Category: NFL
More Sunday Bets
First, thanks to Lou for his Winnipeg suggestion yesterday, as we took the ML (+110) at a Stamkos-less TB Lighting team. The Jets won 2-1.
Also, thanks to Ohio State choking away the BCS title game last night, Auburn opens as a 7 point underdog to Florida State for the BCS title game. I kinda like Auburn here at first glance.
Second, I’ve added some more picks for today:
ATL at GB Under 44 (it’s going to snow in Lambeau today, and Rodgers isn’t playing)
Teaser: NE -10 and IND/CIN Under 44
Teaser BAL -7 (+105) and Under 41.5 (it’s snowing in BAL today)
Seattle Superbowl
After the Seahawks easily disposed of the Saints on Monday, I decided to take the plunge at 11/10 to take them to win the NFC. They have a virtual 3 game lead on the conference, own the tiebreaker over the Panthers (the only team left that might have a chance to beat them in that building…and they are in a fight with the Saints in the NFC South), and are the most balanced team in football right now. They have the largest average of margin in wins in the NFL this year, and 2nd in total points (behind the Broncos). I believe that with their home field advantage, that the only thing holding them back to NYC is an injury (especially to Marshawn Lynch).
The Seahawks can be run on, and will be run on by the 49ers this week who are desperate and playing for the Wild Card lives (hence why I’ll take the 49ers -3 at home @ +105 along with the ML at -137 this week)….but if they face them the 3rd time around, it will be in Seattle, where Kaepernick has shown to crap his pants. Seattle will most likely finish the year 14-2 or 13-3, as they finish up the year Giants, Cardinals, and Rams. I also create some fun hedging opportunities in the playoffs with this scenario (I can only hope Carolina gets double digits in Seattle in a playoff game) with this, so I consider this a +EV prop.
The Seahawks are 5/2 to win the entire thing. Interesting if that will change depending on their playoff performance.
I also like:
New Orleans vs Carolina Over 46
Teaser: Arizona -6 (vs St.Louis) and Under 42
Giants +155 ML (at San Diego)
Also might have some plays on Baltimore (vs MIN, -7, 42 O/U) and Denver (vs TEN, -13, 49 O/U) at home, but they are weather dependent as storms will be across the US on Sunday with ice, snow, and wind. Indy +7 is temping, but it has too much juice (-120) for my taste.
UFC:
Mark “Super Samoan” Hunt vs Antonio “Big Foot” Silva Over 1.5 rounds +130
Anthony “The Hippo” Perosh +375 (is fighting in his home country of Australia vs Ryan Bader, whose lost his last 2 of his last 3 fights).
Our tweet of the week comes again from WagerMinds:
The NFL's worst team against the spread? Yep, it's the Marc Trestman-led Chicago Bears at 2-8-2.
— WagerMinds (@WagerMinds) December 3, 2013
Monday
Another winning day yesterday as only Washington was a loser. That’s two weeks in a row they have come up as a play and completely stunk. I’m honestly not sure how I will handle them if they come up as a play again in the next week or two. Houston was also an easy cover yesterday and they probably should have won outright. Atlanta required some incompetence by Buffalo but were a good play getting 4 or more points.
I hope someone has been following the hockey plays I have been listing as they’re now 7 for the last 8 and well up on the season.
Nothing in any sports tonight. Updates on lots of things in the morning.
NFL
Nothing clever here. Love faves this week. Am making an 80 bet to win 72 on all fave lines minus G-Men. In addition, all bets here @ 20
Miami @ Jets -1 -110
Chicago @ Vikings -1 105
Parlay MLs Panthers -305 Pats -285 Browns -315
Cards @ Eagles -3.5 +100
Dolphins/Jets Over 39.5 -110
Parlay MLs Colts -180 Bills -25
Sunday
Mixed day yesterday as both hoops sides were winners, Eastern Illinois by a single point and Harvard by a lot. One the Texas A&M total, it turned out to be a bad line as it should have been 138.5 instead of 128.5 and was quickly corrected after I placed by action. It didn’t matter as the teams only combined for 107. Kentucky was an easy loser in football and I’m back to a slight negative there after a good run.
NFL today had two games worth noting, only one of which is any good at the moment. Houston is hosting New England today and were anywhere from +9.5 to +7.5 underdogs. That’s now moved to 7 or even 6.5, removing the Texans as a play today :( The other notable game is Atlanta +4 “at” Buffalo as the game is being played in Toronto. I am on Atlanta for a small (half) play. Lastly, the night game tonight is the Giants @ Washington. Not sure yet if that will amount to anything, but if so Washington is the side to be on there.
NHL: Nothing yesterday but one game very likely today and that’s Edmonton +150. Gametime is 6:00 Eastern so I’ll confirm that later.
NCAA: No totals yet as they tend to get released late. One side today, Siena +10.5
Good luck today.
