Category: NFL
2025 NFL Over/Under Totals
Miami Dolphins UNDER 8.5 -160
Now at -210, I have also seen 7.5 at other books. Got this early before the Ramsey trade to the Steelers as I suspect Mike McDonald (who Ramsey said that he wanted to play for a team “where there’s a lot of respect for the head coach) is in a “lame duck” coach year as 2nd favorite to get fired behind Brian Daboll. Tyreek Hill will want out at the first sign of no playoffs. They face six 2024 playoff teams in the second half of the year, and finish in New England. And if Tua gets another serious concussion? He may not play again. Alternate line UNDER 6.5 at +150 is definitely in play.
Dallas Cowboys UNDER 7.5 +130
Got this in before the Micha Parsons trade and it’s now at -150; I had them at 5.5 wins even WITH him on the team. Prescott one injury/ string of bad games away for fans to want Joe Milton III out there. Cee Dee is the next favorite to be traded lol. They have a Schottenheimer coaching their team, and they finish the year facing 4 out of 5 2024 playoff teams. I also put a little on UNDER 6.5 +200. Jerry Jones is a donk and you should just keep betting against his operations while he’s still alive.
Seattle Seahawks OVER 8.5 +115
The NFC West faces the shitty AFC South this year so easy going for all teams in that division (a la last year and NFC North). Seattle looks to have a good defense, and maybe a dynamic running game if Walker III stays healthy and Milroe is used properly in packages. Cooper Kupp health will be key for passing game. Darnold is as average a QB you can find but good enough to beat up on weaker part of the schedule.
Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 8.5 EVEN
Aaron Rodgers is one bad night’s rest away from hitting the IR. D.J. Metcalf is a good player but also has his injury history. HOF DL Cam Heyward held out and may not play week 1. Tomlin is due to be sub-500 as he potentially winds down his fantastic Steelers career (maybe to Washington?).
New England Patriots UNDER 8.5 -115
Everyone is high on the Patriots this year, but they still have their personnel issues despite Mike Vrabel coming in and fixing the fundamentals. The OL is barely improved and still bottom 10. Drake Maye can make big plays but also make big misses and turnovers. They have 7 WR on the roster… usually means you have none. They will run the ball well this year with Maye/Gibson/Stevenson… and now their new weapon TreVeyon Henderson, who we at miracle covers will be betting a lot on his receiving and rushing props this year. The schedule starts tough, but I think they finish the year well after the early struggles as Vrabel mold the team to his style. They could cover alot this year… just not win games as much because in certain machups, they just don’t have the horses to compete.
Carolina Panthers OVER -145
Now at -160… they finished the season well last year… Bryce Young is growing in Canales’ scheme, and they play in the second worst division in all of football.
Denver Broncos OVER 9.5 -110.
The defense is good enough to win the division. The only threat is Bo Nix and the sophomore slump hiccups. But Peyton can manage it, especially if they can run the football.
Other thoughts: I will be betting a lot of Bengals game total OVERs this year. Their offense looks great after resigning everybody. Unfortunately the defense sucks and they will have to win every game 45-42. I also have Puka Nacua receptions OVER 104.5 -110 as he welcomes Davante Adams on a Rams team who could win the NFC West. Lou likes Drake London Reception Yards OVER 1100.5 -115. I also am giddy to bet against Bill Belichick every week, we have the UNC UNDER 7.5 -135 as he is now 8-26 while dating the 24 year old. Just playing the math there.
MLB O/Us 2025
Going to do my best to squeeze something smart out here, we will see. I have not looked at any of these yet and we are like 36 hours from first pitch. First things first, the actual #s…
- ARZ – 86.5 (o -150)
- A’s – 71.5 (o -165)
- ATL – 93.5
- BAL – 86.5 (o -130)
- BOS – 86.5 (o -145)
- CHC – 86.5
- CWS – 54.5
- CIN – 79.5 (o -145)
- CLE – 81.5
- COL – 59.5
- DET – 83.5 (o -130)
- HOU – 86.5
- KC – 82.5 (o -130)
- LAA – 71.5
- LAD – 104.5 (o -140)
- MIA – 63.5 (u -130)
- MIL – 83.5 (o -140)
- MIN – 84.5
- NYM – 90.5
- NYY – 88.5
- PHI – 90.5
- PIT – 75.5 (o -130)
- SD – 85.5
- SFG – 80.5 (o -130)
- SEA – 85.5 (o -130)
- StL – 75.5
- TB – 81.5
- TEX – 85.5 (o -135)
- TOR – 78.5 (o -150)
- WSH – 71.5 (o -140)
Ill post impressions and picks in next post.
