Category: NFL
MLB, NCAA, and a UFC Parlay
MLB:
LA Dodgers @ Washington Nationals Over 7.5 +105
3-1 so far this 2016 playoff.
NCAA
Miss St v Auburn Under 54.5 (-110)
Notre Dame vs NC State Under 56
UFC PARLAY:
Albert Tumenov (-240) and Michael Bisping (-250) at +101
NFL Week 5 Leans
OK, onto trying to predict and profit off of some more shitty NFL football this weekend:
Minnesota -7 (+105)
This has now moved to -110. Texans go into Minnesota reeling on defense after losing JJ Watt for the year, and their offense has been inconsistent at best, especially on the road. While Minnesota doesn’t have the best *talent* on defense, it’s still pretty damn good, and they have the best coach “in form” in Mike Zimmer, while being are relatively healthy. I’d rather have 11 good players, in form and healthy, as supposed to 11 Hall of Famers who are banged up…when it comes to a defensive unit. Also, Sam Bradford has played damn good football since getting traded (for what I still think is too many draft picks) to the Vikings, and at +1600 at MVP, it’s actually not a bad play. I can’t believe I just wrote that sentence, but it’s definitely in play because the Vikings are probably the #1 seed in the NFC, if we project it out from today. It’s like the Vikings, who lost all pro players at numerous positions, are like the ultimate “Ewing Theory” team. Their only real weakness is the kicker. I should of taken them 10-to-1 to win the NFL when I had the chance in the preseason.
As a last side note: Mike Zimmer vs the spread in the last two years: 28-5. And the Vikings, and their games, are one of the lowest volume bets in all of football.
Buffalo at LA Rams Under 40 (-105)
This projects to be a rock fight. The LA Rams last home game ended 9-6. They have a top 3 defense, and the Bills (coming off a shutout of the Brady-less Pats, 16-0) have a top 10 defense. Both offenses can run the ball, but have a hard time throwing it because, well, it’s the fucking Bills and the fucking Rams. Neither of these teams haven’t thrown the ball since Jim Kelly and Kurt Warner left their respective teams. Additionally, in the Rams’ new stadium at the “old as balls” LA Coliseum, is shaped like a bowl instead of a cascade. This is significant because when it’s hot in LA (who has had a hotter than usual summer and fall), there’s no shade for fans (sounds like a great time!) or players alike. 88 degree weather on 1pm on Sunday will create fatigue, which creates fail. Hopefully it also doesn’t result in defensive and special teams fail touchdowns.
Washington +4 (-115)
The Washington football team goes into Baltimore this week for a darby. Someone wins this game by a field goal. I don’t know who, and I don’t care, because I will probably watch less than 5 minutes of these shitty, flawed teams playing. I’m making bets out of spite; that’s how disgruntled I am with the NFL this year.
TEASER:
PIT -7.5
DAL +2
MIN -7
MLB BONUS:
Red Sox @ Cleveland Over 7 (-120)
LA Dodgers @ Washington Over 6 (-105)
NFL Week 4
Put up a big ole donut last week; glad I got it out of the way! There are usually 1-2 weeks a year where one’s bets get cleaned out like losing chips on a roulette table. But I am confident that we can get back on track this week.
It really has been “bizarro year” so far. NFL teams receiving less than 30% of spread bets have gone 7-3 ATS this season, Rookie QBs have a W-L of 6-1 and are 7-0 ATS, and if you bet the ML underdog on every game so far this year, you’d be up 10.5 units!!!1111 Usually, if that ratio is at around -10% to -20%, that means it’s a good year for underdogs…nevermind an ROI of +70% or more!
Cleveland +9 (-120)
The Browns are in Washington this week and this line has cratered to around -7 or -7.5. WR Tyrelle Pryor’s play for the Browns has been one of the few bright spots for the team. They lost last week’s game in OT thanks to 3 missed FGs due to a backup kicker; the regular starter got hurt on Friday during a WARM UP. How in the hell does one injure himself in a warm up? This being said, Cody Parker played well last week and the Washington Football Team is flaky in terms of consistent performance during games, never mind week to week. I don’t know how one could be a fan of either of these teams without having a heart attack.
New York Jets +3 (-130)
The juice is high here, but lots to like about the Jets this week, despite Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing 6 INTs last week (we have some candidates for now what a 6 INT game is now called: I like the “The Dirty Fitz”, but reader, Bills fan, and fellow contributor Nick also said that the “Fitz 6” is also the more stronger choice). Upside? The Jets offense and Fitz can’t play any worse than that. Russell Wilson is questionable with a knee sprain and didn’t finish the game last week; I drafted him in the 3rd round in one of my leagues and I’ve benched the guy for 2 straight games. Thomas Rawls is out with injury at RB, so the Seahawks had to sign 1st Round bust C.J. Spiller off the street (I also had to pick him up in the same league; I hate running bad in fantasy). The OL has been terrible for Seattle and the Jets have a top 3 defensive line. The game is at 1pm, and West Coast teams due tend to struggle with that (I should of listened to Cousin Sal last week RE: BUF v ARI). I expect a low scoring game, and might throw the Jets in a teaser with the under (40) on a cold, and maybe rainy, day in New Jersey.
Tampa Bay -3.5 (-115)
Trevor Siemian has looked OK so far as QB for the Broncos, leading his team off to a 3-0 start. The under I have at 9 is in jeopardy, but at some point you’d have to think a market correction occurs with this team. While he has good command of the offense, he’s also wildly inconsistent with his accuracy at times; the Bengals last week dropped several interceptions. Denver’s defense has not been as good against the run as they were last year. The Broncos are getting 88% of the money on the road here against a Tampa team that has shown it can throw the ball down the field and keep games close despite lack of depth at RB and in the secondary.
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville Over 49 (-110)
This game is in London; the poor UK fans. That being said, the fail from both of these teams should provide short fields and easy scores for both teams. The over has hit 70% of the time in the London games…this could be due to the teams in the game, but also the fact I think the long flight and trip creates dead legs which cuts into the cardio of the defenders as the game goes along.
TEASER (+140):
IND/JAX Over 49
HOU -5
ARI -7
CFL BONUS:
Ottawa Redblacks +5.5 (-110)
Week 3 NFL Lines
Arizona -4 (-105) @ Buffalo
Yes, it is an early 1pm game on the road for the West Coast Arizona Cardinals….but Buffalo is reeling right now, just firing their offensive coordinator (who was the highest paid OC in all of football) and probably not having Sammy Watkins available as he is battling an injury and was just downgraded from questionable to doubtful.
Carolina -7 (-110) vs Minnesota
Minnesota will be without the following former first round picks due to injury: RB Adrian Peterson, OT Kalil, DT Sharif Floyd, and of course QB Teddy Bridgewater. The Floyd injury is the most significant; the Vikings have a hard time moving the ball as it is and Carolina can just play the inside running game much easier to win the field position battle. I just don’t see how the Vikings score enough points to keep this one close.
LA Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 42.5 (-110)
This one will be a yawner. The Rams best offense is their defense, and the Bucs will be without RB Doug Martin.
Pittsburgh -3.5 @ Philadelphia
I think the Eagles good start comes down to earth this week. They are a little banged up and the Pittsburgh offense is playing well. Rookie QBs also usually don’t do that well against Pittsburgh’s front 7 the first time they face them.
San Francisco +9 (-105) @ Seattle
Is Seattle 3 points better than anybody at this point? Their OL and offense is in shambles. This is also somewhat of a hedge against my 49ers under season bet (5.5 wins).
TEASER (+160):
DAL -7
MIA -10
CAR -7
CFL BONUS:
Redblacks -5.5 (-105)
UFC BONUS:
Antonio “Big Foot” Silva +385
Parlay at +780: Antonio Silva (+385), Pepey (-140), Erick Silva (+105), Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino (-1200)
Week 2 NFL Leans
NY Giants -4.5 (-105) vs New Orleans
Odell Beckham Jr. and Shepard should have 500 yards between them in this game vs a poor Saints defense. New Orleans’ offense isn’t as prolific on the road as it is in the dome, although the weather in NY should cooperate. The NYG CB play looked improved last week from any game that they played last year. I hate taking Eli, but I am pretty confident the Giants take it down here. The only question whether it’s a blowout or a close game.
Browns +7 (-115) vs Baltimore
This is now at 6.5. The Browns lost RGIII last week, who looked terrible and it goes to show what I know because I’d thought he’d be good for them (although no Josh Gordon hurts). Josh McCown is at least an OK professional QB (as Gowin says, “he’s a McCown…it’s like a “Niekro” in MLB). Baltimore will be missing Perriman again this game, and their offense isn’t great as it is and I except most of their games this year to be boring ass rock fights. Home teams are 55% against the spread in their home opener since 2003. I think the Browns keep it close but lose the game in the spectacular, soul crushing fashion that only the Cleveland Browns can do.
Jacksonville +3 (+105) @ San Diego
The Chargers just lost WR Keenan Allen and blew a 24-3 lead in the second half to the Chiefs who beat them in OT. They come home to a fanbase that doesn’t care much for them now as they are most likely moving to LA. And, it will be pretty hot in SD for this game but the Jags play in that weather too so they shouldn’t be too phased by it. This will probably be a one or two point game no one watches (except for those that know who you are).
Titans @ Lions Over 47.5 (-110)
These defenses stink, and both QBs are disposal machines. Mariota threw 2 TAINTs (TD After Interception) to the other team last week.
TEASER @ +240:
NYG -4.5
NYG/NO Over 53.5
Lions -6
DAL +3
NFL Week 1 Leans
Here are my leans for Week 1:
Browns +4.5 (-115) @ Philadelphia
This is now at +4. And me and Lou discussed on the podcast, we think Philadelphia is really going to stink this year, especially starting a banged up rookie QB in Week 1. They are a young team who isn’t 3 points better than anyone at the moment, nevermind the lowly Browns. Also, RGIII has looked pretty good in pre-season and with new coach and offensive guru Hue Jackson, the Browns should be able to move the ball and throw it downfield. This should be either a close, entertaining game or a close, boring game that sets the sport of American football back 5 years.
Minnesota at Tennessee Under 41 (-105)
With a second year QB (Mariota), and an old backup QB (Hill), and two teams whose wide receiving corps have an average fantasy football draft ranking of 9th round or lower, I expect alot of two and three tight end sets and an over/under of plays with 3 WR sets at 25.5 (the average NFL game, teams run around 110-125 plays). There is a hint that new MIN QB Sam Bradford might actually play in this one, despite being there for like, a week. Titans TE Delanie Walker is questionable with an illness, and he’s a big part of the Titans’ zone read playaction offense. And the game is played on natural grass. This should be the day’s most boring game.
Oakland at New Orleans Over 51 (-110)
Both teams have tremendous offensive talent, all healthy because it’s Week 1. Drew Brees, who just signed a new 2 year deal, does way better at home in the dome than he does on the road. So does his offensive teammates. New Orleans’ defense is the worst in the league, and Oakland’s is about average. This should be the most exciting game of the day.
Baltimore -3 (-115) vs Buffalo
Buffalo’s defense is missing DT Darius due to suspension and WR Sammy Watkins is banged up. They also have some questions at free safety, an important role in Rex Ryan’s scheme. From Greg Bedard below:
There is no more crucial position in Rex Ryan’s defense than the free safety, who is the nerve center for all communication and checks. Graham had his share of issues last season after converting from cornerback. Communication was a big issue for the defense last season, Ryan’s first in Buffalo, and that has to become a strength for the unit to take the next step.
I expect Baltimore to test the safeties early and often with Joe Flacco’s deep ball prowless; they also get some WRs back from injury (Perriman, Smith) they didn’t have last year. Buffalo also will have a hard time exploiting the Ravens’ weakness, CB depth, as their QB Tyrod Taylor is more of a zone read QB as supposed to a guy who can dink and dunk with precision accuracy. Also, Taylor was a Raven, so the front 7 had a good look at his running style during his time there. Betting the Ravens at home has done me well over the years, so going to stick with the trend on this one.
TEASER @ +330:
GB/JAX Over 48
Hou -6
KC -7
SEA -10.5
UFC BONUS:
Mickey Gall -300 (now at -400)
So Mickey Gall, who is 2-0 in his young career (with two submissions) faces former WWE wrestler Phil “CM Punk” Brooks this Saturday at UFC 203. I bet this the minute it came out, and as you can see, the action on Gall has poured in. It might even go to -420 (lol) before the fight. CM Punk, who has been training MMA for the last two years, has never fought a professional or amateur MMA fight and has only done a little Kempo in terms of formal martial arts training. The UFC is really only putting him out there to sell a PPV. According to MMA journalist Luke Thomas, CM Punk didn’t technically meet Ohio athletic commission’s stated requirements for licensure (yet they gave him one anyways; who says money doesn’t influence politics!). CM Punk has also had a hard time cutting weight to 170 (which he hasn’t weighed since high school!), which is always a bad sign at 37 years of age. At 23, Mickey Gall is a brown belt in jiu-jitsu from the Jim Miller camp in NJ, one known for its world class rear naked chokes and guillotines. That would be a prop to take the day of the fight (I would guess Gall to win by submission would be at around +150; I’ll probably take that too). If Mickey Gall loses this, I might retire from MMA betting as I clearly don’t know anything (or, the kid takes a paid dive and the sport is rigged).
PARLAY: Jessica Eye (-145) and Mickey Gall (-300) and Werdum (-300) and GGG (Boxing, -600) @ +240
2016 NFL Over/Unders
My Confidence is low but the picks are high. Not enough rooting for failure for my liking:
5) Jets Over 8
4) Chiefs Over 9.5
3) Falcons Under 7.5
2) Vikings Under 9.5
1) Lions Over 7
Also notable and not in any order:
Bengals Over 9.5
Washington Under 7.5
Saints Over 7
Rams Over 7.5
-Lou
2016 NFL Preview
It’s here, the initial podcast! Sean and Lou open up to discuss NFL Division Winners and Win Totals for the 2016 NFL Season:
https://soundcloud.com/miraclecovers/miraclecoverscom-2016-nfl-preview
Super Tuesday
Bernie Sanders to win Massachusetts +300
Bernie Sanders to win Oklahoma -200
Donald Trump to win Texas +500
I also wish I knew more about the site “PredictIt” – feel like I lost out on money here, especially betting Trump. He was at +3000 to win the GOP back in August!
Super Bowl 50 Preview
Carolina Panthers (17-1) vs Denver Broncos (14-4)
The story going into this game is two fold: the ascension of Cam Newton, and a possibly historic Denver defense. Ironically, the QB on the other side of the ball (Peyton Manning), isn’t the big story coming into this game, despite it most likely being his last game of a Hall of Fame career (he is +400 at 0.5 to throw a pass next year for those wondering). One could argue the Broncos defense got here in spite of Peyton Manning, instead of the other way around which it was for most of his career, especially with the Colts.
On this blog, we shit on the majority of these quarterbacks constantly. We’ve made money betting against some really bad QB play in the last decade, which is still pretty bad despite the rules helping the QBs out more. A McCown can throw for 300+ yards and a 112.7 QB rating vs a Super Bowl caliber defense in Carolina. Yet we still have Brian Hoyer starting playoff games.
There are really 6 “money” QBs out there who are really good and can win despite their team being bad around them: Brees, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Brady, Wilson, and Luck. 5 out of those 6 have won a title. But that has been stagnant for the last few years, and it would be refreshing to see another come into the club. I think Cam Newton is that guy. He won a title in college. He was a Heisman Trophy winner and a #1 pick. He’s likely this year’s MVP. He’s grown and matured into a solid game manager with a killer cadence and is always involved in the game and getting his team’s spirits up. The guy has become a leader now and combine that with his amazing athletic ability and size, I just think now is *his* time.
He has this incredible year despite losing Kelvin Benjamin, which I thought was such a devastating injury I jumped to bet Carolina’s under (8.5) before the year (oops)! Ted Ginn is catching TD passes week after week (and still dropping them, too….him to drop a pass is -130 for those wondering). Jericho Cotchery is catching passes for him. It’s like my 2007 fantasy team all over again. And still yet, Cam has had a career year and Carolina has been the best and most consistent team in football.
If Jonathan Stewart was healthy all year long, they might of won all of their games before this one because their schedule was so soft. They are 90% healthy. They have the best LBs. They have the best RB. They have the 2nd best TE and OL. They have the best CB in form all year. They’ve been the second best ATS all year (Minnesota was #1). Even Ron Rivera has coached well, and perfectly managed Jonathan Stewart’s health down the stretch. I just think that we are looking at an all-time team and we may have missed that because, on average, the quality of the football in the NFL this year was pretty shitty.
The main question is: WILL THEY COVER THE SPREAD THOUGH? I see this game in two ways: either Carolina gets up 24-0 early and crushes the Broncos, or Carolina blows a lead late and Denver miracle covers. I don’t think Denver can win the game because of the edge at QB, despite Denver having the better front 7 overall.
Denver’s defense has been historic in terms of passing yards allowed and sacks. Lou thinks they are the best we’ve seen in the modern era since the 2000 Ravens (although I say they are 4th behind the 2000 Ravens, the 2002 Bucs, and the 2013 Seahawks). Their team was really built to defeat teams like the Patriots, the Packers…..teams with various skill guys in the short controlled passing game. They held Green Bay to 77 yards passing! However, in 3 games vs “mobile” QBs this year: Kansas City (twice) and Minnesota, offenses averaged 122 yards per game and 1 rushing TD per game. QB’s averaged around 24 yards running a game. And the Chiefs especially used their RBs in the passing game, with some guy named Charcandrick West catching 3 passes for 92 yards and a TD. The Patriots hit the Broncos for big plays to their RBs in both of their games, and should have called more (but when you have Branden Bolden and James White, I can see why they didn’t call more of those plays).
When you have a mobile QB who can also actually throw, he is hard to sack as well as his running ability “stretches” out the front 7, exerting pressure on good defensive “gap” discipline. It’s like in soccer how a good passing team can widen you out, or in basketball has a great shooting team opens up the middle of the floor. I just think that Denver has problems with these types of schemes because the DEs like Ware and Miller want to go up field to a spot. They aren’t the “hybrid” type of ends like NE or Seattle has, and can be at times undisciplined in containing the pocket. Add to the fact that Carolina has the best RB stable in the game, so those same ends and outside LBs have to honor that in the zone read scheme too. I expect a lot of reverses, triple option play action, and wide passes to the flats and wheel routes from Carolina as they hope to catch Denver “looking” in the backfield spying on Cam. The other adjustment I see by Denver is to blitz a shit ton….but that is risky as if they don’t get there, Cam can escape and run. It’s one thing for the “rush” to get to the QB…but with Cam, it’s another thing to “get there”, as Lou would say.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dui8z0msqzc
Denver has excellent CBs and should have no issue covering the average at best WR core of Carolina. But I just think because of the quarterback’s dynamic play ability, the dam could eventually break, especially to someone lower on the depth chart, like a Corey Brown (who caught 7 balls last game, and 11 the game before).
The only other worry by Carolina: they kinda blow second half leads. Taking Denver in the 2nd half, whatever the number, isn’t a bad play and hedge. But, another reason I love the Panthers in this matchup: I get to bet against Peyton Manning in a big game. One of my best Super Bowls was in 2009 Colts vs Saints. I expect plenty of Manning face, even if this is his last hurrah and that can be galvanizing for a team (see: 2012 Ravens, 2010 Celtics, 2015 Juventus) for a run towards a title game.
Denver also covered in the “Madden 16” simulation, losing 28-24.
So, the pick for me: Carolina -6 at +105. Denver may have an all-time defense, but Carolina has an all-time team.
Now for the props:
Peyton Manning Total INTs thrown Over 0.5 -225
One of my favorites.
Ted Ginn Jr Total Rushing Yards Over -5.5 +110
We’ll see a reverse or two by Carolina to keep the Denver edge guys honest vs Cam’s Zone Read attack.
Total Receiving Yards Mike Tolbert Over 7.5 -115
Total Receptions Over 1.5 Jonathan Stewart EVEN
Jonathan Stewart Anytime TD EVEN
Bullish RBs for Carolina.
How Many Successful Field Goals in the Game? 2 +325
Total Successful Field Goals Over 3.5 +130
Good FG kickers for both teams.
First Scoring Play of the Game: Panthers Safety +2000
I really should bet the “safety” angle every year. I remember the joy in his face from Lou’s boy “Cheese” as he hit this bet in 2013:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tBP_t808xEI
Will the Panthers score in every quarter? Yes +215
Total Receptions for Corey Brown Over 2.5 -150
Total Yards Corey Brown Over 39.5 -115
I like Corey Brown’s matchup vs a banged up Chris Harris Jr. I also think he and Cam have gelled nicely in the last 6 weeks of the year and has been the guy to fill some of the “production” gap lost by Kelvin Benjamin.
How Many Times will “Dab” or “Dabbing” be mentioned by the announcers? Over 2 at EVEN
I feel like I am freerolling this one, especially if Carolina and Cam get rolling.
Will Mike Carey be wrong about a challenge? +125
This is free money here, he’s wrong like 75% of the time!
Who will the Super Bowl QB thank first? God at +200
If you think Cam wins the MVP, also bet this one. He always thanks God first in every speech he’s ever given as his dad is a preacher. Manning will NOT thank god…he always thanks his teammates first in everything.
MVP:
Cam Newton -130 (now at -150!)
Peyton Manning +275
I bet both the QBs to win the MVP every year; I feel you’ll hit this 75% of the time in your life. Luke Kuechly at +1200 and Owen Daniels at +6600 aren’t bad “reaches” for me here….but if the Broncos *do* win, Peyton Manning will be the MVP, even if he goes 10-30 with 200 yards and 1 TD with 3 INTs.
UFC BONUS:
Jake Rosholt +135
Jake Rosholt to win by decision +150
