Category: NFL
When to Bet your House on an NFL Game
I stayed up to watch a thoroughly enjoyable Chargers game on East Coast Time last night and couldn’t help myself pre-game, dumping a whole lot more units on Oakland +6. It wasn’t quite a bet the house game, something that happens roughly once a season, but had I thought about it some more it probably would have qualified. When I say bet the house, I mean that on occasion, there comes a game or series where it makes sense to bet a disproportional amount on a side. Usually this becomes extremely obvious in hindsight. Here is the NFL Criteria:
1) The Public is on the other team
This is Gambling Rule #1 and should be posted at the top of this site. I’ve had to stop betting soccer because I can no longer find public data for these games anywhere, but it’s readily available for all major American sports. The Public was 80% on San Diego last night. and I’d say the cutoff for these games is roughly 75%.
2) The team in question is at home, preferably someplace with a sizable advantage
Betting on home teams is rule #2 of this site. The statement above normally meant Seattle before they became legitimately good, or midwestern teams in the cold but some dome games count too. Night games are great, especially when it’s a team that isn’t on TV much because they aren’t very good. Playoff games count too. A legitimate night game in Oakland definitely qualifies.
3) The opponent is “Fragile”
I can’t think of a better word here, but we’re talking about the type of teams that tend to self-destruct at critical moments, especially on the road. Examples: Dallas, San Diego, Jets, Chicago with Sexy Rexy. Turnover prone QBs paired with mediocre or worse coaches really are the key here.
4) The team in question is getting points
It’s no fun to bet the house, get the game correct and be sweating a miracle cover. Better to take the points, put some more on the Money Line and enjoy the festivities.
Below is a non-comprehensive list of previous Bet the House games. I did not in fact bet my house on any of these, nor did I even get significant money down on all of them. I essentially pushed on the Cardinals game because I had so much on the ML, and the Packers/Chargers affair I had action that was split amongst several people. Last night I got in a solid couple of plays, but nothing as high as the two Seattle games. Betting on Seattle was much more fun when they weren’t as good, but at least now we get to go against them on the road.
The point of getting these gathered in one place is to be able to try and identify the pattern listed above a little more clearly the next time it arises.
Chicago Bears 24 (-13) at Arizona Cardinals 23
San Diego Chargers 24 (-5.5) at Green Bay Packers 31
Dallas Cowboys 25 (-11)at Buffalo Bills 24
New York Giants 17 vs. New England Patriots 14 (-12.5)
New York Jets 3 (-3.5) at Seattle Seahawks 13
Pittsburgh Steelers 6 (-10) at Cleveland Browns 13
New Orleans Saints 36 (-10) at Seattle Seahawks 41
This is the Marshawn Lynch Game where the Seahawks, who won their division at 7-9 got to host the 11-5 Saints.
San Diego Chargers 17 (-6) at Oakland Raiders 27
NFL Sunday
I’m just waking up but have plenty of time to get in my one play this week, Chargers @ Oakland +4.5. A night game for Raiders fans and Philip Rivers on the road and I still get points? That’s because the Raiders are terrible, but I’ll take them this week anyway.
2-0 in college yesterday so I’m 3-4 on the season there for -1.22.
Wonderful time of year
With hockey back in gear, baseball playoffs, and football abound…..wonderful time of year for gamblers and sports aficionados alike!
Interesting spotted trend early in hockey by poker’s Daniel Negreanu:
Expect more goals in the NHL this year since the rule change to goalie pad sizes. All the games last night went OVER. #goodforthegame
— Daniel Negreanu (@RealKidPoker) October 2, 2013
That being said, 65% of the overs so far have hit in hockey. Might be a trend we hop on with, and we’ll start tonight with Ottawa v Toronto over 5.5.
In baseball, I like S.Gray of the A’s getting +115 vs Justin Verlander, at home tonight in Game 2 of the ALDS. A’s lost last night, need a win, Verlander has struggled a bit this year (on my fantasy team #blah), Cabrera is playing on one leg, and I just think this series goes 5 overall.
In NFL:
Miami -3 (+105) v BAL
Baltimore’s offense is struggling, especially on the road. Miami is coming off a loss, healthy, and we are getting odds. And we’re gambling….
Teaser: Green Bay (-7) and Over (54) v DET
Two high powered offenses, RB Eddie Lacy is back, Rodgers at home, and I get to bet against Stafford on the road (at home he is fantastic). Tease em both down 6 points and rake in the dough.
