Category: NFL
NFL Week 6
2-2 for me for a slight loss on college football yesterday. I watched zero games again putting me on a total of zero games watched for the season. 3-4 -1.42 on the season.
Nothing doing for me in early NFL plays, though I did see fit to throw out a seven team teaser thanks to some discrepancies between the Bookmaker & Pinnacle lines:
KC -1.5
BAL + 8.5
CLE +8.5
CAR +8.5
HOU -1.5
PIT +7.5
NO +8.5
I’d love to bet on Tennessee today, but the line is down to 12 or worse. Lots of line moves this week, s hopefully everyone else was able to get on some teams at the price they wanted. Hopefully I’ll get in a play (New England) on the late games. I had Washington marked down all week, but it’s in the top 5 of the Hilton contest and so it’s excluded as an option for me. Hilton top 5 picks are something like 6-18 on the season.
If I only had a time machine….
The line of the week for Week 6 is the Denver Broncos -27 line versus Jacksonville (once -28). It’s the biggest line on record, and quite possibly one of the funniest things I have ever seen on a Monday morning. It is the highest since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970.
Will the Jags cover, even if Henne plays? Since 2003, dogs of 20+ have gone 4-0 ATS (and those 4 four times the favorites have been the NE Patriots). The Patriots have been a nightmare for sports books in the modern era; sportsbooks couldn’t stop losing because everyone was on them early in 2007 and 2011 when they were destroying everybody (and covering). Then once they didn’t cover, all the money kept coming in against them (and the Pats either won close, or lost those games). As one sports bookie put it: “There was nothing we could do.”
Historically, according to The Gold Sheet (sports-betting publication that has been tracking point spreads since the 1950s), the line of minus 28 ties the highest spread of all time, set by the Baltimore Colts over the expansion Atlanta Falcons in 1966. The Falcons, of course, covered. In 1976, expansion Tampa (quarterbacked by South Carolina Gamecock’s coach Steve Spurrier) were 26-point dogs to the Pittsburgh Steelers…..and promptly lost 42-0
I’m almost tempted to take the Jags because it *is* so many points; you’d also have to think it’s a motivating factor in that locker room to cover the spread (because I am sure even they know they won’t win). Either way, I do like the Over at 53 (-110). Denver’s defense is not that good; I do think the Jags *could* score 17-20 on them (especially when garbage time hits). Denver will probably break the season’s total points scored and average per game record, and put up at least another 35-41 here.
Seattle -14 (EVEN) v TEN
Ryan “My mom has met Pat Darts” Fitzpatrick on the road against the best home team, and defense, in football? Yes plz.
Teaser: CIN (-7 vs Buffalo) + SF (-11 vs ARI) + SEA (-14 vs TEN) at +165
Probably also take Cincy on the road at the -7 as well. I mean, the defense hasn’t allowed a 300 yard passer in 18 straight games…which in this era, is pretty fucking good. I am not a huge fan of Andy Dalton, but I am a huge fan of betting against practice squad QBs (like Thaddus Lewis).
Washington R.G. Threes (+6, -120) vs Dallas
I get to do one of my favorite past times: betting against the Cowboys. These 2 teams always play close games.
CFL Bonus pick: Saskatchewan Roughriders (-9.5, EVEN) vs Edmonton
Saskatchewan comes home from a two game road trip at 12-3. They are considered the best defense in the CFL. Edmonton’s team nickname is the “Eskimos”. And we are gambling!
When to Bet your House on an NFL Game
I stayed up to watch a thoroughly enjoyable Chargers game on East Coast Time last night and couldn’t help myself pre-game, dumping a whole lot more units on Oakland +6. It wasn’t quite a bet the house game, something that happens roughly once a season, but had I thought about it some more it probably would have qualified. When I say bet the house, I mean that on occasion, there comes a game or series where it makes sense to bet a disproportional amount on a side. Usually this becomes extremely obvious in hindsight. Here is the NFL Criteria:
1) The Public is on the other team
This is Gambling Rule #1 and should be posted at the top of this site. I’ve had to stop betting soccer because I can no longer find public data for these games anywhere, but it’s readily available for all major American sports. The Public was 80% on San Diego last night. and I’d say the cutoff for these games is roughly 75%.
