Category: NFL
Current Bets
I went to the site today because I thought Allen had said that he had posted about a big 4 or 5 team teaser he had and hit last week, and I was going to rank on him for backposting on kooky bets he places that actually hit. How often do you see someone making a backpost about a 6 teamer where they went 3-3? But 6-0! I am a genius, where is my keyboard! The world must know! But Allen didn’t make that post, so to make up for it, I’m going to do some backposting myself. Here are some current bets I have going right now…
Heat – No best reg record or no win championship (300)
The only people that actually read this site know this story already but I originally had a 100 dollar bet on this with JaPan. Straight up, he wins if the Heat finish with best overall and win the Championship. After Game 1 where the Heat got smoked by the Celtics I offered him to settle for 75 on the spot and yada, yada, yada, we now have 300 dollars on the line. I would probably be posting this even if the Heat weren’t struggling, but the fact they lost to Indiana last night at home is the ultimate typing catalyst. Don’t want to jinx this but this looks promising to say the least.
Jets (or Bills) to win AFC East vs Patriots (40)
Another Japan bet. The bet was made either directly after the first Jets/Pats or after the Jets/Broncos, I’m pretty sure it was the former. Needless to say booze has made the issue murky. At this point you have to give the Patriots the odds on this due to the schedule and that the Jets go to Foxboro two Monday nights from now. I like JaPan’s chances. As a side not I insisted that I get the Bills also in the bet.
Over/Under Season Win Total Bets – Pub Crawl
In case you were wondering about the baseball O/U pub crawl bet this year I smoked Lou Lou. This one looks promising for Louis but it’s close. I’ll edit this section when I have the numbers in front of me.
Chicago Bears to Win One Game for Remainder of Season
This is not an actual bet at the moment but one Lou Lou proposed Sunday night. He posed the question, what are the chances that the Bears do not win another game the rest of the season? Looking at the schedule, the Bears from here in will be an underdog in most games with a couple of essential coin-flips thrown in. Louis originally wanted 10-1 odds, which I accepted. Weary that I accepted so quickly he then graciously and generously offered himself something like 18-1. Currently we are in a stalemate, I’ll lay 12-1 but Lou Lou is holding out for 15-1. I think this one is going to die on the table. The only hope of action is that this is a bet that has to be made in a non-internet setting since the line doesn’t exist in real life. We’ll see.
The marathon continues…
Too soon. I should’ve listened to the Tribe’s coach when he said that it would be January before they hit their stride. Hindsight is 20/20. Have no fear, as the marathon continues there will be plenty of opportunities to get back in the game…starting now.
I woke up to see Northeastern v S. Illinois on the schedule for 10am. I thought, “Didn’t Northeastern put a guard in the NBA from last year?” Sure enough, they did. It will have to take a while to fill that void in a program that isn’t traditionally known for being a powerhouse. It’s also a put up or shut up year for head coach Chris Lowery of the Salukis. No better time to start than with a comfortable home victory. The Pick: Salukis -5.5
Why not tease it with Baylor? OK, I will. Salukis -1.5, Baylor -11.5.
Thoughts
1) I do not have long term betting experience with soccer, but regardless, this week is the first time I have ever seen a soccer total goals scored line of 3.5. And it seems pretty deserved with Chelsea v Stoke City. This could honestly be Chelsea v X, Drogba looks flat out dominant at the moment. He did not even put a goal in last week (three assists) and they still scored six goals.
2) I have made two NFL bets with Louis. I like one and am anxious about the other. They are…
* Raiders win total (over 6 games) – This is actually the bet I like which should tell you something about the other bet we will talk about in a second. The Raiders have not won 6 games in ages but I like their coach, their defense and that J Russell is no longer on board. In my mind I win this bet 1/3 of the time and push it 45-50%. But the next bet…
* Chiefs to win the division (10:1) – I am The House in this bet and I flat out do not like it. The only things I hear about in this division are how many players on the Chargers are either hurt or holding out. And if they do not dominate this group, I am in trouble, because there is a whole lot of generic nothing after them in the AFC West. I figure I win this bet 80% of the time, which means I am getting a poor deal at 10:1. Week 1 will be a HUGE indicator of how this bet will go as KC opens at home against the Chargers.
