Category: NFL
NFL O/U Win Total Chart
Below are results of snake-draft O/Us. When the season is a bit more underway these will be color-coded to see which are tracking well/poorly.
| VT | Gowin | Darts | JaPan |
| Pats u4.5 | Falcons o9.5 | Broncos o5.5 | Packers o9.5 |
| Chiefs o11.5 | Cardinals o6.5 | Cowboys u10.5 | 49ers o11.5 |
| Dolphins o9.5 | Giants u6.5 | Bills u10.5 | Bengals u10.5 |
| Commanders o6.5 | Steelers u8.5 | Titans o6.5 | Rams o8.5 |
| Jags o8.5 | Colts u8.5 | Jets o9.5 | Browns u8.5 |
| Vikings u6.5 | Lions o10.5 | Raiders o6.5 | Seahawks o7.5 |
| Panthers u5.5 | Ravens o10.5 | Bucs o8.5 | Saints u7.5 |
| Eagles o10.5 | Bears o8.5 | Chargers o8.5 | Texans o9.5 |
NFL Week 2
Chicago at Houston OVER 45 -110
Two exciting, fun QBs. I wish I could bet on Caleb Williams to throw a TD… to the other team because he’ll turn the ball over a lot as he learns; but he’ll make some plays too. Houston goes as Mixon goes; he got 30 carries last week but unsure that will last with his health history.
Jacksonville -3 (-120)
I am gonna bet against the Browns until they bench DeShaun. What a wanker.
Seattle at New England UNDER 39 -115
Two good, young defenses lead by former DCs. Also taking Total Field Goals OVER 2.5 -200.
PARLAY +479: JAX ML -165; KC ML -270; SF ML -230; CHI at HOU OVER 45 -110
TEASER +150: LAR +1; HOU -6.5; KC -6
PROPS: Caleb Williams Pass INT OVER 0.5 -167; Joe Mixon ANYTIME TD -167; Jordan Mason ANYTIME TD -167; Anthony Richardson Rushing Yards OVER 39.5 -125; Malik Willis OVER Carries 6.5 -102; Alvin Kamara Over 4.5 Receptions
DFS:
Week 1 NFL
NE at CIN UNDER 40 (EVEN)
also took NE Team Total UNDER 16.5…NE is missing 1 lineman and another is questionable so I am also betting all Bengals DL to “Record a sack – YES” prop lol
HOU at IND OVER 48.5 -110
Fun game in dome with cool young QBs
DEN +6 (-105)
Should be 3-4.5 IMO
NO -3.5 (-115)
Derek Carr sucks but the Panthers suck more.
TEASER +150: BUF -6.5, CIN -7.5, NYG +1.5
PROPS: Kurt Cousins INT OVER 0.5 -120; Marvin Harrison Jr Anytime TD +175; Dalton Kincaid Receptions OVER 4.5 -165; Total Rushing Yards Justin Fields OVER 45.5 +105
DFS:
Ongoing NFL O/U Draft
VT – Patriots Under 4.5
Allen – Falcons Over 9.5
Darts – Broncos Over 5.5
Pan – Packers Over 9.5
Pan – 49ers Over 11.5
Darts – Cowboys Under 10.5
Allen – Cards Over 6.5
VT – Chiefs Over 11.5
VT – Dolphins Over 9.5
Allen – Giants Under 6.5
Darts – Bills Under 10.5
Pan – Bengals Under 10.5
Pan – Rams Over 8.5
Darts – Titans Over 6.5
Allen – Steelers Under 8.5
Van – Commanders Over 6.5
Van – Jags Over 8.5
Allen – Colts Under 8.5
Darts – Jets Over 9.5
Pan – Browns Under 8.5
Pan – Seahawks Over 7.5
Darts – Raiders Over 6.5
Allen – Lions Over 10.5
Van – Vikings Under 6.5
Van – Panthers Under 5.5
Allen – Ravens Over 10.5
Darts – Buccaneers Over 8.5
Pan – Saints Under 7.5
Pan – Texans Over 9.5
Darts – Chargers Over 8.5
Allen – Bears Over 8.5
Van – Eagles Over 10.5
NFL Preseason Bets
Here are my OVER/UNDERs and other preseason bets for the upcoming 2024 NFL Season:
AFC:
New England UNDER 4.5 +115
The Patriots continue a long tradition of great dynasties (NFL 90s Dallas; NBA Jordan’s Bulls being examples) going to absolute shit in the 5 years after they end. With Belichick’s firing, ahem, resignation and “mutual” parting of ways in 2023 after last’s year dismal run, this organization has been run like a clown show. Their new head coach is green and it shows. They have spent a ton of free agent money on players that either are too old (Henry), too hurt (Judon, who they ended up trading away because he was pissed at his contract), and suck (PooPoo Smith Schuster). They have the 2nd worst offensive line in football behind Carolina, and lost their best defensive lineman in the preseason (Barmore). Drake Maye, the 3rd overall pick, has shown flashes but he probably won’t start until late October…that is if starting QB Jacoby Brissett doesn’t get killed first. I will be betting a lot of Pats team UNDER totals and starting whoever defense is against them in fantasy until that happens.
New York Jets UNDER 9.5 +125
Yes, the Jets have a top 10 receiver in Wilson, a top 5 running back in Hall, arguably the best pass rushing defensive line in football with the best cornerback in football (Sauce). But they have issues because in the end, they are still the Jets: the coach is in a “lame duck” season where he must make the playoffs at least to keep his job, never a good thing in football. Their offensive line was the worst in the league last year so one of the ways they bolstered that is signing former All-Pro Tyron Smith. Is he good? Yes. Has he also not played 16 games in a season since 2015? Also yes. They do have an…aging..HOF QB in Aaron Rodgers… who in his last team picture looks like is one bad step out of bed away from breaking his back. And, in perfect Jets fashion, they traded for a top 5 DE in Hasan Riddick… only for him to sit out of camp because he wants a new deal and may do a “Le’Veon Bell” and not play until week 11… or even not at all. They also have a tough schedule… I have them projected at 7 wins with all of these issues plus facing a tough NFC West and tougher AFC South this year. The only threat for me: if (and when) the Raiders tank and WR Davante Adams forces a trade to be with his old QB.
Miami to win AFC East Division +275
The line is way too high, should be +175 from the team with, IMO, the best offense in football. Them and the Bills will be neck and neck and really the only thing that hampers them is their defensive play on the road and the fact Tua is one knock on the head away from his career ending.
Baltimore Ravens OVER 10.5 -130
I have loved the Ravens’ acquisitions in the offseason especially with Derrick Henry who, along with Keaton Mitchell (who they get back later in the year), should make the Ravens’ mesh running attack tough to contend with. They have good defense and special teams, and Lamar has something to prove this season. Let’s just hope John Harbaugh doesn’t fuck it up.
Denver Broncos OVER 5.5 -110
They have turned over the roster to mostly young players, but favorable schedule with weak division outside of KC. Sean Payton is a good coach and they competed fairly well last year despite the personnell challenges and were held back mostly due to Russell Wilson sucking balls. Bo Nix has actually looked good in the preseason, and he should be good right away considering he was in college for 8 years as college football’s real life version of Paul Blake from Unnecessary Roughness.
Houston Texans to Make Playoffs -200
Their offense looked awesome in the preseason, especially the WR core. Joe mixon is a top 10 back…when healthy (a big if to be fair). They are in tough division but Stroud looks like the real deal and is probably the next QB who will trigger a lockout by the owners because he’s gonna get paid once his contract is up. Let’s just hope there isn’t the NFL “sophomore” slump.
NFC:
Dallas Cowboys UNDER 10.5 -200
Another lame duck coach situation with Mike McCarthy who needs to at LEAST make the NFC Title Game, and not lose badly, to stay on. They also have a ton of issue with aging offensive line and running backs, and players with contract albatrosses (Dak, Micah) who may lose faith quickly. Add first place schedule, and event Cowboys’ yearly fail, recipe for disaster.
Green Bay Packers OVER 10.5 +135
Took the alt line on this as I have them projected to 12 wins. The Lions will have a hangover year after the rungood they got last year pushing their luck; variance gets us all in the end and the Lions going for it on 4th down all the time will be no different than shoving all the time preflop with Ace King. Jordan Love also looked awesome at the end of last year and has a new deal in an offense catered for him now, the WR and TE core is balanced, and the defense can create turnovers and sacks. They do lack RB depth though and I will say if the Saints tank, they should target RB Alvin Kamara to replace the passing back role they lost with Aaron Jones in free agency. Packers +800 to be #1 NFC seed could be tasty; the 49ers’ health is a huge wild card.
Philadelphia Eagles To Make Playoffs -260
Crappy division, they now have Saquon Barkley… they should make the playoffs.
