Miracle Covers

Week 7 NFL Plays

Tampa -11

Tampa is banged up, but so is Chicago, and I just don’t know how Chicago scores on the road with a running QB vs a top 3 running defense even with Lavonte David out. Plus Matt Nagy will fuck it up at some point.

Eagles at Raiders OVER 48.5 -110

These defenses stink. Eagles might be a play too, as a lot of Philly fans probably in Vegas this weekend to watch game. The Gruden firing might be GOOD for the Raiders; they played looser last week and it showed, granted against a meh Broncos team.

TEASER +150: NE -7, BAL -6.5, GB -8.5

PARLAY MLs +125: NE -320, GB -415, TB -650, LAR -1400, HOU -2000

Super Picks: (0-5 last week, 15-15 on season): SEA +5, Tampa -11.5, LA Rams -15, PHI +2, DEN +3.5

The Degen Castle Parlay:

So doing a weekly parlay with 5 of my friends; we each get a pick and throw in money each week (my pick in BOLD):

DFS:

NFL Week 6

Dolphins -3 (-130)

Totally forgot this game was at 9:30am in London. Jags might win because Dolhpins also bad, but betting against Urban Meyer every week. Only another 8-10 weeks of this money train.

Chiefs at Washington OVER 55

This is the biggest over ever at FedEx Field. Hope the grass doesn’t screw us over, although Chiefs giving up 7.1 yard per play lol

Denver -3.5 (-115)

After the Gruden emails fiasco, the Raiders might be cooked for a few weeks with the interim coach coming in.

Houston +10

Colts keep everybody in games (or blow them all together)

Cowboys at Patriots UNDER 50.5 (-115)

Total should be 48.

TEASER +150: PIT -5, KC -7, CAR +1

SUPER PICKS (15-10 on the season) PHI +7, MIA -3.5, PIT -4.5, HOU -10, DEN -3.5

DFS:

NFL Week 5

We have a new pod out! We talk about Lou’s HFA points ratings Home vs Away, the shittiest defenses so far, how the Falcons & Giants coaches decision making sucks the life from the collective fanbases’ souls, and the week 5 lines:

Now for this week’s picks:

TEN -3.5 (-120)

This is now at -4.5. The Titans are banged up, have the worst secondary in football, and coming off a loss to the woeful Jets… but they are at least a professional football team with a professional football head coach. The Jags players are laughing at theirs.

DET +10 (-110)

This started at 7.5 and is now at 10… I don’t understand it. I don’t think the Vikings are 10 points better than anybody not named the Texans. Detroit is not good but they are competitive every week and they have had cover sweats in all of their games.

Chicago at Las Vegas OVER 45 (-110)

Will be a fun atmosphere with Bears fans in Vegas today. The only thing worse than Matt Nagy’s play calling is the Raiders’ O-Line. The Bears defense has not been good this year. The Raiders may also not be totally up for this game after the tropey email Gruden wrote in 2011 that was reported.

Buffalo at KC OVER 56 (-110)

Just keep betting KC OVERs until they don’t hit.

TEASER +150: Cowboys -7, Patriots -9, Arizona -6

SUPER PICKS (11-9 on the season): NE -8, DET +10, TEN -4, IND +7, ARI -5.5

DFS:

NFL Week 4

Cleveland -2 (-110)

Browns have looked like the best team in the AFC so far, if not for Baker and the punter shitting themselves in the 4th quarter vs KC in Week 1. And its the Vikings, who find new ways to lose games each week.

KC at PHI OVER 54.5 (-110)

These defenses stink. Let’s see if the Philly coach can call more than 3 running plays this game.

Tennessee -6 (-110)

The Jets stink. Maybe the worst team in the NFL if it wasn’t for the Jaguars’ coach getting hammered in an Ohio State bar and flirting with co-eds. This from Mike Greenberg is hilarious; him going on tilt on live TV over the Jets each year is hilarious af https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ogNfF2JSJTc

Ravens at Broncos UNDER 44 (-115)

Someone wins this game 20-17.