PHI v NY Giants Over 53
These defenses stink
San Diego -5 (Even) at OAK
Oakland’s offensive line stinks, Matt Flynn is now the #3 QB behind some guy named McGloin, McFadden AND Marcel Reese are out. Add that this is a hedge against our SD under bet (which could be in jeopardy if Rivers keeps playing well)….and we’re gambling! Game is also at 11:35 ET thanks to the Oakland A’s playoffs.
JAX at St Louis (tie)
I wish I could bet this as a tie. No one wins even watching this game, never mind playing in it.
Your miracle cover of the week goes to OSU (-6.5) vs Northwestern:
Rebound
Had a great week 2, shitty week 3 (only saved by teasing Denver to -10 and the Over to 44 on MNF……the Raiders would “Miracle Push” the actual line with 1:50 in the 4th with a McFadden TD).
The thing about gambling problems is…..it’s not a problem if you win. And you can’t win if you don’t play!
SF -4 and Under 43 (The Rams are 5-1-1 vs the NFC West since the start of last season but 2-7-1 in their last 10 games vs the 49ers. Thursday night games have been sluggish, averaging 40 pts per game total by an avg margin of 11.5 points).
Mike Pierira tweeting from his basement agrees with us:
No clear favorite based on your responses. I think the Niners go to the run game for four quarters and win in a low scoring game.
— Mike Pereira (@MikePereira) September 27, 2013
IND – 9 @ JAX (Jacksonville sucks) also going to tease with Denver (-11 vs Philly)
CLE +4.5 v CIN (This game is always historically close, I’m hedging with my Cincy season AFC Central Champs bet, and I think we could have some Hoyer Magic in the works!)
And now I leave you with this important public service announcement tweet from Michael Irvin:
All you men over 40. GO LET THAT DR STICK HIS FINGER UP UR BUTT……PROSTATE CANCER KILLS. WAS DIFFICULT BUT I HAD TO. So do you! Good Luck
— Michael Irvin (@michaelirvin88) September 25, 2013
Steak n’ Cheese
Andy Reid is back in Philly tonight, after coaching there for 13+ seasons, as the HC of the KC Chiefs. The Chiefs are of to their first 2-0 start since 2010, and are currently the best red zone team in the league (5-for-5, all TDs) and the only one left without a turnover. Their defense isn’t half bad either (as long as the super duper safety Eric Berry stays healthy).
We also have the Eagles Over trend which I’ve hit the last two weeks. Between them running 85-90 plays a game, and their atrocious defense (they and the Chargers last week put on a “How NOT to tackle” clinic), this lines up to be another night to take the over straight up, yes?
I say no. I will say, despite me betting against the Chargers this year, Mike McCoy runs a great gameplan (once he gets his guys in there, this team will do better….but in a year or two). The Chargers possessed the ball last week for more than 3/5ths of the game; this, IMO, is how you have to beat the Eagles’ attack….possess the ball and give your defense some rest (the Chargers are so bad on defense it didn’t matter anyways as our over hit, but KC defense is better than SD). You know a motivated Reid knows the blueprint (and the horses to do so with RB Jamal Charles). Also, playing a short week this week….and from experience……these games tend to be AWFUL football. The players are tired, the coaches don’t have enough time to prepare, all while the NFL laughs all the way to the bank. Too bad we are such degenerate gamblers in this country, we can’t help but still not watch (and still bet the over in some capacity).
That’s why I like the tease here: KC to +9.5 and and Over to 44 (-110). These teams play close games, and someone winning 24-20 is a definite possibility (bets saved are bets earned). I just hope Vick doesn’t get hurt (but he probably will).
New York Giants +1 (at Carolina, -105)
Giants need a win after going 0-2, and despite their crappy defensive play and Eli turning it over like a omelet, they’ve averaged scoring 27.5 pts/game. Carolina has lost two gut wrenching games, their offense can’t score TDs, and they make dumb penalties at the worst times……thanks to their shitty coach Ron Rivera (who gets fired first, him or Schiano?). Coughlin will get these guys motivated to win. We’ll take the points (and its now to a pick’em).
