Category: NFL
2009 NFL Week 3 Early Leans
So I’m 2 for 2 in losing weeks to open the season, not unlike last year. Maybe I should just start my NFL season in October. This week’s lines are terrible. I don’t like anything other than New Orleans when they opened at -4 in Buffalo and New England, who actually is -4 at home to Atlanta. The Pats moved the ball up and down the field on Buffalo, and I think they’ll do the same against the Falcons. The New Orleans line is up to 6 so that’s a pass too, at least right now. Should have bet it early.
Links coming tomorrow per usual as is some more analysis as I try to figure out how to lose more money this week.
EDIT: Also now thinking about betting on Detroit to win at home to Washington. They’re getting 6 and +230 to win outright.
2009 NFL Week 2 Picks
First, apologies for not getting Eric Foster’s UFC 103 picks linked up. 3 for 3 and more than making up for last month’s disappointing card.
Quickly with the NFL picks. All 2 units unless noted.
Cleveland/Denver Over 37 4u
Big bet of the week as mentioned earlier. This is 38 or 38.5 everywhere I’ve looked this morning.
New Orleans Minny @ Detroit +10
New York Giants +3 @ Dallas
Managed to get this at -112 as opposed to the -120/125 that’s commonly available.
Pittsburgh @ Chicago +3
Happy to take the home underdog here.
Carolina +6.5 @ Atlanta 1u
Simmons talked me into it.
Good luck out there today.
NFL 2 Minute Ramble Drill
Few thoughts about last week’s games:
We had 2 miracle covers on Sunday. First was by the Baltimore Ravens (-13), who decided to run it in from 4th an inches from the goal line versus Kansas City on Sunday. The meaningless TD helped them cover, 38-24. Thanks John Harbaugh (who had to know the line!), I owe you a beer.
The second was bad for the site, as the Washington Redskins, who seem to only find offense when they need to cover the spread, amazingly covered versus the New York Giants (+6.5). Down 17-3, they decide their first TD of the year needs to be scored by the punter, Hunter Smith, on a fake FG attempt. Deion Sanders called Hunter Smith the whitest guy to ever score a TD in the NFL; Cap Boso must be pissed. Then, down 23-10, the Redskins drive down the field versus a prevent Giants defense and Chris Cooley scores a semi-meaningless TD with 1.34 left, covering the 6.5 points. What a cooler, sorry Lou.
I also owe a beer to both the Bills’ Dick Jauron and Leodis McKelvin, who some how found a way to give the Patriots that game on Monday night. Where was Dick Jauron on the sidelines telling him NOT to run right into the Patriots defense, especially when the Bills have their hands team up awaiting an onsides kick? Having Leodis just down the ball in the endzone wasn’t the optimal play, either (although better than what happened). The Pats had 3 timeouts and a 2 minute warning stoppage as there was 2:06 left on the clock. The smart football play would be to catch the ball, run around for 6 seconds, and get down. That way, the Bills only need 10 yards to win the game, even if they have the ball on their own 10 yard line. The Pats will use the 3 timeouts, and at worst, the Pats at best get the ball back with about :57 seconds left. How do professionals getting paid millions not know this? I know this from my extensive Madden experience; and I’m high most of the time doing it!
Either way, I feel that if the Bills lose another close game, Dick Jauron is going to react like Cathy Pondexter of the Phoenix Mercury (video on the right).
I really hope the Brandon Stokely miracle TD versus the Bengals on Sunday doesn’t affect my season under bet. At least I got another fantastic Gus Johnson call out of it. Gus, btw, is in the works to be calling The 1st Annual Wii Golf tournament, The Castle Open at Everett St, later this year.
