Category: NFL
Week 9 NFL
Indy at Green Bay Under 54 (-110)
This started at 53 and is rising. I just think these two teams will fail enough where it won’t be the fantasy football tout fest this O/U makes it out to be. Green Bay’s defense is allowing 20.3 ppg at home. The referee, Tony Corrente, is also favorable to the under: the under has a 77-55 record under his stripes. Usually means he keeps the flag in the pocket, and that helps defenses.
San Diego -4 (-110)
This started at -5.5. The Chargers’ games have been the most exciting all year…..with the only one being an ass whuppin’ they gave to Jacksonville at home in Week 2. They have been great against the number as well. Tennessee is coming off a long week and travels into hot San Diego coming off a win vs the Jaguars. All Marcus Mariota does is take huge dumps on the road; with an average road QB Rating of 63.3. The Titans losing these types of games are why Lou and I refuse to bet on who will win on their crappy division.
TEASER +260:
Kansas City -7.5
Green Bay -7.5
Denver +1
Minnesota -6
UFC BONUS:
Tony Ferguson +120
Parlay @ +250: Alexa Grasso (-550), Marco Polo Reyes (-175), Erik Perez (-210), Enrique Barzola (-550)
NFL Week 8
We have been hot here on the site the last 2 weeks, going perfect again in Week 7! Let’s keep the momentum going and get hot again like Blake Bortles’ completion percentage as he’s trailing by 21 in the 4th quarter.
New Orleans vs Seattle Over 47 (-115)
This is now at 48.5 and climbing, especially now that today it’s been revealed that Seattle SS Kam Chancellor is out again. Seattle gave up big passing plays at home 2 weeks ago to Julio Jones due to miscommunication on the sideline thanks to Chancellor’s backup, causing Richard Sherman to lose his shit on the sideline. Yes, Seattle only scored 6 points last week in a 6-6 tie in Arizona (funny story: I feel asleep during the game Sunday and woke up in a semi-drunken stupor at 2am to see the score and I thought the game was still going on until I saw the “F/OT” next to the score. Embarrassing). But that was a “rock fight” division game that involved two teams (with crappy kickers) who know each other pretty well. The Saints are an out-of-division opponent who has a crappy defense but a fantastic offense, especially at home, and anytime an under is below 50 when they play in the Superdome, you should take it. This should be an up and down game, and super fun to watch.
Minnesota Vikings -4 (-100)
The Vikings are coming off a lackluster performance in Philly last week. Head Coach Mike Zimmer after the game used the “s” word: SOFT. Whenever a locker room hears that from a head coach in the media, it usually makes the team pretty motivated and pissed the next week. They go into Chicago to play the lowly Bears, who get Jay Cutler back after missing a few weeks with a thumb injury. That might actually make them WORSE. He’s one hit on that throwing thumb away from us again seeing the “Matt Barkley Experience”, which is like if you combined QB play with the sophistication of a snuff film. I expect the Vikings to kick the shit out of this team, even if starting RB Jerick McKinnon doesn’t play.
Cleveland Browns ML +125
Yep, you read that right. Cleveland hosts the “almost as shitty” 2-5 Jets this weekend, who will be without C Nick Mangold, CB Buster Skrine, and QB Geno Smith (actually, that might be a good thing for the Jets). Cleveland hasn’t won a game all year, and we might not know who their QB will be until Sunday, but out of the rest of their schedule, this is probably one of the very few games they’ll have a chance to win. Hell, even 6th QB Kevin Hogan kept the game close last week vs Cincy and almost covered the +11. Add the good vibes of the Cavs hoisting a banner, and the Indians in the World Series, and the Browns might finally get that elusive win this week vs the Jets’ Ryan Fitzpatrick’s salty “they never believed in me” offense. The Browns are +325 to go 0-16 as of now, if you are wondering.
Keep eye on this space as I will add some political props via PredictIt, that I am on, as the fail election comes closer.
TEASER (+140):
NE -5.5
OAK +1
DEN -6
NFL Week 7
Not many big leans this week after a perfect Week 6.