Vikings -7 (+105)
Vikings are also desperate at 0-2 in their home opener, losing two close games in their early weeks. The Browns just traded away their best player (RB Trent Richardson) to the Colts for a 1st round pick next year (GREAT trade for Browns, IMO…..and they might also go 0-16 and get the 1st round pick! The bang-bang!*), Ohio native and MSU alum Brian Hoyer (former backup for the Pats) is starting at QB, and the Browns signed 40 year old Willis McGahee (I picked him up in all of my leagues, I admit it). We’re getting juice, although the QB we are betting on isn’t that much better……but Ponder’s Home/Road splits are night and day. And the Vikings have AP. We’ll give the points and #andwearegambling
*Cleveland plays the Jaguars on December 1st, and it could be the first time we had an negative undefeated (a positive way to say, “no wins”) toilet bowl this deep into a season since the 0-9 Patriots played the 0-8 Colts in 1990. I’m giddy at the thought of this being a pick’em.
Lions/Washington R.G. Threes Over (whatever it is)
It’s off the board because Bush is (probably) not going to play, but Joique Bell has been a “steady” RB sleeper in fantasy as he’d played in nearly half the snaps in the games as the backup (also picks up the blitz better. That equals playing time). These teams can both move the ball, make big plays as well as give up big plays. Add a motivated Robert Griffin III….. probably the game of the day, here.
I have have the urge to be a huge degen and take the Seahawks -19 vs Jacksonville at home…….but I’ll probably still tease it with something like Denver because I just can’t stop betting. We’ll see how the day goes.
Extra Credit – UFC:
Blaine Gabbert Sucks
Fuckin’ Blaine Gabbert, man…….I have KC/JAX Over (41.5) and JAX gets a quick safety early….we actually get to 23 at halftime…suddenly its 28 to fuckin 2 and that’s how the game ends. KC might not score 28 points the REST OF THE YEAR.
What I missed though……is an opportunity to bet against Blaine Gabbert. I think he sucks. Balls. Between the happy feet and the over hype coming out of college, I knew this guy should of been a guy “who I have to bet against every time he starts.” He would join Dan Orlovsky, Jeff George, and Tim Couch as the other guys who I would always bet against when they started. These men paid my rent, and instead of continuing the tradition with Blaine Gabbert, I’ve put faith in this guy now multiple times (I also bet the Jags at +375 at home last year vs Chicago. I also love betting against Jay Cutler, but the Jags thought it would be a good idea to wear black jerseys in 90 degree heat in September. #facepalm #moneyonfire).
No more. I can’t wait for this guy to get signed by the Jets or some other suckbag team that I can bet furious amounts of money on.
Ironically, he got hurt/benched and now Henne is starting for the Jags. Henne is actually OK and i think 3rd best backup QB in NFL; he has flaws (late on throws), but has a good arm and a good rhythm with Cecil Shorts III (who had 8 TD and 897 yards last year when Henne became starter and Cecil saved my fantasy leagues when I was short at WR depth). The Jags might actually now win 4 games this year, where with Gabbert, they might of only won 2. I am upset because I was going to pull a Pat Darts and bet the Raiders at home this week, but not bet is off as JAX now has a chance to win.
BTW, don’t ask about Danny Amendola or the inept Pats offense if you see me. Every time I see Welker, it’s like seeing an ex-girlfriend with a less attractive (rich) guy with a gimp.
Here are the picks:
GB -7 (-115) vs Washington
The Redskins looked awful defending the run last week, couldn’t hold on to the ball, and only came back when the Eagles took the gas off the pedal (as they usually do) in the 4th quarter. Opener in Lambeau Field, a still-shaky-n-rusty RG III (who I am benching for Schaub in a fantasy league this week), and a pissed off Green Bay team who lost a game they should of had a better chance to win last week because the refs screwed them over again and will probably cost them a home game in the playoffs. Add the karma with their nickname (I now call them, “The Washington R.G. Threes”)……and we’re gambling!
Eagles/Chargers Over 55 (-105)
Until the Eagles’ main players (McCoy, Jackson) get hurt and Mike Vick gets his spleen broken into 99 pieces, you have to keep taking their overs here as they try to run 85-90 plays/game. Add the fact they are playing the Chargers at home, who blew a 28-7 lead on MNF (and Houston, Over bettors like me thank them for it!), I can see this being a game in the 30s (that the Chargers find a way to lose…again #Norvcurse).
Baltimore -7 (EVEN) vs Browns
Home opener, ring ceremony, Ray-Ray in da house, EVEN spread (should be -110)…….and the hapless Browns (way to rub it in, Baltimore Ownership). Add the fact the Browns have lost 12 in a row in Baltimore (and have gone 9-1-1 ATS in those games), with the Ravens are coming off a long week where Manning threw 7 TDs (and they def replayed this on film over and over), they should have the motivation to crush this team.
