Category: NFL
NFL Wild Card Saturday
It’s that time of year…playoffs! We weren’t able to do a preview pod but hopefully able to get one in next week. Lou and I did have a chat so I can forward along some of his thoughts in my picks below. As always, we have a goal each year to go undefeated against the spread. I am also doing a $30 pick’em pool for both lines and totals, so I will give each pick for each game, and put a * for every game I am also betting individually. So here we go!
Raiders +6*
UNDER 49
Line has gone to +5.5… these two teams played a close, low scoring game in Vegas in November. The Raiders match up well vs the Bengals: they can run the ball and they can rush the passer as the Bengals run defense is meh and their offensive line blows. They also have Darren Waller back. That being said, I have no idea who WINS this game because the Raiders’ secondary blows and Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, and Jamar Chase have been one of the best offenses in December. This will be a 3 point game, and I think it’s one of the two games of the weekend that could to go to OT. also, because its Raiders vs Bengals, two franchises mired in modern failure… I am also taking the “Will there be a safety?- YES” prop at +1000.
Buffalo -4
UNDER 44
Now Bills -5. It will be cold and maybe snowy and you’d think that would favor New England like in the windy MNF game in November. The Patriots ended the season losing 3 of 4, they don’t have a WR1 or WR2, they have a rookie QB on the road (a rookie QB has never won a playoff game), and their defense is overrated. In the last meeting in Foxboro, NE DEF was 2-11 stopping 3rd/4th downs vs the Bills (and one of those “stops” was Emmanuel Sanders just dropping the ball). The Patriots should be able to run the ball against a smallish Bills team, but once they get behind in points… the Bills have too much firepower on the outside with the emergence of Isiah McKenzie and Gabriel Davis, and Devin Singletary has run the ball better in the last few weeks. Usually liking the UNDER would mean the Patriots have a chance to win; but these 3rd division games tend to be close; I can see Belichick and company keeping it close in the 1H (and there I am taking Patriots 1H +3)… until the Bills’ superior offense pulls away in the 2nd half. For props, I also like Josh Allen OVER rushing yards 45 at -150.
NHL BONUS:
Nashville +135
PARLAY +350: NSH ML +135 + DET ML -180 + COL ML -420
Week 18 NFL Propapalooza
Last week of the year… which means players need stats to hit their incentives or to break records. We’re taking props today, all OVER, to hopefully cash in as the players do, as these teams will go out of their way to hit these incentives (i.e. last year, Seattle called a couple of shovel passes in a row to get a wide receiver his receptions total in a meaningless game).
PROPS:
Rex Burkhead OVER 41.5 Rushing Yards -114; AT LEAST 72 Yards +173
Also looking for receiving yards OVER bets. He needs 105 total yards to hit a $250k bonus.
Tyler Lockett AT LEAST 2 TDs +900
Lockett needs two touchdowns to hit a $1 million bonus.
Cooper Kupp to have AT LEAST 136 Receiving Yards and 12 Receptions +150; AT LEAST 100 Yards + TD @ +100
Kupp going for all kinds of things, and LA is playing for the division title. He needs 12 receptions to set the all-time record for receptions in a season, and 136 yards to beat Calvin’ Johnson’s all-time mark. He’s also in line to win the wide receiver triple crown, and if he gets something like 200 yards and 2+ TDs today, he might win the MVP. He should be the MVP, IMO… and he’s probably 1-2 more seasons away from being the greatest Snow Leopard of all time.
Kyle Pitts OVER Receiving Yards 61.5 -119
Pitts needs 59 yards to break Mike Ditka’s rookie TE receiving yards mark.
Parlay @ -195: Stefon Diggs AT LEAST 6 Receptions (-333) + Marvin Jones AT LEAST 4 Receptions (-333)
Their individual lines were high, so I just combined them in a parlay to bring it down, as both will most likely be hit. Diggs needs 6 receptions for $1.2 million vs the lowly Jets, while Marvin Jones gets $500k for having at least 4 receptions in a game vs the Colts he probably plays all game in. He averages 4.1 catches per game this season.
T.J. Watt 1.5 Sacks OVER -180
Watt needs 2 sacks to break Michael Strahan’s season record. He has a good matchup against a backup running QB in Huntley (who I also started in DFS because Watt’s going to be undisciplined in going for this record off the edge).
A.J. Green to have AT LEAST 75 Receiving Yards +120
Green needs 10 receptions for a $250,000 bonus and 75 receiving yards for another $250k. THe yards seem more attainable as Green gets around 4 catches a game.
Rob Gronkowski Receptions OVER 7 -130
He need 7 catches for $500k, 85 yards for another $500k, and 3 TDs for another $500k. He may rest in this one, but the catch one most attainable and likely.
GAME PLAYS:
Miami +6.5 -105
Patriots always struggle in Miami. For like my entire life.
Ravens -3.5 +105
Big Ben ends his career today, most likely laying a golden turd in the middle of the field.
Washington -7 EVEN
Joe Judge sucks.
