Category: NFL
NFL Week 2
Dallas +3.5 (-110)
This is essentially a home game for Dallas in LA vs the Chargers. This might be the biggest crowd at home vs LA yet.
Philadelphia +3 (-120)
SF didn’t finish the game strong last week vs a shitty Lions team, and comes in banged up already. Philly looks kind of promising but Falcons stink so we don’t fully know if they challenge Dallas for NFC Least yet.
ATL at TB OVER 52
Falcons secondary stinks, and Tampa’s is super banged up.
Denver -5.5
Denver has 2nd best defense in league, and Urban Meyer is already thinking about leaving for USC. Poor Trevor Lawrence.
Chiefs -4
Ravens super banged up, coming off nut punching loss, and their blitzing defense is not good matchup vs KC’s all world receiving core.
3 TEAM TEASER +150:
Denver -5.5
Dallas +3.5
Seattle -6
SUPER PICKS WK 1 (4-1 on season): DAL +3, KC -4, PHI -3, DEN -6, LAR -3.5
DFS:
32 Teams 32 Brief Thoughts
I never actually post, but wrote my notes of every team and am sharing them here
Arizona Cardinals – Impressive but reminder Titans may be weak. 2nd-4th yr QBs can always improve
Atlanta Falcons – O-line, defense too poor to compete
Baltimore Ravens – Major O-line issues plus injuries will struggle to .500 coaching change?
Buffalo Bills – Slight regression puts AFC East in play for Pats & Miami – no real concerns off of wk 1
Carolina Panthers – Darnold awful in red zone
Chicago Bears – Defense has regressed, Owner/GM/Coach combo prevents winning
Cincinnati Bengals – 2nd-4th yr QBs can always improve, will hit over if O-line holds up. Bates top-5 safety but Bengals won’t pay him because they are cheap
Cleveland Browns – Perfect gameplan and 1st half vs. Chiefs. Mayfield is poor in 4th quarters and/or when trailing
Dallas Cowboys – Opting for short FGs cost them the game vs. TB. No margin for error with below avg defense
Denver Broncos – Aggressive on offense, need to continue
Detroit Lions – Miracle cover of 2021
Green Bay Packers – Is Aaron Rogers tanking? Need more data points on team play because of week 1 blowout
Houston Texans – Avg veterans can get Texans to avg-ish record. Non-zero chance to win division with other teams weakness
Indianapolis Colts – Offense zero margin for error. Wentz OK not great
Jacksonville Jaguars – Should improve but how soon?
Kansas City Chiefs – Same defensive issues as last season but Mahomes
Las Vegas Raiders – Underrated skill positions + QB. ????s all around on defense masked by Baltimore poor O-line week 1. Gruden awful decisions in-game and will continue to cost wins/points on the margins
Los Angeles Chargers – Slater excellent LT, might have enough skill to overcome no home field if team injuries subside
Los Angeles Rams – No changes to preseason outlook, depth still major concern
Miami Dolphins – Is Tua Andy Dalton or Kirk Cousins 2.0?
Minnesota Vikings – Team might quit on Zimmer, very minimal upside
New England Patriots – Jonnu Smith key to offense, too conservative week 1
New Orleans Saints – Defense equal to last year’s top 5 group based on week 1, offense questions still exist. Too reliant on Kamara
New York Giants – Upcoming Washington and Atlanta games will provide barometer for all 3 teams talent level and outlook – Denver superior + horrible matchup
New York Jets – No above avg pass blockers on roster. Worst team in AFC
Philadelphia Eagles – Excellent week 1, need more data points. Can win division
Pittsburgh Steelers – Best Front 7 in league, secondary did well. O-line plus immoble QB puts significant limitation on offense. Will struggle to score points on long fields
San Francisco 49ers – Reliance on extremely injury-prone players means team will be worse than current talent level later in the season
Seattle Seahawks – Play calling highly encouraging. IND not capable of testing secondary
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Autopilot until Nov/Dec. Need trades/signings to bolster DBs
Tennessee Titans – Will not make playoffs without winning division. Not enough talent across the roster
Washington Football Team – Horrific October schedule, Heinicke unlikely to be top 25 QB
Also per Sean’s request, My current HFA for all 32 teams:
Arizona Cardinals – 2
Atlanta Falcons – 2
Baltimore Ravens – 3
Buffalo Bills – 3
Carolina Panthers – 2.5
Chicago Bears – 3
Cincinnati Bengals – 2
Cleveland Browns – 2.5
Dallas Cowboys – 2.5
Denver Broncos – 3
Detroit Lions – 2
Green Bay Packers – 3
Houston Texans – 2
Indianapolis Colts – 3
Jacksonville Jaguars – 2
Kansas City Chiefs – 3
Las Vegas Raiders – 1.5
Los Angeles Chargers – 0
Los Angeles Rams – 1.5
Miami Dolphins – 2
Minnesota Vikings – 2.5
New England Patriots – 3
New Orleans Saints – 3
New York Giants – 2
New York Jets – 1.5
Philadelphia Eagles – 3
Pittsburgh Steelers – 3
San Francisco 49ers – 3
Seattle Seahawks – 3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 2.5
Tennessee Titans – 3
Washington Football Team – 1.5
Week 1 NFL
Bengals +3
The Vikings will find ways to keep them in the game. And they still have a shitty kicker.