All of above in Teaser +160
Seahawks -3 (+105)
I essentially think this is a coin flip, and I think getting juice (it should be SEA -3 EVEN) on a home fav (rare) is a steal.
Add the Seahawks’ great fans (and best home field in all of sports) are going to try and break a Guinness World Record this week in crowd noise….and we’re gambling. On a side note for those with a major gambling problem, the fact you have the two best defenses in football, the under at 44 also looks tasty.
I also wanted to put the Falcons in a teaser (-6) with the Texans (-10), but I am done with putting ATL in teasers….it always loses money….. like me on a Friday night at Tattletales (and at least then, I get to see some boobies).
On a side note, with the Mayweather Fight, Texas A&M vs Bama game, EPL Soccer, MLB, and NFL….this weekend could break a volume betting record in a Vegas “Perfect Storm”:
“In all my years, I’ve never seen a schedule that sets up so perfectly for betting,” said Vaccaro, now working for the sportsbook at the South Point casino. “You can’t put together a schedule like this. It just happens, and when it does, it’s definitely good for business. It’s going to be off the charts.”
Anytime could be the most wonderful time of year to gamble!
These Teams Stink
As do my college football picks. 0-3 to start the “season.” No opponents on these as it doesn’t matter and I only have a vague idea as to who the opponents are anyway.
Connecticut +6 +105
South Alabama +8.5 -110
NFL
Dallas @ Kansas City -3 -110
On holiday the next two weeks. No September baseball as you all have obviously noticed. Three sports is too many to keep up with.
Football Stuff
Going over currently open bets, as well as submitting my picks for Over/Under Season Totals. Speaking of which, the Indiana play took a hit last night with a home loss to Navy. Indiana looks to be able to score points with relative ease but they had genuine problems on the defensive side. Hopefully this was more of a case of facing a weird offense (triple option). We shall see. Aside from that, bets I am the house for…
Oakland Raiders Under 5.5 (-229) 150 Units
Oakland Raiders League Worst Record (+225) 30 Units
And bets on my end…
Cincy to win AFC (+1200) 15 Units
I really didn’t think Andy Dalton was going to be good in the pros, but he has progressed to the point for me that I actually forget it’s Andy Dalton who is out there.
5 Point Pick – Browns Over 6
Hear me out. Pitt and Balt seem to be both getting worse these days. Cleveland has a favorable stretch of 3 home games early on where they play Cincy, Buffalo on a very short week, and then have a week and a half before Detroit comes in. Trent hitting his prime.
4 Point Pick – Panthers Under 7
You know how Harbaugh is all about trying to prevent Kapernick from getting hurt? Do you know who you don’t hear being a part of that conversation? Ron Rivera, who is coming across as the equivalent of an absentee father with Newton. If Newton gets injured at any point early, a plausible scenario given the distressing fact that he was Carolina’s leading rusher last year, this Under is a lock. Steve Smith aint getting any younger, their running backs aint getting any healthier.
Side Note, I love how confident I sound when making picks.
3 Point Pick – Packers Under 10.5
In Simmons’ season preview he rightly points out how difficult the Packer away schedule is.
2 Point Pick – Falcons Over 10
I see this as Atlanta signing up for making a run this year. There is no way Gonzalez plays a down in the league after this year. Steve Jax is never going to be as productive moving forward as he will be this year. Good chance the same can be said for Roddy. I do not think they will feel the ripple effect of trading away a chunk of their future for Julio at this point. Once more into the fray while you all still have legs.
1 Point Pick – Patriots Under 11
They have an easy schedule, they play in the easiest division of the easier conference. All they do is win double digit games of every year. But my God did they look awful in the preseason. I put next to no faith, stock, belief in preseason football, except when I want to.
NFL Season Wins 2013
Back temporarily after a life break because as much as we wish it were the case, gambling comes in a solid 2nd or 3rd on the life priority scale. I’m traveling again soon so baseball is likely done for me on the season, but we’ll see how it goes now that fantasy drafts are completed.
Quickly for the uninitiated, Pat and I pick five teams with confidence scoring for Over or Under the Season Wins Pinnacle line. Winner gets a pub crawl and the loser also gets a pub crawl. It’s a pretty sweet system. Related, Sean and I both agree that betting on failure is a lot more rewarding. Forward!