2) The team in question is at home, preferably someplace with a sizable advantage
Betting on home teams is rule #2 of this site. The statement above normally meant Seattle before they became legitimately good, or midwestern teams in the cold but some dome games count too. Night games are great, especially when it’s a team that isn’t on TV much because they aren’t very good. Playoff games count too. A legitimate night game in Oakland definitely qualifies.
3) The opponent is “Fragile”
I can’t think of a better word here, but we’re talking about the type of teams that tend to self-destruct at critical moments, especially on the road. Examples: Dallas, San Diego, Jets, Chicago with Sexy Rexy. Turnover prone QBs paired with mediocre or worse coaches really are the key here.
4) The team in question is getting points
It’s no fun to bet the house, get the game correct and be sweating a miracle cover. Better to take the points, put some more on the Money Line and enjoy the festivities.
Below is a non-comprehensive list of previous Bet the House games. I did not in fact bet my house on any of these, nor did I even get significant money down on all of them. I essentially pushed on the Cardinals game because I had so much on the ML, and the Packers/Chargers affair I had action that was split amongst several people. Last night I got in a solid couple of plays, but nothing as high as the two Seattle games. Betting on Seattle was much more fun when they weren’t as good, but at least now we get to go against them on the road.
The point of getting these gathered in one place is to be able to try and identify the pattern listed above a little more clearly the next time it arises.
Chicago Bears 24 (-13) at Arizona Cardinals 23
San Diego Chargers 24 (-5.5) at Green Bay Packers 31
Dallas Cowboys 25 (-11)at Buffalo Bills 24
New York Giants 17 vs. New England Patriots 14 (-12.5)
New York Jets 3 (-3.5) at Seattle Seahawks 13
Pittsburgh Steelers 6 (-10) at Cleveland Browns 13
New Orleans Saints 36 (-10) at Seattle Seahawks 41
This is the Marshawn Lynch Game where the Seahawks, who won their division at 7-9 got to host the 11-5 Saints.
San Diego Chargers 17 (-6) at Oakland Raiders 27
NFL Sunday
I’m just waking up but have plenty of time to get in my one play this week, Chargers @ Oakland +4.5. A night game for Raiders fans and Philip Rivers on the road and I still get points? That’s because the Raiders are terrible, but I’ll take them this week anyway.
2-0 in college yesterday so I’m 3-4 on the season there for -1.22.
Wonderful time of year
With hockey back in gear, baseball playoffs, and football abound…..wonderful time of year for gamblers and sports aficionados alike!
Interesting spotted trend early in hockey by poker’s Daniel Negreanu:
Expect more goals in the NHL this year since the rule change to goalie pad sizes. All the games last night went OVER. #goodforthegame
— Daniel Negreanu (@RealKidPoker) October 2, 2013
That being said, 65% of the overs so far have hit in hockey. Might be a trend we hop on with, and we’ll start tonight with Ottawa v Toronto over 5.5.
In baseball, I like S.Gray of the A’s getting +115 vs Justin Verlander, at home tonight in Game 2 of the ALDS. A’s lost last night, need a win, Verlander has struggled a bit this year (on my fantasy team #blah), Cabrera is playing on one leg, and I just think this series goes 5 overall.
In NFL:
Miami -3 (+105) v BAL
Baltimore’s offense is struggling, especially on the road. Miami is coming off a loss, healthy, and we are getting odds. And we’re gambling….
Teaser: Green Bay (-7) and Over (54) v DET
Two high powered offenses, RB Eddie Lacy is back, Rodgers at home, and I get to bet against Stafford on the road (at home he is fantastic). Tease em both down 6 points and rake in the dough.
PHI v NY Giants Over 53
These defenses stink
San Diego -5 (Even) at OAK
Oakland’s offensive line stinks, Matt Flynn is now the #3 QB behind some guy named McGloin, McFadden AND Marcel Reese are out. Add that this is a hedge against our SD under bet (which could be in jeopardy if Rivers keeps playing well)….and we’re gambling! Game is also at 11:35 ET thanks to the Oakland A’s playoffs.
