Category: NFL
Thursday Links
Back from the homeland & blogging again…
Good clock management story today on ESPN from Greg Garber. The column mentions Dick Curl & Herm Edwards at one point, which gives me reason to re-quote my favorite story from the 2009 season.
Is there a less encouraging sight than Dick Curl excitedly imparting information to an overwhelmed head coach trying to make a crucial strategic decision? He’s like a two-minute drill saboteur. Lost in the Jim Zorn bashing this week after the Rams-Redskins game was a vintage piece of Dick Curl gamesmanship at the 9:25 mark in the fourth quarter with the Rams down 9-7 and facing 4th-and-2 on the Washington 41. Now, what would someone who is not Dick Curl recommend in this situation? Send the offense back out and go for it? Attempt the long field goal? Solid choices, but lacking in the Curl touch. Wouldn’t it be better to call a timeout after an incompletion, line up in a fake punt formation with an eye toward drawing Washington offside, only to have one of your guys commit a false start at the last second, killing any chance for a field goal or manageable fourth-down conversion? Brilliant. I’m interested in who else Steve Spagnuolo considered for the clock wrangler job before settling on Curl. There were people in the McKinley administration with a better sense of when to take a timeout.
This point admittedly seemed more controversial two weeks ago, back when the Colts were 14-0 and the Saints were 13-1. Back-to-back losses have left both teams vulnerable entering the playoffs. Turner’s the last man standing all right, but his case would be complete with or without the late-season swoon from Jim Caldwell and Sean Payton. All it did was remind us that a good coach—fundamentally—is someone who keeps preventable damage to a minimum. That’s Norv Turner. Norv Turner is a good coach. How the hell did this happen?
For readers under the age of three, it’s worth noting that Turner was considered an apocalyptically bad head coach for nearly a decade. He went 49-59-1 in seven seasons in Washington and 9-23 in two years in Oakland. Since taking the Chargers job in 2007 he is 32-16, with a 3-2 mark in the playoffs Whether Turner improved in San Diego or merely had his incompetence outpaced by a new generation of coaches is debatable. Not debatable is Turner’s performance over the past one-and-a-half seasons holding together a Chargers team that had every excuse to go to pieces.
Top NFL Business Stories of 2009. I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about this, especially during Lions games, and I’ll certainly have more on it this offseason.
Despite several recent meetings between the NFL and its labor counterpart, the NFL Players Association, regarding the extension of the labor agreement ratified in March of 2006, it appears we’re headed for a different system come March.
The amazing thing about this negotiation, unlike any other in modern professional sports, is that ownership is ready and willing to embrace a system without a Cap and the players are arguing in earnest for continued operation with a Cap.
In looking more closely, one can see two reasons: (1) Among the poison pills built into a system without a cap are two more years required for free agency, meaning 212 players – including top players such as Logan Mankins, Elvis Dumervil and Vincent Jackson – who would be free to negotiate with any team in the league now cannot; and (2) the lack of a spending floor that will permit (encourage) teams to roll back player costs and gear up for the next system, with or without a cap.
The gap between good and bad appears to be widening. The successful teams of recent years – Patriots, Colts, Chargers, Eagles, Packers, etc. – continue to have success. The unsuccessful teams of recent years – Lions, Raiders, Browns, Rams, Bills, etc. – continue to have challenges (the Rams and Lions will draft in the first two slots in consecutive years). The games appeared less competitive, especially early in the season.
Get all of your decade best-of lists here.
Boris Becker is playing poker.
NBA Jam is coming for the Wii!!!!
The evolution of soccer tactics and a video of the making of the World Cup ball.
Lastly…
This week in Jersey Shore:
This may be shocking, but it turns out, “The situation is that the “The Situation” is no stranger to getting paid to walk around shirtless.”
Best quotes from last week’s episode here. From the recap:
It wasn’t entirely clear how the gang scored themselves an invite to Sleazeside’s version of Lake Havasu, but we’re fairly certain the lake that they were romping in contains more crabs than your local Red Lobster. The highlight of the afternoon was clearly when Pauly D hopped in the water and not a single hair on his head moved.
NFL Playoff Line Pick’em Challenge
I suggested over a few beers at the Castle a NFL Playoff Pick’em Challenge here at Miracle Covers.
Basically for 10 bucks, you pick ALL of the games’ lines and compete against the other players for the best overall record thru the Super Bowl (11 games, total) for the pot. There is also a side bet for another kitty that goes towards the pursuit of perfection, as it is VERY hard (and is the gambling Holy Grail, minus maybe winning a NCAA Bracket). If you go 11-0, you win the side pot.
If you are still mathematically alive, the SB Final Score will be tiebreaker #1. If we have more that 2 going into SB week for a chance, the Pro Bowl could also be used as a secondary tie breaker as well.