TEASER +150: TEN -6, WSH +1, KC -6

SUPER PICKS (8-7 on season): CLE -2, BUF -17, TEN-6, CAR +5, KC -6.5

DFS:

Week 3 NFL

New Orleans at New England UNDER 43

Neither offense has looked great in the first 2 weeks. Should be a close, defensive battle.

Atlanta +3 (-125)

Line seems off; should be 1 or pick’em. The play here is to obviously pick the Falcons, then take NYG Live Money Line when Atlanta goes up 14-3 in the 2nd quarter and then eventually blows the lead in the 4th (sorry Lou).

Denver -10

The Jets may have already ruined Zach Wilson

TEASER +150: Ravens -7, Cardinals -6.5, Steelers +2

Super Picks (6-4 on season): ATL +3, PIT -3, KC -6.5, PHI +4, DEN -10

DFS:

Power Rankings Week 3

Continuing the theme of posting my notes for public consumption:

Kansas City Chiefs – Defense & Roster sneakily young & should improve
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – No change from last week Autopilot until Nov/Dec. Need trades/signings to bolster DBs

Los Angeles Rams – Sloppy win – still need to avoid injuries
Buffalo Bills – Obviously and comprehensively better than Miami – Cupcake schedule with tests against KC and TB
San Francisco 49ers – Will slowly continue to decrease talent level over the season. Outplayed or even with Eagles at best
Cleveland Browns – Significant issues at WR
Green Bay Packers
Denver Broncos – Professional win @ Jax

Seattle Seahawks – Poor defense will lead to more overs and blown leads – no margin for conservative playcalling
Baltimore Ravens – Good comeback, Seattle comment applies

Dallas Cowboys – Defense and coaching flaws unchanged from 2020
Los Angeles Chargers – Played Dallas to a draw but Continuing to lose games on the margins
Carolina Panthers – Superb defense vs. NO – avg offense gets them to playoffs
Arizona Cardinals – Murray and defense improved. Game management and playcalling have not
Pittsburgh Steelers – Overall offense a continual problem – avg offense gets them to playoffs
Las Vegas Raiders – Overall defense a continual problem
New Orleans Saints – Overall offense a continual problem

Philadelphia Eagles – Could be the most inconsistent in the league in 2021
New England Patriots – Pats receivers still not getting open – O-line outplayed by Jets front
Minnesota Vikings – Good in 2nd half, curse of Gary Anderson
Indianapolis Colts – Unlikely to win games vs. teams above them on this list – Does healthy Wentz exist?
Tennessee Titans – Comeback more an indictment of Seattle defense. Too many negative plays from Tannehill

Miami Dolphins – Small margins for error and limited offense until Tua improves or gets upgraded
Cincinnati Bengals – Playcalling and O-line still an issue
Chicago Bears – Defense was better vs. Bengals, Fields equal QB to Dalton as of right now but with ability to run
Washington Football Team
New York Giants – O-line doing OK, poor in red zone

Houston Texans
Atlanta Falcons – Disorganized on offense which defeats the point of having a veteran qb. Pitts already top-10 TE. No defense
Detroit Lions
New York Jets – Who was Wilson throwing to on the 4th INT? Front 7 did well vs. NE esp. Mosely at LB
Jacksonville Jaguars – No safety again and defense has been bottom 5- Zero on offense minus opening drive and garbage time

