Category: Basketball
St Patrick’s Picks
Ah yes, the start of the NCAA Tournament; by far my favorite betting time during the year. The first 2 rounds are by far some of the best, most exciting sports around (even if the NCAA exploits the shit out of these athletes).
I also love betting the round of 68; I’ve actually batted over 60% on these games over the years they’ve gone on. I love the fact I’ll be betting on games that no one will be watching.
Manhattan -9
TEASER: Manhattan -9 and Ole Miss +4
I’ll also be placing 2 units each on some type of total, line, or ML for every game of the 1st Round. I’ll also highlight some of my likes that I’ll be betting stronger on as well. Those picks start on Thursday.
Happy drinking.
Paddys
Lots of random drunkenness today making me long for days of zero responsibility…
Likely nothing doing again in hockey tonight, but one trend that I want to point out that we missed at this point due to sheer ignorance. The NIT has become the home of experimental rules changes in college basketball and they’ve made a substantial one this year, changing the shot clock from 35 seconds to 30. This seems a nominal change, but the totals for NIT games are all up 6-15 points from their openers. People are just laying into books for obscene amounts though the value is now gone and the lines are probably overadjusted at this point to stem the tide.
There should be an expected 8-12 extra possessions a game because of the change, which at a point per possession would account for the line adjustments. Something to keep in mind for future seasons and tournaments at the very least.
The lines for region winners and on Kentucky to win look pretty correct to me, but I’m far from a college hoops expert. Best I can see that’s not a longshot is Villanova at or around 2:1 in the east.
Valentine’s Day Plays
Looking for some skrilla to pay for that fancy dinner you got stuck in traffic for because it’s been snowing for 20 days straight? Hopefully these plays will help pay for your evening out with that someone special tonight.
NHL:
Jumping on Lou’s suggestion: Toronto +195. Kessel’s demotion to the 4th line can only be good for the Leafs.
UFC:
Benson Henderson vs Thatch Fight Goes the Distance +115
I can’t believe this is giving odds. Henderson’s fights 4/5ths of the time go the distance (like his last one in Boston 1 month ago). It will be a boring fight, as Mike Tirico would like to say, “score only”.
Bonus:
Mason Plumlee wins Slum Dunk Contest +900
Because when else are you gonna be able to bet on a white guy, who went to Duke, to win a Slam Dunk Contest in your life? He plays on Brooklyn and the event is in Brooklyn, so you never know.
February 11
We finished our second consecutive Dallas game again a winner against Boston yesterday in one of the stranger games I’ve watched in a while. Dallas scored two shorthanded goals and were easily outshot in a 5-3 win. Two NBA plays tonight to have some action as there’s nothing remotely interesting in NHL, Knicks +5.5 @ Orlando and Utah +4.5 @ Dallas
February 5
Orlando was a winner last night in Jacque Vaughn’s last game as coach. They lost by 7. Absolutely nothing at all doing tonight in NHL in one of the more garbage evenings for a full slate of games that I can remember of late. Some other action to keep things rolling over:
College Hoops
Helen of Troy +4.5
Pat’s Fairfield +9.5
I’m also getting some small action down on the rugby six nations tournament which starts soonish. This is to win the round-robin:
Wales +283
Scotland +1862
Hopefully better action tomorrow.
February 4
A sloppy 0-1 here yesterday as not only did we lose the coinflip on Ottawa 2-1, but also missed an easy winner in Phoenix. I wish I had more time to properly analyze yesterday but sometimes real life and gambling do not mix. Nothing doing in any of the three NHL games tonight. One NBA game for some fun units – Orlando +13.5
January 28
I continued to prove why I should stick to hockey yesterday as Minnesota was a 2-1 winner as was Anaheim who won 4-0. An apology is owed as I spent the snow day drinking and didn’t get Anaheim up and posted before gametime or at all. The other two leaners were one goal losers. Basketball lost by a half point and Nishikori was a straight-up loser.
Two hockey options this evening and neither has started yet! First, Pittsburgh +105 @ Washington is a go for 1/2u and in the late game, the Kings are an option. L.A. will likely be a pass but I’ll update if that changes. 46-48-1 +8.04 for the season to date
NBA because I’m an idiot: Brooklyn +14
January 27
Digging out from a snow day here in the northeast. Milwaukee was a giant loser yesterday and Nishikori is still to play this evening. Wawrinka may be nursing an injury hence the play on Kei though it would be a coinflip anyway given recent form. Nishikori is up to -140 at some books.
Hockey is back though the betting options look a bit sparse. I took 1/2u on Minnesota last night at the open at -130 and that turned out to be a good idea as the Wild re up to -155 or -160 away to Edmonton tonight. Florida, Colorado and Anaheim make up the rest of the options for this evening, none of which are confirmed. Updates in a few hours per usual.
Lastly, our college hoops play tonight is Northern Illinois +9.5
January 26
Preparing to get snowed in…
UW-Milwaukee +13 -105
Also some tennis for tomorrow:
Nishikori -122 vs Wawrinka
NBA Sunday
Celtics/Golden State Over 213 (9-1 with Celtics Overs this season)
Also will put that in a teaser with Houston -8 at the Lakers.
Thanks Anthony Johnson, who shipped me a +220 dog yesterday in UFC, for allowing me to speculate wildly on NBA.