3) There are three MLB future “to win World Series” bets that I like the value of. They are…
* Red Sox 25-1
* White Sox 28-1
* Giants 20-1
Friday Links
Michael Vick is back in the news this week. From Mark Bradley of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution:
I was encouraged to hear that Michael Vick, in advance of his reality show that debuts Tuesday on BET , is saying he led “a double life,” and I use the word “encouraged” advisedly. Because you don’t know how many times I’ve asked myself and asked people who worked inside the building at 4400 Falcon Parkway if I/they had any hint — any hint — of what was to come.
And I did not. Which might make me the world’s worst reporter, except that I’ve not yet found anyone within the compound who saw it coming, either.
I know, I know. People on the outside will harrumph and say they knew it all along because he wore his hair in corn rows and dressed in a manner different from, say, Peyton Manning. But I grew up in the ’60s and have had some fairly extravagant hairdos myself, and I attended my high school graduation wearing platform shoes with four-inch heels. Me, I stopped judging on appearances long ago.
And even if you believed Vick mightn’t have been a model citizen, you knew this … how? Before the Ron Mexico civil action was filed in 2005, there wasn’t a hint of misdoings, and he’d been a Falcon since April 2001. In hindsight, the weird part wasn’t that we “knew all about” the most famous person in Atlanta but that we knew, as in really knowing, hardly anything.
That’s why I’m intrigued by “The Michael Vick Project”, and what it might reveal. I thought I knew him. Turns out I only knew what I was allowed to see. I’m intrigued to see how he kept his lives compartmentalized. I’m intrigued, as the spies in John le Carre’s fictional Circus would say, by the tradecraft.
Vick in an Atlanta radio interview this week said the following:
On whether or not people ever saw the best that he could’ve been:
“No. Not at all. I think if I woulda applied myself, there was a lot more I could have done off the field and also in the film room that could have elevated my game to a totally different level. I was complacent at the time, somewhat lazy, and I kinda settled for mediocrity. I thought what I was doing was enough. I thought that would suffice and I didn’t have to do anything else. I thought as my career went on I would continue to play at a high level. Everything that I was doing off the field, in regards to the marijuana and everything else, it didn’t slow me down, but it definitely slowed my developmental process because it made me lazy in a sense and I wasn’t really focused and didn’t take things seriously. Now, I want to make the most out of the next couple of years out of my career. I want to play my best football up until the age of 34 or 35, so that’s my plan. I’m gonna put everything into it. Put my all into it.”
On the fact that he still had success even when he didn’t dedicate himself completely:
“Just imagine what I could’ve been doing if I really would have been applying myself. That’s a regret that I have. I’m just glad that I have an opportunity to make amends for what I didn’t do and try to recap that. That’s what I wanted to show in my documentary because people didn’t know that. I wanted a clean slate, I wanted to put all of that out there so that once this documentary aired and the series is over, then I can move on with my life and I don’t have to answer a lot of questions. I can just answer them through my actions.”
Judging by the above paragraphs only, it sounds like he’s growing up.
Why Germany will win the upcoming World Cup.
Did Avatar mercilessly steal from Pocahontas?
Lastly, Lamar Odom entertainingly pimping Powerbars. Or something.
2011 Super Bowl Odds
These were posted by Bodog this morning. Make of that what you will.
Team Odds
Indianapolis 6.5
San Diego 8
New England 10
New Orleans 10
Pittsburgh 11
Dallas 12
Green Bay 12
Minnesota 12
Philadelphia 16
Baltimore 20
NY Giants 20
NY Jets 25
Tennessee 25
Atlanta 30
Cincinnati 30
Arizona 35
Chicago 35
Houston 35
Carolina 40
Miami 45
San Francisco 45
Seattle 45
Denver 50
Jacksonville 50
Washington 50
Buffalo 100
Cleveland 100
Detroit 100
Kansas City 100
Oakland 100
St. Louis 100
Tampa Bay 100
Defending champions at 10:1??? Atlanta at 30 is also appealing. It’s really tempting to take the top 8 NFC teams, banking on the fact that one of them should make the Super Bowl and then hedge the moneyline on an AFC team a year from now. Probably not worth the effort considering you’d have to tie up your money with Bodog of all places for a year, but it’s something to think about.
Saints at 10:1 still doesn’t feel right, though maybe I’m just biased based on the last few seasons.
Comment away, especially if I’m missing something.
EDIT: Lombardi makes an excellent point this morning I overlooked yesterday in that teams in the last 8 of the playoffs (IND, SD, NO, DAL, MIN, BAL, NYJ, ARI) cannot make significant free agent additions unless replacing a departing player.
