Category: NFL
Week 5 NFL
NY Jets +2.5 -110
Lou special, now at +1 (-110). Jets will only have 4-5 wins this year and this is likely probably one of them vs a banged up Cowboys team.
New Orleans -2 -107
Same idea here; Saints will only have 3-4 wins this year, and this is likely to be one of them vs a rookie QB on the road without Malik Nabers.
DET 1H -4.5 -125
LV at IND OVER 47.5 -110
MIA at CAR UNDER 44 -110
TEASER +150: NY Jets +2.5, ARI -7.5, IND -7
PROPS: Alvin Kamara Receptions OVER 3.5 +170; Josh Allen Passing Yards OVER 225 -130; Jaxson Dart Passing Completions UNDER 16.5 +120; Breece Hall ANYTIME TD -122; Bo Nix INT OVER 0.5 -135;
DFS:
Week 4 NFL
Browns at Lions OVER 44.5 -105
Browns offense stinks but Lions D is in middle of the pack, Lions offense is all healthy play well at home vs a Browns defense who, while good, had a pretty physical game vs Packers last week.
Bears at Raiders OVER 48 -110
Might also hold my nose and bet Bears ML EVEN as it will be a defacto home game for them. Also these defenses stink.
Packers -6 -115
Another defacto home game for Green Bay with Micah’s return to Dallas, who is injured and also sucks.
Tennesssee +7 -105
Houston isn’t 7 points better than anybody right now, even this shitty Titans team.
Colts at Rams UNDER 50 -110
Seems too high, especially with Davante potentially out.
TEASER +150: PIT +1.5, CHI +1.5, GB -6
PROPS: James Cook 1H TD +125; Drake Maye Rushing Yards OVER 25.5 -135; Brock Bowers Receptions OVER 5.5 -125; Rome Odunze Receptions OVER 4.5 -130; Saquon Barkley Receptions OVER 2.5 -120; Davante Adams Receptions UNDER 5.5 -160
DFS:
Week 3 NFL
Cowboys at Bears OVER 50 -108
CBs out for both teams, on defenses that already stink.
Carolina +6 -115
Now at +4.5, where it should of started. Atlanta ain’t THAT good.
HOU ML +105
Getting odds in an essential coin flip. Also fuck the Jacksonville coach and the nerds who went for it on 4th and 4 inside the 15 costing me my cover last week.
TB -6.5 -110
Tyrod Taylor going today for the Jets vs a functioning Tampa team getting players back from injury. I kinda feel bad for Aaron Glenn.
TEASER +225: NE +1.5, KC -6.5, SEA -7.5, GB -7
PROPS: Puka Nacua Receptions OVER 6.5 -150; Saquon Barkley Receptions OVER 2.5 -122; Daniel Jones Rushing Attempts OVER 5.5 -130; Daniel Carlson Kicking Points OVER 7.5 EVEN; Jake Browning INT OVER 0.5 -165; Marcus Mariota Passing Attempts UNDER 30 -125
DFS:
Week 2 NFL
Dolphins -2 (-110)
Pats always lose in Miami, even to this shit Dolphins team who might be worst in the league. THey jsut had a players’ only meeting, and McDaniel might be coaching for his job. He won’t get fired…. yet.
Bears at Lions OVER 46.5 -110
These two teams have averaged 49 pts their game in the last 4 they’ve played.
Jacksonville +3.5 -115
Bengals looked too shaky in week 1. The coach kinda sucks, despite the best offensive personnel in the league. They always start slow.