The lines we will use will be from Pinnacle, and will be posted Thursday afternoon after the injury report. I will then post everyone’s picks on the site for tracking and bragging rights. Your picks must be in BEFORE kickoff of the first game that weekend.
Just post interest below, tell Darts/Lou, or shoot me an email @ sean@miraclecovers.com
Have a chance to win some dough and use it to party with JaMarcus Russell at the Palms in Vegas!
GL!
EDIT: Lou here, just a couple of things to clear up:
1) Sean will post the lines we will be using Thursday afternoon/evening. Picks are due by kickoff of the first game and can be emailed to either me or Sean or posted in the comments. 10 fun units each, winner take all. I’ll take care of posting a spreadsheet with everyone’s picks and the score each week.
Week 17
KC +12 @ Denver
Got this in the second just after McDaniels benched Scheffler AND Marshall for a game (now @ +10), they need to win to have any sniff of the playoffs. How this team even made the 7 win under/over total a sweat after starting 6-0 makes me wanna puke. So does the idea of watching this game. “Denver is 2-7 in its past nine games! Kansas City is 9-38 over the past three seasons! Orton! Savage! It’s the NFL on CBS!”
Baltimore-10 @ Oakland
Win and in for the Ravens, AND if Oakland loses, I ship the 5.5 Season under bet. Imagine if shitty teams could rest their guys like the good teams do before the playoffs. The press conferences would be hysterical. Cable: “We are resting our guys for our 11 am tee time at Pebble Beach Monday. We are also going to not play JaMarcus because we fear the more he plays, the more confidence he loses.”
Colts @ Buffalo Under 33
Colts resting starters (and not for a bad reason like last week; you play to win the game, baby! This goes to show Bill Polian really runs the show in Indy), Buffalo sucks even in perfect conditions, AND it’s lake effect blizzard conditions in Buffalo for the entire game. I have been to one of these games in 2000 when the 4-11 Pats played the 8-7 Bills in Orchard Park under 2 feet of snow. The Pats won 6-3 in OT. I’ll take the under.
6pt Teaser
GB +9 @ Arizona
Carolina -1 vs NO
I hope everyone is having a good start to 2010. You know the alumni of South Florida and Northern Illnois who went to the International Bowl in Toronto did!
The Freeroll Game, a Follow-up
So I said we were going to keep half an eye on this freeroll game thing from last week so let’s take a looksie back to Week 16. Before we do I should note that on Monday Night Football the Giants crushed the underdog Redskins putting the total for Week 15 at 6 Underdog wins, 2 double the spreads by favorites, and 8 Nothin’ Doin’s. As for Week 16…
San Diego/Tennessee – Underdog San Diego wins
Buffalo/Atlanta – Atlanta doubles spread
Kansas City/Cincinnati – Nothing
Oakland/Cleveland – Cleveland doubles spread
Seattle/Green Bay – Green Bay doubles spread
Houston/Miami – Underdog Houston wins
Jacksonville/New England – New England doubles spread
Tampa Bay/New Orleans – Underdog Tampa Bay wins
Carolina/Giants – Underdog Carolina wins
Baltimore/Pittsburgh – Nothing
St Louis/Arizona – Nothing
Detroit/San Francisco – Nothing
Jets/Indianapolis – Underdog Jets win
Denver/Philadelphia – Nothing
Dallas/Washington – Dallas doubles spread
Minnesota/Chicago – Underdog Chicago wins
WWWOOOOOOOOOOOOOOAAAAAAHHHHHHHHH!!! what in the name of bill parcells in going on here? 16 games were on the board. 6 underdog outright wins? 5 favorites double the spread? and the people making these lines are professionals! imagine the results if they didn’t know precisely what they were doing! lets see what i like this week.
Chicago (-3) @ Detroit
When has Detroit shown at any point during the season that they should be getting this level of respect? In my mind this line should be 7.
Giants (+9) @ Minnesota
I think the Giants will come to play and give the Vikings a decent fight. I think they would like to end the season with guns drawn.
As a side note, three games this weekend will have a solid chance of being playoff previews during the wild card. In order of sexiness
Packers/Cards
Philly/Dallas
Bengals/Jets
Another side note is that the last week is obviusly gut check time for season total bets. I’m looking at you, Atlanta.
Week 16 Plays
Arizona -14 vs St.L
Oakland @ Cleveland Under 37
Teaser 6pt
Atlanta 1.5 vs Buffalo
Baltimore +10 @ Pittsburgh
The Freeroll Game
So recently I have been giving Van Tran some freeroll bets on sports. I am living rent free at 55 Montfern, so I’m giving the young man an opportunity to make some cash on the side. But I can’t just say “Alright, the Jets are minus 5.5, who do you like?” That would be a little too generous.
