Miracle Covers

野球

MLB is making us hustle this year on Over/Unders.  Just the #s for now.  What immediately strikes me is the lack of significant juice in many of these.  Anything -125 or higher noted.

Arizona Diamondbacks : 75.5

Atlanta Braves : 86.5 (O -136)

Baltimore Orioles : 58.5

Boston Red Sox : 94.5

Chicago Cubs : 87.5

Chicago White Sox : 73.5

Cincinnati Reds : 78.5 (O -131)

Cleveland Indians : 90.5 (O -125)

Colorado Rockies : 84.5

Detroit Tigers : 68.5

Houston Astros : 96.5

Kansas City Royals : 69.5 (U -125)

Los Angeles Angels : 81.5 (O -136)

Los Angeles Dodgers : 93.5

Miami Marlins : 63.5 (U -135)

Milwaukee Brewers : 86.5

Minnesota Twins : 83.5 (O -133)

New York Mets : 85.5

New York Yankees : 96.5 (O -129)

Oakland A’s : 83.5

Philadelphia Phillies : 89.5

Pittsburgh Pirates : 77.5 (O -133)

San Diego Padres : 78.5 (U -126)

San Francisco Giants : 73.5

St Louis Cardinals : 88.5

Seattle Mariners : 71.5 (O -147)

Tampa Bay Rays : 84.5

Texas Rangers : 71.5 (U -126)

Toronto Blue Jays : 75.5 (U -150)

Washington Nationals : 88.5 (O -137)

Super Bowl LIII

The Big Game is here…what a season! Had a good playoff…..although the Saints bet really killed it from making it a GREAT playoff….fucking refs. Worse beat, ever IMO I have ever taken in a sports bet. Anyone, new day, new game…and a fun one it should be. Especially when it comes to PROPS!

MVP Bets:
Brady +140
Gronkowski +3000
Donald +1800

I usually pick 2 QBs…but I don’t think Goff will be the story for the game (he is not even the 3rd best player on the team). Brady always has a chance, even when he shouldn’t (like vs the Falcons where it should of went to James White). I will be betting Gronk heavy in this game; it’s slated to be his last ever, so I expect a great game from him vs a Rams LBs and safeties who have been awful vs Tight Ends all year. I also picked Donald because he’s arguably the best overall player in the NFL right now, and if the Rams win, it will probably be because he had a monster game.

Rushing Props:

Todd Gurley Rushing Yards Under 72.5 -135
CJ Anderson Rushing Yards Over 49.5 +110

Gurley’s obviously hurt with a knee and it is affecting his play. Shannon Sharpe attributed his drop that cause an INT last game specifically to him “not planting on the knee correctly because he was worried about getting hit”. I also expect Belichick to take this element away from the Rams when Gurley is in the game, as his defensive scheme is to take away what you do best. CJ Anderson’s over however (49.5 +110) does look tasty and I will jump on this too as once the Novocaine wears off for Gurley (it usually last a half), he should see the bulk of the carries in the 2nd half.

James White Rushing Yards Over 19.5 -110

I think they hand it off to him in the shotgun in this game. They were successful running inside traps out of the formation vs KC last week.

Receiving Props:

James White First to Catch +250
I expect something short and quick from the Pats offense to start the game. It will probably be something to the backs, and they have started each game featuring James White out of the base shotgun set this postseason.

Sony Michel Over Receptions 0.5 -102
The Pats ran the ball 29 out of the 34 snaps he was on the field; I expect a tendency breaker to keep the Rams off balance…also probably a screen to try and slow down the great Rams front 4 of Suh, Donald, Brockers, and Fowler.

Julian Edelman Over Receptions 7 -130
He has had a monster playoff…he’s probably cycled correctly before the postseason…ahem…TB12 diet….

TE Gerald Everett Over Receptions 2.5
Both teams are awful against the tight end and run lots of PA. Everett has been targeted 10 times in his last 4 games, catching half of them.

James Develin Over Receptions 0.5 +150
This is my biggest one…..he has caught a pass 3 out of the last 5 games. I also wanna take his First to TD prop (+5000)….but I am pretty sure Burkhead/Michel will get these short yardage carries in the red zone.

