Miracle Covers

TNF Thoughts

I’ve been betting TNF pretty heavily this year; smashing both the over and the favorites (esp at home) fairly hard.  I’ve been rewarded with a great ROI as a result (sans the NE-Jets lean; this game is a “rivalry” game along with Saints/Falcons and Washington/Cowboys; the record don’t matter when these teams meet, especially in Foxboro where the Jets play hard).

I don’t have any lean on the teams themselves tonight; both are pretty craptastic (do you know this is the first time both Cincy and Cleveland have faced each other and both teams were over .500 since 1987?).  But what I *love* tnoight is the under (46 at -110).  A few thoughts:

I bet the season under on the Browns (5.5) hoping that Mike Pettine would help bring this team down along with the Johnny Football QB turmoil.  Hoyer has looked OK and the Browns schedule so far has to be the worst in the league.  What I didn’t expect, and Lou mentioned this before the year: the Browns defense is pretty good.  It might even be top-5 good.  They have the 2nd best CB in the game this year in the super duper Joe Haden (#1 is Pat Peterson of the Cardinals; a big reason they are 7-1 right now), a decent front 7 that still has produced despite losing one of the best LBs inthe game in D’Qwell Jackson to the Colts, and Pettine has shown to be an outstanding defensive head coach (as his absence from his last employer, the Jets, has reared its head; they have sucked in the secondary this year.  It doesn’t help their #2 CB is a converted safety).

The Browns offense on the other hand?  Awful.  Just awful.  They have an average professional QB, they change RBs every week, their #1 WR is Miles Austin thanks to Josh Gordon smoking the reef, and they are missing both their #1 TE (Cameron) and one of the best Centers in the game, Alex Mack.  Pettine’s coaching decisions are also pretty wary on this side of the ball, as evidenced here.:

The Bengals, on the other hand, play down to their competition each and every single week.  They have nagging injuries to their #1 RB (Bernard) and #1 WR (Green).  Green is playing tonight, but he’s basically just been a decoy over the last few weeks for guys like Mohammed Sanu.  Cincy’s defense *is* a top 10 defense: but only when healthy.  Vontaze Burfict is one of the best 3 down LBs in the game; he’s also one of its dirtiest, which leans tackling with the crown of your helmet.  He’s had several concussions this year.  The Bengals are also quarterbacked by Andy Dalton, who the crowd was ready to turn on last week when he almost gave the game away to Jacksonville AT home (if only thanks to a Jeremy Hill 155 yard running day).

The weather will also have a 50% chance of rain, 43 degrees, and winds at 10-15 mph.  75% of the money is on the over (at -105).  The loser of this game, especially Cleveland, is out of the playoff hunt.  Therefore it will be played with that grind it out intensity.  It will also be craptastic and low scoring because I can’t think of any other way these two teams play.  I also like the over in punts, whatever that is.

NHL BONUS:

Tonight's #Browns #Bengals game is receiving more bets (54,052) than all 10 NHL games combined (43,899).

— Action Labs (@ActionLabs_HQ) November 7, 2014

Florida +135 (agreed with Lou here!  Do you know they lead the NHL in least allowed 5-on-5 goals?)

Winnipeg +155 (2-1 betting on the other Jets this year.  They face Pittsburgh tonight, a tough task, but who gets up for a game in WINNIPEG?)

Thursday

Both basketball plays were losers yesterday as Denver was not close to winning at all. The system backtested well so we’ll stick with it for the time being. Vancouver, Winnipeg and Florida are on the shortlist for hockey tonight from west to east. Not sure yet which games will end up being plays but I’l try and get them up 30 minutes before gametime.

NFL tonight is Browns at Bungles. I liked Cincy at -6 but not at 6.5 or 7 which is where the line will close. Good luck.

FLORIDA +135 @ Philadelphia

UPDATE Vancouver +120 @ San Jose

Monday

1-0 with our Rams play yesterday and a big swing and a miss not getting in Miami before it moved to -3. It was probably playable there but I was nitty with the line move and missed out on an easy win. Up to a merely below-average 7-8 for -0.15 on the season. Nothing in hockey gain with a solo game tonight that’s already well underway and nothing over the weekend either. NHL is 7-7 +2.45 for the season. No bet on Giants-Colts tonight and we’ll hope for some action tomorrow.