Steelers +6.5
Line is too big; this should be a 3 point game, and a good one at that. Sneaky big AFC game week 1.
Texans vs Jaguars OVER 46
These defenses stink.
Rams -8.5
Stafford and a top 5 defense vs Andy Dalton and a top 10 defense. I choose Matt Stafford.
Prop of the week: Daniel Jones OVER INT 0.5 -130
DFS:
Miracle Covers AFC 2021 Preview
Here’s Lou and I’s 2021 AFC Preview. We also talk some La Liga and EPL.
https://soundcloud.com/miraclecovers/mc-afc-2021-preview
And here are my Super Picks this week:
CIN +3
LA -9
SF -8
PIT +6.5
GB -3.5
NFC 2021 NFL Preview
We’re back! Lou and I talk NFC 2021 over/unders and division winners.
https://soundcloud.com/miraclecovers/mc-2021-nfc-preview
NFC Teaser (+150):
Bucs -7.5 (now at 9.5!)
Rams -8
SF -7.5
This Things I Believe (2)
Steelers OLine
We can say with confidence the Steelers OLine is going to look much different this year than from units of the recent past. We are not pointing out anything new by noting the eye-opening collective departures of proven Pro-Bowl talent players DeCastro, Pouncey, and Villanueva, not to mention Ramon Foster retiring before the 2020 season. As a result of this turnover, some folks are predicting rough times for the Steelers offense, which struggled at times last year as it was, especially in the run game. Whoever lines up will obviously be tasked with protecting an aging QB often described as “statuesque.” If you take an important unit that performed poorly last year, and then strip it of essentially all its proven talent, it would seem bad times are almost inevitable. And then the dominoes knock each other over and Steeler short-sellers have Pittsburgh finishing 3rd or 4th in their division. An already subpar OLine is only going to be worse this year. Ben, who has been integral to the success of PIT over the years is going to get his 300 year-old ass bombarded routinely. He will get hurt (or at least be super ineffective), the offense will be a shell of itself, Pittsburgh will be a collective hot mess. All of these things might happen, but what I am looking to point out here is that this argument rests on not 1, but 2 assumptions – that the OLine unit will be inevitably super poor, and ultimately that will be a main factor in a possible Steeler downfall this year. Tomlin recently noted; “(Last year) We were last in the league in rushing. We have nowhere to go but up from certain aspects.” That team finished 12-4…Even if the OLine proves a borderline disaster (which is not a given), there still exists the chance it ultimately just doesnt really matter in the standings.
As I noted yesterday, the idea behind this particular series of blurbs is to stick to statements we can make that are essentially fact. The story line of a low-grade OLine causing the Steelers to plummet in the standings might prove largely accurate…but all we can say for certain is that the PIT OLine will be very different than in years past. The team recently signed former Pro Bowler Trai Turner at OG and I would imagine they will continue to pursue reinforcements.
This Things I Believe (1)
I am going to aim to write a daily blurb here. Anyone who stumbles upon this for whatever reason should be warned the aim for these posts will be to toss out ideas and thoughts, not to slam down winners…The main concept here will be to try to establish concepts that are believed to be true. I apologize if some of the issues here are widely known and discussed, I havent watched SportsCenter in an eon.