Drinking game of the week: Watch this Sunday’s game between the Eagles and the Saints. What you do is every time Eagles QB Kevin Kobb throws an incompletion, you drink. If it’s an interception, then 2 drinks. A TAINT (INT returned for a TD)? 6 drinks. You can also do a pool where you get 4 buddies and everyone picks a quarter, and the quarter that Kobb gets taken out of, everyone who didn’t pick that quarter has to drink a beer. If he actually by the miracle of God finishes the game, every one has a social beer. Fun for the entire family!
Onto the Picks:
San Francisco (Pick’em) at home versus Seattle
Home opener, coming off a big win versus the Cardinals in Week 1. Mike Singletary and his stopwatch know it’s time to take a hold of the division. Plus Seattle, coming off a preseason win in Week 1 versus the Rams (who are that bad), is banged up even more with Seattle WRs T.J. Houshmanzadeh (back spasms) and Deion Branch (vagina) questionable. I see the Niners playing mistake free football again and winning a tight one at home. I mean, you better run your ass off if you are on the 49ers……Mike Singletary IS timing you.
NYG +2.5/+120 Money Line
Take the points or the spread, either way, the Giants are going to win. They have played well there under Coughlin during his tenure, and the Cowboys have a bandwagon following again after destroying a weak Buccanneers team in Week 1.
Cleveland/Denver Over 37
Both teams’ QBs did not play as bad, or as good, as their stats indicated last week. Both teams have enough offensive talent to score 24 a piece on each other. Do not let the Broncos’ defense fool you; they are still terrible when they don’t play Cincinnati, just look at Jay Culter, who sucked in Week 1 versus Green Bay, tearing them up in the preseason game 3 weeks ago. The Browns have a long way to go, and are still tired after Adrian Peterson stiff-armed their entire team last Sunday.
Teaser of the Week:
Green Bay -3.5 vs Cincinnati/ Detroit +16 vs Minnesota
Thursday/Friday Links
Even my soccer lock of the week whiffed…Onto the links because at least they don’t cause me to set money on fire. I should just roll something smokable with a $20 and get it over with.
Bengals LT and Hard Knocks Man-Boob [NSFW] star Andre Smith apparently should have hired a better agent.
That shot by Federer explained.
Jake Long did not have a good day Sunday.
The Pats cheerleaders did.
Spend the five minutes to watch this. “If we’re all at peace with ourselves as much as he is, that’s pretty good.”
Best story of the week: Kid Cannabis
The only thing the drug kingpin formerly known as the Keebler Elf needed was a girlfriend. He found her, of course, at a strip club.
Per usual, the week two injury report from profootballtalk.com
Lastly, in case you thought crazy owners/fans were limited to Oakland, the Atlético Madrid owner’s call for ‘peace and tolerance’ has backfired spectacularly as fans revolt.
2009 NFL Week 2 – Early Plays
Still cleaning up after myself thanks to an ugly week 1. -10u. I would take all four of those bets again, though admittedly the Lions bet was probably too ambitious.
Early plays this week:
Cleveland/Denver Over 37 4u
Sticking with my preseason assessment that both of these defenses are below average at best. Line may be up to 37.5 across the board by now.
Minnesota @ Detroit +10 2u
I’m going to continue betting on Detroit and against Minnesota for the foreseeable future. At least this week I only need to bet one game.
Early leans:
WTF is going on with the Pats/Jets line? It opened in some places as high as +6.5 NYJ and has been bet down as low as 3. This has to be an overreaction by NY money based on week 1 games. Clearly, the Pats are the better team here, right?
Pittsburgh @ Chicago +3
If Cutler plays well last week, this is Chicago +1
NYG +3 @ Dallas
Giants getting 3 points vs. Dallas? Yes, please.
Indy @ Miami +3
I like Miami but can’t yet articulate why.
All three of you comment away.
NFL Plays today
Here are my NFL plays:
Miami/Atlanta Over 44
I just think this will be a shootout and the most exciting game of the day. Someone is going to win 41-38.
Baltimore -13
The real question is whether Baltimore’s offense can cover. KC scoring more than 14 points would be a shock.
