Category: NCAA Football

Wild Card Playoff Preview and Picks

First of all, thanks to the referee/Shane Graham combo below in Wk 4 that hit a FG in OT versus the Browns that was the key Miracle Cover in my Browns Under 5.5 bet (Season review here).  oddly, I really liked the way Mangini and Co. played and the end of the year and profited off of it as well, so it worked for both sides.

Congrats to Alabama, who somehow held on and covered the 3.5-4.5 vs Texas in the BCS Title game.  Lou made a good point……did ANYONE bet on Texas except for alumni and those from the state?  Maybe they major in Cummunications like the Jeron Johnson of Boise State:

Here is video of a crazy ending to the Florida/NC State Hoops this week

BTW, make sure to get your picks into Miracle Covers before Saturday 4:30, we have about 6 people so far.  Here are my picks for the week:

Bengals -2.5 vs Jets

Everyone and their mom loves the Jets, and I am with Simmons that taking a rookie QB on the road is not the best thing, I learned that last year backing up the truck on Matt Ryan in Arizona.  I mean, the Jets do have the better overall team, but if they fall 10-0 on the road in a VERY cold, windy, and hostile Bengals home crowd, I just don’t see it in Sanchez to give them the throws they need to beat Cincy, even as bad as Cincy looked last week.  Plus everyone loading up on the Jets in good pick’em karma, IMO.

Dallas -4 vs Philly

I really don’t want to pick the game.  The thought of having to decide whether to pick a game where my choices of  teams are coached by Andy Reid or Wade Phillips makes me have seizures. Dallas has dominated Philly so far but it is so hard to win 3 times in a row versus another team.  But the Jackson  injury at center for the Eagles I think is a huge loss because he’d been calling the protections for 7 years straight, and now it’s some rookie who also BTW has to block Jay Ratliff.   I don’t like putting money anywhere near a team who is coached by a “Phillips”,  it’s a heart attack waiting to happen, but Dallas has played their best ball going into the playoffs, and that’s what you look for in betting.

NE  -3 vs Baltimore

I’ll be at this one, and I think the Pats can muster up some Foxboro magic despite losing Welker to eek this out at home.  Flacco has played like crap since Green  Bay game and the Ravens and bengals are the only two teams who can NOT take advantage of the Pats shitty secondary because of their equally-as-shitty WR corps.  Belichick usually takes away what you do well, and that’s Ray Rice for the Ravens.  Take him out, and the Pats should win with home cooking behind them and rally around Wes.

Green Bay +1 @ Arizona

Listen to the Bill Simmons’ Playoff preview podcast and Mike Lombardi made some real good points on how you can take away things from a preseason game and a somewhat of a preseason game in Green Bay’s 67-3 total drubbing of the Cardinals in their last 2 ballgames.  Essentially, the Packers can do whatever they want on both lines of scrimmage, meaning Warner might get pressured into some turnovers.  The Packers 3-4 defense scheme matches up well vs what the Cardinals do, Clay Matthews had 6 pressures last week alone.  The Cardinals may not have Boldin either.  Plus I love taking Aaron Rodgers versus a average defense in a dome.  The only thing that worries me about Green Bay: after Minnesota, they have the worst special teams in the playoffs.  That and the “Arizona is an NBA team” factor as like last year when everyone loaded up against them, they are the only team in football history who can turn the switch on and off from F-level team to SB contender.

Week 15 Ramble Drill

We start the week with this mantra I learned from Eric Mangini’s interview with NFL Network this week: “Sometimes punting isn’t always a bad thing” (you know that’s a shot at BB).

Herm Edwards’ advice for Tiger Woods

Thanks to Brian Billick, his adjective for Jay Cutler, “Jeff Georgish”, is now going to be an EXTENSIVE part of my sports vocab on Sundays from now on.  You can even apply it to other things in life, like restaurant reviews: “Heading into an Italian dinner in the North End I was excited, but after having the rubbery pasta, it meal itself was a bit Jeff Georgish.”

Looks like the guys who made the Comcast info descriptions for TV programs don’t try that hard:

At least the Entertainment Division seems to be stepping up it’s game:

Onto NCAA News, congrats to the South Carolina Gamecocks who will face UConn in the PapaJohns.com Bowl, and to the Clemson Tigers who will face the Kentucky Wildcats in the GAYlord Hotels Bowl.  Way to go, fellas!  We’ll keep a close eye on these bowls here at Miracle Covers because quite simply, people who gamble on these games will be the only ones watching them.