JAX at St Louis (tie)
I wish I could bet this as a tie. No one wins even watching this game, never mind playing in it.
Your miracle cover of the week goes to OSU (-6.5) vs Northwestern:
Rebound
Had a great week 2, shitty week 3 (only saved by teasing Denver to -10 and the Over to 44 on MNF……the Raiders would “Miracle Push” the actual line with 1:50 in the 4th with a McFadden TD).
The thing about gambling problems is…..it’s not a problem if you win. And you can’t win if you don’t play!
SF -4 and Under 43 (The Rams are 5-1-1 vs the NFC West since the start of last season but 2-7-1 in their last 10 games vs the 49ers. Thursday night games have been sluggish, averaging 40 pts per game total by an avg margin of 11.5 points).
Mike Pierira tweeting from his basement agrees with us:
No clear favorite based on your responses. I think the Niners go to the run game for four quarters and win in a low scoring game.
— Mike Pereira (@MikePereira) September 27, 2013
IND – 9 @ JAX (Jacksonville sucks) also going to tease with Denver (-11 vs Philly)
CLE +4.5 v CIN (This game is always historically close, I’m hedging with my Cincy season AFC Central Champs bet, and I think we could have some Hoyer Magic in the works!)
And now I leave you with this important public service announcement tweet from Michael Irvin:
All you men over 40. GO LET THAT DR STICK HIS FINGER UP UR BUTT……PROSTATE CANCER KILLS. WAS DIFFICULT BUT I HAD TO. So do you! Good Luck
— Michael Irvin (@michaelirvin88) September 25, 2013
Steak n’ Cheese
Andy Reid is back in Philly tonight, after coaching there for 13+ seasons, as the HC of the KC Chiefs. The Chiefs are of to their first 2-0 start since 2010, and are currently the best red zone team in the league (5-for-5, all TDs) and the only one left without a turnover. Their defense isn’t half bad either (as long as the super duper safety Eric Berry stays healthy).
We also have the Eagles Over trend which I’ve hit the last two weeks. Between them running 85-90 plays a game, and their atrocious defense (they and the Chargers last week put on a “How NOT to tackle” clinic), this lines up to be another night to take the over straight up, yes?
I say no. I will say, despite me betting against the Chargers this year, Mike McCoy runs a great gameplan (once he gets his guys in there, this team will do better….but in a year or two). The Chargers possessed the ball last week for more than 3/5ths of the game; this, IMO, is how you have to beat the Eagles’ attack….possess the ball and give your defense some rest (the Chargers are so bad on defense it didn’t matter anyways as our over hit, but KC defense is better than SD). You know a motivated Reid knows the blueprint (and the horses to do so with RB Jamal Charles). Also, playing a short week this week….and from experience……these games tend to be AWFUL football. The players are tired, the coaches don’t have enough time to prepare, all while the NFL laughs all the way to the bank. Too bad we are such degenerate gamblers in this country, we can’t help but still not watch (and still bet the over in some capacity).
That’s why I like the tease here: KC to +9.5 and and Over to 44 (-110). These teams play close games, and someone winning 24-20 is a definite possibility (bets saved are bets earned). I just hope Vick doesn’t get hurt (but he probably will).
New York Giants +1 (at Carolina, -105)
Giants need a win after going 0-2, and despite their crappy defensive play and Eli turning it over like a omelet, they’ve averaged scoring 27.5 pts/game. Carolina has lost two gut wrenching games, their offense can’t score TDs, and they make dumb penalties at the worst times……thanks to their shitty coach Ron Rivera (who gets fired first, him or Schiano?). Coughlin will get these guys motivated to win. We’ll take the points (and its now to a pick’em).
