Category: NFL
Week 8 NFL
Vikings -3.5 -115
Has jumped b/t -4 and -3.5. The Cardinals stink, are banged up, and the coach is trying his best to get fired before the shitty Denver guy.
Bears +10 -110
Too many points. Should be 7-8. Dallas might have the 2nd best defense in the NFL behind Denver; their offense is putrid however and this should be lots of punting between these teams.
New Orleans +1.5
74% of the money is on the Raiders.
Steelers at Eagles OVER 43 -110
Both teams should be throwing a lot. Also taking Kenny Pickett Passing Yards OVER 217.5 -120 and Jalen Hurts Rushing Yards UNDER 47.5 -115
TEASER 6.5 +125: Ravens +1, Saints +1, 49ers +1
Props: Daniel Jones Rushing Yards OVER 38.5 -126; Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards OVER 37/5 -114; Cooper Kupp Receptions OVER 7.5 -140; Matt Stafford INT OVER 0.5 -137
DFS:
Week 7 NFL
Washington +5.5 (-117)
Now at +4… should be +3.5, even with Heincke starting. Washington’s defense is actually OK, they have some good players (who will leave and play for other teams next year i.e. CB William Jackson III who NE may be in on) but this bet is more about the Packers who are not more than 3 points better than anyone right now (minus Carolina). Their OL is hurt and a mess, Matt LaFleur is calling the game ass backwards, their WR core is inexperienced, and post-tripping balls Aaron Rodgers has been bad at football.
Atlanta +6.5 (-105)
Did you know this mid football team is 6-0 ATS this year?
Broncos +1.5 (-105)
The Broncos today actually have a starting QB who has beaten the Jets before (Brett Rypien).
Chiefs at 49ers OVER 49 (-110)
Should be points in this one today… also taking Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards OVER 15.5.
Props: Daniel Jones Rushing Yards OVER 34.5 +105
TEASER +150: Patriots -7.5, Ravens -7, Raiders -7
DFS:
Week 6 NFL
Pittsburgh +9.5 (-103)
Was at -9. Pittsburgh has secondary issues, rookie QB on his second start, and has a win differential of -51. BUT…Tampa I don’t think is 7 points better than anybody *not* named Carolina or Washington right now due to offensive issues (although Fournette has been awesome) and Brady skipped a walk through to go to a wedding. Due to this game also potnetially being a blowout (and providing miracle cover opportunities), I also like for props Kenny Pickett Throwing Yards OVER 235.5 (-114) and George Pickens OVER catches 4.5 (+105) and George Pickens Receiving Yards OVER 50.5 (-115)
Patriots ML +123
Zappe fever, baby! But more getting odds in a coinflip game with one flawed team (Patriots) and another banged up team (Browns) run by a career backup QB. I also like Total FGs by both teams OVER 3.5 (+110).
LA Rams -10 (-106)
The Rams’ OL and running game is atrocious but Carolina is in full tank mode. McCaffrey is on the trading block; will be interesting to see where he goes. XFL MVP P.J. Walker starts for Carolina; if these were XFL rules, I’d take Walker and the points here. No Cooper Kupp receptions prop this week; the juice is too high, but I like WR Ben Skowronek OVER 3.5 receptions +115
Arizona at Seattle UNDER 50.5 (-110)
Just too high.
TEASER 6.5 +150: Jaguars +1.5, Patriots +2.5, 49ers -4
Props: Daniel Jones Rushing Yards OVER 34.5 -114
DFS:
NFL Week 5
Dallas +5.5 (-115)
Now at +5. This will be a de facto home game for the Cowboys as the majority of the stadium will be Dallas fans… the Rams may have to use silent count again in their place lol. The Rams have struggled protecting Stafford and their offense is just essentially Kupp and Higbee. I will also add, while he may not have a better cahnce of putting up 40 points i na game than Dak Prescott, the Cowboys’ offense under Rush has…looked more efficient. Less penalties, INTs, negative plays… and this prudence I think benefits the Dallas team more since their defense is top 5. Still taking Cooper Kupp receptions OVER 8.5 (-103); it’s 3-1 so far because him in the slot essentially *is* the Rams’ running game.
Titans -1 (-105)
Was at -3. I’ll take Mike Vrabel in a coinflip versus this shitty Washington team.
49ers -6.5 -115
Taking Jimmy G on the road scares me but this Panthers team is atrocious.
Steelers at Bills OVER 45 (-110)
The Steelers actually have a professional, yet rookie, QB now in Kenny Pickett. Should be points in this one.
Props: Justin Fields Rushing Yards OVER 39.5 (-120); Carolina Panthers Touchdowns ZERO +325
TEASER 6.5 +135: Vikings -7.5, 49ers -6.5, Jaguars -7
DFS:
Week 4 NFL
Packers -9 (-110)
Has been at 10, settling at 9.5. There is just no way that Brian Hoyer can move this already piss poor offense any more than Mac Jones, who has done OK but has struggled with turnovers and inconsistency in his second year, has. Also, DT Lawrence Guy is out for the Patriots; when he left last week’s game, Ravens’ RB (not named Lamar) got 8 yards per carry. Also taking Aaron Jones Rushing yards OVER 56.5 (-110).
Broncos at Raiders OVER 45 (-110)
Game in Vegas, should be a lot of Denver fans with a fun atmosphere. The Raiders’ defense stinks. I also expect points coming off of offense fail from these flawed teams.
Bears +3
Getting points in a coinflip game.
TEASER 6.5 +150: Eagles -7, Arizona +1.5, Chargers -6
Props: Josh Allen Rushing Yards OVER 40.5 -114, Passing Yards OVER 286.5 -115, Gabriel Davis Anytime TD +135, Daniel Jones Rushing Yards OVER 31.5 -108, Justin Fields Rushing OVER 39.5 -115
DFS:
Week 3
Buffalo at Miami OVER 52.5 (-115)
Now at 54. Bills defense is banged up, and these teams throw the ball most downs anyways. Should be a fun, wild one in Miami.
Detroit +6 (-105)
Taking the ATS superstars vs Kirk Cousins.
Houston ML +130
It’s at +3 but this game is a coin flip and Houston can win this game vs a meh Bears squad. They have kept games close in their first 2.
New Orleans -2 (-105)
Jameis and the Saints beat a shitty Carolina team, right? Also taking 1Q UNDER 7 (EVEN)
Props: Cooper Kupp Receptions OVER 8.5 -108; Josh Allen Rusing Yards OVER 39.5 -115 and Passing Attempts OVER 34.5 -114
TEASER (6 pts) +150: Cowboys +1, Eagles -6, Packers +1
DFS:
NFL Week 2
Steelers +2.5 -110
The Patriots offense stinks, what do you expect from Joe Judge and Matt Patricia. On the other side of the ball, its Mitch Truibisky vs Bill Belichick but Tua is 4-0 vs Belichick so it’s clear Bill is losing his fastball.
NY Giants +1 -115
Brian Daboll and Daniel Jones and Saquan Barkley are better than Matt Rhule, C Mac, and Baker right? I, of course, am still taking first drive of the game ends in a punt for NY at -145.
Cardinals at Raiders OVER 51.5 -110
These defenses stink. Should be plenty of hilarious fail in this game that results in points.
Colts at Jags OVER 43.5 -110
This was at 45.5. Just feel there will be a lot of throwing the ball today, especially by Jacksonville.
Tampa at New Orleans UNDER 44 -110
Two good defenses, division game, Saints good history vs Brady and all Tampa WR are questionable or out.
TEASER 6.5 +135:
Steelers +2.5, Bengals -7.5, Browns -6.5
Prop of the day: Cooper Kupp Receptions OVER 8.5 +100
DFS:
Week 1 NFL
Miami -3 (-115)
The Patriots lose in Miami every year…. it’s why Belichick too the team down there early.
Chiefs at Cardinals OVER 53.5 -110
This could be the “wild” game of the day
Colts -7 -110
The Texans suck.
Props:
NY Giants at Titans First Drive ends in a punt – YES @ -143
Trey Lance Interceptions OVER 0.5 +125
TEASER +250: Colts -8, Ravens -7, Titans -6.5, 49ers -7
DFS:
2022 NFL Preview
2022 is here…year has flown by really. We are already 2 weeks into college football with games that have given me plenty of reasons why not to bet on college football.
Here’s the NFL Preview, we’ll go by division on my thoughts and plays n props I have made are in BOLD. First with the NFC…
NFC East:
I’m bullish on Philly this year; the picked up A.J. Brown at WR and rookie from Georgia DT Jordan Davis could be the next big thing on defense at that position. Their schedule also is super easy; they will probably be favored in their first 4 games. I have the Eagles OVER at 9.5 (-145). I can see them getting to as high as 12 games this year. Jalen Hurts sophomore slump is always a concern (along with issues getting off his first read) but that’s something we can exploit when the playoffs come around. Dallas will probably make the playoffs and lose in the first round because Mike McCarthy forgot time ran out or something. The Giants will be boring but probably get a little better by the end of the season with Daboll under the helm. I also took the Washington Commanders UNDER 8 (-125) because their name is terrible, their owner is terrible, and their QB is terrible (although if Wentz gets hurt if Sam Howell plays it could be in danger he looked good in preseason). Eagles and Cowboys both +150 to win division; sounds about right.
