Category: Hockey
Olympic Hockey Preview
Just scored a free Olympic bet from Bovada for betting (too much) money on the Super Bowl. We had Seattle (like most of America I’d assume) and so did Lou’s dad. The game wasn’t even close, and the oddsmakers were spot on having Peyton Manning throw a pick at -180 to as high as -230 (disclaimer: we took the juice).
We will choose hockey, as I just don’t know enough about Johnny Weir’s figure skating form to make an opinion about that.
I think Canada is the most talented team in the tournament. I just don’t think their goaltending (Price starts, Luongo is backup) is good enough.
Russia will find a way to fuck it up. They always do. Plus, they are properly hedged with the Russian mafia in any order. Ovechkin will probably win Golden Goal.
I will be rooting hard for the USA; we have the best goaltending (Quick, Miller) but unfortunately in these “open” Euro rinks, they lack the skaters on the outside to create opportunities to score. There are also more penalties called in Olympic play, not good for the physical (read: “slower”) teams. Also, I still don’t know why Okposo didn’t make the team.
Sweden is sneaky good. Lundquist won a Gold back in Torino, proving once more that he’s a capable and clutch goalie against all teams not named, “The Boston Bruins”. I’d probably be more bullish if they didn’t lose Franzen.
The Swiss could actually make it out of their group. That’s a good prop bet.
The Czechs have 4 good lines. They also have 2 40 year olds who didn’t play defense in their primes (Nedved, Jagr), nevermind now, skittish goaltending…… and Tomas “Olay” Kaberle. We will be hammering their individual overs. They’ll score goals, though.
I think the Czechs do however make the final 4….and we can then hedge if they do. So Czechs at 10-to-1 it is.
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4:00a
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Canada
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Russia
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Sweden
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USA
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Czech Republic
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Finland
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Switzerland
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Slovakia
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Norway
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Latvia
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Austria
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Slovenia
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Thursday
Nothing doing yesterday but our leaner on the Islanders lost 2-1. Getting plays in early tonight:
NHL: Florida +138 @ Toronto. Adventurous folks can try Montreal +175 @ Boston but I will not be joining you.
NBA: To be confirmed, but likely Cleveland +6 @ the Knicks who I continue to fade.
Wednesday
Mixed day again yesterday for us as Boston was covering at 6.5 for about 30 seconds getting blown out in New York, but Nashville was a winner making hard work out of what should have been a straightforward win. Our leaners in Minnesota and Indiana both won so good for you if you played them.
Nothing doing in the NBA tonight as the Josh Smith reunion was cancelled in Atlanta due to snow/ice/cold/incompetence. Hockey is outdoors again at Yankee Stadium and I am passing but would take the Islanders if forced.
Tuesday
0-0 yesterday and while that’s not terrible, in fact it’s downright breakeven, we can do better.
NHL Nashville +120 @ Winnipeg. Minnesota +180 is an option for those who want to gambooooool, but I am 100% passing.
NBA Celtics +6.5 @ Knicks. Indiana -10 is close at the Lakers but probably a pass. We will see. 10:30 tip there.
Monday
Nothing doing in NBA or NHL. I am dropping college hoops for the rest of the season as I can’t keep up with the number of games without a tool to keep me from running things manually. Also a correction from yesterday, despite jotting down half a unit I played a full 1u on Florida yesterday and was rewarded with a shootout win. Phoenix was a loser in overtime so a slight win or loss depending on how you played it. I despise the shootout in the NHL on sporting grounds, but it’s wonderful for gambling purposes.
See ya’ll tomorrow.
Back from Hiatus
Unannounced and unplanned. We missed a lot of winners as best I can tell. Getting back started with hockey this afternoon/evening:
Florida +140 @ Detroit 1/2u
Phoenix +125 @ Vancouver
Plays 1/24
I say plays but I only have one at the moment, possibly more as the evening progresses.
Capitals/Devils Under 5 -106 @ 13
The Devils (for the most part) do not score or yield a ton of goals. Ovechkin is the only Capital at the moment worth a damn offensively. In other news, I am happy to report that the 6 goal over/under line is an actual thing, there were two the other night. This corresponds with what seems like a slight uptick in goals recently. I am a bit behind but I have been tracking lines for the last month or so and there has been a heavy barrage in what I will call BTOs or Big Time Overs. Those are overs that crush the line. On the days of 1/18, 1/19, and 1/21 ( I was hungover as balls on 1/20) there were 11 BTOs by my standards* and only 2 BTUs (ha! BTUs). One wonders if it has anything to do with this quote…
” The league is screaming for goals and all of a sudden, I don’t know how you can kick it and try to stop at the same time,” Sabres interim head coach Ted Nolan said.
That quote happened after a game where someone had a goal disallowed for kicking it into the net. The only thing we are concerned with is that it seems the NHL, like it has often in the past, is making a concerted effort to increase scoring. Something to think of moving forward maybe.
* Big Time Whatevers are when the final score differs from the line by 1.5 goals or more. As when the line is 5.5 and the final score ends up being either 4-3 (BTO) or 3-0 (BTU).
YTD : -57.79
***UPDATE***
I am not going to touch it but the Thunder/Celts game has moved 3 points in roughly .3 seconds since Durant has been ruled out. This should honestly be a measure of MVP credibility, how much does the line plummet when you are unexpectedly yanked from a lineup hours before a game. It’d be great if for some players like 2014 JR Smith where the line moves backwards.
Sunday
Some more quick notes today. Tampa was a winner for those who followed yesterday 6-3. One play today with a 3pm start is Buffalo +180 @ Washington. NBA has a game to check later and that’s Minnesota who is at San Antonio. Lastly, in the NFL today, Carolina is the side to be on in the early game but I have little interest in fading the 2.5 point line move. Definite pass on SF. I have no opinions on the Denver-SD matchup.
Likely limited service through the beginning of next week.
Thursday
1-0 yesterday as Georgia not only covered but won outright in overtime. Rangers were also a winner in NHL for those playing leans. One notable pass tonight and that’s Minnesota @ Phoenix. My single NHL play tonight is on Detroit +160 @ San Jose. I am 2-7 on plays the last month after a ridiculous start so be forewarned.
In the NBA tonight, I have Miami -8 @ New York. NCAA: Depaul +9 @ Butler and FIU +1.5 @ Rice
UPDATE: I realized after placing the bet that Detroit is in the East now. I will now stare at hockey divisions before I go to sleep the next few nights.
Heres to 2014
Time to get back on the horse. I didn’t touch Wild Card weekend, those games screamed “Who the hell knows” at me. But the water is calling me, let’s jump in.
Capitals @ Lightning over 5.5 -106 @ 12
YTD : $0.00