32 Teams 32 Brief Thoughts

I never actually post, but wrote my notes of every team and am sharing them here

Arizona Cardinals – Impressive but reminder Titans may be weak. 2nd-4th yr QBs can always improve
Atlanta Falcons – O-line, defense too poor to compete
Baltimore Ravens – Major O-line issues plus injuries will struggle to .500 coaching change?
Buffalo Bills – Slight regression puts AFC East in play for Pats & Miami – no real concerns off of wk 1
Carolina Panthers – Darnold awful in red zone
Chicago Bears – Defense has regressed, Owner/GM/Coach combo prevents winning
Cincinnati Bengals – 2nd-4th yr QBs can always improve, will hit over if O-line holds up. Bates top-5 safety but Bengals won’t pay him because they are cheap
Cleveland Browns – Perfect gameplan and 1st half vs. Chiefs. Mayfield is poor in 4th quarters and/or when trailing
Dallas Cowboys – Opting for short FGs cost them the game vs. TB. No margin for error with below avg defense
Denver Broncos – Aggressive on offense, need to continue
Detroit Lions – Miracle cover of 2021
Green Bay Packers – Is Aaron Rogers tanking? Need more data points on team play because of week 1 blowout
Houston Texans – Avg veterans can get Texans to avg-ish record. Non-zero chance to win division with other teams weakness
Indianapolis Colts – Offense zero margin for error. Wentz OK not great
Jacksonville Jaguars – Should improve but how soon?
Kansas City Chiefs – Same defensive issues as last season but Mahomes
Las Vegas Raiders – Underrated skill positions + QB. ????s all around on defense masked by Baltimore poor O-line week 1. Gruden awful decisions in-game and will continue to cost wins/points on the margins
Los Angeles Chargers – Slater excellent LT, might have enough skill to overcome no home field if team injuries subside
Los Angeles Rams – No changes to preseason outlook, depth still major concern
Miami Dolphins – Is Tua Andy Dalton or Kirk Cousins 2.0?
Minnesota Vikings – Team might quit on Zimmer, very minimal upside
New England Patriots – Jonnu Smith key to offense, too conservative week 1
New Orleans Saints – Defense equal to last year’s top 5 group based on week 1, offense questions still exist. Too reliant on Kamara
New York Giants – Upcoming Washington and Atlanta games will provide barometer for all 3 teams talent level and outlook – Denver superior + horrible matchup
New York Jets – No above avg pass blockers on roster. Worst team in AFC
Philadelphia Eagles – Excellent week 1, need more data points. Can win division
Pittsburgh Steelers – Best Front 7 in league, secondary did well. O-line plus immoble QB puts significant limitation on offense. Will struggle to score points on long fields
San Francisco 49ers – Reliance on extremely injury-prone players means team will be worse than current talent level later in the season
Seattle Seahawks – Play calling highly encouraging. IND not capable of testing secondary
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Autopilot until Nov/Dec. Need trades/signings to bolster DBs
Tennessee Titans – Will not make playoffs without winning division. Not enough talent across the roster
Washington Football Team – Horrific October schedule, Heinicke unlikely to be top 25 QB

Also per Sean’s request, My current HFA for all 32 teams:

Arizona Cardinals – 2
Atlanta Falcons – 2
Baltimore Ravens – 3
Buffalo Bills – 3
Carolina Panthers – 2.5
Chicago Bears – 3
Cincinnati Bengals – 2
Cleveland Browns – 2.5
Dallas Cowboys – 2.5
Denver Broncos – 3
Detroit Lions – 2
Green Bay Packers – 3
Houston Texans – 2
Indianapolis Colts – 3
Jacksonville Jaguars – 2
Kansas City Chiefs – 3
Las Vegas Raiders – 1.5
Los Angeles Chargers – 0
Los Angeles Rams – 1.5
Miami Dolphins – 2
Minnesota Vikings – 2.5
New England Patriots – 3
New Orleans Saints – 3
New York Giants – 2
New York Jets – 1.5
Philadelphia Eagles – 3
Pittsburgh Steelers – 3
San Francisco 49ers – 3
Seattle Seahawks – 3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 2.5
Tennessee Titans – 3
Washington Football Team – 1.5

Week 1 NFL

Bengals +3

The Vikings will find ways to keep them in the game. And they still have a shitty kicker.

Steelers +6.5

Line is too big; this should be a 3 point game, and a good one at that. Sneaky big AFC game week 1.

Texans vs Jaguars OVER 46

These defenses stink.

Rams -8.5

Stafford and a top 5 defense vs Andy Dalton and a top 10 defense. I choose Matt Stafford.

Prop of the week: Daniel Jones OVER INT 0.5 -130

DFS:

Miracle Covers AFC 2021 Preview

Here’s Lou and I’s 2021 AFC Preview. We also talk some La Liga and EPL.

https://soundcloud.com/miraclecovers/mc-afc-2021-preview

And here are my Super Picks this week:

CIN +3
LA -9
SF -8
PIT +6.5
GB -3.5