Category: NFL
NFC 2021 NFL Preview
We’re back! Lou and I talk NFC 2021 over/unders and division winners.
https://soundcloud.com/miraclecovers/mc-2021-nfc-preview
NFC Teaser (+150):
Bucs -7.5 (now at 9.5!)
Rams -8
SF -7.5
This Things I Believe (2)
Steelers OLine
We can say with confidence the Steelers OLine is going to look much different this year than from units of the recent past. We are not pointing out anything new by noting the eye-opening collective departures of proven Pro-Bowl talent players DeCastro, Pouncey, and Villanueva, not to mention Ramon Foster retiring before the 2020 season. As a result of this turnover, some folks are predicting rough times for the Steelers offense, which struggled at times last year as it was, especially in the run game. Whoever lines up will obviously be tasked with protecting an aging QB often described as “statuesque.” If you take an important unit that performed poorly last year, and then strip it of essentially all its proven talent, it would seem bad times are almost inevitable. And then the dominoes knock each other over and Steeler short-sellers have Pittsburgh finishing 3rd or 4th in their division. An already subpar OLine is only going to be worse this year. Ben, who has been integral to the success of PIT over the years is going to get his 300 year-old ass bombarded routinely. He will get hurt (or at least be super ineffective), the offense will be a shell of itself, Pittsburgh will be a collective hot mess. All of these things might happen, but what I am looking to point out here is that this argument rests on not 1, but 2 assumptions – that the OLine unit will be inevitably super poor, and ultimately that will be a main factor in a possible Steeler downfall this year. Tomlin recently noted; “(Last year) We were last in the league in rushing. We have nowhere to go but up from certain aspects.” That team finished 12-4…Even if the OLine proves a borderline disaster (which is not a given), there still exists the chance it ultimately just doesnt really matter in the standings.
As I noted yesterday, the idea behind this particular series of blurbs is to stick to statements we can make that are essentially fact. The story line of a low-grade OLine causing the Steelers to plummet in the standings might prove largely accurate…but all we can say for certain is that the PIT OLine will be very different than in years past. The team recently signed former Pro Bowler Trai Turner at OG and I would imagine they will continue to pursue reinforcements.
This Things I Believe (1)
I am going to aim to write a daily blurb here. Anyone who stumbles upon this for whatever reason should be warned the aim for these posts will be to toss out ideas and thoughts, not to slam down winners…The main concept here will be to try to establish concepts that are believed to be true. I apologize if some of the issues here are widely known and discussed, I havent watched SportsCenter in an eon.
Blue Jays
I have been going thru team lineups pretty consistently the last couple of weeks and it is striking how Toronto hardly ever seems to diverge from its standard lineup. Virtually every other team accounts for hot streaks, or at the least righty-lefty matchup stuff…Toronto for the most part seems to go, “Oh, you say they are scratching that 22 year old lefty minor league call-up and are pitching deGrom today? Fair enough. No, I dont need an eraser, we’ll stick with whats on the card, thank you.” They simply dont care…You are going to face 5-6 very legit RH hitters right off the rip…I bet some pitchers almost do a double-take when Cavan Biggio steps up. It has obviously worked fine for them so far, interesting to see if they maintain this course as playoffs begin to approach.
More March Madness Hedging Monday
Parlay +375: Houston ML -350* and Arkansas +245 ML
*Disclosure: I actually do like Oregon St +8 here if it was straight up, but Houston winning dims my still alive bracket hopes. I might actually find a way to middle Oregon St during the game, via live line, if they fall early and we get an even bigger number because I think it will be a close game.
Arkansas +8
I need Baylor to win to have any chance of winning my first NCAA bracket since 2010, and even bigger payout than my first in 2003, beating 178 players (Thank you, Carmelo, McNamara, Warrick, and Syracuse). The other equation is Michigan: if both make it to the Final Four and Final Two, then more hedging will be to come! I do think Baylor wins; Arkansas has a habit of lulls offensively in games so I am not taking ML straight up (I’ll wait for Final Four to do that…hopefully) instead putting that in parlay and putting most my hedge money on the number.
Super Bowl LV Prop-palooza
Super Bowl LV is here…and while I am taking Tampa in the game (+3.5), and putting in a teaser with the OVER (56) due to the fact that a team who lost the first game of a Super Bowl rematch that year is 7-6 in the second game… this will really be a close game IMO and it’s not where my major action lies. That’s all in the PROPS, baby!
GAME FLOW PROPS:
First Play from Scrimmage – Run @ -114
I usually pick pass every year, but last year was a run, and due to hardly no fans and the weirdness of that, I think both teams come out to settle down to run at first before the passes start flying later.
Biggest scoring half – 2nd Half @ -110
KC usually starts out slow. 2nd half has been the biggest scoring half in 4 of the last 5 Super Bowls.
Will either team attempt a 2 point conversion – YES @ -145
Too much talent on the field not to try one if you are both teams.
Both teams lead in 1st Half? YES @ +105
Will either team score 3 unanswered times in the game? – NO @ +140
Should be a close, back and forth game.
Will the MVP be a QB? YES @ -500
QB has been the MVP 55% of the time. These are also two of the best in the game, and the league will favor that unless someone gets 4 sacks, 2 INT, or 3 TDs.
FIRST TO SCORE:
Mike Evans +1200
Rob Gronkowski +1600
Travis Kelce +600
Patrick Mahomes +1300
Darrell Williams +1300
KC PROPS:
Mahomes Rushing Yards OVER 25 @ -110
Let’s just hope Mahomes doesn’t run backwards again this year for 30 yards at the end of the game to run out clock.
Mahomes Completions OVER 33 @ +175
I see the Chiefs throwing the ball a ton, and quick, vs Tampa’s defense.
Mecole Hardman more catches than Cameron Brate @ +100
Brate is hurt coming into the game, and Hardman coming off nice game vs Bills.
Darrel Williams OVER Reception Yards 14.5 @ -115
Darrel Williams Receptions AT LEAST 2 @ +100
I pounded Chiefs RB Damien Williams reception OVERs last year, I expect more dump offs from Mahomes this Super Bowl too. Williams is KC’s “pass blocking” back, and has gotten more touches since Clyde Helaire-Edwards hit the rookie wall late in the year due to injuries, and Le’Veon Bell is now old and sucks.
Travis Kelce Receptions OVER 8.5 @ +110
Been hammering this all playoff for Kelce. He’ll probably go down as best Receiving TE of all time over guys like Shannon Sharpe and Kellen Winslow.
Tommy Townsend Longest Punt UNDER 52.2 -125
Don’t expect many 3 and outs from KC which allow for punter to have long kicks.
Will the Kansas City Chiefs Successfully Convert a 4th Down? YES @ -165
They will go for it on 4th down than most teams
TAMPA PROPS:
Will Tom Brady Throw an Interception? YES @ -200
He has thrown a pick in each of his last 3 games vs KC.
Leonard Fournette Receptions OVER 4 -125
Fournette has become the “James White” for Brady during this playoff run.
Ryan Succop Kicking points OVER 7.5 @ -115
He has been the best kicker in the playoffs; one edge Tampa has over KC as Butker has struggled.
Rob Gronkowski Anytime TD Scorer +200
OVER Receiving Yards 50 @ +125
He has scored TD in 2/3rds of the Super Bowl he’s been in. Had 80 yards and a TD last time they played.
DFS:
The Ochocinco Special:
My version of Cousin Sal’s Gary Russell bet. I took Pats WR Chad Ochocinco at 0.5 OVER receptions at +100 in Super Bowl XLVI and pranced around in glee at the party I was at when he had his only catch, a 15 yard incut, in the 3rd quarter.
Scotty Miller OVER receptions 1.5 @ +125
Antonio Brown, the other slot receiver for Tampa, comes into the game hurt. The Chiefs blitzed 47% of the time in the 1st matchup… I expect them to continue, and Brady and company to make the adjustment to get the ball out quick on screens and such. Miller also had a good game last game, including a TD before the half. Snow leopards, unite!
Championship Sunday
Packers -3
In terms of pressure, there is a ton on Aaron Rodgers. A lot of folks consider him this year’s MVP, and probably the 4th best all time behind Brady, Montana, and Manning. It’s his first NFC title game at home, and beating Brady to get to a Super Bowl would be a great feather on his cap. It does help that the Packers’ defense has been playing better, and DaVante Adams (who just came off an injury and played when these two met in a 38-10 drubbing by Tampa in October) is in great form. We took the Packers’ under this year and woefully got it wrong; I think part of the reason Rodgers and the team is playing so well is Aaron’s time in Green Bay is probably more borrowed time UNLESS he wins this game. Players can usually galvanize around that. On the other side, Tom Brady now makes his 9th title game in 10 years… although it was him NOT making mistakes, instead of making plays, last week which brought him here. Usually when a great QB late in his career moves on to a new team, they do well the first year. Montana and Favre made it to their title games; Warner and Manning made it to Super Bowls. But all eventually flamed out, and even their careers shortly ended after (Manning won a title in 2015; but his arm was shot and it was more Denver’s all time top 5 defense that year that brought the bacon home). Brady has already proved him point over Belichick; he’s freerolling at this point. But the lack of a running game, a true 3RB, and Tampa’s inconsistent secondary will probably be the end of the Bucs’ run here.
PROPS:
First to Score: Evans +1000, Adams +450
Receptions (At Least): Fournette 4 +114, Gronkowski 3 -114
Rushing Yards: Rodgers OVER 15 -110
TDs (At Least): Aaron Jones 1 -114
Bills +3
Kansas City is banged up, have been walking on wires the last 8 weeks, and had a hard time throwing on the Bills secondary last time these two met. The game was pushed back due to COVID to a Tuesday; the Bills mostly played a shell zone and allowed the Chiefs to run the ball to make sure Hill and company were covered down the field. It’s a similar strategy Bill Belichick used on the K-Gun Bills, ironically, in 1991 with the Giants in the Super Bowl. I will also add the big concern on Mahomes’ health isn’t the concussion so much, as it is the toe… he was clearly short arming throws last week and it effected his accuracy. I do wish the Bills had a better running game; Zach Moss is out and they will miss him in this game. But I believe a short passing attack in throwing to slot receiver Cole Beasley will supplant that possession game… Julian Edelman killed the Chiefs in 2018. I think this will be a close, low scoring game like the first matchup in Buffalo earlier in the year so I am also taking the UNDER at 54.5 (-105).
PROPS:
First Score Method – Field Goal +170
Total Receptions: Cole Beasley OVER 4.5 (-105), Clyde Edwards-Helaire 2 (-125), Darrell Williams 2 (-105)
First to score: Darrell Williams +1600, Gabriel Davis +2000, Kelce +650
Rushing Yards (At Least): Josh Allen 40 -127; Darrell Williams 38 +110
Receiving Yards (At Least): Kelce 107 +108
Patrick Mahomes Interception – YES +140
DFS:
Divisional Sunday
Chiefs -8 (-115)
Was at 10, huge money coming in on Browns. I don’t know why, their secondary sucks. I am taking Browns 1H +6.5 as I expect this to be close until KC pulls away in 2nd half. I could see this game being like the one vs Houston last year (minus the mega-fail). I also have KC in teaser with TB. Props for this game:
– Kelce OVER Rec Yards 100 +102
– Le’Veon Bell OVER Receptions 2 +150
– Hunt, Kelce, and Hill to all have TD +450
– Mahomes OVER rushing yards 22.5 -140
– Hunt OVER rushing yards 34.5 -160
– Chubb OVER receptions 2.5 +100
Tampa Bay +3
I have no idea who wins this game; hard to beat a team 3 times in a year. It;s gonna be close; I am taking First Score – Field Goal prop at +170.
NBA BONUS:
Dallas Mavericks -6.5
Division Round Saturday
Packers -7
The Rams defense has looked strong, but I just can’t take Jared Goff and the pins in his hand vs Aaron Rodgers on the road. Green Bay won’t make the same mistakes Seattle did to allow them to get that coveted lead so they can ground and pound clock. I do have two props for this one: OVER Receptions Aaron Jones 3.5 -125 and First score of the Game – Field Goal +150. I am also teasing this line with the Ravens.
Ravens +3.5 (-115)
Now at +2.5 (-105). I didn’t really like the way the Bills played last week: the play calling as too nitty in the beginning, the defense had issues against the run, giving up time of possession due to losing the battle at the line of scrimmage. Most importantly, they didn’t cover the spread despite having a 14 point lead in the 4th (yeah, I am salty). If it wasn’t for Frank Reich’s bad coaching decisions and Philip Rivers’ noodle arm missing a few key throws, they could of easily lost this game if not for Josh Allen and their fantastic passing attack. The Ravens are playing physical, Lamar is back in form, and their defense seems to have righted the ship from mid-season struggles. I do like the over 49.5 as well; both teams should score points, but the Bills will need to create turnovers and turn them into TDs. Should be a fun game, I could see it being 28-27 Ravens or Bills. The props I like in the game (there’s a ton):
– First to Score: Lamar Jackson +700; Josh Allen +800; JK Dobbins +250
– Anytime TD scorer: JK Dobbins -167, Gabriel Davis +250
– Over Rushing Yards: Gus Edwards 37.5 -114, Josh Allen 43 -200
– Over Receptions Dawson Knox 2.5 +100
DFS:
UFC BONUS:
Matt Brown vs Carlos Condit FIGHT GOES DISTANCE – YES @ +115
Max Holloway by Decision +125
Wild Card Sunday
Underdogs seized the day yesterday… again. 95% have hit vs the spread since 2018. Wild stuff. Thankfully, we hit props to save the day. Here are my picks for today:
Tennessee +3.5*
I have them +1000 to win the AFC; I could hedge now, and Baltimore played well (against bad teams) down the stretch. But Derrick Henry has been running like a beast, and Tannenhill has played efficient to where I am comfy doubling down this round. The only fear: the Titans have the worst secondary in the playoffs. Ravens aren’t really a throwing team, but even they could probably have a good day vs this secondary. Lou expects a shootout; so for props, my plays are: Total Receptions – Mark Andrews (BAL) OVER 5 (-115), Total Passing Yards Lamar Jackson Over 209.5 (-115), First offensive play of the game – Pass at +115, Tannehill Rushing Yards OVER 25 (-108), Derrick Henry 2 TDs +200, Anthony Firkser First TD +2800.
Bears +10.5
I wanna pick against Truibisky in a playoff game. I really do. But no fans in dome, Saints burning me over the last few years, and just way too many points for a playoff game even if the team is the worst remaining in the field. Bears do have a good defense so they can keep it close. I expect the Bears to have long drives that settle for field goals, so taking the First Score of the Game – Field Goal +150 prop.
Cleveland +6*
Taking this as a small hedge for my 3 team teaser which Pittsburgh is the final leg of. This should be a close game; Cleveland has been dealing with COVID issues all week and their coach won’t even be there but to it. I expect Cleveland to get ahead early, and also taking Browns 1H ML at +150, but in true Browns fashion spit it away in the second half. I like Diontae Johnson Receptions OVER 6.5 +100, let’s just hope he catches the ball. He will get targets however.
DFS:
NFL Wild Card Weekend Saturday
The quest to go undefeated against the spread will be harder this year, with 7 playoff teams instead of 6 for each conference for 14 total. But the parody of the field, along with COVID, makes this one of the harder fields to prognosticate.
Here’s my Saturday picks and plays; anything I actually bet on with have as asterisk on it.
Buffalo -7 (-105)*
Taking Buffalo because of the favorable juice, they’ll have some fans at home, the offense has been on fire in the last month and the defense has improved since losing a buzzer beater to Arizona in November. The only concern is their run defense; Indy’s Jonathan Taylor has been running the ball great lately. But I anticipate the Bills to stack the box and make Philip Rivers throw the ball vs (in Bill Rafferty voice) man-to-man down the field, which when he does, makes me feel old as balls that’s how uncomfortable it is. I also will have two props: Josh Allen first TD scorer at +600 and Josh Allen OVER rushing yards 39 (+105).
Seahawks -3
Toughest game to pick of the weekend, IMO. Russell Wilson looked great early, but he and the offense have sputtered into the end of the year. Their secondary is so bad, they call it the “Legion of Room”. At least they can tackle. Whilst their defense maybe the best in the field, the Rams’ offense is probably the 3rd worst in the field (behind Chicago and Washington). I don’t know if they are better off at QB with the backup Wolford, or the flaccid Jared Goff (who is questionable and a gametime decision). Taking the points at home for Seattle for the pick, but even then their great homefield is waned due to no fans. Don’t bet on this game.
Tampa Bay -9
Started at 8, now at 9. Tampa has more talent, especially at QB where it’s old ass Tom Brady vs Old and Broken Down Alex Smith. Taylor Heinicke may even see action in this game according to Rivera if Smith struggles. WFT’s front seven is awesome; they will have to have a monster game to keep it close. But I anticipate too many 3-and-outs for Washington and I just don’t know where they find points. I will say, Brady is 1-5 vs winning teams this year; however, WFT is not a winning team with a 7-9 record, getting a home game due to winning the NFC LEast. For a prop, I am taking the first score to be a Field Goal at +150. I am also teasing Tampa (-9), Pittsburgh (-6) and Buffalo (-7) at +150.
DFS:
NBA Bonus:
Phoenix +3.5