Brad Gradkowski blowing out his knee may have saved by Oakland Raiders under season 5.5 bet (they have 4 wins now).  They were playing well under him and even beat Pittsburgh IN Pittsburgh.  Now Oakland has to rely on the Charlie Frye and/or JaMarcus Russell experience.  I think my bet is safe.

If the Cowboys lose the rest of their games in December, I ship my under bet with them as well.  Not out of the realm of possibility.

Here are the picks of the week, I have Jax in a teaser which shipped its end last night if it wasn’t for Peyton Manning, who is a machine.  12-12, 116, 2 Tds in 10 minutes in the 1st half alone last night.  Ridiculious.  I am sure GB will lose by 8 on Sunday.

6 pt Teasers:

Jax +9 vs Colts

GB +7 vs Pittsburgh

and

Denver -7.5 vs Oakland (led by Charlie Frye!)

San Diego -0.5 vs Cincinnati

Dallas/NO Over 52.5

Baltimore -10 vs Chicago (Good thing I got this in on Monday, now at 11)

Week 13 NFL Ramble Drill

Some thoughts on last week:

When this happens in a game, I think that means it’s time for Bobby Bowden to retire.  The play is almost Longest Yard-esque, I wonder if the QB banged his girl or didn’t pay for that lineman’s dinner the night before.

Who would of thought the Miracle of the Year would have came from the CFL?

The Chinese News version on what REALLY happened with Tiger on his adventure of a Thanksgiving.

Ron Artest used to drink at halftime when he was with the Bulls. Thanks to the article on ESPN, I now know that, “Hennessy is a French cognac.”

Last week’s epic Oakland @ Dallas tilt featured both teams having NO turnovers.  I think this is proof that God doesn’t exist.

Here are the lines:

NCAA:

Texas -14 vs Nebraska Big12 Championship

NFL:

Minnesota -3.5 @ Arizona

Detroit @ Cincy Under 42

6pt Teaser

SD -7.5 @ Cleveland

NYG +8.5 vs Dallas

Site Name Change

Van Tran while visiting the site and viewing Lou’s most recent picks

“Lou should change the name to ‘Miracle Covers: Losing at Sports.'”

Pastability, let’s take a look at some things…

It was over the Thanksgiving holiday when I remembered one of my favored forms of NFL gambling, which is to parlay the money line on two or three heavily favored teams.  Unfortunately it seems that Allen Gowin’s bookie does not really do money line bets which is a shame, but here is an idea for Sunday if you have such capabilities.

Cincinnati, Philadelphia, San Diego

With the help of our friends at parlaycalculator.com, you are getting essentially a 2/3 return on bets (one hundred nets you 163 and change).  A couple of thoughts on this.

*  This may seem obvious as this is a bet centered entirely on winning the game and not covering a spread, but you want teams involved where you say to yourself, “I’m not sure on what’s going to happen, but I simply do not see X losing this game.”  Going to the example of this Thanksgiving, Green Bay and Dallas looked very strong to win the game.  Some may at that point may have felt like getting a better return on their money by throwing in a Giant addition, but do you really want to bank on an essentially .500 team on the road against a team with a winning record?  This may wreak of hindsight but whatever.  People might object here that I did not include two heavy home favorites, Minn and Atlanta, in the parlay.  But the problem is I could see the Bears and/or the Bucs winning.  If you don’t, throw the fuckers in, but for me, it doesn’t pass the crucial test.

*  I am not a huge fan of this strategy for college games.  The NFL is crazy enough, but when you add nineteen year old qbs and kickers, football can escalate to a new level of weird.  Just see some of USC’s recent games in the last few years.  However, if you are looking for some recommendations I would stick with proven programs like Boise State (not when they’re 40 pt favorites).  Right now  on television I am watching Pitt/W Va.  How shocking was that a few years ago when Pitt won in West Virginia with W Va playing for the BCS championship?  I would have bet my house on that money line.

Some thoughts on the lines this weekend…

I am not guaranteeing I am putting money on any of these games, just some thoughts.

Clemson and Tennessee only giving up three points to South Carolina and Kentucky respectively seems a bit outrageous to me.  I might have to parlay that.