NFC North:
Boring division. Aaron Rodgers is bitching again, now about his WRs since DaVante is gone; you’d think he’d be more chill after a summer of tripping balls in the Peruvian desert. Minnesota will be the same as last year, including having the usual kicker woes because Vikings. Detroit will be slightly improved from last year; as we saw on Hard Knocks, Dan Campbell’s style of coaching is welcomed by players and they were one of the better teams’ ATS last year. The Lions issue is more at QB and depth at RB; Hutchinson on defense looks to be a stud however. I have Chicago’s UNDER at 6 (-125); I believe 6 wins is their ceiling: superstar LB Roquan Smith is not happy and will probably be traded, bad juju around them potentially leaving Soldiers Field, and Justin Fields at QB…he looks just meh. The Packers win this division, I guess… but if you are feeling froggy for a longshot Detroit at +1000 (Lou’s been talking about this one for years LOL).
NFL South:
Pat Darts’ likes Tampa’s under at 11.5 (+130) after Tom Brady “unretirement” stunt where he tried to retire under former HC Bruce Arians. The Buccaneers’ owners, the Glazers, flew Brady to the UK to hang out with Ronaldo at Manchester United to convince him to come back. As a result, Arians “retired” up to the front office and now Todd Bowles is coach. According to Brady’s new contract, he also had input in defensive game planning. Why not just make him the coach at this point? Now Brady is reportedly having issues at home with his wife AND he lost his starting center in training camp. Despite all this, they probably win at least 11 games and the division which is full of young, incomplete teams: Matt Rhule is the favorite to be the first coach to be fired; the Saints have Jameis at QB, and the Falcons are young and led by Marcus Mariota.
NFC West:
LA is super talented, they have a good coach, and they don’t care about the salary cap. They probably should not only win this division, but also the conference. San Francisco may have something to say about that; I have the 49ers to make the playoffs at -200 and they could meet LA again at SoFi in the playoffs like last year. Arizona could be the LOL team of the year; Kliff Kingsbury first to be fired is tasty at +1000 after the offseason they had. The Cardinals’ front office is so full of nepotism and failure they can’t even get re-signing their QB right (when he’s not on the tablet playing Hearthstone). Seattle, despite a good WR and RB group, maybe the WORST team in football. I am taking the Seahawks UNDER 5.5 (-115) because there is no way Drew Lock and Geno Smith combined (with a terrible OL) can win 5 games.
AFC
AFC East:
I have the Bills OVER at 11.5 (-115); I think they win at least 13 and try their darnest to get the AFC Championship game at Rich Stadium (I’m calling it that I don’t care what the new name is) this year. Them to win division at -240 isn’t a bad play either; week 1 BUF at LA Rams could be a Super Bowl preview. The Patriots offense looks bland but with Matt Patricia and Joe Judge involved, what would you expect? I just hope they don’t fuck up Mac Jones’ development; Pats’ saving grace is their defense and special teams. The Dolphins have made a ton of fun new offensive additions with Tyreek Hill and Chase Edmonds, with a Kyle Shanahan protégé as play caller, but their defense still isn’t good enough for me to say they can challenge for the division. Miami and the Patriots probably do dig it out for the 7th playoff spot. The Jets, as usual, suck.
AFC South:
I took the Colts to win the division at -130; they have an actual professional QB now in Matt Ryan with a top 3 running game in football and a fast, good tackling defense. The Titans will dig it out for the wild card spots; they lost a lot of players in Free Agency and if you’d watched the preseason, QB Malik Willis looked so good one should think he should start now over Ryan Tannehill; the Titans secondary still is blah however. Jaguars will slightly improve and I have Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards OVER 4000.5 -125 as he now has actual professional coaching. The Texans will dual it out with Seattle to be the shittiest team in the league.
AFC North:
Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati can all win this division; they can also all go 8-9 with injuries. Cleveland sucks and I think the DeShaun Watson move was a mistake but what do you expect from an owner whose company was involved in a fraud scandal.
AFC West:
What a fun division! All of these teams can make the playoffs, and 3/4 can also make the Super Bowl (minus Denver; they project to be a Wild Card contending team). The Raiders have an awesome receiving group; the question is Derek Carr under McDaniels. I have Chargers UNDER 10.5 -115 for small amount as folks are a little TOO high on them, the coach goes for it on 4th down like it’s a Madden exhibition game, and their special teams’ is still Chargery.
Early Trends
Until further notice, I think it is worth blindly betting LA Dodgers team unders. The catchy tag-line following the Freeman signing went “Dodgers’ Best Line-Up Ever.” This team will certainly hit major grooves at points this year but they seem off at the moment. They needed a dropped fly ball on Sunday just to get multiple runs in Colorado, and only plated 2 runs the game previous. To be fair, Will Smith was out of the lineup for both those games and he’s no slap-hitter, but nevertheless, the team as a whole doesn’t appear locked-in offensively. Combine this with the media-generated expectation inflation, and ‘team total under’ becomes the play in the immediate future.
The same is going to be true for the time being in regards to D-backs team unders. No hit by SPs on back-to-back games to start the season…This team needs to prove itself offensively. Not impressed by 5 runs on Sunday in what turned out to be a BPen game and blowout.