Oakland +1 (-115)
Oakland is coming off a loss against Kansas City at home last week, and travels to Jacksonville to face the lowly Jaguars, who are coming off an inspiring 17-16 win at Chicago. Oakland offensively has averaged more points on the road at home, and considering what a shit hole the Oakland Coliseum is, I don’t blame them for playing more inspired football on the road. The Jaguars should be better with the talent they have in a division that is up for grabs in the AFC South. Lou and I have always said that this is because of their crappy coaching. After last week’s “win” vs Chicago, Head Coach Gus Bradley in his post game speech said that wins over (shitty) teams like Chicago is how you “establish your legacy”. He didn’t even swear, instead saying “that’s how you man the ‘f’ up, men!”. Methinks the lads are rolling their eyes if the HC thinks that wins over shitty teams are how you establish your “legacy”. Gimme the Raiders and the points, here.
New Orleans at Kansas City Under 50.5 (-110)
The Saints high powered offense at home, doesn’t travel so well on the road (minus John Kuhn blowing up in San Diego a few weeks back), especially in grass at one of the toughest places in all of football to play, Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs’ defense also is coming on as of late, and is helped in the Time of Possession department thanks to their (IMO) 3rd best running game (behind Dallas and Buffalo). I expect the Chiefs to run the ball, chew up clock to keep it away from Drew Brees as they make their run towards the AFC West title. I would take the -6.5 (now -6), but I’m gonna tease it instead as the Saints defense also happens to play a little bit better on the road, probably because they aren’t hungover eating delicious food on Bourbon Street the night before (KC does have legendary BBQ, however).
Miami +3 (-130)
This should be a close division style game, and Miami is helped by the fact RB Stud Buffalo’s LeSean McCoy is hurt with a hamstring and will miss this exciting match up. And by “exciting”, I mean, “exciting as much as watching a cat yawn”. The ML could also be a play here too for us as it would be a partial hedge vs our Miami under season bet (7).
TEASER (+160):
WAS +1
OAK +1
KC -6.5
CFL BONUS:
Toronto +17 (-115)
EDM @ CGY Under 57.5 (-110)
NFL Week 6
Miami +8.5
This is down to +8 now. Both Lou and Cousin Sal have this as one of their locks of the week. I even wanted to tease Pittsburgh (and so does everybody in America)….but this is always the type of game where they puke on themselves, especially on the road. Pittsburgh is 2-10 vs the number he last 12 times they have been a 7+ point favorite on the road; and they’ve even lost some of those games, so the ML (+360) is even in play here IMO. And you know the Steelers are going to be partying on South Beach once they land in Miami, could be a hangover effect there. The majority of the public is on Pittsburgh. Miami is atrocious in many areas, but I think they’ll at least be able to throw the ball against a shitty Steeler secondary and keep it close at home.
Kansas City +1
This is now at -1 KC. The Chiefs travel to Oakland after getting the shit kicked out of them in Pittsburgh 2 weeks ago. They are coming off a bye, and Andy Reid is 15-2 in his career coming off the bye week. Oakland maybe without Latavius Murray, and KC gets back Jamaal Charles (he played last week, but was on a pitch count). He’ll actually get some more touches this week, and I think is a DFS punt vs an Oakland defense who has a hard time stopping the pass. Denver lost last night, and that will give them some extra motivation vs an Oakland team also still in the AFC West hunt, but for some reason has struggled at home (actually, it isn’t a mystery: the Oakland Coliseum is a dump).
Saints vs Panthers Over 53
Cam Newton is probably not playing, but I don’t give a shit. I think even Derek Anderson can throw 2-3 TDs vs this shitty New Orleans offense, and the Carolina offense gets Jonathan Stewart back, which should be a boost. Carolina’s secondary has been suspect this year, and the Saints can always score a 30 spot at home, especially coming off a bye where they get guys back healthy like WR Willie Snead.
I also noted on the podcast I liked Washington +3 (-130) at home this week as well vs Philly, BUT their star TE and chain mover Jordan Reed is questionable with a concussion. If he doesn’t play, I’ll stay away as the Washington offense is probably cooked vs a surprisingly good Philly defense.
TEASER (+140):
NE -9
KC +1
SEA -6.5
NHL BONUS:
Chicago Blackhawks +115 ML
MLB BONUS:
Toronto at Cleveland Over 7.5 -105
Thursday Night Football 10.13
Chargers +3.5 (-115)
Good note here from oddssharks’ Jon Campbell:
If you picked all five Thursday Night games correctly this season, taking the underdogs straight up while laying the points with the faves, you’d be up $517.97 on $100 bets rather than $454.55 if you were to simply play the spread. It’s a significant difference.
