Category: NFL
Thoughts
1) I do not have long term betting experience with soccer, but regardless, this week is the first time I have ever seen a soccer total goals scored line of 3.5. And it seems pretty deserved with Chelsea v Stoke City. This could honestly be Chelsea v X, Drogba looks flat out dominant at the moment. He did not even put a goal in last week (three assists) and they still scored six goals.
2) I have made two NFL bets with Louis. I like one and am anxious about the other. They are…
* Raiders win total (over 6 games) – This is actually the bet I like which should tell you something about the other bet we will talk about in a second. The Raiders have not won 6 games in ages but I like their coach, their defense and that J Russell is no longer on board. In my mind I win this bet 1/3 of the time and push it 45-50%. But the next bet…
* Chiefs to win the division (10:1) – I am The House in this bet and I flat out do not like it. The only things I hear about in this division are how many players on the Chargers are either hurt or holding out. And if they do not dominate this group, I am in trouble, because there is a whole lot of generic nothing after them in the AFC West. I figure I win this bet 80% of the time, which means I am getting a poor deal at 10:1. Week 1 will be a HUGE indicator of how this bet will go as KC opens at home against the Chargers.
3) There are three MLB future “to win World Series” bets that I like the value of. They are…
* Red Sox 25-1
* White Sox 28-1
* Giants 20-1
Friday Links
Michael Vick is back in the news this week. From Mark Bradley of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution:
I was encouraged to hear that Michael Vick, in advance of his reality show that debuts Tuesday on BET , is saying he led “a double life,” and I use the word “encouraged” advisedly. Because you don’t know how many times I’ve asked myself and asked people who worked inside the building at 4400 Falcon Parkway if I/they had any hint — any hint — of what was to come.
And I did not. Which might make me the world’s worst reporter, except that I’ve not yet found anyone within the compound who saw it coming, either.
I know, I know. People on the outside will harrumph and say they knew it all along because he wore his hair in corn rows and dressed in a manner different from, say, Peyton Manning. But I grew up in the ’60s and have had some fairly extravagant hairdos myself, and I attended my high school graduation wearing platform shoes with four-inch heels. Me, I stopped judging on appearances long ago.
And even if you believed Vick mightn’t have been a model citizen, you knew this … how? Before the Ron Mexico civil action was filed in 2005, there wasn’t a hint of misdoings, and he’d been a Falcon since April 2001. In hindsight, the weird part wasn’t that we “knew all about” the most famous person in Atlanta but that we knew, as in really knowing, hardly anything.
That’s why I’m intrigued by “The Michael Vick Project”, and what it might reveal. I thought I knew him. Turns out I only knew what I was allowed to see. I’m intrigued to see how he kept his lives compartmentalized. I’m intrigued, as the spies in John le Carre’s fictional Circus would say, by the tradecraft.
Vick in an Atlanta radio interview this week said the following:
On whether or not people ever saw the best that he could’ve been:
“No. Not at all. I think if I woulda applied myself, there was a lot more I could have done off the field and also in the film room that could have elevated my game to a totally different level. I was complacent at the time, somewhat lazy, and I kinda settled for mediocrity. I thought what I was doing was enough. I thought that would suffice and I didn’t have to do anything else. I thought as my career went on I would continue to play at a high level. Everything that I was doing off the field, in regards to the marijuana and everything else, it didn’t slow me down, but it definitely slowed my developmental process because it made me lazy in a sense and I wasn’t really focused and didn’t take things seriously. Now, I want to make the most out of the next couple of years out of my career. I want to play my best football up until the age of 34 or 35, so that’s my plan. I’m gonna put everything into it. Put my all into it.”
On the fact that he still had success even when he didn’t dedicate himself completely:
“Just imagine what I could’ve been doing if I really would have been applying myself. That’s a regret that I have. I’m just glad that I have an opportunity to make amends for what I didn’t do and try to recap that. That’s what I wanted to show in my documentary because people didn’t know that. I wanted a clean slate, I wanted to put all of that out there so that once this documentary aired and the series is over, then I can move on with my life and I don’t have to answer a lot of questions. I can just answer them through my actions.”
Judging by the above paragraphs only, it sounds like he’s growing up.
Why Germany will win the upcoming World Cup.
Did Avatar mercilessly steal from Pocahontas?
Lastly, Lamar Odom entertainingly pimping Powerbars. Or something.
2011 Super Bowl Odds
These were posted by Bodog this morning. Make of that what you will.