The result is The Freeroll Game. The player gets two picks from the slate of games. For those two picks, they get two selections; that an underdog will win outright in a game, or that a favored team will win by double the spread. As case in point, the San Diego/Cincinnati game yesterday had San Diego as a 6.5 favorite. If you go for this game, you are either choosing that the Bengals will win or that San Diego will win by 13 or more. Note 13 here is not a push, 13 is a win. For his two selections, Van played the roll of fan, choosing the underdog Dolphins to win, and charity case, selecting the favored Giants to double the spread tonight in Washington.
Here is how the pay works for The Freeroll Game. I offered Van two selections on his two picks. He could do separate picks at 30 dollar payouts, 0 for 0 right, 30 for 1 right, 60 for 2 right, or he could parlay the picks, 0 for 0 right, 0 for 1 right, 100 for 2 right. Van opted for the first plan picking the games separately and it is good he did since the Dolphins lost in overtime. Let’s take a look at the games and see how things shaked out in regards to The Freeroll Game.
Indy/Jax – Nothing
Saints/Dallas – Underdog Dallas wins
Atlanta/Jets – Underdog Atlanta wins
Houston/St Louis – Nothing
Cleveland/Kansas City – Underdog Cleveland wins
Miami/Tennessee – Nothing
Arizona/Detroit – Nothing
New England/Buffalo – Nothing
Cincinnati/San Diego – Nothing
Oakland/Denver – Underdog Oakland wins
Chicago/Baltimore – Baltimore doubles spread
Tampa Bay/Seattle – Underdog Seattle wins
Green Bay/Pittsburgh – Nothing
San Francisco/Philadelphia – Nothing
Minnesota/Carolina – Underdog Carolina wins
That is 6 underdogs winning outright and only one team doubling the spread as the favorite. Is this an indication of something? Is this a fluke? Is this normal? I have no idea, but it is something to keep half an eye on, and it is, The Freeroll Game.
NFL Week 15 Plays
Lots of action this weekend…
San Francisco @ Philadelphia (-7.5)
Atlanta @ NY Jets (-5.5)
Tampa Bay (+7) @ Seattle
NY Giants @ Washington (+3)
Minnesota @ Carolina (+9)
Week 15 Ramble Drill
We start the week with this mantra I learned from Eric Mangini’s interview with NFL Network this week: “Sometimes punting isn’t always a bad thing” (you know that’s a shot at BB).
Herm Edwards’ advice for Tiger Woods
Thanks to Brian Billick, his adjective for Jay Cutler, “Jeff Georgish”, is now going to be an EXTENSIVE part of my sports vocab on Sundays from now on. You can even apply it to other things in life, like restaurant reviews: “Heading into an Italian dinner in the North End I was excited, but after having the rubbery pasta, it meal itself was a bit Jeff Georgish.”
Looks like the guys who made the Comcast info descriptions for TV programs don’t try that hard:
At least the Entertainment Division seems to be stepping up it’s game:
Onto NCAA News, congrats to the South Carolina Gamecocks who will face UConn in the PapaJohns.com Bowl, and to the Clemson Tigers who will face the Kentucky Wildcats in the GAYlord Hotels Bowl. Way to go, fellas! We’ll keep a close eye on these bowls here at Miracle Covers because quite simply, people who gamble on these games will be the only ones watching them.
Brad Gradkowski blowing out his knee may have saved by Oakland Raiders under season 5.5 bet (they have 4 wins now). They were playing well under him and even beat Pittsburgh IN Pittsburgh. Now Oakland has to rely on the Charlie Frye and/or JaMarcus Russell experience. I think my bet is safe.
If the Cowboys lose the rest of their games in December, I ship my under bet with them as well. Not out of the realm of possibility.
Here are the picks of the week, I have Jax in a teaser which shipped its end last night if it wasn’t for Peyton Manning, who is a machine. 12-12, 116, 2 Tds in 10 minutes in the 1st half alone last night. Ridiculious. I am sure GB will lose by 8 on Sunday.
6 pt Teasers:
Jax +9 vs Colts
GB +7 vs Pittsburgh
and
Denver -7.5 vs Oakland (led by Charlie Frye!)
San Diego -0.5 vs Cincinnati
Dallas/NO Over 52.5
Baltimore -10 vs Chicago (Good thing I got this in on Monday, now at 11)
Friday Links
Light links this week…picks I’m going to lose money on this weekend.
Worst Date Ever (serios). Complete with MS Paint NSFW Imagery.
The story above references a pee bottle, something I’ve never heard of, but Stuttgart GK Jens Lehmann could have used one last week.
Former Ravens coach Brian Billick compared Jay Cutler to Jeff George this week. That’s can’t be a good thing.