The San Diego Chargers are 3-point home underdogs against the Denver Broncos in Week 6. If you like the Chargers, the payout is +150 on the moneyline rather than the standard -110 if you take the field goal
Lou and I like the Chargers tonight as teams this year who are 2 point to 3.5 point underdogs have covered nearly 60% of the time this year.
I’ll have a look at the ML later and I might put that in a parlay with the Dodgers +140. Nationals’ Manager Dusty Baker has lost his last 9 postseason “must win” games.
Miracle Covers Podcast #2: MLB Playoffs, NFL Season Props, and NFL Week 6 Lines
Lou and I are back with another podcast! We discuss the MLB Playoffs, some NFL Season props like Division/Conference winners and the MVP race, and we talk about who we like in next weeks’ games.
https://soundcloud.com/miraclecovers/miraclecoverscom-mlb-playoffs-and-nfl-week-6
MLB, NCAA, and a UFC Parlay
MLB:
LA Dodgers @ Washington Nationals Over 7.5 +105
3-1 so far this 2016 playoff.
NCAA
Miss St v Auburn Under 54.5 (-110)
Notre Dame vs NC State Under 56
UFC PARLAY:
Albert Tumenov (-240) and Michael Bisping (-250) at +101
NFL Week 5 Leans
OK, onto trying to predict and profit off of some more shitty NFL football this weekend:
Minnesota -7 (+105)
This has now moved to -110. Texans go into Minnesota reeling on defense after losing JJ Watt for the year, and their offense has been inconsistent at best, especially on the road. While Minnesota doesn’t have the best *talent* on defense, it’s still pretty damn good, and they have the best coach “in form” in Mike Zimmer, while being are relatively healthy. I’d rather have 11 good players, in form and healthy, as supposed to 11 Hall of Famers who are banged up…when it comes to a defensive unit. Also, Sam Bradford has played damn good football since getting traded (for what I still think is too many draft picks) to the Vikings, and at +1600 at MVP, it’s actually not a bad play. I can’t believe I just wrote that sentence, but it’s definitely in play because the Vikings are probably the #1 seed in the NFC, if we project it out from today. It’s like the Vikings, who lost all pro players at numerous positions, are like the ultimate “Ewing Theory” team. Their only real weakness is the kicker. I should of taken them 10-to-1 to win the NFL when I had the chance in the preseason.
As a last side note: Mike Zimmer vs the spread in the last two years: 28-5. And the Vikings, and their games, are one of the lowest volume bets in all of football.
Buffalo at LA Rams Under 40 (-105)
This projects to be a rock fight. The LA Rams last home game ended 9-6. They have a top 3 defense, and the Bills (coming off a shutout of the Brady-less Pats, 16-0) have a top 10 defense. Both offenses can run the ball, but have a hard time throwing it because, well, it’s the fucking Bills and the fucking Rams. Neither of these teams haven’t thrown the ball since Jim Kelly and Kurt Warner left their respective teams. Additionally, in the Rams’ new stadium at the “old as balls” LA Coliseum, is shaped like a bowl instead of a cascade. This is significant because when it’s hot in LA (who has had a hotter than usual summer and fall), there’s no shade for fans (sounds like a great time!) or players alike. 88 degree weather on 1pm on Sunday will create fatigue, which creates fail. Hopefully it also doesn’t result in defensive and special teams fail touchdowns.
Washington +4 (-115)
The Washington football team goes into Baltimore this week for a darby. Someone wins this game by a field goal. I don’t know who, and I don’t care, because I will probably watch less than 5 minutes of these shitty, flawed teams playing. I’m making bets out of spite; that’s how disgruntled I am with the NFL this year.
TEASER:
PIT -7.5
DAL +2
MIN -7
MLB BONUS:
Red Sox @ Cleveland Over 7 (-120)
LA Dodgers @ Washington Over 6 (-105)
NFL Week 4
Put up a big ole donut last week; glad I got it out of the way! There are usually 1-2 weeks a year where one’s bets get cleaned out like losing chips on a roulette table. But I am confident that we can get back on track this week.
It really has been “bizarro year” so far. NFL teams receiving less than 30% of spread bets have gone 7-3 ATS this season, Rookie QBs have a W-L of 6-1 and are 7-0 ATS, and if you bet the ML underdog on every game so far this year, you’d be up 10.5 units!!!1111 Usually, if that ratio is at around -10% to -20%, that means it’s a good year for underdogs…nevermind an ROI of +70% or more!
Cleveland +9 (-120)
The Browns are in Washington this week and this line has cratered to around -7 or -7.5. WR Tyrelle Pryor’s play for the Browns has been one of the few bright spots for the team. They lost last week’s game in OT thanks to 3 missed FGs due to a backup kicker; the regular starter got hurt on Friday during a WARM UP. How in the hell does one injure himself in a warm up? This being said, Cody Parker played well last week and the Washington Football Team is flaky in terms of consistent performance during games, never mind week to week. I don’t know how one could be a fan of either of these teams without having a heart attack.
New York Jets +3 (-130)
The juice is high here, but lots to like about the Jets this week, despite Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing 6 INTs last week (we have some candidates for now what a 6 INT game is now called: I like the “The Dirty Fitz”, but reader, Bills fan, and fellow contributor Nick also said that the “Fitz 6” is also the more stronger choice). Upside? The Jets offense and Fitz can’t play any worse than that. Russell Wilson is questionable with a knee sprain and didn’t finish the game last week; I drafted him in the 3rd round in one of my leagues and I’ve benched the guy for 2 straight games. Thomas Rawls is out with injury at RB, so the Seahawks had to sign 1st Round bust C.J. Spiller off the street (I also had to pick him up in the same league; I hate running bad in fantasy). The OL has been terrible for Seattle and the Jets have a top 3 defensive line. The game is at 1pm, and West Coast teams due tend to struggle with that (I should of listened to Cousin Sal last week RE: BUF v ARI). I expect a low scoring game, and might throw the Jets in a teaser with the under (40) on a cold, and maybe rainy, day in New Jersey.
Tampa Bay -3.5 (-115)
Trevor Siemian has looked OK so far as QB for the Broncos, leading his team off to a 3-0 start. The under I have at 9 is in jeopardy, but at some point you’d have to think a market correction occurs with this team. While he has good command of the offense, he’s also wildly inconsistent with his accuracy at times; the Bengals last week dropped several interceptions. Denver’s defense has not been as good against the run as they were last year. The Broncos are getting 88% of the money on the road here against a Tampa team that has shown it can throw the ball down the field and keep games close despite lack of depth at RB and in the secondary.
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville Over 49 (-110)
This game is in London; the poor UK fans. That being said, the fail from both of these teams should provide short fields and easy scores for both teams. The over has hit 70% of the time in the London games…this could be due to the teams in the game, but also the fact I think the long flight and trip creates dead legs which cuts into the cardio of the defenders as the game goes along.
TEASER (+140):
IND/JAX Over 49
HOU -5
ARI -7
CFL BONUS:
Ottawa Redblacks +5.5 (-110)
Week 3 NFL Lines
Arizona -4 (-105) @ Buffalo
Yes, it is an early 1pm game on the road for the West Coast Arizona Cardinals….but Buffalo is reeling right now, just firing their offensive coordinator (who was the highest paid OC in all of football) and probably not having Sammy Watkins available as he is battling an injury and was just downgraded from questionable to doubtful.
Carolina -7 (-110) vs Minnesota
Minnesota will be without the following former first round picks due to injury: RB Adrian Peterson, OT Kalil, DT Sharif Floyd, and of course QB Teddy Bridgewater. The Floyd injury is the most significant; the Vikings have a hard time moving the ball as it is and Carolina can just play the inside running game much easier to win the field position battle. I just don’t see how the Vikings score enough points to keep this one close.
LA Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 42.5 (-110)
This one will be a yawner. The Rams best offense is their defense, and the Bucs will be without RB Doug Martin.
Pittsburgh -3.5 @ Philadelphia
I think the Eagles good start comes down to earth this week. They are a little banged up and the Pittsburgh offense is playing well. Rookie QBs also usually don’t do that well against Pittsburgh’s front 7 the first time they face them.
San Francisco +9 (-105) @ Seattle
Is Seattle 3 points better than anybody at this point? Their OL and offense is in shambles. This is also somewhat of a hedge against my 49ers under season bet (5.5 wins).
TEASER (+160):
DAL -7
MIA -10
CAR -7
CFL BONUS:
Redblacks -5.5 (-105)
UFC BONUS:
Antonio “Big Foot” Silva +385
Parlay at +780: Antonio Silva (+385), Pepey (-140), Erick Silva (+105), Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino (-1200)
