Category: NCAA Football
Week 13 NFL, SEC Championship, and Wilder/Fury
Arizona +14
Way too many points. Green Bay is playing like ass and they may hate their coach…and the QB, who has also had a bad year for his standards and also hates the coach. Also, Arizona’s front 4 is pretty fucking good…their offense is wretched, however.
Indianapolis -4.5
Luck vs Kessler. I choose Luck.
Jets at Titans Under 40.5 (-110)
Don’t watch this game
TEASER +130
New England Patriots -5
Houston Texans -6
Seattle Seahawks -10
DFS:
NCAA:
Alabama -12 (-110)
BOXING:
Wilder -160
I think this will be a fight where Fury, who had the moment of his life a few years ago with a win vs Klitschko, age and wear and tear shows vs a more athletic and powerful fighter. Fury is a load; he is the biggest man in the division but he is coming off various cocaine binges, gaining a shit ton of weight, and a mental health issue with 2 comeback KO wins vs heavyweight cans. If Fury was in form, he may of had a better shot….but Wilder has stayed active, and he knows a win here will guarantee a big payday vs Anthony Joshua to unify the heavyweight title and a chance to be ‘the baddest man in the world”. I like Wilder by either decision or a 11th round KO.
Week 9 NFL
NFL
Packers at Patriots Over 56.5 (-120)
Rams at New Orleans Under 60 (-110)
KC Chiefs -9
TEASER +150:
Minnesota Vikings -5
Carolina Panthers -6.5
Kansas City Chiefs -9
DFS:
NCAA:
Northwestern +10 (-110)
TCU at Kansas State Under 46 (-115)
Premier League:
Tottenham -0.5 (+120)
Week 1 NFL 2018
Cleveland +6 (-115)
This is now at 4.5 now we know that Bell is probably not playing. We have had history of going against the Steelers when they are 6 or more point favorites in the last two years (at Jets/at Miami/at Bears). They average 8 less points on the road than t home, Cleveland’s defense is good, and the Browns covered this game last year with Kizer, nevermind Tyrod Taylor (or Mayfield if Tyrod gets hurt).
Saints/Bucs Over 49.5 (-110)
It’s in the dome, should be points in this game.
Texans +6.5 (-110)
NE is only starting 3 WRs, so Texans should be able to bracket Gronk. The Texans and Watson covered in this game last year. Should be a fun, tight game and potential AFC Title Game preview. I fully expect the Texans to be up late, then Coach Bill O’Brien to nit it up to give the Pats the ball back, and Brady to win it late like he did last year.
Carolina -3 (-105)
The Gowin special. Two of the worst WR corps go at it in this one, but especially Dallas. I just don’t see how they move the balls against a very good Carolina defense at home, unless they win the field position battle by Newton throwing the ball in the dirt.
TEASER +120:
Saints -10
Vikings -6.5
Ravens -7
DFS:
NCAA BONUS:
GA vs S.Carolina Under 55 (-110)
When a point total moves 4+ from it’s originaly line (51 here), the Under hits 57% of the time
UFC BONUS:
Till vs Woodley – Fight Goes the Distance – YES @ +110
PARLAY @ +250: Suarez -500 + Magomedsharipov -1400 + Stamann +130
Week 17 NFL and a Parlay
First, a parlay (with an NCAA bowl game) (+168):
New England Patriots -1600
Washington Redskins -155
Baltimore Ravens -500
Auburn -360
Now the Week 17 NFL picks:
Washington +3.5 (-110)
This is more of a hedge, if anything, against my season under on Washington (-7.5 wins). Otherwise, a nothing burger of a game involving two really shitty football teams.
Bears at Vikings Under 39.5
The under has hit in all of the Vikings’ home games where they were big favorites. They will be resting people most likely, and with the hapless Bears offense, this will resemble the first preseason game of the year.
SF +4.5
Rams are resting everybody. They might also unintentionally try and lose this game just so they can be in Philly’s bracket (Foles) over Minnesota’s.
I might also punt on UFC 219 this weekend, if I can find away to step away from the poker tables in Montreal.
Weekend Plays
Will post here with any football plays, frantically trying to go back in time and catch up on hockey and basketball.
Kansas St @ Kansas (+24 -106)
It is a depressing thought it is already Week 9 for College Football. Waaaaaaaaaaaay back at the beginning of the season I noted how tempting Kansas’ season over looked @ 3. Ultimately, it was a pass, based largely on analysis from Bill Connelly, who noted that the massive turnover Kansas was going to experience this year in their secondary was a giant, sprawling, waving in your face red flag re: defensive success. Thankfully, we have steered clear of the Jayhawks, but this seems like a good match-up to take a chance on them. Kansas St does not have one of the better aerial attacks in the Big-12, and 90% of the money is on the Wildcats. Kansas seems due, let’s hope.
