Category: Hockey
MNF
NFL:
Jets vs Dolphins Under 42
My god what a boring game. 62% of O/U bets on the Over
NHL:
Canadiens/Avalanche OVER 5.5 (+115)
Saturday
2-0 yesterday with Sacramento covering. I have a quiet 5 wins in a row in NBA as does Sean with his Celtic overs that are now 6-0. Buffalo won in hockey and Edmonton lost in overtime because I am running bad. Likely nothing in any sports other than amateur tackle football. I’ll try an update before the evening games but here is what we have so far:
Syracuse +12 @ Boston College
North Texas +5 @ UTSA
Connecticut +21.5 @ Memphis
UPDATE: Syracuse and UNT were both losers. Wake Forest +17 @ Duke
Hockey: New Jersey +155 @ Islanders
Thanksgiving Wednesday
Not the best Tuesday for us as our shitty hockey plays as I termed them on Twitter went 1-2 with our respective teams opening at 1-3, 0-3 and 0-3, with Colorado, the team that won for us, conceding on an impressive 8 shots. Not to be outdone, Edmonton conspired to give up a goal from centre ice in their 3-2 loss. Colorado beat Arinix 4-3 in overtime and because it seems like the Coyotes are constantly leading after two periods before setting the game on fire I pulled the following chart together:
| TEAM | POINTS | 3RD PERIOD GD |
| COLUMBUS | 14 | -18 |
| DALLAS | 22 | -15 |
| BUFFALO | 14 | -15 |
| ARIZONA | 21 | -10 |
| WASHINGTON | 21 | -7 |
| PHILADELPHIA | 19 | -5 |
| SAN JOSE | 24 | -4 |
| NEW JERSEY | 21 | -4 |
| CAROLINA | 15 | -4 |
| WINNIPEG | 25 | -2 |
| MINNESOTA | 24 | -2 |
| EDMONTON | 14 | -2 |
| ST LOUIS | 30 | -1 |
| PITTSBURGH | 30 | -1 |
| FLORIDA | 20 | 0 |
| ANAHEIM | 33 | 1 |
| DETROIT | 27 | 1 |
| BOSTON | 27 | 1 |
| NY ISLANDERS | 30 | 2 |
| NY RANGERS | 22 | 2 |
| TORONTO | 24 | 5 |
| COLORADO | 21 | 5 |
| TAMPA BAY | 30 | 6 |
| LOS ANGELES | 27 | 6 |
| NASHVILLE | 30 | 7 |
| OTTAWA | 24 | 7 |
| VANCOUVER | 31 | 8 |
| MONTREAL | 33 | 9 |
| CHICAGO | 25 | 12 |
| CALGARY | 28 | 18 |
In the ‘no shit’ category of analysis, the teams at the top end of this table are worse than those at the bottom, but this explains a good chunk of the underperformance of Dallas, Columbus and Phoenix and the hot start of the Canadian trio of Calgary, Vancouver and Montreal all of whom seem to be playing slightly below or above their talent levels would suggest. The best teams should be only slightly and not extremely positive as they hopefully have lots of leads they have successfully defended.
NBA because I’m an idiot:
New York +14 @ Dallas
Indiana +13 @ San Antonio
Waiting on the line on the two NHL games I am interested in. Will get an update here pretty quickly
UPDATE: Hopefully we’ll go 1-1. Let it be noted I am betting on Buffalo. No time to wait around for the Philly line to move to 155.
Winnipeg @ Buffalo +140
Philadelphia +150 @ Detroit
Tuesday
Another loser in hockey last night has our losing streak at 3. Still in positive territory for the season along with NFL with NBA the only negative for now. Several hockey options this evening which look ugly so we’ll see how it turns out. I am going to wait a bit closer to gametime on all of them before posting.
Game 1: Edmonton +161 @ Dallas
Game 2: Colorado +110 @ Phoenix It would be fitting if Phoenix wins tonight after we backed them in their past few losses
Game 3: Calgary +155 @ Anaheim I hate this and I’m playing it anyway
MNH?
We should have two competitive but shitty football games tonight as Sean previewed below. I don’t think either are bettable in the slightest, but reasonable minds may differ. 1-0 for a near push for anyone following me yesterday as Minnesota hung around all game to cover but not win against Green Bay.
Instead of watching mediocre football tonight, please consider Penguins @ Bruins or Flyers @ Islanders. I can also recommend a punt of the inferior Senators +135 @ Detroit. Betting on Ottawa is equivalent to betting on the Rams, ultimately profitable but generally depressing to watch.
The rest of the week looks light with Thanksgiving but I should be able to keep up to date here.
Saturday
Islanders and Bruins were both winners in a shootout last night. Two plays to add to Stanford so far today:
Maryland +6 @ Michigan
NHL St. Louis @ Ottawa +130
There should be an update around 6
UPDATE: Carolina +130 @ Colorado
Florida Atlantic +7 @ Middle Tennessee St
Friday
Arizona/Phoenix was a loser in Dallas yesterday 3-1. Just like at times last season, the Coyotes would play a solid 1st two period and then fail to turn up for the 3rd, just like a pub soccer team would if you told them there were three halves. I did take the opportunity to tweak some of my systems over the past 24 hours so hopefully some better results await. Two games of note this evening. First we have a play on the co-official team of Miracle Covers this season, Islanders +150 @ Pittsburgh. We are also close on Boston -125 @ Columbus but it’s ultimately going to be a pass.
Also an early amateur tackle football play for tomorrow, Stanford -5.5 @ Cal. The line is currently 6 at most places.
Thursday
How the f— is it Thursday already? 1-1 in hockey yesterday for a breakeven or small loss depending on how you weighted the plays. Vancouver struggled behind some shaky defense and goaltending in a game they should have won easily, and Philly lost getting yelled at by their GM after the game. “That’s [bleeping] embarrassing! Jesus [bleeping] Christ!” said Ron Hextall. Interestingly, we are 6-0 betting favorites this season which is a meaningless tout-like stat I can get behind.
Also, another winner in NBA last night after an atrocious start as the Clippers won easily in Orlando.
Not much on the agenda for this evening. Full slate of hockey but not much that is appealing. The best game is Phoenix +135 or +140 at Dallas. Dallas is actually this year’s version of the Islanders playing very little defense with not enough goaltending and occasionally some offense to go with it. Problematically they’ve lost eight in a row at home and longtime followers know we like to bet against winning teams and on losing ones whenever possible. Phoenix is an underwhelming team whose goalie has been outplayed by his backup to date. 830 start so I will think on it and then update if there is a play.
UPDATE: Fcck it Arizona +140 @ Dallas
Also, we have a lean on a total, Carolina @ Los Angeles UNDER 5
Wednesday
Two hockey games both nationally televised tonight and we are taking action on both of the away teams. Philadelphia +140 visits the Rangers in a bit and Vancouver -130 is at Edmonton in the late game. Both lines may move so I am getting action in now. NBA because I’m an idiot is Clippers -5 @ Orlando.
Penguins were an easy 4-0 winner yesterday but Umass lost handily. I’m going to try and do college football the rest of the year and likely again next season. Totals will probably be rare.
Tuesday
NBA and NFL were both winners yesterday but Scotland lost disappointing millions of countrymen in a meaningless friendly 3-1. Tampa smushed the Rangers 5-1 so a good pass on our part there. Full slate of hockey tonight but there is not very much I like this evening, though I can’t pass up the chance to fade Montreal and back a good team for once. Pittsburgh -125 @ Montreal is the only play this evening.
Also an amateur tackle football play, Umass +9 @ Akron. I’ll likely continue with amateur football for the rest of the season but will definitely be giving amateur basketball a pass.