I do not have any figures in front of me but I bet there is a decent amount of unbiased money going on the Panthers against the Jets.  Carolina is playing very well and 5 Ints are quickly becoming known as “The Dirty Sanchez.”  But I like the Jets this week.  The Jets are giving three points at home to a hot Carolina team, but the Jets have a very solid defense and Jake Delhomme is due to lay an atomic bomb this week after a month of very good football.

WK 12 Quick Picks

NCAA:

Alabama @ Auburn Under 48

NFL:

Indy @ Houston Over 47

Teaser 6pt

Philadelphia -3 vs Washington

Cincy -8 vs Browns

Bets I have right meow

I don’t like to go retro when telling this site about my picks, so I will tell you what I have tonight.  Two parlays, both spicy.

PARLAY NUMBER ONE

Colorado (+17) @ Oklahoma State w/ NFL Game under

PARLAY NUMBER TWO

Carolina (-3) ((-125)) w/ College game over

If I hit one of these parlays I win a little, both and I am da man.  Been drinkin’ since 2 pm.  Love and booze.

Week 9 Quick Picks

Before the picks, here’s my tip of the week: Josh Duhamel, if you are going to cheat on your wife, make sure it’s not with a stripper that works at an Atlanta club called, “Tattletales”, and certainly don’t act like you are susprised that news got out after knowing said strip club name.

It’s almost as bad as the Las Vegas SemiPro special teamer who tackles his own punt returner. “Oh wait, he’s on my own team?  Shit!”

Onto the picks:

NCAA:

South Carolina/Arkansas under 54

NFL:

Philly -3 vs Dallas

Betting against Romo on the road? Yes, plz!

Detroit ML +400 @ Seattle

5 to win 25? Why not?

6 pt Teaser:

ATL -4 vs Redskins

CIN +9 vs BAL

College Football Picks

So Van Tran got me out of bed this morning to talk college football gambling.  And of course this led me to force myself to look at lines and now I am putting 25 “fun units” (dollars) on 3 games.  If I lose I curse Van Tran for dragging me out of bed.  If I win, I’ll let him off with a warning.  The picks are

Central Florida (+34.5) @ Oklahoma

Central Florida is a good program.  Their only three losses are to Southern Miss, East Carolina, and Miami, with two of those on the road.  Back in Vegas last year I would have taken UCF and to cover myself a bit I would have taken the over which is 49.5.  That way the only way you lose both is if Ok wins like 42-0.

Texas A&M @ Colorado (over 57)

I like this because the game is at Colorado, which theoretically means they will be dictating the pace a bit and they have a tendency to be involved in high scoring affairs.  And A&M can put up numbers themselves.

LSU @ Alabama (-7.5)

Only reason I am putting money on this is because it is the game of the week and it will be give me something to entertain myself with while working at City Sports this afternoon.

NFL to follow tomorrow…

Will you complete my teaser?

So I have decided that I want to bet the under on the South Carolina/Tennessee game.  Its around 41 I think.  But I want to tease it and I really do not like any college games too much so I am going to do the game I played two weeks ago where I try to guess the spread on games.  The game where the biggest disparity exists will become Part B for my teaser.  This is prefaced, though, where if i forget or didn’t hear about an injury or something and that affects the line I’ll probably back out of that pick and go with another game.  As always, lines provided by pinnaclesports.com  Real line in bold

Houston @ Buffalo

Right off the bat a game where an injury has major implications.  Johnson is supposedly playing, though.  Im going to make this line Houston -.5 even though I know that line does not happen.  Houston minus 3.5

Browns @ Bears

Browns still a train wreck.  Bears minus 10  Bears minus 13

Seahawks @ Cowboys

Cowboys looked good last week.  Cowboys minus 7.5  Dallas minus 9.5

Rams @ Lions

Wow and yuck.  wuck.  Lions minus 3  Lions minus 4

49ers @ Colts

Not sure how Vegas is feeling with the Alex Smith situation, but Colts minus 11 sounds about right.  Indy minus 12.5

Dolphins @ Jets

Jets minus 3.  This line has to  be either 3 or 3.5  Jets minus 3.5

Giants @ Eagles

Eagles minus 3.5, pretty much the same logic as the Jets game.  Division rivals = home team field goal favorite in most cases. Giants minus 1

Broncos @ Ravens

How much respect is Vegas going to give the Denver 6-0?  That’s the question here.  Ravens minus 1  Ravens miuns 3.5

Jags @ Titans

Now going back a few games you just heard me say that biz about division rivals and field goals and blah blah.  But this game has to be an exception in my eyes.  Jags minus 1.5  Titans minus 3

Raiders @ Chargers

Oakland played well week 1 in this game.  Still, this has to be around San Diego minus 10  San Diego minus 16.5

Panthers @ Cardinals

As I was starting this blog I saw Delhomme is starting this week.  Cardinal D is looking like a legitimate fantasy option.  Cardinals minus 8  Cardinals minus 10

Vikings @ Packers.

Didn’t see the Steeler game last week but it sounded like Favre was gun slinging again at the end.  Packers minus 3  Pack minus 3

Falcons @ Saints

The Falcons have been playing pretty suspect the last couple of weeks.  Might have to bet this game regardless if the line is right.  Saints minus 7.5  Saints minus 10.5

So, according to this I have to bet on Oakland.  I don’t love it, but it’s not that horrible.  The tease will make the Raiders more than a three touchdown underdog.  If they can score two touchdowns against a San Diego defense that has been far from “lights out” this year that should pretty much get things done.  Let’s get back on the Oakland express one more week.

Week 7 Rambling Drill

Didn’t get a chance to catch many games last week thanks to me and my buddy Greg going to that abortion of an effort the Titans put on Sunday in a 59-0 rout by my Pats.  The game, by far, had to be the worst weather I have ever seen a game in.  It, however, was an enjoyable experience.  The highlights included:

Checking out the 3 story Pro Bass and Hunting Shop in Patriot Place before the tailgate was open.  It featured a arcade shooting gallery, a 10 foot fish tank filled with cool looking trout, stripers and bass, sections for both boats AND grills/smokers, as well as a section (in the back, ironically) that sold guns.  I got a chance to hold a 9mm Smith and Wesson Gloc, which weighed as much as my head, which enabled me to live out my dream, even for 5 minutes, to feel like Plaxico Burress.  Except I didn’t shoot myself in the leg; I left that task to LenDale White later in the ballgame (not only did he fumble two handoffs, but also had to be carried off the field with a knee  Maybe its time to get back on the Cuervo train, LenDale).

Our tailgate efforts became an epic fail after about a half hour when the rain started to pick up.  Before then, however, we were talking about how cool it was the constituents of Massachusetts voted on decriminalizing marijuana, and how that could lead to it being legal completely in California.  The guys next to us overheard, and just handed us a free gram of their homegrown to try!

Then we had to get in the car because the hail started to come.  Then the 40 mph winds.  Then it became snow, and the temperature dipped about 20 degrees in 45.9 seconds.  It was like the weather in the Adrian Peterson Nike commercial.  Thank god for satellite radio, beer, and weed to keep us entertained before we got inside.

Then, around 3:30, we headed in.  This was also when the storm was at its worst.  Winds up to 60 mph.  Snow AND sleet pounding our face, as if they were sharp knives thrown by flying ninja monkeys.  Walking into the stadium was an adventure, I got blown down from the wind a few times.  I saw a girl slip and fall on her ass, and watched a couple of under dressed dudes (one with a hole in his shoe) stave off hypothermia by chugging a flask of whiskey on their way into Gillette.  It was awesome and intimidating at the same time.  The only thing left missing in our short adventure of a walk to our seats was a labyrinth, guarded by a Minotaur wearing a John Hannah jersey on throwback day, on the way into the stadium.

Once in the stadium, we felt the best thing to do in this winter wonderland was to get a beverage; nothing says, “freeze my nuts off” more like Margaritas, baby!  Nine bucks a pop is steep, but they were actually quite delicious.  Also delicious were the cheerleaders, dressed up in slutty outfits for Halloween day at the stadium in this horrid weather.  Somewhere, feminists were angry, but seeing a 20-something, with a forced smile, getting paid 46 bucks to wear a Wonder Woman thong-outfit dancing to AC/DC’s, “Thunderstuck” while losing the nerves in her feet, makes me proud as an American.  We both cheered, “Hooray, America!” and happily agreed (at this point, the smiles were frozen on our face) that this is what our fore fathers fought for.

That song is also the exact point of the game the Titans decided to mentally get back on the bus.  I was happy, because this also provided a fantasy freeroll as I have Chris Johnson (who had 104 yds rushing) in my 14-man league, and didn’t have to worry about my selfish monetary conflicts affecting my fandom.  This is why I don’t have Yankees on my fantasy baseball team; and also why I have never cashed in any of my fantasy baseball leagues.

