Category: NFL
NBA Playoffs Round 2 Picks
Eastern Conference
(2) Celtics vs (3) 76ers
On his latest podcast, Bill Simmons tried to say this was the biggest/longest-running rivalry in the NBA, and specifically called it out as bigger than Celtics/Lakers. That may (or may not) be true for Celtics fans, but it’s definitely not true for neutrals like me. I don’t give a shit about the Celtics playing the Sixers. But when the Celtics & Lakers play, I start wearing green a lot more.
Anyway, on to the pick. On paper, this should be the Celtics for sure. Two things going for the 76ers: First, they have (probably) the best player in the series in Joel Embiid. He hasn’t really done it in the playoffs yet, but past performance is not a predictor of future success. If he plays like Joel EMVPiid, the Sixers have a real chance. Second, the Celtics don’t always show up. If the Hawks can beat them twice in 6 games, the Sixers should be able to do at least one better. I’ll say Celtics in 7, but almost any result wouldn’t surprise me.
(5) Knicks vs (8) Heat
Is it the late 90s/early 2000s again? I’m sick of these reboots. I’ll say Knicks in 7, but again I don’t feel very confident.
Western Conference
(1) Nuggets vs (4) Suns
Full disclosure: I’m a Suns fan, and I can’t be fully objective on them from here on out. With that said, I’ll do my best to keep things realistic. These teams met in the second round two years ago, but a lot has changed:
- Jamal Murray is healthy
- Kevin Durant is on the Suns
- All of the Suns’ forwards from 2021 are gone
- Chris Paul is way worse now
You’ll notice that 3 of those 4 are good for the Nuggets or bad for the Suns, so I’m not expecting another sweep. But I do like their chances. If 2021 Playoffs DeAndre Ayton shows up, he does about the best job on Jokic in the league without getting help. Which means Jokic will still put up massive numbers, but 1.) will have to work for them, and 2.) won’t be able to set up his teammates nearly as well. On the other end, I think the Suns have the personnel to heavily exploit Jokic’s defensive liabilities. I think it’ll be a really fun series, and I’ll say Suns in 6.
(3) Kings vs (7) Lakers OR (6) Warriors vs (7) Lakers
If I’m able, I’ll come back and edit this section once we know who’s playing.
NBA Playoffs Round 1 Recap
First, a recap of my picks from last round. Bold means I consider it a win.
(4) Suns vs (5) Clippers
My pick: Suns in 5 or 6
Actual: Suns in 5
Analysis: I think I was spot on on this. I also think Kawhi staying healthy would’ve mean the Suns winning in 6 instead of 5. Why? Because there are no independent outcomes in sports. Westbrook couldn’t have played as well as he did without having so many opportunities with the ball in his hands.
(1) Nuggets vs (8) TBD
My pick: Nuggets in 4 or 5
Actual: Nuggets in 5
Analysis: Again, pretty spot on here. I don’t like this T-Wolves team at all, but at least they didn’t get swept.
(2) Grizzlies vs (7) Lakers
My pick: N/A
Actual: Lakers in 6
Analysis: I got to celebrate the Grizzlies running their mouths before getting absolutely punked out. Good times!
(3) Kings vs (6) Warriors
My pick: N/A
Actual: TBD
Bonus pick for game 7: LIGHT THE BEAM
(1) Bucks vs (8) TBD
My pick: Bucks in 4, 5, or 6
Actual: Heat in 5
Analysis: Way off! Obviously I didn’t foresee Giannis getting hurt, but even considering the injury, I’m still surprised they lost in 5. Credit to Miami on this one. Side note of whining: Where the hell was that 10-23 free throw performance in the Finals 2 years ago?!?
(2) Celtics vs (7) Hawks
My pick: Celtics in 4 or 5
Actual: Celtics in 6
Analysis: I got the winner right, but the Hawks’ 2nd win suprised me. I was at Game 1 of this series, and it was one of the biggest disparities I’ve ever seen in person. Like I said in my preview, this Celtics team is way too inconsistent. On paper, they should be a heavy title favorite with the Bucks out, but I don’t fully believe in them.
(3) 76ers vs (6) Nets
My pick: 76ers in 5
Actual: 76ers in 4
Analysis: Off by 1 game, but no surprises here.
