Category: NFL
Week 15 NFL
ATL at SF OVER 47.5 -115
CAR at BUF OVER 44 -108
TEN +1
TEASER +150: GB -7, SF -9, TEN +1
SUPER PICKS (33-33 season): TEN +1, BUF -10.5, BAL +8, TB -10.5, CHI +6
Castle Degen Parlay: SF -8, JAX -5, CIN +3, ATL at SF OVER 47.5, SEA +7, NO at TB UNDER 45
DFS:
NHL BONUS:
STL ML +120
Week 14 NFL
Denver -10
Now at -12.5. Everyone is out for the Lions today, coming off a hangover with their first win vs the Vikings last week.
Washington +6.5
Darby game, should be close, and the Cowboys and McCarthy will find a way to fuck it up
Tennessee -8
Now at -9. The Jaguars suck.
Raiders at Chiefs OVER 48
TEASER +150: CIN +1.5, BAL +2.5, TEN -8
SUPER PICKS: (30-31 Season): DEN -11.5, GB -11, WAS +6.5, TEN -8.5, LV +9
CASTLE DEGEN PARLAY (MY PICK BOLD): DEN -11, HOU +9.5, CIN +2.5, BAL +3, CAR ML -135, WAS +7
DFS:
Nashville +120
Week 13 NFL
Chicago +7.5 (-110)
Early game for Cardinals, Arizona is banged up, and Chicago has played well since Andy Dalton got back under center.
Lions +7
Both of these teams stink in their own special way.
Jacksonville at LA Rams OVER 48 -105
SF at Seattle UNDER 45.5 (-110)
TEASER +150: PHI -5.5, MIA -6.5, WAS +1
SUPER PICKS (28-28 season): CHI +7.5, TB -11, DEN +10, CIN -3, DET +7
CASTLE DEGEN PARLAY (My pick BOLD): CHI +7.5, DEN +10, WFT +1, SF -3, MIA -6.5, PIT +4.5
DFS:
Winnipeg -8
NFL Week 13
Colts +3
Chargers -2.5 (-125)
TEN at NE OVER 43
LA Rams at Green Bay UNDER 47
TEASER +150: NYJ +2.5, MIA +1, GB +1
SUPER PICKS (26-25 season): BUF -6, IND+3, LAC -2.5, HOU -2.5, GB +1
CASTLE PARLAY (my pick BOLD): NE ML -303, PHI ML -200, LAC ML -156, MIN +4, JAX +2
DFS:
NFL Thanksgiving
Turkey Teaser: Detroit +3, Dallas -7, Buffalo -6
Oakland at Dallas UNDER 51.5 (-115)
Prop: D.Swift (DET) to have at least 1 TD +111
DFS:
NFL Week 11
Steelers +6
de facto home game for Pittsburgh in LA vs Chargers.
Detroit +13
They have rookie QB but I dunno if Cleveland is 13 points better than anyone right now.
NO +3
Toss up game where we are getting points.
BAL -1.5
Line started at -6!
Arizona at Seattle UNDER 45.5
Both teams banged up for divisional tilt
TEASER +150: NE -7, BUF -7, SF -6.5
SUPER PICKS (25-25 year): NO +3, DET +13, TEN -10, PIT +6, MIA -3
CASTLE DEGEN PARLAY (my pick BOLD): BAL -4, MIA -3.5, NO +3, PIT +6, KC -2.5, CAR -3
DFS:
Week 10 NFL
Detroit +9 (-110)
Got this earlier in the week, before Ben got the human malware. Steelers have a habit of getting out to big leads and letting teams and crappy QBs back into games.
Colts -10 (-115)
Now at 10.5. Just gonna keep betting against the Jags; the Bills loss last week probably ML upset of the year.
Seattle at Green Bay UNDER 49.5 (-110)
One QB is coming off hand surgery, another off COVID. And it might snow.
ATL ML +320
Only taking this so I can livebet Dallas later when Atlanta gets a lead they’ll eventually blow (sorry Lou)
SUPER PICKS (23-22 on year): Colts -10, DET +9, ATL +8, LAC -3, NE -1
Castle Parlay (my pick in BOLD):
| SF +3.5 |
| NO +3 |
| ATL +8 |
| NYJ +13 |
| IND -10.5 |
| NE -1 |
DFS:
Week 9 NFL
Buffalo -14.5 (-110)
Back to betting against the Jags every week.
LA Chargers at Philadelphia OVER 49 (-110)
Should be 52 IMO.
LA Rams -7.5
Titans lose Derrick Henry going into SoFi vs a hot Rams team who just got Von Miller. I have no idea how they cover Cooper Kupp.