I was a huge Jay Cutler fan, and I’m not ready to bail on him yet. But I’m going to make an analogy here that’s going to scare a lot of people. He’s beginning to feel Jeff Georgish. Tremendous talent. The two interceptions, two touchdowns in the game [Sunday]. The interceptions, you just scratch your head and say, ‘Where exactly were you going with this ball?’ And then the two touchdown throws … there is probably not four guys in this league that could make the kind of throws that he made to get those two touchdowns. So it’s a head-scratcher. Obviously huge, huge potential. But right now, it’s only potential I think.
Fidelity fired four of their employees for playing fantasy football at work. I guess firing people for surfing the internet is next.
Maybe they’ll have time to follow this guy’s advice on how to make a billion dollars. It’d make a great infomercial spot.
NFL Week 15 Early Leans & Stats of the Week
I don’t know and haven’t measured how relevant road records are come playoff time, but I’d be willing to believe there’s a predictive element in there someplace. Teams that win at home are taking care of their business; teams that win on the road, even against bad teams, are legitimately good. Below are the current road records for all teams to date without further comment.
NFC
New Orleans Saints 7-0
Philadelphia Eagles 5-2
Arizona Cardinals 5-2
Minnesota Vikings 4-2
Green Bay Packers 4-2
Dallas Cowboys 3-3
New York Giants 3-3
Carolina Panthers 2-5
Atlanta Falcons 1-5
Chicago Bears 1-5
San Francisco 49ers 1-5
Seattle Seahawks 1-5
Washington Redskins 1-6
St. Louis Rams 1-6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0-6
Detroit Lions 0-7
AFC
Indianapolis Colts 6-0
San Diego Chargers 6-1
Cincinnati Bengals 4-2
New York Jets 4-3
Denver Broncos 4-3
Houston Texans 3-3
Miami Dolphins 3-4
Buffalo Bills 3-4
Baltimore Ravens 2-4
Jacksonville Jaguars 2-4
Oakland Raiders 2-4
Kansas City Chiefs 2-4
Pittsburgh Steelers 2-5
Tennessee Titans 2-5
New England Patriots 1-5
Cleveland Browns 1-6
Stats of the Week
1. Miami and New England both won on Sunday despite being -3 in turnovers. The last 2 teams to win with a -3 turnover differential were San Francisco and Atlanta in week 16 & 17 of 2008, both against the Rams.
2. 500 yards of offense in a loss is both rare and difficult to accomplish. Check out this list of underachievers:
New York Giants v. Philadelphia Week 14, 2009 (512)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Week 11, 2009 (516)
Denver Broncos v. Buffalo Week 16, 2008 (532)
New Orleans Saints v. Atlanta Week 10, 2008 (521)
New Orleans Saints v. Denver Week 3, 2008 (502)
Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Week 17, 2007 (501)*
Arizona Cardinals v San Francisco Week 12, 2007 (552)
Cincinnati Bengals v Cleveland Week 3, 2007 (531)
*Seattle rested their starters in this game and Seneca Wallace played extensively.
Will need to look at this further, but this might be a trend. I’ll definitely be looking at Pittsburgh and NY Giants over win total next season.
3. The Lions are allowing a league worst 31.2 points/game on the year. The only two teams they’ve held under 20 are the Redskins and Rams (both at home). Detroit is 3-9-1 against the spread this season.
4. Rushing Yards – 2009
1. Chris Johnson · TEN 1626
2. Steven Jackson · STL 1279
3. Adrian Peterson · MIN 1200
4. Thomas Jones · NYJ 1167
5. Maurice Jones-Drew · JAX 1136
5. The Arizona Cardinals cannot turn the ball over and win. Under Ken Whisenhunt, the Cardinals are 20-1 with a positive turnover margin and 2-17 when it’s negative. It’s not new that teams that turn the ball over tend to lose, but the Cardinals are an extreme example.
6. The Jacksonville Jaguars have averaged 15.3 points/game in their last 9 outings. The Redskins are going the other way, having averaged 24.2 in their last 5.
7. New Orleans QB Drew Brees leads the NFL with a 112.3 passer rating this season which would be the 5th highest all-time. The Saints have scored at least 24 points in every game this season.
8. The San Diego Super Chargers are the only team besides the Saints to score at least 20 points in every game this season. Their offense is possibly the most consistent in the league. The Chargers also have a total of 13 turnovers on the season and had only one game with under 300 yards of offense. Their win on Sunday was their 8th in a row.
9. The Chicago Bears are last in the NFL in rushing.
10. The Green Bay Packers defense currently ranks 2nd in the NFL behind the Jets.
Early Leans
Minnesota @ Carolina +9
New England @ Buffalo +7
NY Giants @ Washington +3
Bungles @ San Diego -7
No Jets line yet, but 7 or less would be appealing at home to Atlanta.