Vikings -7 (+105)
Vikings are also desperate at 0-2 in their home opener, losing two close games in their early weeks. The Browns just traded away their best player (RB Trent Richardson) to the Colts for a 1st round pick next year (GREAT trade for Browns, IMO…..and they might also go 0-16 and get the 1st round pick! The bang-bang!*), Ohio native and MSU alum Brian Hoyer (former backup for the Pats) is starting at QB, and the Browns signed 40 year old Willis McGahee (I picked him up in all of my leagues, I admit it). We’re getting juice, although the QB we are betting on isn’t that much better……but Ponder’s Home/Road splits are night and day. And the Vikings have AP. We’ll give the points and #andwearegambling
*Cleveland plays the Jaguars on December 1st, and it could be the first time we had an negative undefeated (a positive way to say, “no wins”) toilet bowl this deep into a season since the 0-9 Patriots played the 0-8 Colts in 1990. I’m giddy at the thought of this being a pick’em.
Lions/Washington R.G. Threes Over (whatever it is)
It’s off the board because Bush is (probably) not going to play, but Joique Bell has been a “steady” RB sleeper in fantasy as he’d played in nearly half the snaps in the games as the backup (also picks up the blitz better. That equals playing time). These teams can both move the ball, make big plays as well as give up big plays. Add a motivated Robert Griffin III….. probably the game of the day, here.
I have have the urge to be a huge degen and take the Seahawks -19 vs Jacksonville at home…….but I’ll probably still tease it with something like Denver because I just can’t stop betting. We’ll see how the day goes.
Extra Credit – UFC:
Blaine Gabbert Sucks
Fuckin’ Blaine Gabbert, man…….I have KC/JAX Over (41.5) and JAX gets a quick safety early….we actually get to 23 at halftime…suddenly its 28 to fuckin 2 and that’s how the game ends. KC might not score 28 points the REST OF THE YEAR.
What I missed though……is an opportunity to bet against Blaine Gabbert. I think he sucks. Balls. Between the happy feet and the over hype coming out of college, I knew this guy should of been a guy “who I have to bet against every time he starts.” He would join Dan Orlovsky, Jeff George, and Tim Couch as the other guys who I would always bet against when they started. These men paid my rent, and instead of continuing the tradition with Blaine Gabbert, I’ve put faith in this guy now multiple times (I also bet the Jags at +375 at home last year vs Chicago. I also love betting against Jay Cutler, but the Jags thought it would be a good idea to wear black jerseys in 90 degree heat in September. #facepalm #moneyonfire).
No more. I can’t wait for this guy to get signed by the Jets or some other suckbag team that I can bet furious amounts of money on.
Ironically, he got hurt/benched and now Henne is starting for the Jags. Henne is actually OK and i think 3rd best backup QB in NFL; he has flaws (late on throws), but has a good arm and a good rhythm with Cecil Shorts III (who had 8 TD and 897 yards last year when Henne became starter and Cecil saved my fantasy leagues when I was short at WR depth). The Jags might actually now win 4 games this year, where with Gabbert, they might of only won 2. I am upset because I was going to pull a Pat Darts and bet the Raiders at home this week, but not bet is off as JAX now has a chance to win.
BTW, don’t ask about Danny Amendola or the inept Pats offense if you see me. Every time I see Welker, it’s like seeing an ex-girlfriend with a less attractive (rich) guy with a gimp.
Here are the picks:
GB -7 (-115) vs Washington
The Redskins looked awful defending the run last week, couldn’t hold on to the ball, and only came back when the Eagles took the gas off the pedal (as they usually do) in the 4th quarter. Opener in Lambeau Field, a still-shaky-n-rusty RG III (who I am benching for Schaub in a fantasy league this week), and a pissed off Green Bay team who lost a game they should of had a better chance to win last week because the refs screwed them over again and will probably cost them a home game in the playoffs. Add the karma with their nickname (I now call them, “The Washington R.G. Threes”)……and we’re gambling!
Eagles/Chargers Over 55 (-105)
Until the Eagles’ main players (McCoy, Jackson) get hurt and Mike Vick gets his spleen broken into 99 pieces, you have to keep taking their overs here as they try to run 85-90 plays/game. Add the fact they are playing the Chargers at home, who blew a 28-7 lead on MNF (and Houston, Over bettors like me thank them for it!), I can see this being a game in the 30s (that the Chargers find a way to lose…again #Norvcurse).