SGP: Ravens ML, Henry TD, Jackson Total Yards OVER 225 – EVEN
TEASER +150: IND +1, KC +1.5, ARI -7
PROPS: De’Von Achane Receptions OVER 4.5 +120; Puka Nacua Receptions OVER 6.5 -135; Bo Nix INT OVER 0.5 -110; TreVeyon Henderson Receptions AT LEAST 4 +125; Graham Gano Kicking Points OVER 5.5 -135; Julian Hill ANYTIME TD +700; Kyler Murray Rushing Yards OVER 29.5 -110; Bucky Irving Rushing Yards UNDER 65.5 -115; Daniel Jones Rushing Attempts OVER 5.5 -135
DFS:
NFL Week 1
CIN/CLE OVER 48 -110
DEN -8.5 -115
CAR +4 -105
SEA ML +103
LA/HOU OVER 43 -120
TEASER +150: SEA +1.5, BUF +1, LV +2.5
PROPS: Nacua OVER receptions 6.5 +108; Treyveon Henderson OVER receptions 3.5 +125; Cam Ward INT OVER 0.5 -173; Justin Fields Rushing Yards UNDER 43.5 -114: Jacory Croskey-Merritt ANYTIME TD +200
2025 NFL Over/Under Totals
Miami Dolphins UNDER 8.5 -160
Now at -210, I have also seen 7.5 at other books. Got this early before the Ramsey trade to the Steelers as I suspect Mike McDonald (who Ramsey said that he wanted to play for a team “where there’s a lot of respect for the head coach) is in a “lame duck” coach year as 2nd favorite to get fired behind Brian Daboll. Tyreek Hill will want out at the first sign of no playoffs. They face six 2024 playoff teams in the second half of the year, and finish in New England. And if Tua gets another serious concussion? He may not play again. Alternate line UNDER 6.5 at +150 is definitely in play.
Dallas Cowboys UNDER 7.5 +130
Got this in before the Micha Parsons trade and it’s now at -150; I had them at 5.5 wins even WITH him on the team. Prescott one injury/ string of bad games away for fans to want Joe Milton III out there. Cee Dee is the next favorite to be traded lol. They have a Schottenheimer coaching their team, and they finish the year facing 4 out of 5 2024 playoff teams. I also put a little on UNDER 6.5 +200. Jerry Jones is a donk and you should just keep betting against his operations while he’s still alive.
Seattle Seahawks OVER 8.5 +115
The NFC West faces the shitty AFC South this year so easy going for all teams in that division (a la last year and NFC North). Seattle looks to have a good defense, and maybe a dynamic running game if Walker III stays healthy and Milroe is used properly in packages. Cooper Kupp health will be key for passing game. Darnold is as average a QB you can find but good enough to beat up on weaker part of the schedule.
Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 8.5 EVEN
Aaron Rodgers is one bad night’s rest away from hitting the IR. D.J. Metcalf is a good player but also has his injury history. HOF DL Cam Heyward held out and may not play week 1. Tomlin is due to be sub-500 as he potentially winds down his fantastic Steelers career (maybe to Washington?).
New England Patriots UNDER 8.5 -115
Everyone is high on the Patriots this year, but they still have their personnel issues despite Mike Vrabel coming in and fixing the fundamentals. The OL is barely improved and still bottom 10. Drake Maye can make big plays but also make big misses and turnovers. They have 7 WR on the roster… usually means you have none. They will run the ball well this year with Maye/Gibson/Stevenson… and now their new weapon TreVeyon Henderson, who we at miracle covers will be betting a lot on his receiving and rushing props this year. The schedule starts tough, but I think they finish the year well after the early struggles as Vrabel mold the team to his style. They could cover alot this year… just not win games as much because in certain machups, they just don’t have the horses to compete.
Carolina Panthers OVER -145
Now at -160… they finished the season well last year… Bryce Young is growing in Canales’ scheme, and they play in the second worst division in all of football.
Denver Broncos OVER 9.5 -110.
The defense is good enough to win the division. The only threat is Bo Nix and the sophomore slump hiccups. But Peyton can manage it, especially if they can run the football.
Other thoughts: I will be betting a lot of Bengals game total OVERs this year. Their offense looks great after resigning everybody. Unfortunately the defense sucks and they will have to win every game 45-42. I also have Puka Nacua receptions OVER 104.5 -110 as he welcomes Davante Adams on a Rams team who could win the NFC West. Lou likes Drake London Reception Yards OVER 1100.5 -115. I also am giddy to bet against Bill Belichick every week, we have the UNC UNDER 7.5 -135 as he is now 8-26 while dating the 24 year old. Just playing the math there.