SF +6/+215 Money Line @ Arizona
San Francisco is the most boring team in the league…..which I think helps them vs a high scoring offense. They’ll hold the ball and win the turnover and time possession battle and keep things close. I expect the true Arizona to shine through (the one who struggled this preseason, especially on defense) and make enough mistakes to keep this divisional tilt close. You can make a small play at the money line too; this is a winnable game early in the season for Singletary’s crew.
Tease
StL +14 @ Seattle/NO -8 vs Detroit
Seattle is at home, where they play strong, but banged up. They will be missing their best offensive (OL W.Jones) and defensive (CB M.Trufant) players. The Rams now actually have a coach in Steve Spagnolo, and these two always play close games in their short NFC West history.
Detroit still has a bad secondary, but the Saints sometimes keep teams hanging around closer than they should because their defense is average.
NFL Week 1 Picks
Just three games for me in week 1
Minnesota @ Cleveland +4
This game represents everything that is good about NFL gambling.
First, we have a home underdog. Read everything here about why these are good to bet on.
Second, the public is all over the Vikings by as much as a 4:1 ratio, yet the line, which started at 3, hasn’t moved past 3.5 at some books. Probably because of this new QB playing for Minnesota
Third, even though Browns coach Eric Mangini fails at communicating, the man can game plan with anyone in the league and he’ll have his team ready on week 1.
Detroit +13.5 @ New Orleans
Two unit play here. Taking a non-public team and 13.5 is too many points for any NFL game in week 1.
Washington @ New York Giants -6.5
Feeler play here. I have nothing rational that would justify action on a game with a proper line.
EDIT: Adding a teaser for 4u Carolina +8.5 and Seattle -1.5
2009 NFL Over Under Season Win Totals
Atlanta Falcons Under 8.5 EVEN
Atlanta and Miami were the biggest surprises in the NFL last season and both teams will look to continue their winning ways this season. While Miami’s been given a much more achievable target of 7 or 7.5 wins, Atlanta is higher at 8.5 across the board. That’s strictly a reflection of the very good play from Matt Ryan and the acquisition of Tony Gonzalez. I have few doubts regarding this team’s ability to score points. Their problems are entirely on the defensive side.
Atlanta’s defense benefited from an easy schedule, the offense often jumping out to an early lead and the outstanding play of John Abraham at DE last season. Otherwise, they failed to cover and tackle well and the defense is still a work in progress, most notably at corner where the Falcons just traded for Rams castoff and former 1st round pick Tye Hill to play nickel.
If Abraham plays in all 16 games and gets some help from anyone else on the D-Line, and the offense performs as expected, 9-11 wins is possible. More likely, Abraham fails to play in 16 games and/or isn’t quite as effective, the offense is forced to play from behind more often, and this team reverts back to .500 or worse. The Falcons face the AFC East and NFC West on their out of conference schedule, starting this week at home to Miami.
Minnesota Vikings Under 10 EVEN
This bet was made against the local resident Vikings fan, but I’d still take the action at 9.5, though obviously much happier getting a push at 10. The Vikings are essentially the exact same team as last year, but their division rivals have all visibly improved. Where did Minnesota get better? I don’t see how a 39 year old QB who’s had all of 3 weeks of practice time with his receivers is a better option than Sage ‘Helicopter‘ Rosenfels or Tavaris Jackson, who was excellent the last 4 games of last season.
Brad Childress is definitely the worst coach in the division, and one of the worst in the league. 6 unit play here.
Buffalo Bills u7 +110
My bet of the year. The line posted is from Bookmaker and better than u8 -200 or worse and marginally better than u7.5 -150 at The Greek. Buffalo not only plays two well coached and more talented teams twice (NE and MIA), they also face the AFC & NFC South on their out of conference schedule. The more I look at this team, the more I wonder if they’ll even win 5 or 6, much less 7 or 8. Their offense is a mess (click the Bills links) and their defense, while competent lacks depth leaving only their special teams as a strength. Dick Jauron has to be the favorite to be first coach fired this season.