Baltimore -7 (EVEN) vs Browns
Home opener, ring ceremony, Ray-Ray in da house, EVEN spread (should be -110)…….and the hapless Browns (way to rub it in, Baltimore Ownership). Add the fact the Browns have lost 12 in a row in Baltimore (and have gone 9-1-1 ATS in those games), with the Ravens are coming off a long week where Manning threw 7 TDs (and they def replayed this on film over and over), they should have the motivation to crush this team.
All of above in Teaser +160
Seahawks -3 (+105)
I essentially think this is a coin flip, and I think getting juice (it should be SEA -3 EVEN) on a home fav (rare) is a steal.
Add the Seahawks’ great fans (and best home field in all of sports) are going to try and break a Guinness World Record this week in crowd noise….and we’re gambling. On a side note for those with a major gambling problem, the fact you have the two best defenses in football, the under at 44 also looks tasty.
I also wanted to put the Falcons in a teaser (-6) with the Texans (-10), but I am done with putting ATL in teasers….it always loses money….. like me on a Friday night at Tattletales (and at least then, I get to see some boobies).
On a side note, with the Mayweather Fight, Texas A&M vs Bama game, EPL Soccer, MLB, and NFL….this weekend could break a volume betting record in a Vegas “Perfect Storm”:
“In all my years, I’ve never seen a schedule that sets up so perfectly for betting,” said Vaccaro, now working for the sportsbook at the South Point casino. “You can’t put together a schedule like this. It just happens, and when it does, it’s definitely good for business. It’s going to be off the charts.”
Anytime could be the most wonderful time of year to gamble!
These Teams Stink
As do my college football picks. 0-3 to start the “season.” No opponents on these as it doesn’t matter and I only have a vague idea as to who the opponents are anyway.
Connecticut +6 +105
South Alabama +8.5 -110
NFL
Dallas @ Kansas City -3 -110
On holiday the next two weeks. No September baseball as you all have obviously noticed. Three sports is too many to keep up with.
Football Stuff
Going over currently open bets, as well as submitting my picks for Over/Under Season Totals. Speaking of which, the Indiana play took a hit last night with a home loss to Navy. Indiana looks to be able to score points with relative ease but they had genuine problems on the defensive side. Hopefully this was more of a case of facing a weird offense (triple option). We shall see. Aside from that, bets I am the house for…
Oakland Raiders Under 5.5 (-229) 150 Units
Oakland Raiders League Worst Record (+225) 30 Units
And bets on my end…
Cincy to win AFC (+1200) 15 Units
I really didn’t think Andy Dalton was going to be good in the pros, but he has progressed to the point for me that I actually forget it’s Andy Dalton who is out there.
5 Point Pick – Browns Over 6
Hear me out. Pitt and Balt seem to be both getting worse these days. Cleveland has a favorable stretch of 3 home games early on where they play Cincy, Buffalo on a very short week, and then have a week and a half before Detroit comes in. Trent hitting his prime.
4 Point Pick – Panthers Under 7
You know how Harbaugh is all about trying to prevent Kapernick from getting hurt? Do you know who you don’t hear being a part of that conversation? Ron Rivera, who is coming across as the equivalent of an absentee father with Newton. If Newton gets injured at any point early, a plausible scenario given the distressing fact that he was Carolina’s leading rusher last year, this Under is a lock. Steve Smith aint getting any younger, their running backs aint getting any healthier.
Side Note, I love how confident I sound when making picks.
3 Point Pick – Packers Under 10.5
In Simmons’ season preview he rightly points out how difficult the Packer away schedule is.
2 Point Pick – Falcons Over 10
I see this as Atlanta signing up for making a run this year. There is no way Gonzalez plays a down in the league after this year. Steve Jax is never going to be as productive moving forward as he will be this year. Good chance the same can be said for Roddy. I do not think they will feel the ripple effect of trading away a chunk of their future for Julio at this point. Once more into the fray while you all still have legs.
1 Point Pick – Patriots Under 11
They have an easy schedule, they play in the easiest division of the easier conference. All they do is win double digit games of every year. But my God did they look awful in the preseason. I put next to no faith, stock, belief in preseason football, except when I want to.