MLB Over/Unders
Another year, another round of Regular Season Win Totals. We are a little over 48 hours out from first pitch in Queens, so these lines are essentially concrete. Now I missed the Dodgers and Padres because of their Korea adventure but Ill see if over the next couple days we can figure something out there. First things first, the numbers…as always, heavy juice noted…
Arizona D’backs – 84.5
Atlanta Braves – 101.5
Baltimore Orioles – 90.5
Boston Red Sox – 77.5
Chicago Cubs – 84.5
Chicago White Sox – 61.5
Cincinnati Reds – 82.5
Cleveland Guardians – 80.5
Colorado Rockies – 60.5
Detroit Tigers – 81.5
Houston Astros – 92.5
KC Royals – 73.5 (O -130)
LA Angels – 71.5
LA Dodgers –
Miami Marlins – 77.5 (U -130)
Milwaukee Brewers – 77.5
Minnesota Twins – 86.5
NY Mets – 81.5
NY Yankees – 92.5
Oakland A’s – 57.5 (O -130)
Philadelphia Phillies – 90.5
Pittsburgh Pirates – 76.5
SD Padres –
SF Giants – 84.5
Seattle Mariners – 87.5
St Louis Cards – 84.5
TB Rays – 85.5
Texas Rangers – 88.5
Toronto Blue Jays – 87.5
Washington Nationals – 66.5
How far we have come…in years past Vegas would pick out a very likely shitty team, boost up its win total by a tick and then throw (U -155) juice at you. But now only a handful of (-130s)…I can tell a lot of my action this year will be NC Central themed. Back in a day or 2 with the picks…
Super Bowl LVIII Props ‘n Plays
Super Bowl in Las Vegas…time for some props!
Christian McCaffrey Receptions OVER 4.5 -136
Been hammering this one all playoffs; can also see it hitting with KC’s good secondary and Purdy will be checking down a lot.
Christian McCaffrey (-334) and Travis Kelce (-126) to score Touchdown +135
Parlaying both with these TD machines.
Brock Purdy Rushing Yards OVER 13.5 -114
He scrambled well in the playoff games previous, and probably will have to move as KC secondary will make him hold the ball longer than usual to get him to move.
Will there be a Missed Field Goal by SF Kicker Jake Moody – YES +240
He’s been shaky all year.
Isiah Pacheco Carries OVER 16.5 -104
He should get the ball in this game, even with McKinnon coming back.
Will there be a Successful 2-PT Conversion Attempt in the Game? YES +240
Everybody’s going for 2 these days
Brock Purdy Interceptions OVER 0.5 -157
Purdy also probably has the most dropped INTs I have seen this year.
First to Score TD: Kelce +600, Pacheco +600, Purdy +3000, Kyle Juszczyk +3500
First Offensive Play of Game – Pass +120
GAME PICK:
Chiefs +2 -105
Also teasing with the OVER 47.5. Shanahan’s shaky record in big games, especially in the 4th quarter, KC having the edge at QB, and could be Andy Reid’s last game. I’d also say, if you are taking Travis Kelce to propose to Taylor Swift after the game (+820), parlay that with KC ML for maximum value.
Championship Weekend
Ravens -3* -115
Now at -4…. Mahomes is amazing but I think the lack of WRs catches (no pun intended) up to him today. The Chiefs also lose OL Thuney which will be huge against a very good Ravens front 7 that Mahomes will be running away from a lot today. Ravens also get back CB Marlon Humphrey and TE Mark Andrews. Lou likes the UNDER 44 in this one. I just hope Harbaugh doesn’t fuck this up with some wacky game decision. Props: Mark Andrews Receptions OVER 3.5 +127 and Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards OVER 29.5 -120.
San Francisco -7
Not taking the line because it’s too big on both sides and we know how Detroit games go…but I do like the OVER at 51.5 -110* as here should be points in this one. Props I like: Jared Goff INT OVER 0.5 -152, Deebo Samuel Rushing Yards UNDER 9.5 -114, and Christian McCaffrey Receptions OVER 4.5 -137.
TEASER +170: KC +4, KC/BAL UNDER 44, SF -7.5, SF/DET OVER 51.5
NFL Divisional Round pt 2
Tampa Bay +6.5 -110*
Now at 6. I hate betting ON the Lions… and hate betting against them too. Tampa should keep it close with their defense, but their undoing could be the red zone offense so also taking FG OVER 3.5 Prop +104.
Buffalo -2.5 -110
This is another tough game to bet. Should be a defensive back and forth. I do like Rashee Rice Receptions OVER 6.5 -105 and Dalton Kincaid Receptions OVER 4.5 +105.
Divisional Round pt 1
Houston +9.5 (-105)*
The Ravens come into the playoffs as the hottest team in football… but they always seem to find ways to keep teams close in these big games. Harbaugh also doesn’t always make the best game decisions. Stroud has looked like he should of been the #1 pick, and the Texans have also drafted well around him. If the Texans can stop the run, they will have a chance in this game.
San Francisco -9.5 (-110)*
Shanahan owns Lafleur head to head, and I think as good as Jordan Love has played, he’ll not has as many opportunities off play action as he did against Dallas as I am sure the 49ers aren’t gonna have two down lineman like the Cowboys did for most of the game letting Aaron Jones run wild. I also have for a prop: Brandon Aiyuk +120 for ANYTIME TD* and Christian McCaffrey Receptions OVER 4.5 +102*.
