Category: Basketball
NCAA Saturday
UConn +8
UVA/Butler Under 131
TEASER: Duke -6.5 and Arkansas Little Rock +6.5
NBA Special: Golden State +3 (they have been an underdog twice this year, and are 2-0 ATS).
UFC BONUS: Mark Hunt -140
NCAA Friday
Holy Cross +23
Stephen F. Austin +7.5
Hawaii +5 and ML +170
TEASER: IOWA -7 and Holy Cross +23
Holy Cross: Paying the Rent for over 15 Years
Went 2-1 last night (1-1 on here and took Wichita St -3 EVEN 2H) so good start so far in this tourney.
Onto my big play for tonight:
Holy Cross +2.5 (now +3) vs Southern U in a battle of 16 seeds. Also taking the ML at +120.
Holy Cross has a big linkage to my sports betting history. Actually, it was them (and the 2002 Tampa Bay Bucs) that helped pay a even more broke-than-usual unemployed Sean pay rent in 2002 when they covered a +22 spread as a #16 seed vs Kansas, and actually leading for most of the game until they ran out of gas.
In 2001 as a #2 seed, they covered vs Kentucky in a pretty exciting game, as well as vs a Dwayne Wade led Marquette in 2003. Even when they didn’t cover vs Southern Illinois, they still chopped the 10 point spread losing 61-51.
Holy Cross, a Catholic school based out of Worcester, has a rich basketball history. Celtics greats’ Tommy Heinsohn and Bob Cousy went there. Bill Simmons is an alum. Old coach Ralph Willard (who coached the 2001-2005 teams above) is considered one of the best coaches in the Patriot League’s history and it up there in all time D1 NCAA wins. And this team is no exception; despite being the 9th seed in their tournament, they ran the table and beat #1 Lehigh in their own building despite being a +10 point underdog (which I of course took; I wish Bovada also offered the ML which other online books had at +2800!). I am 4-0-1 taking this team in its history; I might as well keep firing on them until it breaks.
I fully expect them to win tonight, and then cover vs Oregon in the next game. I mean, they have the power of Jesus behind them. And if anyone out there loves a miracle (cover), it would be Jesus fucking Christ.
I’ll be posting my tournament picks b/t here and on my twitter feed, @Seanismoney. The picks will come on fast and furious like a 3-on-2 fast break. This might be the year a #16 seed wins as I find that two of the #1’s, Virginia and Kansas (who has a history of choking in this tournament despite great teams), are overrated….and this is Oregon’s first time as a #1, so it will be interesting to see how they handle it. For those wondering:
Odds for lower seeds to win at least one game (via 5Dimes)
16-seed: +1125
15-seed: +243
14-seed: -105
13-seed: -155
12-seed: -155— Action Labs (@ActionLabs_HQ) March 16, 2016
Also taking Michigan -2
It’s That Time of Year
To (hopefully not) lose money!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dhC5-uIJJWQ
For my tournament bracket winner, I pick UNC. They have been the most consistent all year, have some really great young NBA-level talent, and the only other threat in their bracket is Kentucky. Also, I have a sneaky suspicion head coach Roy Williams is done soon, due to continued bouts of vertigo that make him fall to a knee on the sideline, as well as he’s been doing this shit for a long ass time. This may galvanize the team for a deep run.
As for a dark horse to win it all: UCONN at +5000. UCONN to win the South Region at +1600 is not a bad shout, either. Brima, Hamilton are NBA level talents, Kevin Ollie is a good coach (who never ages), and they have a history of doing well in this tournament and drew the weakest bracket in the South.
Finally, before the picks tonight, here is the Bill Raftery Drinking Game for those of you at home:
Florida Gulf Coast -5.5 (-110)
Vanderbilt/Wichita State Over 134 (-110)
Back, Bitches
I expect my initial plays, as I relearn how to ride this bicycle, to be shaky and inept. But in time, and with the grace of the gambling gods, we will make money. Initial Bank = 1,000 Units
Wizards ML -113 @ 14
Wizards/Bulls Under 213 -108 @ 14
Current Bank 1,000 Units
UFC and NBA Friday Night
UFC:
Barboza vs Ferguson: “No, fight does not go to distance” at -130. With the shorter cage at The Chelsea in the Cosmopolitan, and the explosive power these guys have, it won’t last long IMO.
I also like Lauzon v Dunham “No, fight does not to go distance” at +120, and Edgar by decision at +110 (I think him and Chad cancel each other out, even with the cage).
NBA:
Celtics +5.5
Celtics ML +180
TEASER: Celtics +5.5 and Over 215
I think the Celtics keep it close tonight, and even possibly win. They are relatively healthy (minus Smart), and have won two in a row. They actually are second in the league, behind the Warriors, in points win margin per game. Also, the ESPN probability indicator claims that GSW has a 68% of a chance to win tonight, and that is the lowest probability they have for the rest of 2015 (the rest is over 75%). Klay Thompson is also banged up with a sprained ankle. If there is any night they lose with the rest of the schedule in 2015; it is probably this one.
I bet every Irish donk in Vegas for the McGregor fight is taking the Celtics tonight at +5.5
Degen Friday
NBA:
BOS v ATL Over 207 (-115)
NHL:
COL v PIT Over 5.5 (+115)
BTW, we missed an under bet in Bosnia v Ireland today:
Looks like i missed an under bet pic.twitter.com/mzetm5uHjz
— Sean ♠️ (@Seanismoney) November 13, 2015