UPDATES: Added Atlanta +4.5 to make for a full bet and confirming Edmonton +150
UPDATE 2: Washington to win -105
Week 13 Quick Slants
UFC:
Nate Diaz +105
NFL:
Teasers: NE -9 and Over 47 at HOU; Atlanta +3.5 and Over 48 at BUF
Jacksonville +7 (even) also will throw this in teaser with Under 40.5 vs Cleveland
49ers -7 vs St. Louis
Our bet of the week comes from the WagerMinds twitter:
A $100 parlay on Auburn and Penn State to win outright would have paid $8,056. Sadly, no one on earth bet it.
— WagerMinds (@WagerMinds) December 1, 2013
Gobble Gobble; Gamble, Gamble
Tomorrow is a day of thanks, where millions across the country will be thanking many countless football players that they’ve never met for helping them win money for XMAS gifts this year.
I also thank the gambling gods to give me 3 reasons to watch these games tomorrow (because some of the talent on the field sure won’t). All of these teams are pretty darn flawed.
GB +7 (-120) at Detroit
Detroit is an undisciplined mess but supremely talented. The Packers also know they need to win this game to get it back to Aaron Rodgers for a chance to win the division/wild card down the stretch, despite having Matt Flynn at QB. It will be a close division game and I am sure someone on Detroit’s defense will at some point be called for an unsportsmanlike penalty call.
Pittsburgh/Ravens Under 41 (-110)
Big game for both teams, with the loser being out for a chance for the craptastic 6th seed in the AFC (which is +250 that team will have 9 or more wins).
I can win a division in fantasy football this week with a 6-7 record, so it’s not like *I* should talk.
Its going to be very windy and cold and raw at night in Baltimore, and these games are traditionally low scoring and close. Add to the fact that Joe Flacco is the most useless overpaid WR in the league, this game should be a yawner (until the 4th).
Parlay: GB +7, PIT/BAL U 41, OAK/DAL O 47 (2 units to win 20)
It’s the holidays, why not!?
Happy Thanksgiving and safe holiday travels everybody!
Monday Funday
Great job by Sean and Pat here over the weekend. Great picks by both and a healthy profit was had by all. I sat out most of the day, losing the teaser be but winning some Zimbabwean dollars on a hoops “play.” More action this evening so let’s get to it…
NHL: Columbus +166
NCAA Hoops: Wyoming/Ohio State UNDER 131.5
Minnesota/Syracuse UNDER 143
NFL game tonight is San Francisco @ Washington +4.5. San Francisco is a west coast team playing on the east coast as a favorite with the public 79% on their side. They are also a top 5 play in the Hilton contest, and while those picks are 4-0 this week, it only puts them up to 19-32-2 for the season. Washington +4.5 is the play here.
Will update stats tomorrow.
NFL Sunday
I am largely passing on today’s slate of NFL games as there’s nothing that really stands out. Lots of games are 50/50 as far as public betting numbers. The two teams that were the closest to being bets for me are San Diego and the Jets, but I can only find 4 on the latter and the Chargers line has moved from +5 to +3.5 so that is an automatic pass as I don’t play follow NFL line moves of over a point.
I do have a garbage line teaser today and that’s Chicago and Pittsburgh both +8.5. They are both +1 on Pinnacle.
Yesterday had college football plays go 2-1 as LSU and San Diego State covered fairly easily with Arkansas losing in OT. Hockey plays were 1-1 with Ottawa winning 4-2 and Dallas losing heavily 6-1. Nothing in hockey or college football today.
Lastly, one college hoops play as I don’t see anything on the totals. Please don’t bet these or take the other side as I’m 0 for the season so far. Northeastern +12
Drunken Promises
Both Sean and I were winners last week, boldly picking the Raiders on the road. Fortune favored this brave pick, and we were rewarded with a cover. While watching the game, we patted each other on the back, saying “I mean, who thinks the Texans are 10 points better than anyone?” “I know right, you have to bet against them at that line against anyone, I’d do it if they were playing Jacksonville for Chrissake!” “No brainer,” said I, swigging from a 40. “Let’s do a shot.” Fast forward to this week, where lo and be-motherfuckin-hold who should the Texans be playing? Fantastic. As if betting Oakland wasn’t proof enough of mental instability, we now get to bet on the Jaguars. Where’s that 40 at? All of these plays are @ 19.
Jacksonville +10.5 -109 @ Houston
Jets @ Ravens Under 38.5 -113
Bears @ Rams Over 46.5 -102
Meanwhile the lines are going a bit bizzerk. I was all prepared to bet Tampa and the Chargers who have both dropped like 2 points in the last couple hours…
Cowboys @ Giants -2.5 -115
Steelers @ Browns ML -134
Colts @ Cards -3 -116
Broncos @ Patriots ML +111
7 Pt Teaser making the lines Tampa +14.5 Chargers +10.5 Jets +11.5