(4) Cavaliers vs (5) Knicks
My pick: Go Knicks!
Actual: Go Knicks!
March Madness Friday
VCU ML +160
Iona vs UCONN OVER 141.5 -110
Arizona St +5 -110
PARLAY +602: Purdue ML -10000, Gonzaga -15.5, Marquette -10, Iona/UCONN OVER 141.5
March Madness Thursday
Probably will have more during today on the Twitter feed as I’ll be at Encore Sportsbook
Missouri ML +105
Penn St vs Texas A&M UNDER 134.5 -110
West Virginia -2.5 -110
TEASER 4 PT -120: Kansas -22, Alabama -24, Furman +6
Super Bowl LVII Props and Pick
Anytime TD: Hurts -130, Scott +450, Kelce -150, Pacheco +125
First TD: Miles Sanders +850, Goedert +1000, Skyy Moore +3500; Kadarius Toney +1500
Rec Yards: Pacheco OVER 18.5 -114, Goedert OVER 51.5 -114
Receptions: Pacheco OVER 3 +120
Mahomes: Over Pass Att 39.5 -121
Hurts: Rush Attempts OVER 11 -130
First Offensive Play Of Game Is A Pass – Yes +115
Result of First Coaches Challenge – Play Stands +105
The OCHOCINCO SPECIAL: Total Punts Over 6.5 -114
Pick:
Chiefs +1.5
This is a tough game to call; I choose the better QB over the better overall team but this is Philly’s first test in a long time as they’ve had an easy schedule this year. There maybe a “will game’s result be less that 6 points? -120” which I might just take instead. Can see Mahomes winning on a last second drive, also taking last score for KC at FG +420.
UFC BONUS: Alexander Volkanovski +295
NFL Title Game Sunday
Picks I actually play in BOLD
PHI -3 (EVEN)
Second time this year we get a hedge play with an EVEN juice line…very blessed. We had SF +175 to win the NFC before the playoff so we book profit either way. I do think the Eagles win as I just can’t see a 7th round rookie going into Philly amongst those animals in the stands and a pretty good team and getting the W. These teams are fairly well matched with the only obvious advantages at QB and CB, which may prove the difference. Props I have: Christian McCaffrey OVER receptions 4.5 -106, Dallas Goedert OVER receptions -117, Jalen Hurts AT LEAST 2 RUSH TDs +450, and Brock Purdy OVER INTO 0.5 -170.
CIN +2
The Bengals are just the more complete team. And last week showed you can have OL issues, but if your perimeter and HBs are healthy you can dev a scheme, as long as you have a quick accurate gun at QB, to mask that and even success in the running game as Cincy did because the Bills were having such a hard time defending the back end. Props: Joe Mixon OVER receptions 3.5 +127, Total FGs OVER 3.5 +110, Travis Kelce ANYTIME TD -143, and Andy Reid Timeouts Set on Fire 1.5 -420.
TEASER: CIN +2 and PHI/SF OVER 45 +110
DFS:
NHL BONUS: BOS ML +113
NFL Divisional Sunday
0-2 yesterday, 3-4 so far this playoffs. Back on the wagon, actual bets in BOLD:
Buffalo -5.5
Hardest game to pick this weekend; I’d lean more on Bengals if they weren’t missing 3 OLs. I am taking CIN 1H +3.5 as I do think Burrow, and Josh Allen’s penchant for INTs, keep it close. For props, going Josh Allen Rushing Yards OVER 50.5 -114 and James Cook First TD +1600.
SF -3.5
Pounding and doubling down on San Fran. Also taking OVER 46 as the model I use has this game at 51.5 and it probably should be 48. Taking Christian McCaffrey Receptions OVER 4.5 -103, Ezekiel Elliott Carries OVER 10.5 -115, and Mike McCarthy Timeouts Set on Fire OVER 1.5 -420 (kidding but…if this is an actual bet I’d take it).
NFL Divisional Saturday
Anything I bet is in BOLD; 3-2 so far this playoffs
Kansas City -9.5 -110
Trevor’s Lawrence’s turnover-itis comes back to bite him in the ass because he isn’t playing a team called the “Chargers”. I also like Travis Kelce First to Score +500, Jerick McKinnon OVER receptions +112, and receiving yards OVER 36.5 -126, and Trevor Lawrence At least 2 INT +300.
NY Giants +8
How about Brian Daboll and Daniel Jones last week! The most impressive performance and playcalling of the weekend, even better than the 49ers’ second half (which was also pretty good). It seems like the majority of the time in the modern era when teams’ play for a 3rd time, it’s usually a close ballgame. I see the Eagles winning but the Giants’ keeping it close; if the Giants had 1 or more WRs I would like their chances better as they did have a lot of drops last week. Maybe Kenny Golladay (if he’s even active) has a J.D. Drew moment and has the game of his life despite the fact he is the worst FA signing in NY sports history. We get to bet Daniel Jones rushing yards OVER again 48.5 -108; surprised it took the books this long to have this over 40 yards as Daniel Jones is 12-5-1 vs the rushing yards OVER this year. I also like total FG OVER 3.5 +130.
NHL Bonus: EDM at VAN UNDER 7 -104
NFL Wild Card Sunday + Monday
2-0 so far thanks to the Chargers doing Chargery things. Bets placed in BOLD
Buffalo -13.5 (-115)
Miami limped into the playoffs thanks to Buffalo beating a milquetoast Patriots team. They will have a rookie starter who is more of a runner if anything vs a pretty fast Bills front 7. Bills should have an easy time here and will probably get a nice bump as Damar Hamlin maybe at today’s game.
Minnesota -3 +100
Most people went into the playoffs thinking, “Man, I can’t wait to bet against this overrated Vikings team and Kirk Cousins!”. Too bad their first game is against the Giants, who they beat 24-21 back in November in OT despite blowing a 4th quarter lead. The Giants had a good year but mostly took advantage of a weak schedule as well as Daniel Jones finally having a professional coach in Brian Daboll…but this VIkings team has more talent than this Giants team overall… I’d wait until next week for the annual Vikings’ bed shitting. This might be the last time of year I get to bet the Daniel Jones Rushing OVER prop (40.5 -118); it was 11-5-1 during the year.
Baltimore +8.5 -112
The backend of a “back-to-back” game as these teams played in the same place last week. I think Baltimore coaching, guile, the Lamar Jackson drama, and the division aspect of this matchup will keep things close despite backup QBs… however Baltimore’s failure in offense will hurt them in the 4th quarter, where Joe Burrow shines so I do like Bengals to win the game. For props, I like Total Field Goals OVER 3.5 +135 as we have two pretty awesome kickers in this game.
Tampa Bay +2.5 -107
I am actually taking the Tampa Bay ML on this game at +125. Dallas has more talent than this average Tampa team. They SHOULD win… but we all know what is going to happen. They will grab an early lead when this Tampa offense has their usual crappy start and then as we go into the late 3rd and 4th quarter, Dallas will start nitting it up on offense while Mike McCarthy is going to waste timeouts challenging a 2 yard catch on 2nd down while staring at the scoreboard as he ponders what type of nachos he is going to have later. Brady gets the ball back with 2 min and we all know the rest as that is how Tampa has stolen many games this year. For props, I like: Mike Evans ANYTIME TD +200; Dak Prescott OVER INT 0.5 -167; Leonard Fournette Rushing Yards OVER 45.5 -114 and OVER receptions 4.5 +100.
TEASER 6.5 +125: BUF -13.5, CIN -8, TB +2.5
NFL Wild Card Saturday
Play the fun game every year where we try to go undefeated vs the spread. Any thing I actually bet will be in BOLD
San Francisco -9.5 (-110)
Taking the 49ers….like everyone else which scares me. But they are the most balanced team going into the playoffs, the rookie QB has come in and played better than Jimmy G and even Lance, and they play a Seattle team who limped into the playoffs thanks to Aaron Rodgers’ annual Lambeau bed shitting. For props, taking Christian McCaffrey receptions OVER 4.5 +100, and Geno Smith INT OVER 0.5 -164. I am also taking 49ers to win the NFC at +175, as I figure they should make it at least to the NFC title game again providing a hedge opportunity.
Jacksonville +2.5
This is the toughest game to bet all weekend. Both young QBs in Herbert and Lawrence in their first playoff starts. Taking Jacksonville because these teams are close in talent but I think the Chargers coach is a moron and they will probably do Chargery things. I do like Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards OVER 15.5 -114.
