aggressive…Osaka gets a little stressed and goes ‘Hang on, Im supposed to be the dominating player here, why are you hitting winners?’ And then she gets a little stressed and she makes terrible errors…thats what happened today.”
Now the point of this series of blurbs is to try to drill down to true statements. Cam is including some hypothesizing about possible thoughts going through Osaka’s mind and how this affects her play. What we can say for the purpose of this entry, as Cam notes, 2 of Osaka’s most recent losses on hard-court are to players utilizing an ultra-aggressive game-plan. Osaka hits 32 errors vs Vondrousova and 23 vs Sakkari in Miami, losing both matches in straight sets. Is there a correlation between a super-attacking style and Osaka’s high unforced error total and eventual defeats? We cannot say for absolute certain, but recent results would suggest this scouting report/analysis has merit. Considering Osaka has won the last 2 majors on hard-court this is notable.
Olympics Soccer Sunday Breakfast: Over Easy
True to form:
I think the play in the Men Soccer tournament will be : over goals. The defense is atrocious
— Sean ♠️ (@Seanismoney) August 5, 2016
I am taking a ton of overs in the soccer matches today. A few reasons why the overs could be a theme this soccer tournament:
a) Most of these squads are U23 (each team has 3 exceptions, usually pro players who are older). They don’t play often and are usually very unorganized.
b) Mismatches. The Olympics soccer pool is a bit more diverse than the pro tournaments, with teams like Fiji and South Africa getting in. This usually creates some really lopsided scores, like South Korea hanging up 8 goals, 7 in the second half, on that Fiji team. In case your wondering, Fiji/MExico’s O/U today is 7, with the Over having -185 juice. That’s the highest juice I have ever seen for an over in a soccer match.
c) Brazil. The 2014 World Cup in Brazil was all about goals in the group stages. The stadiums are in diverse weather areas so and while Brazil is technically in its fall/winter season, since it is near the wequator some areas maintain really damp and hot conditions. This leads to fatigue, which opens up play.
Here are the plays for today:
Japan/Colombia Over 3 (+105)
Sweden/Nigeria Over 3 (EVEN)
Germany/S.Korea Over 2.5 (-140)
Brazil/Iraq Over 3 (EVEN)
4 team parlay @ +400:
Mexico -10000
Brazil -500
Japan/Colombia Over 3
Germany/S.Korea Over 2.5 (EVEN)
Olympic Bonus:
Dana Vollmer Olympics 100m Butterfly Women – Winner +2000
Medal Friday
Sweden/Finland semifinal gets going in about an hour or so and we missed an even bigger betting spot on Finland/Russia. We haven’t been playing many sides in the tournament however because these totals have been improbably low. Likely the last play today, Sweden/Finland OVER 4.5 +119. Big day again in Canada, the women took both Curling and Hockey gold medals in straightforward & dramatic fashion respectively yesterday, and today it’s Men’s curling gold at 830 and USA/Canada in the other hockey semi at noon. I’m trying to find a bar that is showing curling live this morning.
Wednesday Hockey
3-0 yesterday, we’ll ride the hot streak today with:
Czech v USA Over 5.5 (+115)
USA -1.5 @ -120 (part of this coming from hedge from our Czech 10-to-1 Gold medal bet).
Also slightly tilted I missed an alternate over bet, 3.5 @ +165 Swiss v Lativa (they weren’t going to be 1-0 games forever, the 5.5 over was at +365!) and of course, Lou’s hot streak in curling. The guy is a stone savant.
Tuesday
I also have the Over in the Czech/Slovakia game (5.5 at +180 and 4.5 at EVEN).
Also taking FC Barcelona today at +125 vs Man City.
And now, here’s your Norwegian Curling Pants recap:
http://www.bloguin.com/theapparty/2014-articles/january/the-norwegian-curling-pants.html
Olympics Update
Winner this morning with our Curling play as Russia beat Germany 8-7. Sadly the curling tournament is coming to an end right as we’e cracked these totals. Total for those following me this Olympics is 4-1 +3.69. One hockey play tomorrow and that’s the Czechoslovakia OVER 4.5 +105. Maybe I’m using too much NHL knowledge in these overs, but it seems like 5 would be a more appropriate line. Related, we probably missed a play on US/Slovenia UNDER 6.5.
More Curling
Germany Russia OVER 12.5 -130. Czech Swiss over was a loser the other day. The string of 1-0 games by the Swiss will obviously end soon but Jonas Hiller is en fuego at the moment. He won a Stanley cup for the Ducks a few years back on this sort of form. We should find out the remaining hockey matchups tomorrow.
TJ Oshie
I’ve never seen a guy take 6 straight penalty shots before. He was so composed; almost stuff you see on the pond (because he was so slow and deliberate) not in actual NHL-sytle shootouts. For Russia, that Datsyuk guy….he’s pretty good. The USA now (4-to-1) are serious Gold medal favorites, IMO.
Bets today:
Olympic Hockey:
Czech/Swiss Over 4.5 (-120). We hit our benchmark, and as good as the Swiss have played defensively in this tournament, I actually think they’ll be able to open up their offensive game vs the defense-less Czechs. It’s a pretty big game for both teams. Someone wins 3-2 here.
UFC (in Brazil):
Saturday Hockey
Curling bet the other day was a winner, though the US lost to Russia yesterday morning in the equivalent of blowing a 2-run save in the 9th. Admittedly it was very close as after the last shot by the US, everyone stared at the ice for 30 seconds or so like old people in an Omaha game before determining that Russia won. 3-0 +2.31 for Olympics so far. Perfect record on the line at noon: Czech/Swiss OVER 4.5 -122. Switzerland’s first two games have finished 1-0, hence the line. I’m scared off enough to go 1/2 unit here.
China/Canada tomorrow at 10 Eastern in a Curling Medal preview for those looking for something to watch next to Arsenal-Liverpool.
Quick Hits
Norway +2.5 (-110) vs Finland
Finland looked like crap vs the Austrians last game. Captain Teemu Selanne is playing at 75% and Tuukka Rast, who gave up 4 goals, has been shaky all year. I expect this to be a close game.
Canada/Austria Under 7.5
Too many goals. I expect Austria to pack it in and not go forward to keep it close versus a talented Canada team. I also don’t know how they score goals vs Canada (the Fins were just awful on defense last game). Austria gave up 8 goals last game but that’s an outlier IMO.
Also glad I didn’t take the Czech/Lativa over 6.5 (-145). The books’ adjusted. There was also an alternate line at 5.5 at -225, but that was too much juice. Basically, any game that the Czechs play should have 6 goals total in them either way. That’s our bench mark.