Blue Jays
I have been going thru team lineups pretty consistently the last couple of weeks and it is striking how Toronto hardly ever seems to diverge from its standard lineup. Virtually every other team accounts for hot streaks, or at the least righty-lefty matchup stuff…Toronto for the most part seems to go, “Oh, you say they are scratching that 22 year old lefty minor league call-up and are pitching deGrom today? Fair enough. No, I dont need an eraser, we’ll stick with whats on the card, thank you.” They simply dont care…You are going to face 5-6 very legit RH hitters right off the rip…I bet some pitchers almost do a double-take when Cavan Biggio steps up. It has obviously worked fine for them so far, interesting to see if they maintain this course as playoffs begin to approach.
More March Madness Hedging Monday
Parlay +375: Houston ML -350* and Arkansas +245 ML
*Disclosure: I actually do like Oregon St +8 here if it was straight up, but Houston winning dims my still alive bracket hopes. I might actually find a way to middle Oregon St during the game, via live line, if they fall early and we get an even bigger number because I think it will be a close game.
Arkansas +8
I need Baylor to win to have any chance of winning my first NCAA bracket since 2010, and even bigger payout than my first in 2003, beating 178 players (Thank you, Carmelo, McNamara, Warrick, and Syracuse). The other equation is Michigan: if both make it to the Final Four and Final Two, then more hedging will be to come! I do think Baylor wins; Arkansas has a habit of lulls offensively in games so I am not taking ML straight up (I’ll wait for Final Four to do that…hopefully) instead putting that in parlay and putting most my hedge money on the number.
Super Bowl LV Prop-palooza
Super Bowl LV is here…and while I am taking Tampa in the game (+3.5), and putting in a teaser with the OVER (56) due to the fact that a team who lost the first game of a Super Bowl rematch that year is 7-6 in the second game… this will really be a close game IMO and it’s not where my major action lies. That’s all in the PROPS, baby!
GAME FLOW PROPS:
First Play from Scrimmage – Run @ -114
I usually pick pass every year, but last year was a run, and due to hardly no fans and the weirdness of that, I think both teams come out to settle down to run at first before the passes start flying later.
Biggest scoring half – 2nd Half @ -110
KC usually starts out slow. 2nd half has been the biggest scoring half in 4 of the last 5 Super Bowls.
Will either team attempt a 2 point conversion – YES @ -145
Too much talent on the field not to try one if you are both teams.
Both teams lead in 1st Half? YES @ +105
Will either team score 3 unanswered times in the game? – NO @ +140
Should be a close, back and forth game.
Will the MVP be a QB? YES @ -500
QB has been the MVP 55% of the time. These are also two of the best in the game, and the league will favor that unless someone gets 4 sacks, 2 INT, or 3 TDs.
FIRST TO SCORE:
Mike Evans +1200
Rob Gronkowski +1600
Travis Kelce +600
Patrick Mahomes +1300
Darrell Williams +1300
KC PROPS:
Mahomes Rushing Yards OVER 25 @ -110
Let’s just hope Mahomes doesn’t run backwards again this year for 30 yards at the end of the game to run out clock.
Mahomes Completions OVER 33 @ +175
I see the Chiefs throwing the ball a ton, and quick, vs Tampa’s defense.
Mecole Hardman more catches than Cameron Brate @ +100
Brate is hurt coming into the game, and Hardman coming off nice game vs Bills.
Darrel Williams OVER Reception Yards 14.5 @ -115
Darrel Williams Receptions AT LEAST 2 @ +100
I pounded Chiefs RB Damien Williams reception OVERs last year, I expect more dump offs from Mahomes this Super Bowl too. Williams is KC’s “pass blocking” back, and has gotten more touches since Clyde Helaire-Edwards hit the rookie wall late in the year due to injuries, and Le’Veon Bell is now old and sucks.
Travis Kelce Receptions OVER 8.5 @ +110
Been hammering this all playoff for Kelce. He’ll probably go down as best Receiving TE of all time over guys like Shannon Sharpe and Kellen Winslow.
Tommy Townsend Longest Punt UNDER 52.2 -125
Don’t expect many 3 and outs from KC which allow for punter to have long kicks.