Indianapolis -14 -110
Last day to bet against Jacksonville! Jonathan Taylor can also hit 2000 yards today he if gets 266,
TEASER +150: TEN -10, WAS -6, BAL -3.5
PARLAY +530: MIA +6.5, IND -14, WAS ML -287, TEN ML -550, BUF ML -900
SUPER PICKS (42-38-5 Season): MIA +6.5, IND -14, BAL -3.5, WAS -7, CAR +10
DFS:
NFL Week 17
HOU at SF OVER 43.5
Young QBs, but the defenses are even worse.
Philadelphia -4 -120
Started at -3.5, now at -6. WFT reeling after losing 110-31 last two weeks, and their team had a fight on the field last game.
New Orleans -6.5 -110
Tip from friend of the site, and Panther fan, Allen. Tepper is apparently getting public second thoughts about giving all that money to HC Rhule, locker room is a mess, and Robbie Anderson is celebrating 1st downs down 26 in the 4th quarter. NO is banged up, but they are at least a professional football team.
Rams at Ravens UNDER 47
Expect the short handed Ravens to try and shorten the game today.
Detroit +9
All this shitty team does is cover the number. Dan Campbell is 8-6 ATS!
TEASER +150: PHI -6, LA Rams -6, CHI -6
SUPER PICKS (39-37-4 Season): NE -15.5, DET +9, NO -6.5, PHI -4, GB -13
CASTLE DEGEN PARLAY (My Pick BOLD): HOU at SF OVER 43.5, KC at CIN UNDER 51, PHI -6, NO -6.5, MIA +3, CLE -3
DFS:
Week 16 NFL
Lions at Falcons OVER 42 -105
Bears at Seahawks UNDER 42.5 -110
Bengals -7 -118
LA Rams -3 -120
TEASER +150: Seahawks -6, KC -8.5, CIN -7
SUPER PICKS (35-36-4 Season): IND +1, DET +7, CIN -7, CAR +11, LA Rams -3
CASTLE DEGEN PARLAY (my pick BOLD): RAMS -3, NE ML -110, MIA -2, DET at ATL OVER 42, NYG +10.5
DFS:
Week 15 NFL
ATL at SF OVER 47.5 -115
CAR at BUF OVER 44 -108
TEN +1
TEASER +150: GB -7, SF -9, TEN +1
SUPER PICKS (33-33 season): TEN +1, BUF -10.5, BAL +8, TB -10.5, CHI +6
Castle Degen Parlay: SF -8, JAX -5, CIN +3, ATL at SF OVER 47.5, SEA +7, NO at TB UNDER 45
DFS:
NHL BONUS:
STL ML +120
Week 14 NFL
Denver -10
Now at -12.5. Everyone is out for the Lions today, coming off a hangover with their first win vs the Vikings last week.
Washington +6.5
Darby game, should be close, and the Cowboys and McCarthy will find a way to fuck it up
Tennessee -8
Now at -9. The Jaguars suck.
Raiders at Chiefs OVER 48
TEASER +150: CIN +1.5, BAL +2.5, TEN -8
SUPER PICKS: (30-31 Season): DEN -11.5, GB -11, WAS +6.5, TEN -8.5, LV +9
CASTLE DEGEN PARLAY (MY PICK BOLD): DEN -11, HOU +9.5, CIN +2.5, BAL +3, CAR ML -135, WAS +7
DFS:
Nashville +120
Week 13 NFL
Chicago +7.5 (-110)
Early game for Cardinals, Arizona is banged up, and Chicago has played well since Andy Dalton got back under center.
Lions +7
Both of these teams stink in their own special way.
Jacksonville at LA Rams OVER 48 -105
SF at Seattle UNDER 45.5 (-110)
TEASER +150: PHI -5.5, MIA -6.5, WAS +1
SUPER PICKS (28-28 season): CHI +7.5, TB -11, DEN +10, CIN -3, DET +7
CASTLE DEGEN PARLAY (My pick BOLD): CHI +7.5, DEN +10, WFT +1, SF -3, MIA -6.5, PIT +4.5
DFS:
Winnipeg -8
NFL Week 13
Colts +3
Chargers -2.5 (-125)
TEN at NE OVER 43
LA Rams at Green Bay UNDER 47
TEASER +150: NYJ +2.5, MIA +1, GB +1
SUPER PICKS (26-25 season): BUF -6, IND+3, LAC -2.5, HOU -2.5, GB +1
CASTLE PARLAY (my pick BOLD): NE ML -303, PHI ML -200, LAC ML -156, MIN +4, JAX +2
DFS:
NFL Thanksgiving
Turkey Teaser: Detroit +3, Dallas -7, Buffalo -6
Oakland at Dallas UNDER 51.5 (-115)
Prop: D.Swift (DET) to have at least 1 TD +111
DFS:
NFL Week 11
Steelers +6
de facto home game for Pittsburgh in LA vs Chargers.
Detroit +13
They have rookie QB but I dunno if Cleveland is 13 points better than anyone right now.
NO +3
Toss up game where we are getting points.
BAL -1.5
Line started at -6!
Arizona at Seattle UNDER 45.5
Both teams banged up for divisional tilt
TEASER +150: NE -7, BUF -7, SF -6.5
SUPER PICKS (25-25 year): NO +3, DET +13, TEN -10, PIT +6, MIA -3
CASTLE DEGEN PARLAY (my pick BOLD): BAL -4, MIA -3.5, NO +3, PIT +6, KC -2.5, CAR -3
DFS:
