Category: Basketball
Jan 7
Our single play on the Sharks last night was a winner, 4-3 in overtime. Some confirmed action early tonight:
Boston +130 @ Pittsburgh
Washington @ Toronto UNDER 5.5
NBA because I’m an idiot Houston -6 @ Cleveland
Potentially adding the Caps straight up at -125 or so, Red Wings and Pacers
UPDATE 1: Washington -125 @ Toronto. Indiana +11.5 @ Golden State
Tuesday
We had a 2-1 day in both hockey and tackle football as our early plays were all winners and the late games were not close. Again with the unorthodox scheduling today so getting the early game up now while I have some time:
Notre Dame +8
We have leans on both of the other underdogs today, Louisville and Maryland, though no idea whether they will be plays or not.
UPDATE: Passing on Louisville/UGA and firmly on the fence for Maryland tonight. Two confirmed plays in other sports. NHL Kings/Oilers UNDER 5 +120 and NBA because I’m an idiot Cleveland +4.5 @ Atlanta (now down to +4).
Saturday
2-1 in our Boxing Day action with no close calls to speak of. Forging ahead with a full schedule today. Will likely update with hockey and basketball tonight:
Va Tech +2.5 -110
Duke +7.5 -106
South Carolina +3.5 -111 2u
Penn State +3 -105
Nebraska +7 +100
NHL: Detroit -129 @ Ottawa
Dallas is an option for those feeling adventurous but barring some significant line move I will be passing.
UPDATE: NBA Atlanta -4 @ Milwaukee
I attended Milwaukee @ Atlanta last night where the Hawks were favored by 8 or 9 and promptly lost by 30. Kyle Korver was reduced to shooting layups from 2 feet during timeouts to prove to himself he was able to get the orange ball through the orange rim. Playing Atlanta tonight because it would be very NBA-like for them to cover last night’s spread tonight instead.
UPDATE 2: San Jose +130 for 1/2u
Sunday
Our NHL streak continued yesterday with a 2-1 evening and we’re now up to 10 in a row ending in a shootout loss or win. Bowl games were 1-3 and the late NBA game pushed/lost. I am slow getting together here with NFL this morning. Lots of potential plays coming off the board and I missed out on Washington yesterday by forgetting which day the game was being played. One confirmed play so far Detroit/Chicago OVER 43.5
UPDATE: Sticking with the Bears along with no one in America. Bears +10 -115, +375 to win outright
Let’s add Tampa +11.5 -105
UPDATE 2: Not the best afternoon. Some NBA because I’m an idiot: Detroit +2.5, +115 @ Brooklyn
NFL Sunday
Unlike Pat, I’m probably taking a single game and the line has since moved. Green Bay @ Buffalo +4 -115. Other leans this morning are Tampa, Kansas City, Washington and Miami. I will happily take Miami if it hits 10 but otherwise this and the other games are probably a pass. Will post any updates.
UPDATE: Bills easily covered the 4. Leans went 2-2. NBA because I’m an idiot Spurs -4
Friday
Our busy day yesterday finished 1-3. The slog through this hockey season continues. NBA because I’m an idiot: Portland +2.5 @ Chicago.
Monday
We lost our play on Cleveland yesterday as they covered but lost by one. One leans were mixed as is standard and the perfect example of why they aren’t plays. Nothing useful regarding the Falcons game tonight other than the usual note that it’s extremely difficult to make money betting on double digit favorites, no matter how attractive they may seem. Three games in hockey tonight; Penguins were looking possible but aren’t anymore with the latest line movement. If you squint, you can find a play on Florida by continuing to fade St. Louis but I am passing on that as well.
I did get in an early college football play which is very unlike me, Army/Navy UNDER 61. It’s already down to 59.5 so yay to that. One NBA play because I’m an idiot: Phoenix +7.5 @ Clippers. Celtics O/U is 204.5. I would assume all the value in blindly taking the overs has been sucked out at this point but what do I know.
Good luck today
NFL Week 14
NFL:
TB +10 (EVEN)
Started at -115. According to Chad Millman, the sharps love this one and so do I as I love betting against Jim Caldwell coached teams. Reggie Bush returns today, but he’ll get hurt in the 3rd quarter. Tampa is also 3-1 vs the spread in its last 4 games. The Lions will probably win by 3, but if you wanna take a flyer on the TB ML at +375, it’s not a bad play.
NO -10 (+110)
I hate taking the Saints, but they are at home and Carolina’s really banged up……especially Cam Newton, who probably shouldn’t be playing, and only is because the leader of the craptastic NFC South division is *2* games under .500.
IND at CLE Under 50
Way too high. Indy’s defense blows, but so does Cleveland’s offense. For those wondering why Johnny Manizel isn’t starting today, this maybe why: Jonathan Paul Manziel, born December 6, 1992 (which in that case, good decision Coach Pettine!).
MIN -4
Vikings playing well at the end of the year, and the Jets can’t throw the ball. This line probably should be 4.5 to 5.5.
SF – 9 (-105)
Hedge for our under bet. Also going to throw the ML (-450) in a parlay. SF’s last 4 games: at OAK, at SEA, SD, ARI. Seattle is probably the one loss that actually happens to ship our bet.
PARLAY (+700):
SF -450
MIN -4
SEA at PHI Over 47
IND at CLE Under 50
TEASER (+240):
NO -10
SF -9
TB+10
NBA BONUS:
Washington at Celtics Over 205 (-105). 8-0 so far with these. The OVER has hit in 16 of Boston’s last 21 games, and 12 out of 15 at home.
Celtics Over Wednesday
Celtics playing a back-to-back, but they hit the over in ATL (211) on Tuesday (where the under has hit 11/16; the over mostly hit due to a 40 pt 1Q by the Celtics; in a sense, this over hitting was fluky). They of course blew a 20 point lead, which they’ve been doing all year. I didn’t take it because I want to make sure when I bet these, that they are “slam dunks” (and I have a calculation that helps me with this; I just take the last 5 games home v away and figure out the standard deviance). In my 7-0 mark on these, the over not only hit….it hit over by an average of 8.5 pts (which is alot for NBA standards).
The O/U is 203 tonight against the woeful Pistons, but that is under my base “number” of 204. The Pistons are also one of the worst defenses in the league, so that means Jeff Green will have a big night (he also did well vs ATL yesterday) and the Celtics can easily hit 110-120 here.
Also, as an NFL side note: I took Seattle 11.2 to win the NFC. My thinking: they either a) win home field and become NFC champ or B) play the Packers in that game, and then I can take the Packers in a hedge. The only threat to these two teams is San Francisco; who despite their awful offense is super talented and can always go on a run. But they won’t be doing that scoring less than 14 pts/game.