UFC 216
Lando Vannata vs Bobby Green – Will Fight GO the Distance? – No @ +125
Derrick Lewis +215
Tony Ferguson Wins by Submission +250
NCAA BONUS:
Air Force vs Navy Under 51 (-105)
NCAA Plays
How about Sean going 3-0 on picks Last Week! How about Lou well above .500 on his Hilton picks! How about me still trying! Let’s make some bets
WKU @ UTEP +17.5 -110
Did you know W Kentucky led the NCAA in scoring last year? They lost multiple impact skill position type guys and have not come close to matching their output. UTEP has a groundcentric attack. They have a guard Will Hernandez who is OBIN (One of the Best In the Nation). UTEP controls the clock, keeps WKU’s not so high-flying attack in check, and maybe even pulls out the win outright. Or they lose by 35.
Iowa St +31 -106 @ Oklahoma
Iowa St has a bunch of tall, athletic WRs. Eaton and Lazard are the best of the bunch. In my team notes for Oklahoma I have this entry for April 15th…”Thru transfers, grad, suspensions, injuries CB sitch thinnish. *UPDATE* Lost a S (KOT), 2ndary takes another hit.” I am too lazy to go back and see what the Hell “KOT” means…I mean, it sure sounds bad. They also lost a CB named Parker (who started 8 games LY) for the season in the 1st week. All of this hopefully translates to Iowa St putting up at least 21 points.
Fresno St @ San Jose St +17 -105
Can’t remember who it was but there was a decent team a few years ago who was getting way too much love from the public and their spreads were inflated in borderline Patriot fashion. If they were favored by 12, the tagline would be, “I don’t care who they’re playing, they shouldn’t be 12 pt faves over anybody.” The easy bet for a few weeks was to fade them against the spread not because they weren’t good, but because they weren’t that good. San Jose St is awful, but Fresno St is no peach themselves. This is strictly, 100%, a bet against Fresno St, who I believe isn’t 17 points better than just about anyone, a theory San Jose St is going to really test.
Weekend Plays
Not sure how many plays will happen this weekend. ATM (At the moment) only have New Mexico St +17.5 @ Arkansas. New Mexico St is surprisingly competent against the run, which is Arkansas’ preferred attack. I will talk myself into some increasingly sketchy plays throughout the weekend, stay tuned.
UPDATE 1…Sketchy Bet Scale (4/10)
New Mexico St @ Arkansas Under 61.5 -116
This would be an absolutely legitimate, 1 out of 10 on the sketchy bet scale, if it wasn’t for our previous action. Now to hit both bets we need something like 30-21. Hence (4/10). NMSt’s point totals this year are deceptive, both on offense and defense.
UPDATE 2…Sketchy Scale (2.5/10)
Bills +8 -108
Both NM St and the Under would have hit with “Just One Fucking Stop.” JOFS may sound like a sabermetriccy, analytical deally. “The Knicks are hitting under 40% on JOFS for the season.” No. It also sounds like it should be plural. Again, no, it is very much a singular event. JOFS is a favorite of Unders and Underdogs. When Oklahoma St is favored by 47 over UAB, at some point, you are going to need JOFS. We didnt get it yesterday. I really like the Bills here. ALL of the money is going on Atlanta and yet the line has gone down from 9.5 to 8. The only slight drag is we didnt get it at the original spread.
UPDATE 3…Sketch Scale (3/10)
Lions @ Vikings -2.5 -108
Pretty normal bet, except we are not only banking on Case Keenum playing well, but doing it for the second week in a row. Veteran journeymen usually are not the most consistent bunch. They sign a deal, get thrown into action, and pull a couple games of Fitzmagic out of their ass here and there to earn another contract somewhere else. Interesting to view the Lions’ mojo after losing in brutal fashion last week.
NCAAF Plays
No justification for these. When I post some winners then I will wax poetic about how deep my insights are.
Pitt +9.5 -103
Boston Coll +34 +100
Mich/Purd Over 51.5 -105
ODU +28 -106
UNLV +41 -104
Houston -6.5 -114
Arkansas St/SMU Under 73.5 -107
Ball St/WKU Over 51 -107
UL Monroe +6.5 -102
Lord of Nationally Televised Broadcasts
There’s sports handicapping, and then there’s handicapping prime-time, nationally televised games. In the first, the sports world is your buffet, it is up to you to pick out a couple of items from dozens of choices. Based on sheer volume, there are going to be lazy lines, or games where info may be difficult to quantify in an algorithm, or public sentiment, or whatever. Not so much, when there is only one or 2 games going on, though. To anyone (including myself) who pops out an overall record, the subsection should be record in games played when the Eye of Sauron is blasting down full force. So sometimes you let others lead the direct attacks on spreads and money lines, while you sneak around to get in on the action. Temple had the #2 pass D last yr in college football. They lose Reddick to the pros, but bring back a decent amount of talent…
Team Total : USF Under 40 -115