From Lombardi:
Again, this proves the point that most problems within organizations lie in their inability to self-evaluate. The Bills had no passing game last year, and although they had some talented players, their production never matched the talent. Keeping the status quo has made this season very challenging, and the hope for success is just that — hope. I would love to know who made the design for the Bills of 2009.
Now they go to New England with three-fifths of their offensive line gone from last year. All the money paid to Walker and Derrick Dockery in free agency two years ago has been wasted. The design of this team has been bad, and at some point the Bills have to get someone in their building who can build a team that can compete with the Dolphins, the Patriots and even the Jets on and (most critically) off the field. The Bills are going nowhere until they admit their planning and design has been flawed. They need one person in the building, a coach or personnel man, who can make the right choices and design the right plan because the level of competition in the AFC East is and will remain very fierce and intellectually challenging.
Dallas Cowboys u9.5 -125
Oakland Raiders u5.5 +110
Small plays here, see Sean‘s writeup.
Detroit Lions Over 4.5 -130
This is an “I believe in Jim Schwarz” bet as Detroit has kept only 22 players from last year’s 0-16 team. They should be OK on offense and they play the AFC North and NFC West which, combined with a professional coaching staff (See Atlanta 2007 vs. 2008) should be plenty to get them to 5 wins.
Summary:
Atlanta u8.5 4 units
Minnesota u10 6 units
Buffalo u7 10 units
Dallas u9.5 2 units
Oakland u5.5 2 units
Detroit o4.5 3 units
Today’s plays
As I myself am on tilt after Chile gives up two goals…….while UP A MAN (WTF!)……..there is an interesting teaser opportunity if you are itching for some action tonight. I am generally not a big fan of teasers, although I am 1-1 so far with last week’s South Carolina (+5.5 @ NC State) and Notre Dame (-10.5, Nevada). I was able to get SC at +1 and ND -6.5 on a 6 point teaser which was not only highly successful, but also opportunistic as I felt the bookies had made slight mistakes with both lines BEFORE I teased it down at the same -110 price.
Pittsburgh is -6.5 tonight at home to the Titans. I felt that was a bit too much, although they will definitely win the game (I think no ring team has yet to lose the Thursday opener) and I really like a close battle in the ACC tonight between Clemson and GA Tech, as both teams know that this is a big game tonight in a very wide open ACC. Clemson also has a new coach in Dabo Sweeney (whose teams covered the last 4 games of the year in ’08), who actually has a pulse and can motivate and coach during games…..unlike the last coach, Tommy Bowden, who was great at recruiting, but not good at game planning (or keeping his daughter’s nude spread eagle pic off of the interweb). Paul Johnson leads and GT squad who can run that football, with arguably the best running back in the country in Jonathan Dwyer; their defense is vulnerable in the secondary, and Clemson usually has some of the best WR recruits in the nation.
So, I took a 6-point tease with Pittsburgh now at +0.5 and Clemson +11.5 @ -110. 15.48 to win 30, why not?
Thursday Links
Still on tilt from soccer yesterday thanks to Finland failing and Chile conspiring to lose after tying the game and being up an extra man. -7.32 units yesterday, -3.32 since this site started.
My favorite sentence from the writeups:
It was the product of a collective lack of focus at a moment when too many Finnish players apparently thought the match was won.
In classical terms, hubris was followed smartly by nemesis.
Live & learn. My real job is my latest excuse for the lack of over/unders being posted. No play for me on either PIT or TEN this year. Onto the links:
Maybe some state other than Delaware will try and legalize sports betting now?
I take back what I said about the Bills & Jauron being slightly competent. They are definitely not.
Why Eric Mangini is limited as a head coach.
Simmons on the still unsigned Michael Crabtree (sidebar, near the end). Best analogy ever.
Week 1 injury report here.