Team Odds
Indianapolis 6.5
San Diego 8
New England 10
New Orleans 10
Pittsburgh 11
Dallas 12
Green Bay 12
Minnesota 12
Philadelphia 16
Baltimore 20
NY Giants 20
NY Jets 25
Tennessee 25
Atlanta 30
Cincinnati 30
Arizona 35
Chicago 35
Houston 35
Carolina 40
Miami 45
San Francisco 45
Seattle 45
Denver 50
Jacksonville 50
Washington 50
Buffalo 100
Cleveland 100
Detroit 100
Kansas City 100
Oakland 100
St. Louis 100
Tampa Bay 100
Defending champions at 10:1??? Atlanta at 30 is also appealing. It’s really tempting to take the top 8 NFC teams, banking on the fact that one of them should make the Super Bowl and then hedge the moneyline on an AFC team a year from now. Probably not worth the effort considering you’d have to tie up your money with Bodog of all places for a year, but it’s something to think about.
Saints at 10:1 still doesn’t feel right, though maybe I’m just biased based on the last few seasons.
Comment away, especially if I’m missing something.
EDIT: Lombardi makes an excellent point this morning I overlooked yesterday in that teams in the last 8 of the playoffs (IND, SD, NO, DAL, MIN, BAL, NYJ, ARI) cannot make significant free agent additions unless replacing a departing player.
If you leave out those 8 teams, the top plays would seem to be NE, PIT, GB & ATL. Still awfully hard to tie up any significant $ on something a year away without a good feel for an outcome.
Super Bowl Propping
Apologies for the lack of posting this week. Real life + being sick = light blogging. I’ll attempt to make up for it here by hopefully passing along some of the more appealing prop bets available from the literally hundreds available.
Other sites have much more detailed analysis here and here. If you are participating in a square and want/need to calculate your odds of winning, that link is here.
Dallas Clark over 68 yards receiving (-110)
This is a really high number for a tight end, but Dallas Clark is more of a hybrid slot receiver than even Antonio Gates or Jason Witten, so this number is probably very close to the true line. This is a high variance play, but I think Clark will see single coverage all day and will likely be the recipient of many checkdowns thanks to the Saints blitzing. Another similar play is Joseph Addai over 2.5 receptions or over 18.5 receiving yards.
Total Penalties
If anyone can find a prop bet on this, please let me know. The Colts and Saints are two of the least penalized teams in the league and referee Scott green, to my complete and total joy almost never calls roughing the passer. He’s thrown only seven flags for roughing the passer over the past three seasons, including zero during the entire 2008 season. Many of the roughing the passer penalties are simply things that happen in a game called “football” and it’s fantastic that a referee that subscribes to this belief will be in charge of the game.
Highest Rated Commercial Anheuser-Busch +200
These odds have been heavily slashed from the +900!!!! opening, but there’s still value here.
I think there is tremendous value in Anheuser-Busch and Doritos at Bookmaker here, and it goes beyond just comparing their odds to Bodog’s. Busch won ten years in a row before Doritos broke their impressive streak last year. Even in defeat, Busch showed very strong, with their ads placing both second and third. In 2008 Busch placed first, fifth, and sixth, with Doritos coming in fourth. And in 2007 the two companies dominated the standings, monopolizing the top seven spots. Even at +900, Busch actually has the shortest odds of any of Bookmaker’s 35 options; it’s like BM was aware that they should be the favorite, but had no idea just how dominant they’ve been.
As for this year’s game, the Clydesdales won’t be appearing, but Busch has purchased five minutes worth of ads, and their non-Clydesdale commercials have scored well in the past. Doritos is running a similar contest to the one that landed them the top spot last year; they’ll have three commercials during the game.
Likely more degeneracy to follow between now and kickoff.
Rick J
I have been trying to find gambling blogs kind of like this one but I am not having too much success. With that said, I came across this guy.
http://rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com/
He is by no means funny but he seems to have a pretty good record and know what the hell he’s talking about so check him out. Rick seems to include some wall street stuff on a stock or two that he likes so watch out for that. Please leave a comment if you find a blog about sports gambling that has some humor to it. No poker blogs please.
Thursday Links
“To all the people watching, I can never thank you enough for your kindness to me and I’ll think about it for the rest of my life. All I ask of you is one thing: please don’t be cynical. I hate cynicism- it’s my least favorite quality and it doesn’t lead anywhere.
Nobody in life gets exactly what they thought they were going to get. But if you work really hard and you’re kind, amazing things will happen.” – Conan O’Brien saying goodbye from the Tonight Show
The Football Outsiders guys wrote up their worst of 2009 team. If you enjoy snide comments at the expense of pro athletes, this column is for you.
So, Sabby Piscitelli. It’s kind of a fun name, in that juvenile, vaguely dirty way some Italian names are. His house was burglarized during the win against Green Bay this year, and burglary is wrong and illegal, so he has my sympathies. I hope he was covered by insurance. If you do an Internet search on him, he’s apparently somewhat of a favorite of the ladies. They had an easy time finding him this year; all they had to do was look at who was supposed to be there when Tampa Bay gave up a long touchdown pass.
For those more herbally inclined, there’s Blaze of glory: Marijuana’s greatest moments in sports.
Bill Simmons did a post-show podcast on Jersey Shore this week. His initial podcast on the show is here.
Lastly, some Sportscenter fueled entertainment.
Playoff Picks Final
Allen took Indy and Minnesota to clinch the picks contest last week. Pat had the Jets and Saints.
Playoff Picks Contest Week 3
From Pinnacle
NY Jets @ Indianapolis -7.5
Minnesota @ New Orleans -3.5
Standings are a few posts down. Email your picks by 3pm Sunday and I’ll post an update Sunday night/Monday morning.
Thursday Links
Lots of inspiration this week…
Follow-ups and excerpts from the Marvin Harrison story.
Jason Fagone also wrote an awesome story on Tim Tebow a few months back.
All these humanizing details tend to take the edge off the fact that Tebow’s entire role-model persona doesn’t work unless he can convey that, fundamentally, he’s better than you: stronger, more capable, more at peace, just basically happier. This is what the people who make fun of Tebow are skewering—his cult of personality. When Obama invited the Gators to the White House earlier this year, the sports blog Deadspin ran a picture of Tebow’s “steely-eyed Manshake” with the president under the cheeky headline our two greatest leaders make a pact to save the world.
But in Gainesville, in close quarters with 52,000 other students, where there’s already a statue of him, seven feet tall, carved from an oak tree—”Tim Treebow”—he’s universally adored. I try to find people to talk shit about him. I fail.
Ichiro! did an extensive interview last week and among other things talked about negativity and not getting fat. He’s probably my favorite active player and it’s not solely because he carries his bats in a briefcase.
A lot of people for a long time have thought that you can’t do this forever. A lot of people were thinking by now Ichiro would be a three hitter, he would be hitting 40 homeruns a year, but you can still do everything you did before. Are you in any way surprised that you are still doing these things and what is your reaction when people say Ichiro is going to move on and become this?
Probably for my style of baseball the key to maintaining it is not to get a gut.
As far as what other people say… The thing is a lot of people who comment about other people, especially people who say negative things about other people, they are not really in positions to be able to evaluate other people in the first place. If we input that information into ourselves more than necessary only negative things will come of that. So it is really about knowing yourself and not being controlled by people who have no value or say. I guess now that we have talked about this I guess you can say that is one key to where I am now is that I have not been swayed by what other people have said.
If you could trade places with anybody in the history of the game for one day who would you like to trade with and why?
(Becomes very animated)
There’s not really a certain who that comes to mind but I think I would like to become a really fat player. (Raucous laughter) Maybe not necessarily fat, but a really, really big player and the reason for that is when I see really, really big players able to perform in baseball I always think to myself how are they able to do that? Because I think to be able to be a good baseball player you have to be able to control your body and for them to have really big bodies and to perform well in this very difficult game of baseball, I am very curious.
Some other people say, ‘You are so small, how come you are able to perform on the baseball field?’ but to me it is only natural because with me I am able to control my movements and my body. For me it is the opposite. Big guys? How are you able to do it? That is a big mystery. (much laughter)
The first half of this Chargers mailbag reads like someone made it up. Actual answer to one of the questions, “I’m going to assume you’re joking. I can’t tell anymore with some of y’all.” Some highlights out of context:
There is a rumor floating around that several Chargers were “partying” .. Saturday night and well into Sunday morning before the game. Can any of this be confirmed?
Regarding Marty, I thought he was just plain stupid. Push come to shove, I take Norv…but I wish he was our offensive coordinator. That is his destiny in life, and that’s ok.
…and Kaeding???The boy can’t seem to handle pressure in the play-offs,that scares me going forward because he’s so darn good in the regular season,how do you justify a switch?I can’t think of a good question,because honestly,I think we’re as good as any team out there,I’m just confused as heck by yesterdays game,GO BOLTS…ALL THE WAY IN ’10…God,I hate baseball season….
I’ll skip this excerpt on this one, but Joe P. telling stories about Buck O’Neil = awesome.
Some NBA action…
Good Josh Smith
And bad Josh Smith (more accurately, why is Jeff Green not in the dunk contest?)
Lastly, here’s a collection of Jack Nicholson enjoying the Lakers this season.