If you leave out those 8 teams, the top plays would seem to be NE, PIT, GB & ATL. Still awfully hard to tie up any significant $ on something a year away without a good feel for an outcome.
Super Bowl Propping
Apologies for the lack of posting this week. Real life + being sick = light blogging. I’ll attempt to make up for it here by hopefully passing along some of the more appealing prop bets available from the literally hundreds available.
Other sites have much more detailed analysis here and here. If you are participating in a square and want/need to calculate your odds of winning, that link is here.
Dallas Clark over 68 yards receiving (-110)
This is a really high number for a tight end, but Dallas Clark is more of a hybrid slot receiver than even Antonio Gates or Jason Witten, so this number is probably very close to the true line. This is a high variance play, but I think Clark will see single coverage all day and will likely be the recipient of many checkdowns thanks to the Saints blitzing. Another similar play is Joseph Addai over 2.5 receptions or over 18.5 receiving yards.
Total Penalties
If anyone can find a prop bet on this, please let me know. The Colts and Saints are two of the least penalized teams in the league and referee Scott green, to my complete and total joy almost never calls roughing the passer. He’s thrown only seven flags for roughing the passer over the past three seasons, including zero during the entire 2008 season. Many of the roughing the passer penalties are simply things that happen in a game called “football” and it’s fantastic that a referee that subscribes to this belief will be in charge of the game.
Highest Rated Commercial Anheuser-Busch +200
These odds have been heavily slashed from the +900!!!! opening, but there’s still value here.
I think there is tremendous value in Anheuser-Busch and Doritos at Bookmaker here, and it goes beyond just comparing their odds to Bodog’s. Busch won ten years in a row before Doritos broke their impressive streak last year. Even in defeat, Busch showed very strong, with their ads placing both second and third. In 2008 Busch placed first, fifth, and sixth, with Doritos coming in fourth. And in 2007 the two companies dominated the standings, monopolizing the top seven spots. Even at +900, Busch actually has the shortest odds of any of Bookmaker’s 35 options; it’s like BM was aware that they should be the favorite, but had no idea just how dominant they’ve been.
As for this year’s game, the Clydesdales won’t be appearing, but Busch has purchased five minutes worth of ads, and their non-Clydesdale commercials have scored well in the past. Doritos is running a similar contest to the one that landed them the top spot last year; they’ll have three commercials during the game.
Likely more degeneracy to follow between now and kickoff.
Rick J
I have been trying to find gambling blogs kind of like this one but I am not having too much success. With that said, I came across this guy.
http://rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com/
He is by no means funny but he seems to have a pretty good record and know what the hell he’s talking about so check him out. Rick seems to include some wall street stuff on a stock or two that he likes so watch out for that. Please leave a comment if you find a blog about sports gambling that has some humor to it. No poker blogs please.
Thursday Links
“To all the people watching, I can never thank you enough for your kindness to me and I’ll think about it for the rest of my life. All I ask of you is one thing: please don’t be cynical. I hate cynicism- it’s my least favorite quality and it doesn’t lead anywhere.
Nobody in life gets exactly what they thought they were going to get. But if you work really hard and you’re kind, amazing things will happen.” – Conan O’Brien saying goodbye from the Tonight Show
The Football Outsiders guys wrote up their worst of 2009 team. If you enjoy snide comments at the expense of pro athletes, this column is for you.
So, Sabby Piscitelli. It’s kind of a fun name, in that juvenile, vaguely dirty way some Italian names are. His house was burglarized during the win against Green Bay this year, and burglary is wrong and illegal, so he has my sympathies. I hope he was covered by insurance. If you do an Internet search on him, he’s apparently somewhat of a favorite of the ladies. They had an easy time finding him this year; all they had to do was look at who was supposed to be there when Tampa Bay gave up a long touchdown pass.
For those more herbally inclined, there’s Blaze of glory: Marijuana’s greatest moments in sports.
Bill Simmons did a post-show podcast on Jersey Shore this week. His initial podcast on the show is here.
Lastly, some Sportscenter fueled entertainment.
Playoff Picks Final
Allen took Indy and Minnesota to clinch the picks contest last week. Pat had the Jets and Saints.
Playoff Picks Contest Week 3
From Pinnacle
NY Jets @ Indianapolis -7.5
Minnesota @ New Orleans -3.5
Standings are a few posts down. Email your picks by 3pm Sunday and I’ll post an update Sunday night/Monday morning.