Packers +7
Are the Chiefs 7 points better than anyone NOT the Jags/Lions/Texans right now?
TEASER +150: PHI +1, CLE +1, LA RAMS -7.5
Super Picks (20-20 Season): DEN +10, GB +7, LA Rams -7.5, BUF -14.5, LA Chargers PK
Castle Degen Parlay (My pick in BOLD at +4058):
| CLE +2.5 |
| NE -3 |
| LAC ML -118 |
| DEN +10 |
| LA RAMS -7 |
| LV -3 |
DFS:
Week 8 NFL
Colts -1
Now at -3 after some COVID hit Tennessee including DC Jim Schwartz. Indy is starting to come around and this should be a contested division by the end of the year.
Lions ML +150
I don’t care 75% of the money is on Detroit. After I saw this last week when Philly coach Nick Siranni compared his team to a flower (I want the shit he is smoking), there is just no way this isn’t 1 of the 2-3 potential wins on the Lions schedule this year.
Jacksonville at Seattle OVER 43.5
Now at 45. These defenses stink.
Cincinnati -10 (EVEN)
I’m betting against Jets QB Mike White as much as I can.
Texans 1H +9.5
They have been a sticky first half team all year against these big numbers.
The Castle Degen Parlay (my pick in BOLD):
| +4576 |
| Jets |
| Falcons |
| Tampa |
| Den/Wash OVER |
| Jags / Hawks Over |
| Steelers |
Super Picks (18-17 on the season): ARI -6, CIN -10, BUF -13.5, DET +3.5, IND -1
DFS:
Week 7 Notes
Focus this week is mostly on a specific element each team is doing poorly
Arizona Cardinals – Kyler Murray no longer running (3 weeks now)
Atlanta Falcons – Ridley + others completely ineffective at WR, short yardage, esp. running, an issue since 1966
Baltimore Ravens – Injuries starting to become a problem – team has managed extremely well until this week. Difficult schedule rest of season
Buffalo Bills – Weirdly struggling in 3rd/4th and short yardage. Punting has been poor
Carolina Panthers – Leading the league in punts
Chicago Bears – Can’t pass protect which caps both current offense and Fields development
Cincinnati Bengals – Not going to say anything negative about the Bengals :)
Cleveland Browns – Very good defense masked by awful performance to date on 3rd/4th down
Dallas Cowboys – Worst in league defensively yards after catch – slants and screens will beat them
Denver Broncos – allowing pressure on 30% of dropbacks, QB + WR injuries mean not enough skill to compensate
Detroit Lions – Successful deep throws almost non-existent on offense – everything is short. Defense worst in league on passes to RBs
Green Bay Packers – Secondary holding up, Special Teams poor for 2nd year running. Difficult schedule upcoming
Houston Texans – worst offense in the league by a good margin – will likely struggle even vs. Miami and NYJ
Indianapolis Colts – Excellent rush defense (best in league?) but poor pass defense against any competent QB
Jacksonville Jaguars – Performance dropoff once trailing by 2+ scores
Kansas City Chiefs – Only forcing 4th down on roughly one of every 5 opponent 1st downs. Last in every defense category – .500 team without improvement
Las Vegas Raiders – Poor red-zone defense masking average defense otherwise – worse at home than on the road so far
Los Angeles Chargers – Worst team in the league vs. run. Part design & part personnel. Usual kicking/ST woes
Miami Dolphins – Last in QB pressures at under 3 percent – Maybe this is why Tua is so bad when pressured
Minnesota Vikings – Poor running team masked by run play volume. Need to throw 2x more which Zimmer won’t do
New England Patriots – Defense markedly worse vs. shotgun – 2 games vs. Jets skewing team evaluation
New Orleans Saints – Red zone regression coming on offense – fewest offensive plays in the league
New York Giants – Incapable of running outside – no above average positional groups
New York Jets – Worst 1st half team in league this season and worst 1st quarter team of all time
Philadelphia Eagles – Hopeless when Hurts is under center which limits offensive options
Pittsburgh Steelers – Offense up to nearly average – Smith-Shuster needs to improve and be put in better situations to convert 2nd/3rd downs
San Francisco 49ers – have been awful on offense in close/late game situations, 2nd half defense has also been poor exacerbating the problem
Seattle Seahawks – Zero (0) for Three (3) on 4th down attempts for the entire season
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Pass defense has held up so far but reliant on pass rush and facing below avg. QBs – Elite offense can and will carry team
Tennessee Titans – Can’t cover slot receivers – Overall defense not awful but extremely variable week-to-week
Washington Football Team – Offensive redzone a huge problem – drives to GB 24, 27, 1, 3, 12 and 27 end in 3 combined points