5) Oakland Raiders UNDER 5.5
I’ll see if Pat will take my action on worst team in the NFL which would payout much better than the -229 currently on Oakland here. I would be shocked if this over hit.
4) San Diego Chargers UNDER 7.5
The most succinct paragraph I could find on the 2013 Chargers
San Diego Chargers. Let’s review: this team finished 22nd in offensive DVOA this year, with the worst adjusted sack rate in the league, and their major offseason fix was adding Danny Woodhead. They drafted D.J. Fluker to help protect the immobile Philip Rivers at right tackle. I think D.J. Fluker is a guard. They installed King Dunlap at left tackle. Nobody thinks King Dunlap is a left tackle. They lost promising hybrid endbacker Melvin Ingram for the season with an ACL tear, and their solution was to call up Dwight Freeney. That would be awesome if it was 2003. It is not 2003. Perpetually injured Derek Cox is their No. 1 cornerback, draft question mark Shareece Wright is ostensibly the No. 2, and offseason waiver claim Johnny Patrick and camp cut Richard Marshall are the depth at the position. The Raiders are a bigger mess, but there’s no chance the Chargers are winning eight games when the only phase of the game they can claim as a strength is stopping the run.
3) Cincinnati Bengals OVER 8.5
Like Sean, I like the Bungles this season.
2) Carolina Panthers OVER 7
Cam Newton > Ron Rivera I hope.
1) New York Jets UNDER 6.5
I don’t like this nearly as much as others do, but given my lack of NFL following this offseason I am lacking any more teams I have a strong opinion about.
Over Easy
I think Collinsworth during last nights incredibly long game (only outlasted by the Yankees-Red Sox game that lasted to the 11th) said it best: defenses are going to have a hard time early on, especially when the weather is warm, to keep up with hurry up offenses this season. For Manning, it makes sense: he’s been running it his whole life, has great weapons on the outside, and many teams find it foreign physically to keep up in the rare Mile high air. Add the “Kevin Ogletree Award” winner of 2013 Julius Thomas in the mix, and Denver might average not only 33.5 points at home, but 30 overall (I think its only been done 3 times).
That being said, I am bullish on overs this week, especially in games in nice weather:
Falcons at Saints Over 54 -110 (now at 55 -111, could go to 54.5 -115)
In da Dome, Payton is back, neither team has much of a pass rush, and both teams are loaded on offense. Plus, these two teams hate each other. This could be the game of the day.
New England at Buffalo Over 49-116 (now 51 even)
Brady comes out and tries to match Peyton Manning’s (who I have in 3 fantasy leagues) record day. Plus the Bills are missing Safety Stephon Gilmore (a former Gowin Alumnus of the South Carolina Gamecocks) as well as Jarius Byrd (in trade rumor) being questionable with a foot injury. I’ll also probably tease this.
NY Giants versus Dallas Over 49.5 -105 (this will move wildly before kickoff)
NBC/NFL will ensure that this game also takes 4.5 hours (as well as Garrett throwing on every down).
KC at Jacksonville Over 42.5 -110
Well, why the fuck not! These teams are due to play in a shootout by default at some point, right? And Andy Reid is an offensive genius….you should see this guy work on a rack of ribs!
Miami at Cleveland 41 -110
Just a test, as UConn’s Jim Calhoun would say, “Not a dime” on this game. If you think on betting on anything in this game, you should re-assess your life immediately and probably call up Gambler’s Anonymous at 1-800-IAMAFUCKINGDEGEN
(BTW: Parlay of all of these is $25 to win $610…does anyone have a cell phone?)
Carolina ML +156
I’m intrigued here because we’re at home, with a decent QB (Newton has ALOT to prove this year), nice weather, and the whole “West Coast-to-East Coast” trend (which got broken this year, but I think that is more of an outlier). Does Seattle have the best defense in the NFL? Maybe. But they are missing players due to suspension and they are young so its a defense which will improve over the year. Also since I have Lynch in 2 fantasy leagues, this is a nice hedge. I just am always worried Ron Rivera steps on his dick….although, he’s going up against Pete Carroll, so that could be a wash.
Good luck, all: I look forward to hearing Pat Darts’ rationale when the subject of taking the Raiders (+374 at IND) and Terrelle Pryor on the road, comes up on Sunday.