There was one play where the Pats where on their 15th consecutive TD drive (they got 33 first downs!), Keith Bullock had to call timeout at the Titans 5 yard line.  He just put his hands up in the air towards the Titans bench, placed his hands on his hips, and slowly tilted his head down in epic failure.  And it was awesome.

Although on the way home (we left with about 10 minutes left in the 4th), I was listening to the radio call by the Pats play-by-play guys, and have never heard the following from Gil Santos: “Titans on their own 15 yard line, 1st and 10.  Snap, Young hands off to Javon Ringer, and he is……oh my, the poor thing……..just swallowed up at the 13 by 7 Patriots defenders.  This is awful, just horrible.  They really just need to kneel on the ball and pack it in.  The kid doesn’t deserve this, he’s just a rookie.  Sums just the game right there, Geno.”  Geno: “Yup, time for Jeff Fisher to start a drinking habit!” (OK, I made that up, but pretty much implied in that statement).

Although when I got home to thaw out my balls, I had the pleasure of catching NFL Gameday, my new favorite show.  I was pleased to hear Rich Eisen, Deion Sanders, and Coach Mariucci snicker not once, but twice, when Eisen was describing Vikings’ TE Visanthe Shiancoe, “popping out on a valve route” or “dangling around the back of the end zone”.  It also featured thehighlight 3-block play of Louis Murphy on Zach Miller’s TD catch, which pretty much should be shown to every want-to-be football player in America.  Just awesome.

The DeSean Jackson Award of the week goes to Alabama Safety Mark Barron (video around 2:23), who (thanks to going up again inept at times Gamecocks’ coach Steve Spurrier, who should have challenged) threw the ball backwards on one of only 2 TDs in the game (hit the under!).  The video doesn’t show it real well, but on ESPN’s reverse wire camera angle, it is clear he throws the ball backwards at around the 1 yard line.  Why do kids do this?  Is it because the SEC is so nitty on celebrations, that instead of doing a dance, they throw the ball backwards near the goalline?  I’d rather take the penalty and the points!

Roger Goodell wants to not only have the Super Bowl in London, but also a team.  No, no, and no.  Just stupid.  The Brits don’t care, they have commie roundball in form of the Barclay’s Premier League to watch.  No player would want to play there, the road trips would be brutal (imagine a 10-12 hour road trip to San Diego?  What would the line be for the London Tallywhackers, +20?), and the weather is shitty.  If they ever have the Super Bowl in London, just call it the Super Bowel, because that is what it would be.  How about the rotation of New Orleans/San Diego/Miami/Vegas?  So much better destinations!

Onto the picks:

College 6pt Teaser:

LSU -2 vs Auburn

USC -14.5 vs Oregon State

NFL:

Oakland +6.5 vs NY Jets

Oakland, I guess, IS a professional football team!  I have to bet on Louis Murphy’s boys here getting the job done.  The Jets are 1-10 in Oakland, their only win coming in the AFL era under Namath in the 1960’s.  Not only that, they may start to hate their coach, who seems more and more shaky as they lose each week.  Maybe if he didn’t call a team’s gameplan (one that beat him) a “gimmick”, and maybe had a sense of humor like Jeff Fisher, his players wouldn’t be so down on themselves when things start going bad in games.  Plus they have no Kris Jenkins, big day for Fargas and Bush, methinks.  Plus, Sanchez and J.Russell’s combined QB rating will be at around 19.5…..the under is 34.5 (lol).

Indianapolis -13.5 @ St.Louis

It’s in a dome, off a bye week with Freeney getting healthy, and Bob Sanders is back.  And the Colts, unlike the Jaguars, are actually a good football team.  I wonder if Mark Bulger says to Kyle Boller, “Hey, you want a few snaps?  I have to check up on how Peyton is doing on my fantasy team.”

GB -7/-9 @ Cleveland

I got this at -7 before the flu hit Cleveland’s locker room.  Their best player, DT Shawn Rogers, is questionable.  I’d still take the 9….. Green Bay knows it needs to beat up on the creampuffs on its schedule to have any shot of making the division close with Minny, who they play in a few weeks in Lambeau.

6pt teaser of the Week:

KC +11 vs San Diego

NYG -1 vs Arizona