Super Bowl Props n Plays
Super Bowl MVP:
Patrick Mahomes +115; Saquon Barkley +275
Receptions:
Dallas Goedert OVER 4.5 -121; Hollywood Brown UNDER 3.5 +102; Kelce Catches on First Drive OVER 0.5 -140
Rushing:
Jalen Hurts Long Rush OVER 15.5 -130; Saquon Barkley Long Rush OVER 23.5 -110; Patrick Mahomes Rushing Carries OVER 6 -122; Kareem Hunt Rushing Yards OVER 40 -114
Touchdowns:
Jalen Hurts + Saquon Barkley ANYTIME TD PARLAY +110; Noah Gray NYTIME TD +450; Xavier Worthy ANYTIME TD +130
Penalties and Game Flow:
Distance of Longest Penalty OVER 15.5 -130; Eagles 1H/ Chiefs Win +650; Mike Danna Sacks OVER 0.5 +235; Successful 2PT Conversion YES +160
Game:
OVER 48.5 -110; TEASER -125: PHI +1 & OVER 48.5
I do think KC wins in a close one as they have all year, preferably in the 2nd half as I have Philly 1st H and KC to win the game; only 1 of their games this year was won by more than 10 points.
Week 18 NFL
Las Vegas +7 (-117)
Chargers have nothing to play for, will be resting players. Also, Raiders have actually been pretty good ATS this year, despite sucking IRL.
MIN at DET UNDER 56.5 (-107)
Expect this to be played like a playoff game with #1 seed at stake.
Buffalo -3 (-129)
I bought the half point; if Pats win today, Mayo should be fired immediately after the game.
PARLAY +201: TB ML -1600, BUF ML -190, LV +7
PROPS: Reggie Gilliam Anytime TD +150; Quintin Morris Anytime TD+800; Kyler Murray Rushing Yards OVER 44 -121; Kyler Murray Anytime TD +110; Davante Adams Anytime TD +110; Mike Evans Receiving Yards Bands 91-100 +450 & 101-110 +600; Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards OVER 87 -114; Clyde Edwards-Helaire Rushing Yards OVER 33 -118; Jayden Daniels Rushing Yards UNDER 47.5 -105
DFS:
Week 17 NFL
New Orleans +2 (-110)
Should be a pick, overreaction to last week’s ass kicking to the Packers. The Raiders are in tank mode.
Titans at Jacksonville OVER 38 (-110)
These defenses stink.
NY Giants +7 (-106)
Yes the Giants suck but the Colts aren’t 7 point better than anybody right now.
TEASER +150: NO +2, PHI -7.5, GB +1
PARLAY +285: PHI ML -375, NO ML +107, BUF -600, TB -600
PROPS: Chig Okonkwo Receptions AT LEAST 5 +110; De’Von Achane Receptions AT LEAST 4 -122; Tank Bigsby AT LEAST 1 TD +210; Dorian Thompson-Robinson Rushing Yards OVER 30 -114; Malik Nabers Receiving Yards OVER 73 +119; Tyler Huntley Passing Yards UNDER 160.5 -114; James Cook ANYTIME TD -125
DFS:
NFL Week 16
Buffalo -14 (-109)
The Pats suck. Mayo needs to go. And McDermott loves sticking it to New England.
LA Rams -2.5 (-119)
The Jets stink. We have Rams +525 to win NFC West and it’s in sight.
DET at CHI UNDER 47.5 (-110)
Detroit is banged up, it’s gonna be cold and windy, and Chicago’s offense sucks. This one could be 31-3 or some shit.
TEN at IND OVER 42.5 (-110)
These offenses will help these defenses score. Plus everyone is going to try and get good film because most of these guys on both teams gonna be cut or traded next year.
PROPS: Malik Nabers Receptions AT LEAST 7 -124; Hunter Henry Receptions AT LEAST 5 +118; Anthony Richardson Rushing Yards OVER 48 -113; Patrick Taylor AT LEAST 1 Rushing TD -125; Bryce Young Passing Yards UNDER 215 -115; Dorian Thompson-Robinson Rushing Yards OVER 30 -114
DFS:
Week 15 NFL
New Orleans +7.5 (-109)
Saints have the backup QB Baener going, but Washington is a young team that keeps teams in games way too much.
Carolina -2.5 (-115)
Carolina has been playing well and have a chance against this shitty Cowboys team.
Indianapolis at Denver OVER 43.5 (-110)
Colts OVERs have hit 3 out of the last 4, and Denver’s secondary is a little banged up (which is why they gave up 441 to Jameis a few weeks ago).
TEASER +150: ARI -6, CIN -6, MIA +2.5
PROPS: James Conner AT LEAST 1 TD -200; De’Von Achane Receptions OVER 4.5 -112; DeMario Douglas Receptions OVER 4.5 +117; Khalil Shakir Receptions OVER 5.5 +114; Bo Nix Rushing Yards OVER 15.5 -110; Jayden Daniels Rushing Yards UNDER 40.5 -110
DFS:
Week 14 NFL
Miami -6 (-110)
The Jets stink, Breece Hall is out, the Jets say they will draft a QB next year which is news that will piss off Rodgers, and there are reports Davante Adams already wants to leave.
Jacksonville at Tennessee OVER 40.5 (-110)
These defenses stink. And the offenses are so careless with the ball, they may give their defenses TAINTs.
Cleveland +6 (-105)
Jameis will giveth and Jameis will taketh away. Plus Pittsburgh, outside of Kansas City (who has led by more than 17 points for only 11 minutes this year despite being 11-1!), plays close games every week.
TEASER +150: NO -5.5, TB -6.5, MIA -6
PROPS: Wilson + Winston AT LEAST 1 INT +200; Devon Achane Receptions OVER 4.5 -112; Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards OVER 53.5 -121; Dawson Knox AT LEAST 1 TD +200; Kyler Murray Rushing Yards OVER 26.5 -112; Brock Bowers Receptions OVER 7.5 +100
DFS:
Week 13 NFL
Minnesota -3.5 (-102)
Lack of depth catching up to Arizona.
Indianapolis at New England OVER 42.5 (-114)
This game will be all OVER the place.
Houston -3.5 (-105)
Texans struggling, but they have to beat this shitty Jaguars team, right?
Carolina +6.5 (-110)
They have been playing better as of late.
SF at BUF UNDER 44.5 -110
It’s gonna snow and SF is banged up
TEASER +150: SEA +1, BUF -6, WAS -6
PROPS: Hunter Henry Receptions AT LEAST 5 +110; Kirk Cousins AT LEAST 1 INT -112; Derrick Henry + Saquon Barkley AT LEAST 1 TD +110; Puka Nacua Receptions OVER 6.5 -107; Alec Pierce Receiving Yards AT LEAST 45 +112
DFS:
Pre-Thanksgiving Week NFL O/U Update
Update #2 on NFL Win Total O/U. Same deal as the first one, # in parenthesis is the live O/U. Color coding of green = good, red = poor, purple = steady. These are rounded a bit if there’s heavy juice…Gowin was the slim leader over JaPan in the first update but now that role has flipped. Van, Gowin and Darts are all virtually locked-in to at least 2 Ls where Pan only has 1. Pan, tho, has several teams whose final total would be considered a coin-flip at this point. There is a universe where everyone finishes 5-3..Happy Holidays.
| VT | Gowin | Darts | JaPan |
| Pats u4.5 (4.5) | Falcons o9.5 (9.5) | Broncos o5.5 (9.5) | Packers o9.5 (11.5) |
| Chiefs o11.5 (14) | Cardinals o6.5 (9) | Cowboys u10.5 (6.5) | 49ers o11.5 (8) |
| Dolphins o9.5 (8) | Giants u6.5 (3.5) | Bills u10.5 (13) | Bengals u10.5 (8) |
| Commanders o6.5 (10) | Steelers u8.5 (11) | Titans o6.5 (5.5) | Rams o8.5 (8) |
| Jags o8.5 (4) | Colts u8.5 (8) | Jets o9.5 (5.5) | Browns u8.5 (4.5) |
| Vikings u6.5 (12) | Lions o10.5 (14) | Raiders o6.5 (4) | Seahawks o7.5 (9) |
| Panthers u5.5 (4.5) | Ravens o10.5 (11.5) | Bucs o8.5 (9) | Saints u7.5 (7) |
| Eagles o10.5 (13.5) | Bears o8.5 (5.5) | Chargers o8.5 (10.5) | Texans o9.5 (10) |