MLB O/Us 2025
Going to do my best to squeeze something smart out here, we will see. I have not looked at any of these yet and we are like 36 hours from first pitch. First things first, the actual #s…
- ARZ – 86.5 (o -150)
- A’s – 71.5 (o -165)
- ATL – 93.5
- BAL – 86.5 (o -130)
- BOS – 86.5 (o -145)
- CHC – 86.5
- CWS – 54.5
- CIN – 79.5 (o -145)
- CLE – 81.5
- COL – 59.5
- DET – 83.5 (o -130)
- HOU – 86.5
- KC – 82.5 (o -130)
- LAA – 71.5
- LAD – 104.5 (o -140)
- MIA – 63.5 (u -130)
- MIL – 83.5 (o -140)
- MIN – 84.5
- NYM – 90.5
- NYY – 88.5
- PHI – 90.5
- PIT – 75.5 (o -130)
- SD – 85.5
- SFG – 80.5 (o -130)
- SEA – 85.5 (o -130)
- StL – 75.5
- TB – 81.5
- TEX – 85.5 (o -135)
- TOR – 78.5 (o -150)
- WSH – 71.5 (o -140)
Ill post impressions and picks in next post.
Super Bowl Props n Plays
Super Bowl MVP:
Patrick Mahomes +115; Saquon Barkley +275
Receptions:
Dallas Goedert OVER 4.5 -121; Hollywood Brown UNDER 3.5 +102; Kelce Catches on First Drive OVER 0.5 -140
Rushing:
Jalen Hurts Long Rush OVER 15.5 -130; Saquon Barkley Long Rush OVER 23.5 -110; Patrick Mahomes Rushing Carries OVER 6 -122; Kareem Hunt Rushing Yards OVER 40 -114
Touchdowns:
Jalen Hurts + Saquon Barkley ANYTIME TD PARLAY +110; Noah Gray NYTIME TD +450; Xavier Worthy ANYTIME TD +130
Penalties and Game Flow:
Distance of Longest Penalty OVER 15.5 -130; Eagles 1H/ Chiefs Win +650; Mike Danna Sacks OVER 0.5 +235; Successful 2PT Conversion YES +160
Game:
OVER 48.5 -110; TEASER -125: PHI +1 & OVER 48.5
I do think KC wins in a close one as they have all year, preferably in the 2nd half as I have Philly 1st H and KC to win the game; only 1 of their games this year was won by more than 10 points.
Week 18 NFL
Las Vegas +7 (-117)
Chargers have nothing to play for, will be resting players. Also, Raiders have actually been pretty good ATS this year, despite sucking IRL.
MIN at DET UNDER 56.5 (-107)
Expect this to be played like a playoff game with #1 seed at stake.
Buffalo -3 (-129)
I bought the half point; if Pats win today, Mayo should be fired immediately after the game.
PARLAY +201: TB ML -1600, BUF ML -190, LV +7
PROPS: Reggie Gilliam Anytime TD +150; Quintin Morris Anytime TD+800; Kyler Murray Rushing Yards OVER 44 -121; Kyler Murray Anytime TD +110; Davante Adams Anytime TD +110; Mike Evans Receiving Yards Bands 91-100 +450 & 101-110 +600; Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards OVER 87 -114; Clyde Edwards-Helaire Rushing Yards OVER 33 -118; Jayden Daniels Rushing Yards UNDER 47.5 -105
DFS:
Week 17 NFL
New Orleans +2 (-110)
Should be a pick, overreaction to last week’s ass kicking to the Packers. The Raiders are in tank mode.
Titans at Jacksonville OVER 38 (-110)
These defenses stink.
NY Giants +7 (-106)
Yes the Giants suck but the Colts aren’t 7 point better than anybody right now.
TEASER +150: NO +2, PHI -7.5, GB +1
PARLAY +285: PHI ML -375, NO ML +107, BUF -600, TB -600
PROPS: Chig Okonkwo Receptions AT LEAST 5 +110; De’Von Achane Receptions AT LEAST 4 -122; Tank Bigsby AT LEAST 1 TD +210; Dorian Thompson-Robinson Rushing Yards OVER 30 -114; Malik Nabers Receiving Yards OVER 73 +119; Tyler Huntley Passing Yards UNDER 160.5 -114; James Cook ANYTIME TD -125
DFS:
