Category: NCAA Football
This and Dap
Want to throw some dap Louis’ way. Back about a month and a half ago Louis proclaimed “Stanford cannot tackle.” He went on to say he would take Oregon whenever the two played. His analysis was spot on. Stanford’s inability to tackle (and Andrew Luck being exposed) was probably the difference in last night’s game. The only reason Louis did not end up putting bills on the bills (duck humor) was because his gf Deepa is a Stanford alum. Great pick.
Follow up dap on that game. A while back I gave a shout out to the web site Pre Snap Read. In Week 1 Oregon loses to LSU. To most football people, that spells the end of the season right there. Paul Myerberg saw differently, starting Sept 16th. I quote…
“Oregon has begun the process of regaining the confidence lost in that prime time defeat. It’s a process: it begins against Nevada, continues against Missouri State and culminates, Oregon hopes, by the time the Ducks travel to Stanford in November…Oregon’s not going anywhere, despite a early stumble, and still clearly controls its own destiny in the quest for a third straight B.C.S. bowl berth.” Brilliant.
Boxing. I did not see a split second of the Pacquiao fight, but does it not seem that boxing, unlike any sport I can think of, bends over backwards to reward the favorite? So many times it seems that officials, refs, umpires, of insert random sport here are attempting to help the underdog. Every time I hear about a decision in boxing, it relates to the favorite squeaking by. This has to have gambling implications.
I took San Diego this week against the Raiders at -7, so a forewarning there. But I am pretty hot this year in my pick against the spread league. I am 18-10 (counting the San Diego game) so from here in I am going to post the picks I make in that league. 3 picks a week. With one burned I will take Seattle +7 and Indy +3. How ugly are those picks?
Two Touchy Home Faves Revisited
Talked last week about the half dozen teams in college that were roughly 2 TD home faves, let’s check out how things went down.
- Akron (1-7) 3 @ Miami OH (3-5) 35
- Louisville (4-4) 38 @ West Virginia (6-2) 35
- Duke (3-5) 14 @ Miami FL (4-4) 49
- Vanderbilt (4-4) 21 @ Florida (4-4) 26
- Texas Tech (5-3) 20 @ Texas (5-2) 52
- Texas A&M (5-3) 25 @ Oklahoma (7-1) 41
We had created two groups. Miami OH, West Virginia, and Oklahoma were teams with clearly better records than their opponent. The second group of teams had very similar records as their opponent, but were much more likely to generate action from the betting public, explaining their large number. Both groups went 2-1 ATS. Conclusion – Nothing to really report. Florida, following a season long pattern, seems particularly overrated. Side Note – Notre Dame didn’t cover as 2 TD road fave.
Two Touchy Home Favorites
We are going to look at a very specific group here, games where the home team is essentially a 2 TD favorite. Everyone is playing opponents from their own conference.
- Akron (1-7) @ Miami OH (3-5)
- Louisville (4-4) @ West Virginia (6-2)
- Duke (3-5) @ Miami FL (4-4)
- Vanderbilt (4-4) @ Florida (4-4)
- Texas Tech (5-3) @ Texas (5-2)
- Texas A&M (5-3) @ Oklahoma (7-1)
Miami OH, West Virginia, and Oklahoma clearly have better records than their opponents. Miami FL, Florida, and Texas have reputations. Can you think of many trios more frequently backed by the betting public? If you can, I bet Notre Dame is involved. As coincidences would have it, ND is also a 2 TD favorite this week…on the road against a team with an identical record of all things. I’ll post the final scores of these games next week.
Game of the Year
The opening line on LSU/Alabama is ‘Bama -4.5. I made a somewhat vague promise to myself that if I was more than a point off in either direction on this line I would bet the game so it looks like I am taking LSU. Couple of boring points about the line…
- It is a night game which definitely adds some value to the home team (‘Bama)
- There are ongoing questions for LSU as to who exactly will be playing/suspended
- LSU’s QB situation cannot be considered fully locked-down
- Vegas is not run by idiots. They know an awful lot of casual sport fans will bet this line thinking, “how the hell do you make the #1 team in the nation more than a field goal ‘dog ever?” Knowing this, they have still made the line 4.5, something that definitely gives one pause
With all that said, I’ll be taking the points…
Pick : LSU +4.5
Gotta Win Game
Sometimes you bet a team simply because they are in a game they essentially have to win or their season is in the crapper. Last week this could be seen in the NFL in the Eagles/Redskins game where if Philly loses they go to 1-5 and for all intents and purposes they are done.
This week, we are going to say this situation exists in the Utah/Cal game. Both have similar records, the difference is that the Cal coach, Jeff Tedford, is on the hot seat. If Cal does not become bowl eligible this year (college speak for 6 wins, Lou), there is a definite chance he’ll be bounced. If you look at the Cal schedule, they pretty much have to win this one. So in a slight twist on the theme, this is a Career Must Win situation in addition to a Season Must Win.
Pick : Cal -3
Game of the Year
Nothing has happened over the last couple weeks to make me want to move the line we originally set on LSU, ALabama. Anything can happen in the SEC in the month before this game, but at this point I still like where we are. If this game was today Vegas might lean towards -3 on this, if LSU struggles AT ALL from here in we will too.
Line as of Oct 11 : LSU @ Alabama (-2.5)
Game of the Year
The annual college football apocalypse game this year looks to be LSU vs. Alabama on Nov 5th. Gonna keep a running tab on the Tigers and Tide throughout October to see where the line of the game would be were the game to be held at that moment. There is every chance that my guess will not budge from this starting point (a pretty dull but realistic thought), but what the hell, let’s see if this is interesting.
Line as of Sept 27th : LSU @ Alabama (-2.5)
College Football Site Recommendation
For anyone looking to be humbled on the subject of college football I would encourage you to stumble upon the site “Pre-Snap Read” It is beyond impressively run by Paul Myerberg who it seems is a college football guru for the New York Times. I am still uncertain how much of his material is subscribed out from freelancers or colleagues. If the answer is little to none I am wowed, definitely worth a check-out.
For the purposes of our site it is especially worthwhile when Paul notes “picks to use as you will” and “lines I’d consider if this was my sort of thing.” I came across a half dozen of those from games last week and he went 5-1 ATS. If I have my act together I will update this post before the games this week and we can see how Pauly makes out.
Maxim Game
I am going to post whenever I see a game where I feel there was a potential precedent set at some point. They will be called Maxim games. The Maxim scenario here involves…
Team A is a very strong team playing at home. Team B is their even more talented opponent. Team B is so strong that Vegas puts them as 5 point favorites despite playing on the road against a very, very good team. The result of the game…Team B beats the hell out of Team A, absolutely destroys them. The game we are concerned with, is the very next week…
Team A then goes on the road to a play a fairly weak Team C. Team C is not horrible but they are definitely mediocre. Vegas makes Team A a 6 pt favorite. The result of the game…Team C beats the hell out of Team A.
Team A was the University of Utah over the last couple weeks. Were they so dejected by their late season home loss to TCU that they had little chance against Notre Dame on the road? Something to keep an eye on. I’ll keep a look out for relevant examples. Points of interest, college not pro game, at #5 Utah had chance to win out and play in huge bowl game
Thursday Links
Lots of inspiration this week…
Follow-ups and excerpts from the Marvin Harrison story.
Jason Fagone also wrote an awesome story on Tim Tebow a few months back.
All these humanizing details tend to take the edge off the fact that Tebow’s entire role-model persona doesn’t work unless he can convey that, fundamentally, he’s better than you: stronger, more capable, more at peace, just basically happier. This is what the people who make fun of Tebow are skewering—his cult of personality. When Obama invited the Gators to the White House earlier this year, the sports blog Deadspin ran a picture of Tebow’s “steely-eyed Manshake” with the president under the cheeky headline our two greatest leaders make a pact to save the world.
But in Gainesville, in close quarters with 52,000 other students, where there’s already a statue of him, seven feet tall, carved from an oak tree—”Tim Treebow”—he’s universally adored. I try to find people to talk shit about him. I fail.
Ichiro! did an extensive interview last week and among other things talked about negativity and not getting fat. He’s probably my favorite active player and it’s not solely because he carries his bats in a briefcase.
A lot of people for a long time have thought that you can’t do this forever. A lot of people were thinking by now Ichiro would be a three hitter, he would be hitting 40 homeruns a year, but you can still do everything you did before. Are you in any way surprised that you are still doing these things and what is your reaction when people say Ichiro is going to move on and become this?
Probably for my style of baseball the key to maintaining it is not to get a gut.
As far as what other people say… The thing is a lot of people who comment about other people, especially people who say negative things about other people, they are not really in positions to be able to evaluate other people in the first place. If we input that information into ourselves more than necessary only negative things will come of that. So it is really about knowing yourself and not being controlled by people who have no value or say. I guess now that we have talked about this I guess you can say that is one key to where I am now is that I have not been swayed by what other people have said.
If you could trade places with anybody in the history of the game for one day who would you like to trade with and why?
(Becomes very animated)
There’s not really a certain who that comes to mind but I think I would like to become a really fat player. (Raucous laughter) Maybe not necessarily fat, but a really, really big player and the reason for that is when I see really, really big players able to perform in baseball I always think to myself how are they able to do that? Because I think to be able to be a good baseball player you have to be able to control your body and for them to have really big bodies and to perform well in this very difficult game of baseball, I am very curious.
Some other people say, ‘You are so small, how come you are able to perform on the baseball field?’ but to me it is only natural because with me I am able to control my movements and my body. For me it is the opposite. Big guys? How are you able to do it? That is a big mystery. (much laughter)
The first half of this Chargers mailbag reads like someone made it up. Actual answer to one of the questions, “I’m going to assume you’re joking. I can’t tell anymore with some of y’all.” Some highlights out of context:
There is a rumor floating around that several Chargers were “partying” .. Saturday night and well into Sunday morning before the game. Can any of this be confirmed?
Regarding Marty, I thought he was just plain stupid. Push come to shove, I take Norv…but I wish he was our offensive coordinator. That is his destiny in life, and that’s ok.
…and Kaeding???The boy can’t seem to handle pressure in the play-offs,that scares me going forward because he’s so darn good in the regular season,how do you justify a switch?I can’t think of a good question,because honestly,I think we’re as good as any team out there,I’m just confused as heck by yesterdays game,GO BOLTS…ALL THE WAY IN ’10…God,I hate baseball season….
I’ll skip this excerpt on this one, but Joe P. telling stories about Buck O’Neil = awesome.
Some NBA action…
Good Josh Smith
And bad Josh Smith (more accurately, why is Jeff Green not in the dunk contest?)
Lastly, here’s a collection of Jack Nicholson enjoying the Lakers this season.