Will the Kansas City Chiefs Successfully Convert a 4th Down? YES @ -165
They will go for it on 4th down than most teams
TAMPA PROPS:
Will Tom Brady Throw an Interception? YES @ -200
He has thrown a pick in each of his last 3 games vs KC.
Leonard Fournette Receptions OVER 4 -125
Fournette has become the “James White” for Brady during this playoff run.
Ryan Succop Kicking points OVER 7.5 @ -115
He has been the best kicker in the playoffs; one edge Tampa has over KC as Butker has struggled.
Rob Gronkowski Anytime TD Scorer +200
OVER Receiving Yards 50 @ +125
He has scored TD in 2/3rds of the Super Bowl he’s been in. Had 80 yards and a TD last time they played.
DFS:
The Ochocinco Special:
My version of Cousin Sal’s Gary Russell bet. I took Pats WR Chad Ochocinco at 0.5 OVER receptions at +100 in Super Bowl XLVI and pranced around in glee at the party I was at when he had his only catch, a 15 yard incut, in the 3rd quarter.
Scotty Miller OVER receptions 1.5 @ +125
Antonio Brown, the other slot receiver for Tampa, comes into the game hurt. The Chiefs blitzed 47% of the time in the 1st matchup… I expect them to continue, and Brady and company to make the adjustment to get the ball out quick on screens and such. Miller also had a good game last game, including a TD before the half. Snow leopards, unite!
Championship Sunday
Packers -3
In terms of pressure, there is a ton on Aaron Rodgers. A lot of folks consider him this year’s MVP, and probably the 4th best all time behind Brady, Montana, and Manning. It’s his first NFC title game at home, and beating Brady to get to a Super Bowl would be a great feather on his cap. It does help that the Packers’ defense has been playing better, and DaVante Adams (who just came off an injury and played when these two met in a 38-10 drubbing by Tampa in October) is in great form. We took the Packers’ under this year and woefully got it wrong; I think part of the reason Rodgers and the team is playing so well is Aaron’s time in Green Bay is probably more borrowed time UNLESS he wins this game. Players can usually galvanize around that. On the other side, Tom Brady now makes his 9th title game in 10 years… although it was him NOT making mistakes, instead of making plays, last week which brought him here. Usually when a great QB late in his career moves on to a new team, they do well the first year. Montana and Favre made it to their title games; Warner and Manning made it to Super Bowls. But all eventually flamed out, and even their careers shortly ended after (Manning won a title in 2015; but his arm was shot and it was more Denver’s all time top 5 defense that year that brought the bacon home). Brady has already proved him point over Belichick; he’s freerolling at this point. But the lack of a running game, a true 3RB, and Tampa’s inconsistent secondary will probably be the end of the Bucs’ run here.
PROPS:
First to Score: Evans +1000, Adams +450
Receptions (At Least): Fournette 4 +114, Gronkowski 3 -114
Rushing Yards: Rodgers OVER 15 -110
TDs (At Least): Aaron Jones 1 -114
Bills +3
Kansas City is banged up, have been walking on wires the last 8 weeks, and had a hard time throwing on the Bills secondary last time these two met. The game was pushed back due to COVID to a Tuesday; the Bills mostly played a shell zone and allowed the Chiefs to run the ball to make sure Hill and company were covered down the field. It’s a similar strategy Bill Belichick used on the K-Gun Bills, ironically, in 1991 with the Giants in the Super Bowl. I will also add the big concern on Mahomes’ health isn’t the concussion so much, as it is the toe… he was clearly short arming throws last week and it effected his accuracy. I do wish the Bills had a better running game; Zach Moss is out and they will miss him in this game. But I believe a short passing attack in throwing to slot receiver Cole Beasley will supplant that possession game… Julian Edelman killed the Chiefs in 2018. I think this will be a close, low scoring game like the first matchup in Buffalo earlier in the year so I am also taking the UNDER at 54.5 (-105).
PROPS:
First Score Method – Field Goal +170
Total Receptions: Cole Beasley OVER 4.5 (-105), Clyde Edwards-Helaire 2 (-125), Darrell Williams 2 (-105)
First to score: Darrell Williams +1600, Gabriel Davis +2000, Kelce +650
Rushing Yards (At Least): Josh Allen 40 -127; Darrell Williams 38 +110
Receiving Yards (At Least): Kelce 107 +108
Patrick Mahomes Interception – YES +140
DFS:
