Category: NFL
NFL Sunday
Ugly day yesterday with two terrible teams losing again, giving back a lot of our win from Friday. In the NFL today, the short list is looking quite sparse. Carolina, Atlanta, San Diego and Dallas are the only options using just the public numbers, and there are a number of reason why those teams are particularly unpopular. Atlanta is out because of their heavy line move and I really don’t see anything on the Chargers that warrant betting them.
Carolina and Dallas are interesting for a couple of reasons. They are obviously anti-public teams or they wouldn’t be on the shortlist, but they both also had a reverse line move this week, and their opponents, SF and NO are the #1 and #2 picks in the Hilton contest this week. For those unaware, the top 5 picks each week in the Hilton contest should be avoided at all costs and possibly bet the other way as the record on those plays is something like 11-33 so far. Any one factor doesn’t make a team worth betting, but when three or more variables start pointing the same way, I start paying attention.
NFL
Carolina +6 -115 @ San Francisco
Dallas +6 -105 @ New Orleans
I would not take 5.5 on either of these.
Bookmaker Garbage Line Teaser
NYG -1, IND -2 -120
Nothing in hockey today.
Rebound
Tough last week but you can only win if you bet more!
NCAA:
Texas A&M v Miss State Over 68
UFC:
Vitor “The Phenom” Belfort vs Dan “Hendo” Henderson – Total Rounds 2.5 Over at -110
NFL:
Teaser: Baltimore +1 and Under 44 (a hedge versus my Cincy win AFC North bet)
Dallas at New Orleans Over 54
Denver (-7) at San Diego, the Over 58, and both in teaser
Chicago (pick) vs Detroit
I now present the worst call of the year (even worse than the penalty kick Chelsea FC’s Ramires got today in the 94′ versus West Brom to salvage a 2-2 tie, thanks to a Eden Hazard PK):
NFL Play
As Louis said, lot of stuff going on out there tonight. For the most part I am going to just be a very interested spectator, which in Vegas speak means, “lame guy who is taking up a chair in the sports book.” The one play I am making is in contradiction to Louis with Wash -1 -106 @ 21.
Month to Date : +46.45
Thursday
Today in gambling reminds me of our old Sports Trivia days, “Question 9: Sports!”
Hockey has one straightforward play tonight, Vancouver +156 @ San Jose. Senators were a winner on Tuesday.
College tackle football, Stanford +10 -110 at home to Oregon
Lastly, in Professional tackle football, I have Minnesota +1 at home to Washington.
There is NBA tonight as well, but I do not yet know how to wager on it. :(
Good luck out there.
Monday
No plays for me on Sunday on what would have likely been a breakeven day judging by my shortlist. The Jaguars have kind of thrown off the lines and stats this year as they are an order of magnitude worse than whatever team (Tampa) is #31, but it’s traditionally very, very difficult for one NFL team to beat another by 14+ points on any consistent basis. Seattle has shown that, squeaking out wins against two bottom 10 teams the last two weeks.
Pat is on the Bears tonight and I am too, Chicago +10 -110 for me. Public is ~30% on Chicago tonight and that’s just good enough for me to wade in with a play. I would pass on the 9.5 that was being shown earlier.
Also Arkansas was a loser on Saturday in my only college play. My Auburn under is officially toast as well with this win, but that was bound to happen after their A&M victory a few weeks back. Still Alive in my other four futures for likely a break even-ish season on those. I’ll update my season record once I finish the spreadsheets for college.
No hockey yesterday or today and only a slight possibility for tomorrow. As mentioned, I tweaked the system to reduce the volume of plays, hopefully that will be a good thing. 5-5 +1.85 there.
NFL Plays
These plays are @ 22
Falcons +9.5 -113
Minn +9.5 -114
Saints -5.5 -105
Tenn -3 -104
These plays are @ 14
Titans/Rams Under 40.5 -108
Vikings/Cowboys Under 50.5 -102
Month To Date : -3.21
****UPDATE****
These are @ 16
Tampa +15.5 -101
Patriots -6 +100
Browns ML +106
****UPDATE #2****
Good day today so far. Let’s try to keep the mojo.
Texans -1 +102 @ 22
****UPDATE the Third****
Tough beat in the Texans game. Cannot complain too much as our Viking/Cowboy under required a missed extra point towards the end to hit. Tonight we go with Bears +10 -109 @ 21
Buffalo Wild Wings
There’s one game a year I like to speculate a big upset on, and this year it’s Buffalo +3.5 and the Money Line +165 versus Kansas City.
The Chiefs are undefeated, but also have played mostly a cupcake schedule. Their defense is legit (and healthiest out of all of the AFC contenders) but their offense is really craptastic. They don’t turn the ball over and Alex Smith manages the game very well. They also are experts at having 3-and-outs after their defense gets a turnover. They should, however, give Denver a good run for their money in the AFC West just because their secondary is top 3 in the league.
I, like Darts, was rooting for the Chiefs to win last week so that they would be undefeated going into this game. They play the Broncos next week, so the “overlook a week” alert is in effect. Buffalo plays tough at home and can make big plays (they give them up too, as told by Lou’s bad beat story).
Now if I can only just get Gus Johnson to call the game, I’d bet the future house on it:
San Diego at Washington Over 51
If I was a defensive coordinator, I would play this tape to my team to demonstrate how NOT to tackle. Also going to throw this in a teaser with New Orleans -6
Baltimore -3 (+110)
Road Favorites are 60% ATS since 2000 coming off of a bye. Jason Campbell made us some money last week (via a teaser, thank you South Carolina Gamecock K Ryan Succop). And we’re gambling……
If Percy Harvin is active this week, I might also take Seattle -17 at home versus Tampa. I just don’t see how Tampa scores in that building, especially without Doug Martin.
We leave you with this excellent video from over at Barstool Sports on various cell phone videos taken of people losing their shit at bars around the country when the Red Sox won the 2013 World Series (and I won $215 after clinching our “No manager or player will get thrown out” prop):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZbPs1o2TlQ
Still Here
Just with nothing to gamble on. Going back few days, not only did the Rams cover but they had 1st and goal with four chances to win the game and predictably failed on all four attempts. I got cold feet after my Cardinals, Bills and Bucs forays and couldn’t bring myself to wager on yet another terrible football team with no QB. This is why systems are good for you.
Speaking of systems, I tweaked mine for NHL and it keeps coming back with no plays. This means I can’t lose anything, but it’s also very non-eventful. Buffalo and Nashville are leans and not plays for me tonight.
Lastly, following along with Sean’s NBA picks, I took a couple of futures because I can’t help myself when it comes to a good season bet. I have the Nets to win the Atlantic at -140 and Milwaukee over 28 wins at -123.
I am most likely passing on tonight’s shitty Thursday night NFL game, but the public is 4:1 on the Bungles so it’s Miami or nothing for me. I’ll probably play if the line makes it to 4 (it’s currently 3 -113). Should be some games on Sunday as the public is loading up on some of these away teams.
Monday
Buffalo was an NFL loser yesterday thanks to their inability to stop touchdowns from occurring on 3rd and 20. I wasn’t around to get anything down on a teaser or the Cardinals which would have lost and won respectively. Very tempted to have a go with the Rams tonight at +13 at home to Seattle. This is basically the same as last week’s game with the Cardinals, only St. Louis doesn’t have a quarterback. I can’t bet Seattle, so it’s St. Louis or pass. I probably pass here.
No hockey yesterday. Washington is very close today at Vancouver, but I’ll wait a few hour since it’s a west coast game.
Sunday
I am hungover too. 1-1 on hockey yesterday for a small win. 4-4 for +1.5 so far. In NCAA Colorado was a loser by more than 13. 5-6 -1.34 for me now on that season.
Only one NFL play for me so far and it’s Buffalo +11 @ New Orleans. Pat, Sean, their parents and roughly 80% of the betting public are all taking New Orleans today. It’s also a top 5 Hilton contest pick along with Dallas, Seattle, Minnesota and Atlanta. That all points me to the away team and I’d be backing up the truck somewhat if this game were in Buffalo. Also no Jimmy Graham today for the Saints.
I may end up taking Arizona in the late game, but it will depend on the line and if I’m around. Will check for any teasers here too before kickoff.