Passing Props:

First Play is a Pass +115
Easy bet each year; teams love something easy and quick to their QBs comfortable in the game, especially two aggressive offensive minds like McVay and McDaniels.

Tom Brady Over Passing Completions 25.5 -140
The only year it went under was the first Super Bowl in 2001.

Total Interceptions Over 1.5 -120
Seems like stealing; both Brady and Goff threw picks last game.

Punting Props:

Hekker Longest Punt Over 54.5 -125
The guy is a weapon and may also be the best thrower on his team. I would also bet the “Will Fake Punt be Attempted – No” as the Rams did it last game and I am sure Belichick is ready for that shit.

TD Props (anytime):

Gronkowski +900
He has scored a TD in every Super Bowl he has played except for the second Giants one, which he played on one leg.

Burkhead +115
Higbee +250
Snow Leopard!

and also:
Burkhead Last Touchdown Scorer +1000

Specials:
Will any player take a knee during the national anthem? No @ -450
Took this last year at -700. Just not the game to do it (although if anyone were, it would be Marcus Peters). This is also one of those bets I actually hope to lose because fuck Goodell and the NFL.

And finally, picks for the game:

Over 57
The last time the UNDER hit was Colts vs Saints (55.5) in 2009 I believe. There will be lulls in scoring in this one, but Super Bowls are known for cardio dumps with the long irregular pacing of halftime, as well as the pyrotechnics which affect breathing, especially for defensive players.

Patriots -1.5
I am done picking against them. They have played their best ball when it counted, and they are 100% healthy (minus Hightower getting sick this week). I think we often underrate fitness with a football team, and how sometimes a team which is less talented but more fit has more of an advantage that we think. Also, Tom fucking Brady.

2018 Divisional NFL

3-0-1 last week in the column…still alive for the undefeated run, although would of been 4-0 if it wasn’t for Janikowski’s hilariously fat kicker moment; the best of the weekend IMO.

Here are my picks (* are the ones I actually bet on):

Kansas City -4.5

With Mike Mitchell out (who has been great for Indy since picking him up from Philly), as well as Eric Berry out most likely, and everyone on offense playing (minus Kareem Hunt kicking a poor girl like an XP)…..I expect a lot of scoring in this one by two young QBs who are playing in their best form. I love the Over 57* (-115) for this reason, as well as the fact that one defense stink (KC) and the other plays a bend but don’t break Cover 2 (Indy). I do expect KC to handle business and stay a TD ahead, especially Kelce having a big game with Mitchell out…..but if they struggle early, the fans might get restless again as KC has lost EVERYTIME they have had a bye in their first game. It’s a mental block they need to overcome…..but Mahomes is probably the guy to do it. I will say, if the game goes UNDER….Colts probably win.

LA Rams -7

This is the one game I have a hard time betting on straight up, wish it was -5…..I can’t trust neither Goff or Dak….but putting in a teaser with NO (-8) at -110* because I am playing that McVeigh outcoaches Garrett. The Rams suck at LB, so you’d think Zeke could have a big game…the problem is that Dallas who has lost Allen Hurns for the year, and a limp Cole Beasley, won’t probably be able to find joy past a Rams secondary that is now fully healthy so they will load up vs the run. Talib will take on Cooper, so that probably cancels out. Dallas will really miss having a even halfway decent TE in this game. I can see Dallas maybe keeping it close, but they settle for too many field goals and Jason Garrett will nit this up at some point and cost his team the game vs a Rams side that can score. The only reason they really won vs Seattle last week is that Brian Schottenheimer, who comes from a lineage of nits, was actually nittier than Garrett…which is hard to do.

LA Chargers +4.5

LA definitely could win this game…..they are the better team 1-53. But it will be cold and maybe snowy and the Chargers and HC Anthony Lynn could do Chargery-things like how they almost set a game they had in control on fire last week with blocked punts, FGs, and changing the defensive strategy that was working, going from a 4-3-3 with DBs to match the 11-on-11 speed zone read…..to a Cover 3 prevent that got the Ravens back into the game. The Pats will have to run the ball, and maybe able to vs a Chargers team decimated at LB. But that usually doesn’t translate to a blowout win. I expect this to be low scoring, with Tom Brady maybe driving it down for a last second FG.

Saints -8 (-105)*

My big play of the weekend. Sean Payton gave the team a great motivating speech, and Stephen A. Smith didn’t even mention Drew Brees in his top 5 QBs left in the playoffs, so they are gonna have a chip on their shoulder with the defending champs in town. Philly has guile and toughness, but they were kept in the game by a Bears team who tends to do that (as well as an innovative coach who calls too cute plays at times; that 2 pt play with Khalil Mack was atrocious and I think cost them the game way more than Cody Parkey’s kick). Nick Foles threw 2 picks last week…the Bears only converted into 6 points. If he does that this week, the Saints will get TDs, and that (along with the Saints and their Hulk like invincibility in the Superdome) should see them through.

2018 Wild Card Playoffs and NFL Futures

Happy 2018 Playoffs! Been a crazy year with all the scoring……and this week’s 4 playoffs games are all very good, and for the most part, very unbettable. I will say the undefeated NFL Playoff Challenge will be very difficult this year (you essentially try to go 11-0 or undefeated ATS), especially in this round. For this reason, one prop I will take is “Will any fake punts be tried Wild Card Weekend? No -300*.

Before I get into this weeks’ games, I will say I am taking New Orleans to win the NFL at +120. I just don’t think they will lose in the Superdome now with homefield.

I will also preface below the bets I am taking with be with an asterisk * – I won’t bet every game, but I will make a pick for each one for our quest for perfection. First, the AFC:

Indianapolis +2.5

Hey, the annual “Houston 4:30pm Saturday “Special” (and by “special”, we mean, “suck ass game” people who start watching tap out by the 3rd quarter) is actually a good game this year! Indy is on a roll heading into this game, one of the hottest teams in the league behind a revived Andrew Luck and a defense playing well behind super rookie LB Darius Leonard. Houston’s defense is also decent, and this is DeShaun Watson’s first playoff game. I just think Houston is due for a loss for the first time in how many godly year’s they have played in this time slot. This line is now at +1….see alot of under 3 point lines as a theme here. Vegas has no idea who is winning these games, either.

Dallas -2

Seattle and Dallas is about as much of a toss up game I have seen in a WC game in a while. Dallas only has one blowout win this year (vs Jaguars). They run the ball well and the second best tackling team in the league. Seattle also runs the ball slightly worse, and are the best tackling team in the league. I will try to find a “total over punts” line – who knew Michael Dickson on the Seahawks would be a punting God? I do like the under 43.5 at -110* as this should be a rock fight decided in the final 2 minutes.

I am also throwing Seattle in a teaser with Indy at -110*.

Chargers +2.5

I hate taking the Chargers on the road on the East Coast, as they are due for Chargery things….but I have a hard time taking a rookie QB (Lamar Jackson) at home who is basically just a zone read QB at this point of his career. The Ravens also keep teams in game too long for that reason – they can’t cash in the red zone enough due to the lack of passing game. They beat LA earlier this year, but I can see LA making the adjustments and being a very tough out in the AFC bracket. Also, Phillip Rivers is due for a final run. I do like the over 42* as Melvin Gordon is back.

Philadelphia +6 (-110)*

My biggest play of the weekend. Giddy to bet against Mitch Trubisky in a playoff game! Granted, Nick Foles got hurt last week and we are also one hit away from the Nick Sudfeld Experience. The bears have the best defense in the tournament, but their offense keeps people in games…they also lost receiving TD leader A.Miller to an injury last weekend. I expect the Super Bowl champs to keep it close and even have a chance to win this one vs a young Bears team whose time will eventually come. BTW we have not one, but two, Andy Reid disciples coaching this game (peterson and Nagy)…expect the timeouts and game clock time to be set on fire a plenty.

Week 17 NFL

Pittsburgh -14

Washington +6

TEASER +150:

Packers -7.5
Ravens -6
Vikings -6

Week 16 NFL

KC Chiefs at Seahawks Under 53.5 -110

Indianapolis Colts -9
Dallas Cowboys -7
New Orleans Saints -6

DFS:

Week 15 NFL

Arizona +9

Way too many points. Both of these teams are bad

Oakland at Cincinnati Over 46 (-115)

Buffalo -3 (+100)

TEASER +150:

Baltimore Ravens -9
Seattle Seahawks -4
Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5

DFS: